Friday 11-21 Service Plays

2008-11-21T06:35:00-08:00

Wunderdog

Buffalo at Bowling Green
Pick: Buffalo +3.5

Buffalo may be better than even their 6-4 record would indicate. Their four losses have come to Missouri, Pittsburgh, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. They have yet to lose to a team from the MAC East. They are playing their best football of the season, and this game vs. Bowling Green, and the finale vs. Kent State are both winnable games. You can bet they are pumped up for their last two, as the Bulls have never been to a Bowl game in the school’s history! QB Drew Wiley has been outstanding, passing for 2,398 yards 18 TD’s vs. just four INT’s. Running back James Starks is healthy again, and has produced 1,028 yards and 11 TD’s, so the Bulls have great balance. The Falcons have been very inconsistent, as they have losses to E. Michigan at home, and also dropped a game to Miami, Ohio at home. They are just 5-5, and have not had to play any of the top teams from the West. Tyler Sheehan has moved the team in the air, but the Falcons don’t have a running game, as their top gainer on land has less than 400 yards rushing. Buffalo is the better team, and has more balance and better weapons in this one. They are 8-1 ATS since last season coming off a win as they are here. And, under head coach Turner Gill, this Buffalo team is 18-8 ATS as an underdog. I’ll back the Bulls as a live dog here.

Thursday 11-20 Service Plays

2008-11-20T06:31:35-08:00

SPORTS ADVISORS

Pittsburgh (7-3, 4-6 ATS) at Cincinnati (1-8-1, 4-6 ATS)

The Steelers, hoping to regain their early-season form in a third straight home game, take on the lowly Bengals in an AFC North contest at Heinz Field.

Pittsburgh got a field goal in the final seconds last week to beat San Diego 11-10 as a 4Â½-point home chalk, failing to cover after a fumble-return TD was controversially waived off on the Chargersâ€™ ensuring series as time ran out. QB Ben Roethlisberger (31 of 41, 308 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) led a turnover-free offense that nearly doubled San Diego in total yards (410-218), but the Steelers failed to find the end zone, scoring on three field goals and a safety.

Prior to last week, the SU winner had cashed in five straight Pittsburgh games.

Cincinnati came off its bye and forged a 13-13 tie with Philadelphia on Sunday, cashing as a heavy 9Â½-point home pup for its second consecutive spread-cover. The Bengals scored just three points in the second half and were outgained 391-282 overall, but they picked off Eagles QB Donovan McNabb three times en route to a 4-1 edge in turnovers, helping them stay in the game.

The Steelers field the leagueâ€™s leading defense in total yards allowed (238.1 per game), passing yards (169.2) and rushing yards (68.9), and they are second in points allowed (15.0). The Bengals, meanwhile, are giving up 24.9 ppg (24th) while averaging a paltry 13.8 ppg on offense, rating 31st, above only the reeling Raiders.

Pittsburgh is on a 4-0 SU and ATS surge in this rivalry, including a 38-10 blitzing a month ago laying nine points on the road. In fact, the road team has gone 7-1 ATS in the last eight series clashes. Also, the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

The Steelers are on a 1-3 ATS skid overall and are on additional pointspread slides of 0-4 at Heinz Field, 1-5 in November contests and 2-6 on grass. The Bengals are on ATS declines of 1-6 against the AFC, 2-8 after a spread-cover and 2-6 inside the division, but they carry positive ATS trends of 16-5-1 in November and 11-5 on the road against teams with a winning home record.

The over for Pittsburgh is on runs of 44-16-2 at home, 8-2 against AFC foes and 5-2 in division play, and in this rivalry, the over is on a 5-1 stretch at Heinz Field. Finally, last monthâ€™s meeting in Cincinnati flew over the posted price of 36Â½.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

(23) Miami, Fla. (7-3, 5-4 ATS) at Georgia Tech (7-3, 5-2-1 ATS)

Miami, seeking its sixth straight victory, travels to Atlanta for a key ACC Coastal Division showdown against Georgia Tech.

The Hurricanes held off Virginia Tech 16-14 last Thursday night for their fifth consecutive victory, but they failed to cover as a four-point home chalk, halting a three-game ATS run. It was a defensive battle throughout, with Virginia Tech narrowly outgaining Miami 250-247 overall, but the â€˜Canes pulled away from a 7-7 halftime tie with three second-half field goals before the Hokies got a late touchdown. QB Robert Marve (7 of 16, 121 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was unimpressive, but Miami did finish with a 123-77 edge in rushing yards.

The Yellow Jackets tumbled to North Carolina 28-7 two weekends ago as a 5Â½-point road pup, falling to 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in their last three starts. Georgia Tech rolled up a whopping 326 yards rushing (6.0 ypc) and finished with a 423-314 edge in total yards, but lost the turnover battle 3-0 in falling behind 21-0. RB Jonathan Dwyer (22 carries, 157 yards) paced the Jackets, scoring on an 85-yard TD run in the fourth quarter.

Miamiâ€™s defense is among the top 15 in the country in total yards allowed (279.8 per game, 9th), rushing yards allowed (103.2, 13th) and passing yards allowed (176.6, 15th). However, Georgia Tech ranks eighth nationally in rushing (250.7 ypg) and 17th in yards per carry (5.1).

Georgia Tech has won and covered the last three in this rivalry, including a 17-14 road win catching two points last year, and the road team is on a 4-1 ATS uptick in the last five meetings between these two.

With the non-cover against Virginia Tech, the Hurricanes are now on a 7-16-1 ATS slide in ACC play, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 5-0 overall on the highway and 4-0 in roadies against teams with a winning home record. The Yellow Jackets are on ATS surges of 5-2-1 overall, 4-1-1 after a SU loss and 14-6-1 after a non-cover, but they are in ATS ruts of 2-5-1 at home, 1-7 coming off a bye, 1-4 on Thursday and 2-5-1 against winning teams.

The under for Miami is on streaks of 45-22 overall, 9-2 on Thursday, 4-1 on grass and 20-6 in November, and the under for Georgia Tech is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 5-0 after a bye, 6-1 in the ACC and 15-4 on Thursday. Finally, four of the past five clashes in this rivalry have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Southern Illinois (2-0, 1-0 ATS) vs. (10) Duke (3-0, 1-2 ATS)

(at New York)

Duke returns to the court for the first time since surviving a scare at home against Rhode Island on Sunday when it meets Southern Illinois in the opening round of the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic at Madison Square Garden.

The Blue Devils needed to make four free throws in the waning moments to rally past Rhode Island 82-79, coming up way short as a 25Â½-point home favorite. The Blue Devils shot 45.5 percent from the field, missing 13 of 17 tries from the three-point line, while allowing Rhode Island to make 54.7 percent of its shots (10-for-14 from long range). But they won the game at the charity stripe, going 28-for-32 on foul shots compared with 11-for-16 for the Rams.

Duke, which has scored at least 80 points in all three of its contests, has failed to cash in five of its last six games going back to last yearâ€™s ACC Tournament, and the Blue Devils are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 lined outings (all as a favorite).

Southern Illinois opened the season last week with home victories on consecutive days, knocking off California (Pennsylvania) 66-52 in a non-lined contest and topping UMass 80-73 as a five-point chalk. The SU winner is 31-3-1 ATS in Southern Illinois games going back to the beginning of last season.

The Salukis are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games, going 11-6-1 ATS in lined contests during this stretch. Theyâ€™re also 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral-site affairs and 5-2 ATS in their last seven after a SU victory. Meanwhile, in addition to its ongoing 3-10-1 ATS funk, Duke is in the midst of pointspread downturns of 7-20 at neutral sites, 1-4 in non-conference play and 2-8-1 after a SU win.

For Southern Illinois, the under is on streaks of 12-5-1 in non-conference play, 19-7 at neutral sites, 5-0 on Thursdays and 45-22 following a spread-cover. Also, Duke sports â€œunderâ€? runs of 8-1 overall, 7-0 at neutral sites and 36-17 in non-league action.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTHERN ILLINOIS and UNDER

Michigan (2-0, 1-0 ATS) vs. (4) UCLA (2-0, 0-2 ATS)

(at New York)

Michigan and UCLA get together for a non-conference clash for the seventh straight season, this time at Madison Square Garden in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic.

The Wolverines, who are coming off an ugly 10-22 season (11-19 ATS) in coach John Beileinâ€™s first campaign, opened this year with a pair of 20-plus-point routs of Michigan Tech (77-55) and Northeastern (76-56) on Nov. 11 and 12, cashing as a six-point home chalk against Northeastern.

UCLA followed up last Wednesdayâ€™s 82-58 rout of Florida A&M with a hard-fought 64-59 victory over Miami (Ohio) the following night, both at home. The Bruins failed to cover the spread in both contests, falling short as a 37-point and a 16Â½-point favorite. UCLA, which has made three straight trips to the Final Four, is 99-17 SU since the start of the 2005-06 season, including three straight wins and covers over Michigan.

Going back to 2004, the Bruins have won four straight meetings against the Wolverines (3-1 ATS), including last yearâ€™s 69-54 rout as a 12Â½-point road chalk. In that contest, UCLA outshot Michigan 49 percent to 31.3 percent.

UCLA has failed to cash in five of its last six lined games dating to last yearâ€™s NCAA Tournament, all against non-conference foes. The Bruins are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral-site contests, but theyâ€™re on ATS rolls of 4-1-1 against the Big Ten and 8-2 on Thursdays. Meanwhile, Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last six at neutral sites and 3-13 in its last 16 non-conference games.

The under is 7-1 in Michiganâ€™s last eight overall and 5-1 in UCLAâ€™s last six against the Big Ten, but the over is 9-3 in Michiganâ€™s last 12 non-league battles and 4-1 in UCLAâ€™s last five lined games overall. Finally, the over is 4-2 in the last six head-to-head meetings that have featured a posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA

(19) USC (2-0, 1-1 ATS) vs. Seton Hall (2-0, 1-0 ATS)

(at Puerto Rico)

Seton Hall, which started last season 6-0, looks to remain perfect when it takes on 19th-ranked USC in the opening round of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off.

The Pirates dropped nine of its final 11 games last season (3-8 ATS), but has gotten off to a solid start this year with blowout home wins over Saint Francis (88-61 in a non-lined contest) and Columbia (71-50 as a 14-point chalk). Seton Hall shot a combined 57.5 percent in the two wins, but the opponents made 49 percent of their shots.

USC followed up a 78-55 season-opening home win over UC Irvine with Tuesdayâ€™s 73-60 home victory over New Mexico State. The Trojans, who shot 46 percent in the two wins and held the opposition to 34.5 percent, cashed as an 18-point favorite against Irvine, but came up short as a 15Â½-point chalk versus New Mexico State. Tim Floydâ€™s squad has alternated spread-covers in its last seven games going back to March.

The Trojans are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight after a non-cover. On the flip side, Seton Hall is mired in pointspread slumps of 4-8 overall, 4-17 at neutral sites, 1-4-1 in non-conference play and 3-7 on Thursdays.

The under is 26-10 in USCâ€™s last 36 non-conference games, 7-1 in USCâ€™s last eight at neutral sites and 5-0 in Seton Hallâ€™s last five lined contests overall. However, the Pirates have topped the total in seven of eight on Thursday and four of five in non-Big East action.

ATS ADVANTAGE: USC

NBA

Detroit (8-3, 6-5 ATS) at Boston (10-2, 5-7 ATS)

The defending NBA champion Celtics take on the Pistons, who will return to the TD Banknorth Garden for the first time since last seasonâ€™s Eastern Conference finals.

Boston, minus Kevin Garnett who was serving a league-imposed one-game suspension, held off New York 110-101 Tuesday night to narrowly cover as an eight-point chalk, halting a four-game ATS slide. The Celtics, who are shooting 44.7 percent from the field for the season, were well above that against the Knicks, hitting a 53.2 percent clip (42 of 79).

Detroit claimed a 96-89 victory over Cleveland as a 2Â½-point favorite last night, moving to 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Pistons, who are shooting 44.8 percent from the field on the season, hit at a 50.7 percent clip against the Cavs, paced by 23 points from the recently acquired Allen Iverson. Detroit trailed by two after three quarters, but outscored the Cavs by nine in the final frame.

Boston dropped Detroit 88-76 earlier this month as a one-point road pup, giving the road team a 5-1 ATS mark in the last six meetings of this rivalry, dating to last seasonâ€™s playoff series. The Pistons are 5-2 ATS on their last seven trips to the Garden.

The Celtics are on ATS skids of 1-4 overall, 1-4 at home and 5-12 against the Central Division, but they are on pointspread runs of 11-3 against winning teams and 7-3 after a spread-cover. The Pistons are on ATS streaks of 6-0 on the road against teams with a winning home mark and 7-2 overall on the road.

The under for Boston is on a 9-2 run against winning teams, and for Detroit, the under is also 9-2 in its last 11 against winning teams and is on a 13-4 tear playing on the second of back-to-back nights. And in this rivalry, the under is on runs of 9-2 overall and 6-2 in Boston.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

L.A. Lakers (8-1, 6-3 ATS) at Phoenix (8-4, 6-6 ATS)

The red-hot Lakers head to the desert southwest for their first meeting of the season against the rival Suns.

Los Angeles fended off Chicago 116-109 Tuesday night, failing to cash as a healthy 13-point favorite, their second straight non-cover after a four-game ATS surge. Pau Gasol carried the Lakers with a season-high 34 points. Los Angeles currently sports the leagueâ€™s third-best offensive attack (104.9 ppg) and third-best defense (91.3 ppg), holding opponents to 41.5 percent shooting overall (second) and 33.2 percent from 3-point range.

Phoenix lost to Utah 109-97 Monday night catching two points on the road, dropping to 1-4 ATS in its last five contests. The Suns got killed on the boards, getting outrebounded 47-26 for the game and outscored by 21 points over the last three quarters. That said, Phoenix still leads the league in field-goal percentage, at 49.9 percent.

Los Angeles is on a 4-1 ATS run (3-2 SU) in this Pacific Division rivalry, but the two teams havenâ€™t met since last February, when L.A. outgunned the Suns 130-124 getting 3Â½ points on the road. The Lakers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Phoenix, and the road team is on a 5-1 ATS uptick in this rivalry.

The Lakers are on ATS streaks of 4-1 after a SU win, 20-7-1 against the Western Conference and 24-11-1 on the road. The Suns are on a 1-4 ATS slide, but they sport positive ATS trends of 7-2 playing on two daysâ€™ rest, 10-3 after a non-cover and 7-3 after a SU loss.

The over for Los Angeles is on runs of 5-1 overall and 5-1 against winning teams, and the over for Phoenix is on streaks of 4-1 playing on two daysâ€™ rest and 4-1 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in five of the last six meetings and is on a 4-0 run in Phoenix.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Wednesday 11-19 Service Plays

2008-11-19T06:23:55-08:00

SPORTS ADVISORS

(14) Ball State (10-0, 7-2 ATS) at Central Michigan (8-2, 6-3 ATS)

Ball State, one of five remaining unbeaten teams in Division I-A, hits the road for a key Mid-American Conference clash against surging Central Michigan, with both teams sporting 6-0 SU marks in league play.

The Cardinals remained perfect by pulling away from Miami (Ohio) 31-16 last Tuesday night, narrowly failing to cash as a healthy 17½-point chalk, their second ATS setback in the last three games. Ball State was up by just four (17-13) at halftime but allowed only a field goal in the second half, and RB MiQuale Lewis (26 carries, 165 yards) had a 1-yard TD run in the third quarter and another 1-yard score in the fourth. The Cards finished with a 484-330 edge in total yards.

The Chippewas, playing their third straight road game, topped Northern Illinois 33-30 in overtime on Wednesday last week as a four-point road underdog for their sixth straight victory (4-2 ATS). Central Michigan blew a 30-14 fourth-quarter lead, getting shut out in the final frame as the Huskies forced OT, but the Chippewas got an INT to open the extra session, then won on Andrew Aguila’s 40-yard field goal. QB Dan LeFevour (19 of 26, 188 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was efficient in the air, and he also ran for 121 yards and two more TDs.

Both squads are 4-2 ATS in MAC play and tied atop the West Division standings, but just a half-game ahead of Western Michigan.

Ball State features the nation’s ninth-ranked scoring defense (15.4 points per game allowed), and the offense ranks 12th in total offense (461 yards per game) and 15th in scoring (37.6 ppg). Meanwhile, Central Michigan has the 14th-rated passing attack (279.1).

Central Michigan is on streaks of 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in this rivalry, and going back 11 years, the Chips are 8-3 ATS against Ball State. The road team, however, is on a 5-2 ATS surge, which includes CMU’s 58-38 rout at Ball State last year as a 12-point road underdog. In the victory, the Chips nearly doubled the Cardinals in total offense, finishing with a 658-369 yardage edge.

Along with their season-long 7-2 ATS mark, the Cardinals are on pointspread streaks of 16-5 on the road (4-1 this year), 14-3 against winning teams, 9-4 in November and 22-10 in the MAC. The Chippewas are also on a bundle of positive ATS runs, including 30-10-3 overall, 14-2-1 at home (2-1 this year), 21-5-3 inside the MAC and 9-3 against winning teams.

The under for Ball State is on runs of 4-1 overall, 6-1 in November and 7-3 on the road (3-0 last three), but the over for Central Michigan is on streaks of 13-5 overall (5-4 this year), 5-0 in November and 6-0 against winning teams. The over is also 3-1 in the last four meetings between these schools.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

South Florida (1-0 SU and ATS) at Virginia (1-0, 0-0 ATS)

South Florida looks to start a season with consecutive victories for the seventh time in the last eight years when it travels to Virginia for a non-conference contest.

The Bulls opened up with Friday’s 60-46 rout of SMU, cashing as a 10½-point home chalk. Defense carried the day for South Florida, which limited the Mustangs to 13 field goals in 47 tries (27.7 percent). The Bulls finished last year in a 2-15 slump (6-11 ATS), all against Big East opponents, and they haven’t won consecutive games since taking three in a row from Dec. 22-Jan. 1.

Virginia tipped off its season with Sunday’s 107-97 win over Virginia Military Institute (VMI) in a non-lined home game. The Cavaliers missed 13 of 16 three-point tries, but still ended up shooting 54.4 percent from the field overall and enjoyed a whopping 48-29 rebounding edge. Virginia (17-16, 13-15 ATS last year) has won seven of its last 10 dating to the end of last year and went 6-1 ATS in its last seven regular-season contests.

South Florida is on ATS runs of 8-1 in non-conference play and 23-9 following a SU win. Virginia carries negative ATS trends 1-4 at home, 0-4 in non-conference action, 0-5 against the Big East and 7-20 on Wednesday.

The under is on runs of 4-0 for South Florida overall in lined action, 7-0 for South Florida on the road and 5-1 for Virginia against the Big East. However, the over is 4-1 in the Cavs’ last five lined outings overall and 4-1 in its last five non-conference contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH FLORIDA

NBA

Cleveland (9-2, 8-3 ATS) at Detroit (7-3, 5-5 ATS)

The top two teams in the Central Division square off for the first time this season, as LeBron James and the Cavaliers pay a visit to The Palace of Auburn Hills for a battle with Allen Iverson and the Pistons.

Cleveland ran its winning streak to eight in a row (6-2 ATS) with last night’s 106-82 victory at New Jersey as a six-point road favorite. The Cavaliers are 3-0 SU and ATS on the road during their winning streak, and they’ve scored at least 100 points in all but one of the eight games, scoring 99 in the other contest.

Detroit comes into this one off a well-deserved three-day respite after a four-game West Coast road trip that started with three straight wins and covers – scoring in triple digits in each contest – before Sunday’s 104-86 blowout loss at Phoenix as a two-point underdog. The Pistons have played seven of their last eight games on the road going back to Nov. 3, with the only home game being an ugly 88-76 loss to Boston as a one-point home chalk. In fact, Flip Saunders’ squad has failed to cash in all three of its contests at The Palace this season.

The Pistons, who lost to the Cavaliers in the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals, gained a measure of revenge in taking three of four from Cleveland last season both SU and ATS. In the two clashes in Motown, Detroit won by margins of 34 and 14 points, holding James to a combined 28 points in both contests.

Prior to last year, the Cavaliers had cashed in eight straight meetings against Detroit (playoffs included), including five straight in the Motor City. Over the last five series battles, the host is 4-1 ATS and the favorite is 5-0 ATS.

Going back to the playoffs last year, the Cavs are on ATS runs of 13-3 overall, 6-1 on the highway and 10-2 against the Eastern Conference, but the have failed to cash in seven of their last nine divisional outings. Meanwhile, Detroit sports ATS slides of 0-4 at home, 2-5 against the East and 4-9 when playing on Wednesdays.

For Cleveland, the over is on runs of 7-4 this season (6-1 last seven), 4-1 against the Eastern Conference and 4-0 in divisional tilts. The over is also 7-3 for Detroit this year (2-1 at home), 5-1 versus the East and 5-0 when playing on Wednesdays. Conversely, 25 of the last 31 meetings between these rivals – including five of the last six at The Palace – have stayed under the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Denver (7-4, 7-3-1 ATS) at San Antonio (5-5, 4-6 ATS)

The depleted Spurs go for their fourth straight win as they attempt to climb above .500 for the first time this season when they host the Nuggets at the AT&T Center.

San Antonio started the season with three straight losses overall and three straight defeats at home. But during a four-day stretch, Gregg Popovich’s squad has ripped off three straight wins over the Rockets (home), Kings (road) and Clippers (road) by a combined seven points, cashing in all three contests as an underdog. The Spurs, who continue to play without All-Star guards Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, are 4-1 ATS in their last five after starting out with five consecutive non-covers.

The Nuggets are 6-1 (4-2-1 ATS) since point guard Chauncey Billups joined the lineup, and last night they dumped Milwaukee 114-105, pushing as a nine-point home chalk. Long known for offense, Denver has held four of its last six opponents to 90 points or less, with three of the last five foes scoring 85 or fewer.

Including a first-round playoff series in 2007, San Antonio has won six of the last eight against Denver, with the home team going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes. However, the Nuggets cashed in the final three battles with the Spurs last season, ending an 0-5 ATS slump against San Antonio. The favorite is on a 23-9 ATS roll in this rivalry and the SU winner has cashed in 11 of 12 meetings the last two years.

In addition to starting the season on a 7-3-1 ATS roll, the Nuggets are on additional pointspread hot streaks of 5-2 against the Western Conference, 8-1 versus the Southwest Division and 6-1 when playing on back-to-back nights. On the flip side, San Antonio has failed to cash in nine of its last 12 against the Northwest Division and six of its last eight on Wednesday.

For Denver, the under is on runs of 4-2 overall, 12-4 against the Western Conference and 19-7 against the Southwest Division. Also, San Antonio is in the midst of under streaks of 18-5-1 overall (7-3 this season), 4-0 at home, 13-3 against the West and 35-16 when playing on one day of rest.

Lastly, the under is 20-6 in the last 26 series meetings and 7-1 in the last eight tussles at the AT&T Center.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and UNDER

Tuesday 11-18 Service Plays

2008-11-18T06:42:59-08:00

Sports Advisors

Northern Illinois (5-5, 5-4 ATS) at Kent State (3-7, 3-6 ATS)

Fresh off a pair of losses that killed any hope of competing for the Mid-American Conference championship, Northern Illinois will try to at least get back over .500 when it travels to Kent State for a MAC clash.

The Huskies began November on a 5-1 run, but they’ve had the rug pulled out from under them the last two Wednesdays. On Nov. 5, they went to No. 16 Ball State and got crushed 45-14 as an eight-point road underdog, and then last week Northern Illinois rallied from a 30-6 second-half deficit against Central Michigan to force overtime, only to lose 33-30 as a four-point home chalk. The Huskies’ defense got gashed in both defeats, giving up 529 total yards (219 rushing) to Ball State and 430 yards (241 rushing) to Central Michigan.

Kent State played a back-and-forth home game against Temple on Wednesday, eventually prevailing 38-31 as a one-point favorite. The Golden Flashes finished with a 561-354 yard edge in total offense, including a whopping 329-72 advantage on the ground and forced four turnovers, but committed three themselves, and they also got burned on a 92-yard kickoff return for a score.

Northern Illinois is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including last year’s 27-20 home victory as a 3½-point underdog, as the piled up a season-high 235 rushing yards. The host has cashed in four of the five meetings between these schools, the only exception being in the Huskies’ last visit to Kent in 2005 when they rolled 34-3 as a 10½-point chalk.

Northern Illinois started the season on a 4-0 ATS run, but is 1-4 ATS since (all against MAC foes), including 0-3 ATS in its last three and 1-3 ATS as a favorite. However, the Huskies are 5-1 ATS on the highway going back to the end of last season (4-1 ATS this year), the lone non-cover coming at Ball State. Additionally, the Huskies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 November contests and 5-2 ATS in their last seven against losing teams.

Kent has followed up a four-game losing skid by going 2-1 SU and ATS in its last three, putting up averages of 41.7 points and 502.3 yards during this stretch. Also, the SU winner is 8-1 ATS in the team’s nine lined games this season. However, the Golden Flashes are mired in pointspread slumps of 7-19 overall, 2-8 at home, 4-13 against MAC rivals, 1-5 in November, 2-7 on artificial turf and 0-6 after both a SU win and an ATS triumph.

For the Huskies, the under is on stretches of 20-7-1 overall, 11-5 on the highway, 14-4-1 in league play, 7-2 in November and 4-0-1 against losing teams. Conversely, Kent is on over streaks of 6-1 overall and 5-1 in MAC play, but the under is 8-3 in the teams last 11 November outings. Finally, the last three battles between these squads have stayed under the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHERN ILLINOIS and UNDER

NBA

Toronto (5-4 SU and ATS) at Orlando (7-3, 5-5 ATS)

The red-hot Magic return home after a perfect 3-0 road trip, and they’ll look to win their fourth in a row when they take on the Raptors in a rematch of last spring’s opening-round playoff series.

Orlando began their journey with a 17-point blowout win at Oklahoma City, then escaped with narrow victories over Dallas (102-100) and Charlotte (90-85). In Sunday’s win over the Bobcats, the Magic came up just short as a 6½-point road favorite. After opening the season with consecutive losses, Orlando has won seven of its last eight (5-3 ATS), scoring at least 90 points in each contest.

Toronto halted a two-game slide with Sunday’s 107-98 rout of the Heat as a three-point home chalk. The Raptors started out 3-0 (1-2 ATS), but have since gone 2-4 (3-3 ATS). On the bright side, they’ve cashed in four of their first five road games this year, and they’re 3-0 ATS as an underdog.

Orlando eliminated the Raptors in five games in last year’s first round of the playoffs, going 3-2 ATS. Including three regular-season meetings, the Magic were 6-2 (5-3 ATS) against Toronto in 2007-08, and the home team (and the favorite) won six of the final seven clashes (playoffs included), going 5-2 ATS.

In addition to its 4-1 ATS road record this year, Toronto is 40-19-2 ATS in its last 61 games against the Southeast Division, but otherwise the franchise is in the midst of ATS nosedives of 3-9 after a SU win, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 6-20 when playing on one day of rest. Meanwhile, Orlando is on pointspread streaks of 7-3 against the Atlantic Division, 9-3-1 when play on Tuesday and 35-16-1 when coming off a non-cover.

For the Magic, the under is on runs of 20-9 overall, 5-2 at home, 20-6 against the Eastern Conference, 4-0 versus Atlantic Division squads and 22-7 against winning teams. For Toronto, the under streaks include 5-1 on the road, 13-6-1 against the Eastern Conference and 6-2 after a SU win. Finally, last year’s final three playoff meetings between these teams stayed low after the over had been on a 5-1 run in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER

New York (6-4, 5-5 ATS) at Boston (9-2, 4-7 ATS)

The surprising Knicks pay a visit to the defending NBA champs, but they won’t have to deal with Celtics All-Star forward Kevin Garnett, who has been suspended for this contest.

Garnett was punished by the league Monday for hitting Milwaukee’s Andrew Bogut in the face in Saturday’s 102-97 overtime win at Milwaukee. Although Paul Pierce (28 points, seven rebounds, six assists) and Ray Allen (27 points) had huge games against the Bucks, Garnett managed just 15 points and seven rebounds before fouling out. Boston failed to cash as an 8½-point road chalk, the team’s fourth consecutive non-cover.

Boston is unbeaten in five home games, but the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last four on their own floor, and they’re defeating their visitors by an average of just five points per game (95-90).

New York is coming off Sunday’s tough 124-114 overtime loss to the Mavericks as a two-point home underdog. The Knicks have averaged 117.3 ppg in their last three outings, but they got outscored 12-2 in the extra session against Dallas. Still, New York is on runs of 5-2 SU and 4-2 ATS, and Mike D’Antoni’s troops are 2-2 SU and ATS on the road.

The Celtics have beaten New York six straight times (5-0-1 ATS) going back to December 2006, and they toyed with the Knickerbockers last year, posting four wins by an average margin of 18.8 ppg. That includes a humiliating 104-59 win as a 12½-point favorite in the first meeting at TD Banknorth Garden last November. The Knicks are just 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 matchups with the Celtics, including 2-5-1 ATS in the last eight trips to Boston. However, the visitor is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 clashes.

Despite their recent pointspread downturn, the Celtics are still on positive ATS runs of 20-7-2 inside the Atlantic Division, 10-3 versus winning teams, 4-0 when playing on two days’ rest and 4-1 on Tuesdays. New York is 5-2 ATS in its last seven Tuesday contests, but 4-12 ATS in its last 16 after a non-cover, 1-4 ATS in its last five against division rivals and 0-4 ATS in its last four following a double-digit home loss.

For the Knicks, the over is on stretches of 29-14 overall, 9-3 on the road, 8-3 after a double-digit home setback and 5-2 on Tuesdays. On the flip side, the under is 4-1 in Boston’s last five against divisional rivals and 6-2 in its last eight after a SU win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON

Troy Polamalu Touchdown Taken Off Board-Chargers Cover +5

2008-11-17T13:10:19-08:00

Here is a highlight video of the final play yesterday. No forward pass (even the first one was a full yard to two yards backwards). Besides the fact that the Chargers covered, think about serious fantasy football leagues that had their game decided yesterday because of that play? Lots of pissed off people over this one…

Monday 11-17 Service Plays

2008-11-17T06:14:43-08:00

Sports Advisors

Cleveland (3-6, 5-4 ATS) at Buffalo (5-4, 4-5 ATS)

Two teams in desperate need of a victory square off tonight at Ralph Wilson Stadium when the Browns make the trek to Buffalo for a prime-time matchup.

Cleveland has dropped two straight (0-2 ATS) and three of four (2-2 ATS). The Browns have blown fourth-quarter leads the last two weeks, falling to Baltimore 37-27 as one-point home favorites on Nov. 2 and then losing 34-30 to Denver on Nov. 6 as a three-point home chalk, with the defensive giving up 564 total yards including 441 passing yards, including three fourth-quarter touchdown passes.

Brady Quinn made his debut as the Browns’ starting QB against the Broncos and was an impressive 23-of-25 passing for 239 yards and two TDs with no INTs.

Since opening the season with four straight wins, the Bills have dropped four of five SU and ATS including the last three in a row, all to AFC East foes. Last week in New England, Buffalo mustered just 168 total yards and fell 20-10 as a 3½-point ‘dog, and in their most recent home game, the Bills fell 26-17 to the Jets as five-point favorites. Buffalo has turned the ball over nine times and QB Trent Edwards has been sacked nine times during its current three-game slide.

Last year when these two squared off in Cleveland, the Browns got an 8-0 win as four-point favorites as the Bills managed just 232 yards of offense in blizzard-like conditions. Cleveland RB Jamal Lewis did the bulk of the damage, running for 163 yards on 33 carries.

Cleveland is on several positive ATS streaks, including 17-7 overall, 7-3 on the road, 12-5 against teams from the AFC, 13-3 against teams with a winning record and 9-3 following a non-cover. Buffalo is in pointspread ruts of 1-4 overall and 0-4 in November games, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 12-5 at home, 39-19-3 against teams with a losing record and 13-3 at home against teams with a losing road record.

Cleveland is 14-12 SU (15-11 ATS) in its last 26 Monday games while Buffalo is 17-21 SU (18-18-2 ATS) under the Monday night lights.

For the Browns, the over is 5-1 in their last six November games, but otherwise the team is on under streaks of 11-4 overall, 7-3 against AFC teams, 5-1 following a non-cover and 6-1 on the road. For the Bills, the under is on runs of 5-1-1 against AFC teams, 11-4 against teams with a losing record and 35-16-1 following a straight-up loss, but the over is on runs of 6-1-1 at home and 4-0 on Mondays.

Finally, the over is 9-2 in Monday night matchups this season.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Massachusetts (1-1, 0-1 ATS) at (13) Memphis (1-0 SU and ATS)

John Calipari and his Tigers host the coach’s former school when the Minutemen visit Memphis in a non-conference matchup.

Calipari coached in Massachusetts from 1988-1996 and led the school to five straight Atlantic 10 titles and NCAA Tournaments, including a Final Four appearance in 1996. Now in his eighth campaign in Memphis, Calipari has led the Tigers to the Big Dance in five of the last six years, including making it to the national title game last year before losing to Kansas 75-68 in overtime.

Memphis (38-2, 18-18-2 ATS in 2007-08) lost its two leading scorers in Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose to the NBA, but is still favored to win Conference USA. The Tigers opened Saturday with a 90-63 blowout win over Fairfield in the first round of the Puerto Rico Tip-off Tournament, cashing as 21-point favorites. Four of Memphis’ five starters scored in double digits, with Shawn Taggart leading the way with 14 points and 12 rebounds.

The Tigers opened last season with a 26-game winning streak (13-11-2 ATS) before losing at home to Tennessee, then the Tigers won 12 more in a row (5-7 ATS) before the loss in the national title game. Memphis went 18-1 at the FedEx Forum last year, but just 10-8-1 ATS.

UMass (25-11, 17-15-1 ATS last year) reached the NIT championship game at Madison Square Garden in April, falling to Ohio State 92-85 in the title tilt as three-point pups. The Minutemen rattled off four wins to get the final, going 3-1 ATS in the process, and they finished 11-8 on the highway (11-7 ATS).

First-year Minutemen coach Derek Kellogg played for Calipari at UMass and was his assistant at Memphis the last eight seasons. Kellogg easily won his debut Tuesday, pounding Arkansas-Monticello 90-71 in an un-lined contest, but fell Wednesday 80-73 at Southern Illinois, blowing a nine-point halftime lead and failing as five-point underdogs.

UMass is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven Monday games, while the Tigers are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine on Mondays and 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a spread-cover. However, Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five overall and 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games.

For the Minutemen, the over is 20-9-1 in their last 30 non-conference games and 12-5 in their last 17 after a non-cover. For Memphis, the over is on runs of 6-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 against teams from the Atlantic 10 and 6-1 in non-conference games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

NBA

Phoenix (8-3, 6-5 ATS) at Utah (6-4, 4-6 ATS)

The Jazz return to the friendly surroundings of EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City when they host the Suns in a Western Conference matchup.

Utah is coming off a five-game East Coast road swing that saw the Jazz go just 1-4 SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 105-93 loss in Cleveland as 10½-point favorites. Not only has Utah lost three in a row, it is just 1-5 ATS in its last six. At home, though, the Jazz are a perfect 4-0 (2-2 ATS), averaging 10 more points per game (101.5-91.5) and shooting 49.5 percent from the field as opposed to 43.4 percent for their visitors.

Phoenix is coming off last night’s 104-86 win over the Pistons, easily cashing as a two-point home favorite. The Suns are on a 4-1 SU roll, but are just 2-4 ATS in their last six, with last night’s spread-cover snapping a three-game ATS slump. Phoenix has been doing it with defense lately, allowing just one opponent to top the 100-point mark in its last five games.

Utah won two of the three meetings with Phoenix last season (3-0 ATS), and the Jazz are 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight with the Suns. In the only battle in Salt Lake City last season, the Jazz crushed the Suns 108-86 as 7½-point favorites, but otherwise the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Phoenix is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games against Western Conference squads and 2-4-1 ATS in its last six against teams with a winning record. Utah is on positive ATS streaks of 41-18-2 at home, 13-3 on Mondays and 4-1 against Pacific Division foes, but the Jazz are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 against teams with a winning record.

The over is on streaks of 4-1 when the Suns play the second night of a back-to-back and 6-0 when they play on Mondays. For Utah, the over is on runs of 24-10 against Pacific Division teams, 5-2 at home against teams with a winning road record and 5-1 when they return home after a road trip of seven or more days.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER

Sunday 11-16 Service Plays

2008-11-16T06:30:46-08:00

Allen Eastman

$2000.00 Atlanta (-6) over Denver
We have ridden the Falcons a lot this year and I just do not trust this Denver defense to be able to stop the Atlanta ground game. The Falcons are riding some momentum off a big win at home over New Orleans last week. Their secondary played well against Drew Brees and the Saints high-powered passing attack and I think they can do the same against Jay Cutler and Co. Cutler has been making shaky decisions with the ball and I just don’t think that this Broncos team is as good as their record indicates. Denver is 4-12 ATS on the road and is 8-24-1 ATS in its last 33 overall.

$2000.00 Washington (+1.5) over Dallas
Even out of a bye week the Cowboys are still overrated. I think that there are some fundamental issues with Dallas that can’t be fixed in an extra week and I don’t think they should be favored on the road here. The underdog is 20-6 ATS in this series, the home team is 5-1 SU, and the Redskins are 6-1 ATS in the last seven in this series. This is a rivalry series where the underdog and the home team have performed very well. Here we are backing a home dog. I think it’s great value.

$800.00 Under 44.5 St. Louis at San Francisco
Four straight in this series have stayed under the total and four of five on the grass in San Fran have gone ‘under’. The Niners defense has been playing better as of late, even though the numbers don’t support that. They have played five of the top offenses in the league – Arizona, Seattle, the Giants, New Orleans, and Philadelphia – and have gotten demolished. But St. Louis’ offense is more their speed. The Rams gave up 47 points last week and I’m sure their coaches were all over them this week. I expect a more inspired effort.

$600.00 Houston (+8.5) over Indianapolis
I think the Colts are primed for a letdown this weekend after a big win against the Steelers. It’s not that I don’t think they can beat the Texans, it’s that I think this number is too large for them to cover with their defense. Houston was dominating the Colts just a few weekends ago in Texas before blowing their late lead. The Colts are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 divisional games.

$3000.00 Over 38.5 Minnesota at Tampa Bay
The general consensus is that these are two strong defenses and that this should be a grind-it-out game. However, the numbers suggest something different. Minnesota has averaged a total of 47.2 points per game overall and on the road they are averaging a total of 59.7 points per game. Basically, the Vikings’ defense is not nearly as strong as the public thinks it is. Five of their last six games have gone ‘over’, and most of them have gone ‘over’ by at least 10 points. On the other side, Tampa Bay’s offense is much better than its numbers suggest as well. Their problems have been in the red zone. But I think that Jon Gruden put in extra time and extra work on this aspect of their game during the bye week and I expect to see some new wrinkles. The ‘over’ is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Tampa Bay and 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in Tampa’s last five games of a week or rest and is 16-5-2 in Minnesota’s last seven games after an ATS loss.

TEASER

HOU+18.5
WASH+11
SF UNDER 54…........................$480/$400

Saturday 11-15 Service Plays

2008-11-15T06:35:36-08:00

Mike Anthony

NorthWestern vs. Michigan
Play: Michigan -4

Michigan reached back for its best performance of the season in garnering a win at Minnesota last week. Must believe HC Rich Rodriguez will call on the Wolverines to show some additional pride and build on that effort this week against a Northwestern squad not at full strength.Michigan has won five straight against the Wildcats, all by doubledigit margins. Although Northwestern QB C.J. Bacher is expected to return from a hamstring injury that kept him out the last two games, he won’t be in full form. The Wildcats 5-0 start has faded to 2-3 the last 5 games, as injures have forced them to play without leading rusher Tyrell Sutton. Michigan has 15 Seniors who will be playing their final games of their college careers at home. I’m backing the Michigan Wolves.

Friday 11-14 Service Plays

2008-11-14T06:33:06-08:00

SPORTS ADVISORS

(22) Cincinnati (7-2, 4-4 ATS) at Louisville (5-4, 4-4 ATS)

The red-hot Bearcats have jumped into the Top-25 for the first time this season thanks to back-to-back wins over ranked teams and now travel to Louisville for a Big East matchup with the Cardinals.

Since falling in Connecticut on Oct. 25, Cincinnati has beaten then-No. 24 South Florida 24-10 as a 1½-point ‘dog and then last week went to 20th-ranked West Virginia and got a 26-23 overtime win as a seven-point underdog. Bearcats QB Tony Pike, still recovering from surgery on his non-throwing arm, threw a 2-yard TD pass in OT to Kazeem Alli to beat West Virginia, and he’s thrown 10 TDs this season against just three INTs.

Cincinnati has won six of its last seven games (4-3 ATS) to pull into a three-way tie for first in the Big East with the Mountaineers and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals are tied for seventh in the eight-team division.

Louisville has dropped two straight, both on the road, including last week’s 41-7 disaster in Pittsburgh as a six-point underdog. The Cardinals lead the Big East with 21 turnovers and coughed it up five times against the Panthers last week, including a fumble and interception that were returned for scores.

Cardinals’ QB Hunter Cantwell was replaced twice last week by redshirt freshman Matt Simms, but Cantwell is slated to start tonight even though he’s completing just 57.9 percent of his throws and has 13 TDs and 11 INTs.

Louisville has won the last five matchups (4-1 ATS) with nearby Cincinnati and nine of the last 10 (8-2 ATS). Last season, the Cardinals went to Cincinnati and got a 28-24 win as eight-point underdogs, handing the Bearcats their first loss of the 2007 season. The last time these two met in Louisville, the Cardinals prevailed 23-17 but came nowhere near covering as 25-point favorites.

Cincinnati is on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 19-9-2 overall, 5-2-1 in Big East games, 25-10-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 12-4-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-0-1 in November contests. Louisville is just 1-4 ATS in its last five Friday affairs, but otherwise the Cardinals are on positive pointspread streaks of 21-9 at home and 5-2 following a non-cover.

The over is 9-3-1 in the Bearcats last 13 road games, but the under has been the play in seven of their last 10 after a straight-up win and five of their last seven after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Louisville has stayed under the total in four straight Big East contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

NBA

Denver (4-4, 6-2 ATS) at Boston (8-1, 4-5 ATS)

The Celtics will try to make it seven straight wins when they welcome the Nuggets to TD Banknorth Garden in Boston.

The Celtics stretched their winning streak to six with Wednesday’s dramatic 103-102 home win over the Hawks as Paul Pierce hit the game-winner with 0.5 seconds left. The victory ended Atlanta’s six-game winning streak to start the season, but the Celtics came nowhere near covering the 10½-point spread. Boston is a perfect 5-0 at home this season but just 1-4 ATS.

Denver went to Cleveland last night and dropped a 110-99 decision to the Cavs, coming up short as a six-point underdog. The loss snapped the Nuggets’ three-game SU and ATS winning streak, all coming after the arrival of Chauncey Billups in the trade for Allen Iverson.

The home team is on a 7-0 SU and ATS roll in this series, and the winner has scored at least 116 points in each of the last four. Last year, Boston got a 119-93 win in Beantown as a 6½-point favorite and then the Nuggets returned the favor in a 124-118 win in Denver as a one-point chalk.

Denver is on ATS streaks of 6-2 ovreall, 8-0 against teams from the Atlantic Division, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference and 13-3 in Friday contests. Boston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games, but otherwise the Celtics are on positive ATS runs of 11-5 overall, 35-16 against the Western Conference, 17-8 against teams from the Northwest Division and 5-2 when playing after a day off.

For the Nuggets, the over is 35-16 in their last 51 Friday contests and 8-3 in their last 11 against the Eastern Conference, but the under is 12-5 in their last 17 overall. Boston has topped the total in 25 of its last 33 against the Northwest Division and the over is 4-0 in its last four against teams with a winning record. Also, the over is 6-0 in the last six Nuggets-Celtics clashes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER

Houston (5-3, 3-5 ATS) at San Antonio (2-5, 1-6 ATS)

The Rockets wrap up a five-game road trip tonight in the AT&T Center in San Antonio trying to snap the home team’s four-game winning streak in this battle between Lone Star State rivals.

The host won all four meetings between these two last season with Houston getting the cash in three of the four. The four-game streak by the home team comes after a six-game winning streak by the visitor (5-1 ATS). The Rockets are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Spurs, and they have gotten the cash in five of their last six visits to San Antonio.

Houston is 2-2 (SU and ATS) so far on its road trip and come in off Wednesday’s 94-82 win in Phoenix as a 3½-point underdog. The Rockets got 27 points from Tracy McGrady in the win that was marred by an on-court shoving match between the Suns’ Matt Barnes and Houston’s Rafer Alston.

San Antonio has alternated wins and losses in its last four after opening the season with three straight defeats. The Spurs fell in Milwaukee on Wednesday 82-78 as 2½-point underdogs. Gregg Popovich’s team is just 1-3 SU and ATS at home this season with the lone win being Tuesday’s 92-80 triumph over the Knicks as a 4½-point chalk.

Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games after a straight-up win and 1-4 ATS in its last five when playing after a day off, but the Rockets are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 Friday contests. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been a bad bet lately, currently on ATS slides of 1-8 overall, 1-4 at home, 0-6 against Western Conference squads and 1-5 after a non-cover.

For the Rockets, the over is 5-2 in their last seven against Southwest Division foes, but the under is 7-2 in their last nine after a spread-cover and 6-2 in their last eight after a day off. The Spurs carry under trends of 13-3 overall, 7-1 at home, 21-8-1 against the Southwest Division, 10-3 against the Western Conference and 8-1 after an off day.

Finally, the under is 22-6 in the last 28 Rockets-Spurs meetings and 6-1 in the last seven clashes in San Antonio.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Detroit (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (7-0, 6-1 ATS)

The Lakers will try to remain the NBA’s only unbeaten team when they host the Pistons inside the Staples Center in Los Angeles.

Los Angeles has been impressive at both ends of the court during its perfect start to the season, with the offense averaging 104.7 points a game and the defense yielding just 86.7 points per contest, holding all seven opponents under triple digits. The Lakers had their worst offensive output on Wednesday in New Orleans, but still cruised to a 93-86 victory as 1½-point road ‘dogs, their fourth straight spread-cover.

Detroit opened the season with five straight wins and then proceeded to lose two straight after acquiring Allen Iverson from the Nuggets for Chauncey Billups in an exchange of point guards. But the Pistons have rebounded to win two straight on the West Coast – a 100-92 victory in Sacramento on Tuesday as 7½-point favorites and a 107-102 triumph last night in Oakland, cashing as a 4½-point chalk.

Detroit has scored 100 points or more in each of its six wins and the Pistons have allowed only three opponents to reach triple digits.

The home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings between these teams, but the Lakers got the cash in both outings last season, winning 103-91 in Los Angeles as a 3½-point favorite, then cashing as 8½-point ‘dogs in a 90-89 loss in Motown. However, the Pistons are 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 series clashes.

The Pistons are on ATS streaks of 6-1 on the road, 7-1 against the Western Conference and 5-0 against teams from the Pacific Division. Los Angeles has failed to cash in nine straight games against the Eastern Conference, including last year’s NBA Finals series against Boston. On the bright side, the Lakers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 at home.

The under is 13-3 in Detroit’s last 16 games when playing on the second night of a back-to-back situation, but the over is 6-1 in its last seven on the road and 6-2 in its last eight overall. For the Lakers, the over is 11-5 in their last 16 on Friday, but otherwise, L.A. is on under streaks of 6-2 when they get a day off and 38-15-1 against teams from the Central Division. In this rivalry, the under is 4-0 in the last four meetings overall and 7-3 in the last 10 battles at Staples Center.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Thursday 11-13 Service Plays

2008-11-13T06:38:55-08:00

Bettorsworld

JETS AT PATS

One word comes to mind when looking at this Thursday Night AFC East clash…....HUGE. These two sit at 6-3 on the year in one of the most tightly contested divisions in the NFL this year as both the Dolphins and Bills sit at 5-4. Obviously, a win here and a 7-3 record puts some space between the winner here and the rest of the pack. For the Pats, that would also give them one up on the Jets as they would have beaten them twice.

Remember when you were in grade school and the teacher would toss your lowest test score of the marking period before averaging your grade? Seems fair, right? Everyone has off days. Well, we can do the same thing when handicapping football games. Also fair. Hey, all teams have off days. In the case of he Pats and Jets you can toss two games each that don’t seem to if with the rest of the results. For the Jets were going to toss the Charger game and actually a win over the Cards. Why the win? Because the game was uncharacteristic of the way the Jets have played defensively this year at least as far as total points given up in a game and will distort the point we are getting at. But keep in mind that in that game, the Jets SHUT OUT the high powered Cardinals offense in the first half taking a 34-0 lead into the locker room at halftime. You can discount the entire 2nd half really. For the Pats we will toss the Charger game, a 30-10 loss and the Dolphin game early in the year, a 38-13 loss. Again, both uncharacteristic when compared to the season as a whole. Especially when considering, in the Pats case, they had just lost their franchise QB with Brady going down.

When we toss the two games for each team, we are left with two very similar teams with very similar results. For the Jets we have a team averaging 24 points per game on offense while giving up just 15. They gave up 24 to the Chiefs. Other than that they have held everyone to 19 points or less. For the Pats, we see a team averaging 23.5 points per game while giving up just 13 on average. Very good numbers for both teams. Numbers which would put them both among the NFL’s elite when just taking those numbers into consideration. The numbers ring true as far as the difference between these two teams because both have played a similar schedule. The Pats have had it a bit tougher only because they have faced the Colts already (who, by the way, are down a notch in case no one has noticed). Otherwise, you have games against the Chiefs, 49ers, Broncos, Rams and Bills. Likewise for the Jets. Bengals, Chiefs, Bills, Rams and the worst of all, a loss to the Raiders.

So, very similar results against very similar teams. Safe to say the Jets have performed a little better than the Pats offensively, and why not with Brett Favre having a little more time to learn the Jets schemes. The Pats have performed a little better then the Jets defensively, giving up 21 to the 49ers but holding the rest to 18 or less. Again, we are excluding those two games mentioned above. Brady going down is the difference in the Pats season to this point. The Pats are still the Pats at all other positions. They are still the Pats of a year ago defensively. Insert Brady and who knows what we’d be looking at offensively for the Pats thus far but you know it would be better than what Cassel has been able to do. That’s not a knock on Cassel. He’s done a fine job in an extremely tough spot. But it’s impossible to follow a hall of famer.

When these two played in New York back in September, it was Cassel’s first start, and Favre was still getting his feet wet with the Jets. Both offenses were at similar disadvantages and were limited. The game was fairly even statistically. Both teams had about 260 total yards which were evenly distributed among the pass and run. 60 yards in penalties for the Jets compared to 10 for the Pats hurt the Jets. Favre also had one key interception which the Pats converted to 7 points.

Big games like the one between these two Thursday Night always come down to one of two key mistakes in the end and in this case is likely to come down to the two men behind center, Favre and Cassel. Favre is one of the few guys in the sport that can win or lose games all by himself regardless of the supporting cast. We have seen that for close to two decades and the guy hasn’t lost much. Remember, he’s only 8 months removed from the NFC title game. He can hurt you as much as he can help you at times. He led the league in interceptions after week 10 which is not a category you want to top. But when push comes to shove, with everything on the line, who would you rather have on your side, Favre or Cassel?

The presence of Favres arm keeps defenses honest. With that long ball always a threat you can’t cheat to stop the run. Cassel is much less of a threat. He’s put in a position not to lose games with a ball control dink and dunk attack. The Jets defense ranks 5th in the NFL against the run allowing just 76 yards per game and are #2 in the NFL in sacks behind only the Steelers. With the Pats not likely to get the ball moving on the ground, it’s going to fall on Cassel’s arm.

The Jets on the other hand managed to average 5 yards per rush last time out against the Pats. Thomas Jones leads the AFC in rushing and again, with Favres arm strength keeping the defense honest, that is likely to continue Thursday Night. If the Jets are able to move the ball on the ground it will open up the passing game for Favre and once again, under those conditions, who would you rather have behind center, Favre or Cassel?

With the Jets ability to run the ball and stop the run, and with Favres ability to make big plays both down field and when he takes off and leaves the pocket the Jets would seem to have all the edges they need to spring the upset and take control of the AFC East in what amounts to the biggest game for this franchise in quite some time. Note that the Patriots have dominated this series in recent years having won 13 of 15. But there was one common denominator in those games…...Tom Brady. The tide turns Thursday Night. We’ll take the Jets. We are going to play half of our wager on the money line and half our wager at +3.5 -130.

So the Play is a 3* play which breaks down like this

1.5* Jets +140

1.5* Jets +3.5 -130

Wednesday 11-12 Service Plays

2008-11-12T06:23:57-08:00

SPORTS ADVISORS

Temple (3-6, 6-2-1 ATS) at Kent State (2-7, 2-5 ATS)

Two teams floundering in the Mid-American Conference hook up at Dix Stadium as Kent hosts Temple.

The Owls have alternated SU wins and losses in their last five games, including a devastating 33-27 overtime loss at Navy on Nov. 1. In that one, Temple held a 27-7 lead with less than 10 minutes to go in the fourth quarter before giving up 26 unanswered points, including a touchdown in overtime, to lose. Four of Temple’s last five games have been decided by 10, 6, 4 and 4 points, and the Owls are 1-3 in those contests.

Kent went to Bowling Green on Nov. 1 and lost 45-30 as a six-point road underdog. The Flashes, who have given up an average of 34.5 points per game in their last six contests, are mired in a 1-13 slump against Division I-A teams (2-12 ATS), including 1-11 against MAC rivals (2-10 ATS).

Temple dropped the Flashes 24-14 as a one-point home underdog last year, finishing with just 295 total yards but limiting Kent to a paltry 124 yards. In the only other meeting between the schools in 2006, Kent rolled 28-17, but the Owls easily cashed as a 23½-point road underdog.

In addition to its ongoing 2-12 ATS slump overall, the Flashes are stuck in pointspread funks of 1-8 at home, 3-13 in conference play, 2-11 against losing teams and 0-5 in November. On the flip side, Temple carries ATS streaks of 8-2-1 overall, 5-2 on the highway, 13-3-1 against the MAC, 4-1-1 against losing teams and 5-1-1 following a bye week.

For Temple, the under is on runs of 13-3 overall, 10-1 versus MAC foes, 4-0 on artificial turf, 6-0 against losing teams, 5-1 in November and 4-1-1 after a bye. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1 in Kent’s last six overall, including 4-1 in MAC play. However, the under is 11-5 in the Flashes’ last 16 home contests. Finally, last year’s head-to-head meeting at Temple stayed under the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TEMPLE and UNDER

Central Michigan (7-2, 5-3 ATS) at Northern Illinois (5-4, 5-3 ATS)

Northern Illinois looks to bounce back from last week’s blowout loss at Ball State when it hosts Central Michigan in another nationally televised prime-time MAC clash.

The Huskies saw their three-game winning streak come to an end in embarrassing fashion a week ago tonight, falling to undefeated Ball State 45-14 as an eight-point road underdog. Northern Illinois got outgained 529-275, produced just 12 first downs to Ball State’s 25 and committed the only two turnovers in the game.

Central Michigan stepped out of conference in its most recent contest on Nov. 1 and edged Indiana 37-34 as a two-point road underdog, the team’s fifth consecutive victory. During their winning streak, the Chippewas have averaged exactly 30 points per game, but given up 24.8 ppg, as all five victories have come by 10 points or less.

Central Michigan is 5-0 in MAC play (3-2 ATS) and sits a half-game behind Ball State in the West Division standings, while NIU is in fourth place in the West Division at 4-2 (3-3 ATS).

The Chippewas ended a nine-game losing streak to Northern Illinois in dominating fashion last year, winning 35-10 as a three-point home chalk. The Huskies actually outgained Central Michigan 521-381, but they committed six turnovers (four interceptions) and forced just one. Northern Illinois is still 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 battles in this rivalry, and the host is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six clashes. Finally, Central Michigan has failed to cover in five straight trips to Northern Illinois.

Central Michigan is on ATS tears of 29-10-3 overall, 6-2-2 on the road, 21-6-3 in MAC play, 4-1 as an underdog, 17-6-2 on artificial turf, 8-3 against winning teams and 17-6-2 following a spread-cover. Meanwhile, despite last week’s blowout loss to Ball State, the Huskies are still on ATS hot streaks of 8-3 overall, 5-1 in November and 5-2 on artificial turf.

For the Chippewas, the over is on runs of 12-5 overall, 16-5-1 on the road, 4-0 in November and 5-0 against winning teams. Conversely, Northern Illinois sports under streaks of 20-6-1 overall, 13-3-1 at home, 13-3-1 on artificial turf, 19-7-2 in conference action, 7-1 in November and 7-1 against winning teams. Also, the last two meetings between these schools have stayed low after the previous three topped the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

NBA

Atlanta (6-0, 5-1 ATS) at Boston (7-1, 4-4 ATS)

The Hawks return to the TD Banknorth Garden in Boston for the first time since they got eliminated in the first round of last year’s playoffs, and they do so as one of the NBA’s two remaining unbeaten teams.

Atlanta scored 29 points in each of the last three quarters at Chicago last night and held off the Bulls 113-108 as a four-point road underdog, with all five starters scoring in double figures, led by Al Horford’s 27 points. The Hawks are off to their best start since 1997-98, when they won their first 11 in a row, and they’re 4-0 on the road (3-1 ATS).

Boston rallied for its fifth straight victory on Monday, topping Toronto 94-87 but coming up just short as an 8½-point home chalk. The Celtics trailed 48-36 at the half before blowing out the Raptors 58-39 in the final 24 minutes, and they’re now 4-0 at home this season, but 1-3 ATS.

The Hawks took the top-seeded Celtics to the limit last May, but couldn’t secure what would’ve been the biggest upset in NBA playoff history, losing Game 7 in Boston 99-65 as a 14½-point road underdog. The home team went 7-0 SU and ATS in last year’s postseason clash, and including three regular-season meetings, the host went 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in this rivalry a year ago.

Atlanta’s 5-1 ATS start has all come against the Eastern Conference, and the team is also 5-2 ATS in its last seven against Atlantic Division foes. Meanwhile, Boston has failed to cash in 12 of its last 17 against Eastern Conference opponents, but otherwise the C’s are on pointspread streaks of 11-4 overall, 8-3 on Wednesdays and 5-1 when playing one day of rest.

For the Hawks, the under is on streaks of 5-2 overall and 4-1 on the road, but the over is 9-4 in the team’s last 13 Wednesday games and 5-2 in its last seven against the Atlantic Division. The Celtics have stayed low in six of its eight games this year. Also, the first five meetings between these teams last year (playoffs included) stayed under the total, but the over was 4-1 in the last five postseason contests.

Finally, the under is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head battles in Beantown.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON

L.A. Lakers (6-0, 5-1 ATS) at New Orleans (4-2, 2-3-1 ATS)

Two of the top teams in the Western Conference hook up for the first time this season, as Kobe Bryant and the unbeaten Lakers visit the Big Easy for a battle with Chris Paul and the Hornets.

Los Angeles went to Dallas last night and rallied from an eight-point halftime deficit to defeat the Mavericks 106-99, barely cashing as a 5½-point road favorite as they outscored Dallas 30-20 in the final quarter. The Lakers have scored at least 104 points in five straight games and four of their six wins have been double-digit blowouts.

The Hornets have been idle since Saturday when they snapped a two-game losing skid with a 100-89 rout of Dwyane Wade and the Heat, pushing as an 11-point home favorite. New Orleans is averaging 105 ppg in its four victories, but only 84 ppg in its two defeats.

These squads split their four meetings last year, with each team winning once at home and once on the road. The Hornets cashed in three of those four games and they’re 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes with Los Angeles. Also, the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven, the underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven and the SU winner has cashed in nine of the last 10 series battles.

In addition to starting the season on a 5-1 ATS tear, the Lakers are on pointspread runs of 23-10-1 on the road, 18-5-1 against the Western Conference, 5-1 against the Southwest Division and 6-2 when playing on back-to-back nights. New Orleans is also in the midst of several positive ATS runs, including 25-9-1 at home, 21-6 against the Pacific Division and 35-16-1 on Wednesdays.

The under is 7-3 in the Lakers’ last 10 against the Western Conference, 5-2 in their last seven against the Southwest Division, 2-1 on the road this year and 4-1 in the Hornets’ last five at home. However, the over is 10-4 in New Orleans’ last 14 games on Wednesday, 12-4 in the last 16 series meetings between these squads and 6-2 in the last series meetings in the Big Easy.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Houston (4-3, 2-5 ATS) at Phoenix (6-2, 5-3 ATS)

The Suns, who are off to a strong start under first-year coach Terry Porter, gun for their third straight victory when they host the Rockets at the US Airways Center.

Phoenix returned home from a four-game, five-day road trip on Sunday and outlasted the Grizzlies 107-102, but never threatened to cover as an 11½-point home chalk. It marked the first time all season that the SU winner failed to cover a pointspread in a Suns game. Phoenix has scored at least 103 points in all six of its victories, while averaging 89 points in its two defeats.

Houston started the season with three straight double-digit victories but has lost three of its last four. That includes Sunday’s embarrassing 111-82 loss at the Lakers as a seven-point road underdog, as the Rockets fell to 2-6 ATS since the end of last season (1-4 ATS in the last five). Houston has scored in triple digits just once in its last 16 games dating to the end of last year’s regular season.

These teams have alternated wins and losses in their last six meetings, with the home team going 4-2 SU during this stretch. However, going back to the 2005-06 season, the Suns are 9-2 ATS against the Rockets (4-1 ATS at home), and the favorite has cashed in seven of the last 10 series meetings. Lastly, going back several years, the visitor is 20-9 ATS in this rivalry.

The Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against the Western Conference, but they had cashed in four straight versus the Pacific Division before Sunday’s loss to the Lakers. Meanwhile, the Suns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a non-cover.

The over is 4-1 in Houston’s last five road games, 6-2 in Phoenix’s last six overall, 4-1 in Phoenix’s last five at home and 10-3 in Phoenix’s last 13 games on Wednesday. However, five of the last six Rockets-Suns battles in the desert have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX

Tuesday 11-11 Service Plays

2008-11-11T06:25:32-08:00

SPORTS ADVISORS

(14) Ball State (9-0, 7-1 ATS) at Miami (Ohio) (2-7, 3-5 ATS)

Ball State’s quest for a perfect season and a BCS Bowl berth continues when it travels to Miami (Ohio) for Mid-American Conference clash against the slumping Redhawks.

The Cardinals had no trouble with Northern Illinois on Wednesday, rolling to a 45-14 victory as an eight-point home favorite. Ball State dominated in all phases of the victory, finishing with a 529-275 edge in total offense (219-160 in rushing) and a 25-12 advantage in first downs. All nine of the Cardinals’ wins this year have come by double digits, and they’ve outscored their last four foes by a margin of 138-37.

Miami (Ohio) went to Buffalo a week ago tonight and got spanked 37-17, falling well short as an 8½-point road underdog. The Redhawks got outgained 476-383 (216-142 on the ground) and committed the game’s only two turnovers. They’re now 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against Division I-A foes and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 lined contests dating to 2007. Also, six of Miami’s seven defeats this season have been double-digit blowouts.

The visitor has dominated this rivalry, winning six straight meetings and eight of the last 10 dating back to 1994. Also, the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five clashes and 8-2 ATS in the last 10. Last season, the Redhawks went to Ball State and scored a 14-13 upset as a four-point road pup, but Ball State has prevailed in its last two trips to Miami (2-0 ATS), winning those two contests by a combined eight points.

Ball State is 5-0 (4-1 ATS) in MAC play, tied with Central Michigan in the West Division. On the other hand, Miami (Ohio) is tied for fifth in the East Division at 1-4 (2-3 ATS).

Ball State, which has outgained all nine opponents this season, is averaging 38.3 points and 458.4 total yards per game (194 rushing ypg) while giving up 15.3 points and 342.6 yards per outing (157 rushing ypg). Conversely, Miami (Ohio) has put up just 18.3 points and 327.2 total yards per game (117.1 rushing ypg) while allowing 31 points and 359 total ypg (178 rushing ypg).

The Cardinals are on a bunch of positive ATS runs, including 28-11 overall, 19-7 on the road, 9-3 against losing teams, 4-1 in MAC action, 10-3 versus losing teams and 9-3 in November. On the flip side, in addition to its ongoing 3-9 ATS slump overall, Miami is in pointspread funks of 0-6 at home, 2-8 in MAC play, 0-5 in November and 1-8 when playing on grass. The Redhawks’ only positive trend: It has cashed in 14 of its last 20 against winning teams.

The under is 5-1 in Ball State’s last six November contests, 5-1 in Miami’s last six MAC battles and 3-0 in the last three series meetings between these schools.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BALL STATE and UNDER

NBA

Atlanta (5-0, 4-1 ATS) at Chicago (3-4, 4-3 ATS)

Off to their best start in more than a decade, the Hawks try to remain the only unbeaten team in the Eastern Conference when they invade the United Center for a battle with the Bulls.

The Hawks faced their toughest test of the young season on Sunday at Oklahoma City but outscored the Thunder 31-23 in the fourth quarter to pull out an 89-85 victory, coming up just short as a 4½-point road chalk for its first non-cover of the season. The last time Atlanta began a season with at least five straight wins was back in 1997-98, when it started off 11-0. The Hawks are averaging 96 points per game and allowing 85.8 ppg and out-shooting opponents by an average of five percentage points (44.3-39.2).

The Bulls enter tonight in a 1-3 slump (2-2 ATS), most recently falling 106-97 to Cleveland on Saturday as a two-point home underdog, the team’s first defeat at the United Center this year. Chicago has been held under triple digits in five of its last six games.

These teams split four meetings last year, with the host winning each time. However, the Bulls went 3-1 ATS in the season series a year ago and they’re 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings (4-0 at home), 6-1 ATS in the last six clashes overall and 6-1 ATS in the last seven battles in the Windy City. Lastly, the favorite has cashed in five of the past six head-to-head tussles.

Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road contests, 2-5 ATS in its last seven against the Central Division and has failed to cash in five straight Tuesday affairs. Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Southeast Division and 1-6 ATS in its last seven when going on two days’ rest, but 5-2 ATS in its last seven on Tuesday and 4-0 ATS in its last four after a non-cover.

The under is on streaks of 5-1 overall for Atlanta, 4-0 on the road for Atlanta (3-0 this year), 10-4 for Chicago overall, 7-2 for Chicago at home, 5-0 for Chicago against the Southeast Division and 7-3 for Chicago on Tuesdays. Finally, the last four meetings between these teams at the United Center have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO and UNDER

L.A. Lakers (5-0, 4-1 ATS) at Dallas (2-4 SU and ATS)

The Lakers shoot for their sixth straight win to begin the season when they travel to Dallas to battle the struggling Mavericks.

Los Angeles has blown out four of its first five opponents by double digits, with the most impressive victory coming Sunday against the Rockets, as the Lakers cruised 111-82 as a seven-point home chalk. L.A. has scored at least 104 points in four straight games and is winning by an average margin of 23 points per game (107-84) while out-shooting the opposition 45.4 percent to 39 percent (47 percent to 34.2 percent from three-point range).

Hours before the Lakers pummeled the Rockets at the Staples Center on Sunday, the Mavericks became the first team this season to lose to the Clippers, falling 103-92 as a five-point road chalk. The Mavericks went 1-2 SU and ATS on their three-game road trip to San Antonio, Denver and Los Angeles, and they’ve dropped their first two home contests by double digits, losing 112-102 to Houston and 100-81 to Cleveland.

The Lakers went 3-1 against Dallas last season, but 1-2-1 ATS. The host has won eight of the last 10 clashes overall, but the visitor went 3-0-1 ATS last season. Also, the underdog has cashed at a 10-3-1 clip in the last 14 meetings.

Going back to last season, the Lakers are on ATS runs of 22-10-1 on the road, 17-5-1 against the Western Conference, 12-5 on Tuesdays, 4-1 against the Southwest Division and 8-1 after a double-digit victory. Dallas is in ATS slides of 5-11 overall, 3-9 at home, 3-8 on Tuesdays and 2-6 when playing on one day of rest, but the Mavs had cashed in four straight against the Pacific Division before Sunday’s upset loss to the Clippers.

For Los Angeles, the under is on runs of 2-0 on the road this year, 7-2 against the Western Conference, 5-1 versus the Southwest Division and 6-1 when playing on one day of rest. Also, Dallas sports under streaks of 9-3 at home, 4-1 after one day of rest and 11-4-1 on Tuesdays.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and UNDER

Monday 11-10 Service Plays

2008-11-10T06:30:18-08:00

EROCKMONEY

NFL Week 10
Under 47 San Francisco at Arizona

Sunday 11-9 Service Plays

2008-11-09T06:38:47-08:00

Ben Burns

Game: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: Under

This is the biggest total on the board and I feel that its a little on the high side. We know the Saints are capable of putting up pretty big numbers on offense. However, they’re typically not quite as deadly on the road and they’ve averaged only 15.5 points in their two divisional games. This week, they’ll face an Atlanta defense which is coming off a shutout in its last game and which is allowing an average of just 15.7 points its last three outings. the Falcons are currently listed as very slight favorites (although this may change by gametime) which is worth noting as we find the ‘under’ at 10-2-1 the last 13 times that the Falcons were laying points. Three of the last four series meetings fell below the total and none of them produced more than 48 combined points. Consider the UNDER

Saturday 11-8 Service Plays

2008-11-08T06:52:36-08:00

Dr. Vegas

Penn State vs Iowa

Third-ranked Penn State takes their perfect 8-0 record on the road, traveling to Iowa City, Iowa to take on the middle-of-the-pack Hawkeyes. Iowa has a barely-over-.500 straight up 5-4 record, and a 4-4 record against the number. Penn State’s 6-1-1 ATS record is every bit as impressive as their straight up number. For an 8-0 team to have this solid of an ATS record means Vegas has not been able to adjust the line enough to compensate. In fact, their one ATS loss was a 14-point win in a game they were favored by 15. The Nittany Lions have been a great value all season long. The big question is if Vegas will continue to adjust until Penn State is no longer a good value.

Penn State has scored the most points in the Big 10, at 310. They have also given up the least amount of points in the conference, at 90. Road trips in no way seem to affect them. They’re winning road games by an average of 26 points, compared to home wins averaging 29-point victories.

Looking further into the numbers, and the Dr. Vegas Exclusive Power Ratings, we find Penn State with a +8.7 mark and an opponent ratings of -4.3. Iowa has a +0.2 PR and an opponent rating of -5.2. In other words, Penn State has performed much better against stronger opponents than Iowa has faced.

Iowa is coming off of a 3-point loss to fellow mid-field Big 10 foe, Illinois. Penn State is not only rested after a bye week, but that follows a 13-6 victory over Big 10 and then-Top 10 rival Ohio State.

The bottom line on this game is that Penn State is on top of their game, have remained focused, and have toppled much more capable opponents.

Additional notes of info: The last time these two teams met was October 6, 2007. Penn State was favored by 9 and easily won by 20… The line opened at Penn State -8. It has dropped as low as -7, but as of this writing is at -7.5… Penn State QB Daryll Clark suffered a mild concussion in the Ohio State game but is expected to play on Saturday.

Take Penn State -7.5 over Iowa.

Friday 11-7 Service Plays

2008-11-07T06:30:24-08:00

SPORTS ADVISORS

Nevada (4-4, 3-4 ATS) at Fresno State (5-3, 1-7 ATS)

Fresno State looks to continue its recent domination of Nevada when these two Western Athletic Conference rivals clash at Bulldog Stadium.

Fresno State has won eight of the last nine meetings with the Wolf Pack, going 4-2-1 ATS in the last seven. Last year, the Bulldogs went to Reno and earned a 49-41 win as three-point road ‘dogs, this after scoring a 28-19 home victory in 2006, failing to cash as 13-point favorites. The straight-up winner is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between these schools.

Nevada had last weekend off after traveling to Hawaii for an Oct. 25 game that saw the Wolf Pack fall 38-31 as 3½-point road favorites. Despite that setback, Nevada’s offense has been clicking all season, coming in ranked sixth in the country in total offense (513.8 yards per game) and second in rushing (304.8 ypg). QB Colin Kaepernick leads the attack having thrown for 1,521 yards and 12 TDs while also running for 740 yards and 12 TDs.

The Bulldogs fell at Louisiana Tech on Saturday 38-35 as a 4½-point road chalk, the seventh straight non-cover for Fresno, whose last spread-cover came in a season-opening 24-7 upset at Rutgers. Pat Hill’s squad puts up 33 points and 420.4 total yards per game, with QB Tom Brandstater enjoying a solid campaign, throwing for 1,791 yards, 15 TDs and six INTs. However, thee Bulldogs’ problem has come on defense where they allow 29.4 points a game and 405.8 yards, including 208.1 ypg on the ground.

The Wolf Pack are on ATS slides of 2-6 on the road and 1-5 on the road against teams with a winning home record, but they sport pointspread runs of 12-3 following a non-cover and 11-4 after a straight-up loss. Meanwhile, Fresno State has been a disaster for bettors, currently on ATS slides of 9-26 overall, 3-13 at home, 5-17 in WAC games, 3-7 in November, 0-5 in Friday games and 7-21 following a non-cover.

Nevada has topped the total in its last eight road games against teams with a winning home mark, but otherwise the Wolf Pack are on under runs of 5-2 in conference games and 6-1 in November contests. For Fresno State, the over is on streaks of 5-0-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 6-0-1 after a non-cover and 4-0 after a straight-up loss. Lastly, in this rivalry, the over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEVADA

NBA

Toronto (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) at Atlanta (3-0 SU and ATS)

Two teams off to surprisingly hot starts this season square off in Atlanta when the Hawks host the Raptors in an Eastern Conference matchup.

The Hawks have opened with three straight wins for the first time in 11 years, with two of the victories coming on the highway. On Wednesday, Atlanta went to New Orleans and upset the Hornets 87-79 as 8 ½-point underdogs. The Hawks’ lone home game was a 95-88 victory Saturday over the Sixers as 2½-point favorites. Defense has been the key for Atlanta, limiting the opposition to 84 points a game and 39.9 percent shooting from the field.

The Raptors opened the season with three straight wins before falling to Detroit 100-93 on Wednesday as a 3½-point home chalk. Toronto is 2-0 SU and ATS on the road so far, including a 91-87 win in Milwaukee on Saturday as a one-point ‘dog. The Raptors are shooting 47.1 percent from the floor this season and 50.8 percent from the three-point line.

Toronto took two of three from the Hawks last season (2-1 ATS) but Atlanta won a shootout at home on April 2, winning 127-120 in overtime as a 1½-point favorite. The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 6-4 SU and ATS in the last 10. The straight-up winner is a perfect 10-0 ATS in this series dating back to 2005.

Going back to last season the Raptors are 38-18-2 ATS in their last 58 against Southeast Division teams, but they are on ATS slides of 11-24 overall, 7-19 after a day of rest, 4-11 on the road and 1-10 in Friday contests. Meanwhile the Hawks are on ATS streaks of 4-0 at home and 5-2 against teams from the Eastern Conference.

For Toronto, the under is on runs of 11-4-1 overall, 6-2 on the road, 5-1 against the Eastern Conference, 10-3-1 after a straight-up loss and 5-2 against Southeast Division foes. Atlanta has stayed under the total in its last four overall and five of their last seven after a spread-cover, but the over is on streaks of 9-2 at home, 10-1 after getting a day off and 5-0 on Fridays. In head-to-head meetings, the over is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings, including 6-1 in the last seven in Atlanta.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA

Miami (2-2 SU and ATS) at San Antonio (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS)

The Spurs finally got in the win column on Wednesday and now look to make it two in a row when they host the Heat.

San Antonio opened the campaign with three straight losses (0-3 ATS), including two at home, but it gutted out a 129-125 overtime win in Minnesota two nights ago. Tony Parker was a one-man wrecking crew against the T’Wolves, putting up 55 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds, but the Spurs still came up short as a 4 ½-point favorite.

Dating back to the playoffs last season, the Spurs had dropped five straight games before Wednesday and they remain in an 0-6 ATS funk.

Miami has alternated wins and losses this season and comes into this one off a 106-83 win over the Sixers on Wednesday as three-point ‘dogs. Dwyane Wade put up 29 points and pulled in seven rebounds to lead Miami to the win against Philadelphia.

The Spurs have won five of the last six meetings against Miami (3-3 ATS) and eight of the last 10 (4-5-1 ATS) dating back to 2003. San Antonio won both matchups last season but failed to cash in either one. The Spurs got an 88-78 home win as 11 ½-point favorites and scored a 90-89 road win as a 9 ½-point chalk. The home team is 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings and the straight-up winner is 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.

The Heat are on ATS slides of 2-5 against Southwest Division teams and 7-20-1 following a straight-up win, but they are on ATS streaks of 7-2 overall, 4-1 on Fridays, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-0 when getting a day off. Meanwhile the Spurs are riding ATS slides of 0-4 after a non-cover and 1-4 after a day off, but they are 4-0 ATS in their last four against the Southeast Division.

For Miami, the under is on streaks of 19-7 overall, 19-7 after a spread-cover, 4-0 against the Western Conference and 4-1 against the Southwest Division. It’s been all unders for San Antonio as well, including 9-3 overall, 7-1 on a day of rest, 4-1 at home and 5-0-1 after a straight-up win. When these two meet, the under is 14-2 in the last 16 meetings, including 7-1 in Texas.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Dallas (2-2 SU and ATS) at Denver (1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS)

The Nuggets are scheduled to finally trot out their two new acquisitions tonight when the Mavericks visit the Mile High City in a Western Conference matchup.

Denver made an early-season blockbuster trade this week, sending Allen Iverson to Detroit for Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess. The trade comes on the heels of consecutive losses for the Nuggets, including a 104-97 home setback to the Lakers as 8½-point ‘dogs on Saturday then a 111-101 loss at Golden State Wednesday with an undermanned roster as 3 ½-point underdogs.

The Mavericks, who have alternated wins and losses this season, come into this one off Wednesday’s 98-81 road win in San Antonio as 4½-point underdogs. Dallas is 2-0 (SU and ATS) on the road this season, holding the opposition to 83 points a game while allowing 106 per contest at home. Dirk Nowitzki (30) and Jason Terry (29) combined for 59 points against the Spurs.

Denver took two of three from the Mavericks last season (3-0 ATS), including a 118-105 home win as an 8½-point favorite. The Nuggets are 3-1 SU (4-0 ATS) in the last five series clashes and 6-4 ATS in the last 10. Finally, the straight-up winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

Dallas is in ATS slumps of 0-6 after a straight-up win and 1-6 against Northwest Division teams, but they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Friday games and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a losing home record. Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against Southwest Division teams and 4-0 ATS in its last four Friday contests, but otherwise the Nuggets are on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 2-6 against Western Conference teams, 1-4 at home and 0-4 following a non-cover.

For the Mavericks, the under is on runs of 51-22 against Northwest Division teams, 6-1 overall, 8-3-1 on Fridays and 5-1 against the Western Conference. Denver has topped the total in seven straight Friday games, but the under is on runs of 9-3 overall, 20-8 against Southwest Division teams, 9-3 against Western Conference and 4-0 at home. In this rivalry, the under is 11-5 in the last 16 series clashes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

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Troy Polamalu Touchdown Taken Off Board-Chargers Cover +5

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