Thursday 7/17 Service Plays
top dollar (GOLD MEMBER) 4 months ago
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24 responses
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TopSportsBets.com Other Service Plays
Alex Smart
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals Under 7.5
The ‘Under’ has held a distinct advantage in the first game back after the All-Star break, managing a highly profitable 57-33-5 record since the 2000 season. Breakdown per year 8-6-1 Under in 2000 9-6 Under in 2001 7-5-1 Under in 2002 8-6 Under in 2003 11-0-1 Under in 2004 8-4-1 Under in 2005 3-4 Under in 2006 3-2-1 Under in 2007 That’s seven winning seasons out of eight. Coincidence? ...... Maybe and maybe not. When I notice an obvious trend, such as the Under going 57-33-5 the day after the All-Star Break from 2000-2007, I always try and determine it’s cause. Is there a logical reason for the trend? Or, could it be random coincidence or an anomaly. Don’t forget that if you flip a coin enough times, you’ll inevitably get some runs of 54-31 for both heads and tails. In this case, I felt that that I was looking at more than just pure coincidence. When searching for why this may be the case, my first initial thought was that the Under probably had done so well due to the fact that teams were often able to shuffle their starting rotation for the best match-ups or going with their #1 starter, unless he had just pitched in the All-Star Game. However, I quickly dismissed these lines of thought as the linemakers would have already factored the starting pitchers into their lines and adjusted them lower accordingly, especially with the aces on the mound. Instead, I concluded that the Under probably had been so profitable due to the fact that the hitters must become somewhat rusty after having a few days off. Starting pitchers are used to having numerous days off in between starts. Batters, on the other hand, rarely have consecutive days off. Some, of course, aren’t affected by the layoff but others clearly are. The same ‘Under’ tendencies appear for teams that play their first game a day later than other’s after the All-Star break. I have the numbers for these, tilts and will possibly release a big play if the all the factors look right. With those under tendencies on our side, I have isolated a situation that sets up nicely to stay on the low side of the number.
The light hitting San Diego Padres visit the St.Louis Cardinals in pitcher friendly Busch Stadium this Thursday night. Kyle Lohse(11-2,3.39 ERA) the Cards starting hurler is in red hot form , and in his L/5 starts ,has garnered a 3-0 record along with a tight 2.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP . He has been particularly tough on opposing offenses this season at home , where in 11 starts he is 5-1, along with a stingy 2.75 ERA, 1.01 WHIP. Meanwhile the visiting San Diego Padres , will send the ace of their staff Jake Peavy ( 7-5,2.47 ERA) to the hill in response. In his L6 starts he has allowed a total of 7 ER’s , and Im expecting another stingy performance in this spot against a Cards team that has only averaged 4.1 RPG at home this season. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 10-1-1 in Padres last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 9-2 in Padres last 11 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 . Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in this series. Play Under
Responses
Robert Ross
New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
Mets have won nine straight but winning in Cincinnati versus the Reds (winner of 7-of-10) is a bit more difficult than beating San Francisco and Colorado at home. Reds lost their last before the break, setting up a situational play that says to Play On – Home teams (CINCINNATI) – after a loss against opponent after 8 or more consecutive wins (30-12 over the last 5 seasons, 71.4%). Take Cincinnati!
Jimmy The Moose
Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
With a 21-10 record over their last 31 games the Tigers have clawed their way back to the 500 mark. Detroit is 22-6 in their last 28 games as a favorite. In their last 10 games as a road favorite they are 9-1. Detroit is 44-20 in their last 64 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Tigers have won 4 of Rogers last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Baltimore has lost 7 of their last 8 games. The are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home dog. The Orioles are 5-14 in their last 19 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Tigers have won the last 5 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Detroit Tigers
Matt Fargo
San Diego Padres vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
St. Louis didn’t exactly leave the first half on a solid run but it remains in position to hang around with the Cubs in the National League Central. The Cardinals trail Chicago by 4.5 games and the goal right now is to take care of business at home where they are 26-21 on the season. The offense put up two 11-run games before the break and it is hitting .283 over the last 10 games. St. Louis has won 27 of the last 36 meetings against the Padres at home.
San Diego started the season slow and has never recovered, going 7-20 over its last 27 games. The Padres have been bad at both home and the road but away games have really taken their toll as they are 14-28 on the season. The offense is to blame as the bats are hitting only .246 on the season and their 3.7 rpg is the second worst average in all of baseball. San Diego is just 15-39 in its last 54 games against a team with a winning record including a horrid 8-23 mark on the road.
You take a look at this number and see Jake Peavy next to it and it looks like easy money. While that may have been the case over the last couple season, it is not the case this year. While he has put together a 1.45 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in nine home starts, in six road outings, he has a 4.41 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The Padres have won three of those games, mostly due to generous run support. At this stage however, don’t expect that. He has a 6.18 ERA over his last five starts against the Cardinals.
I’m not exactly sure what happened to Kyle Lohse this season, but whatever he did in the offseason should be kept secret. He has been outstanding following disastrous seasons the last two years. After posting a 2.36 ERA in six April starts, it looked as though he came back to reality, allowing 19 runs in his first three May starts. But he went right back at it, posting a 2.25 ERA over his last 11 starts with nine of those being quality outings and one falling short due to lack of innings. He now faces the anemic Padres offense. Play St. Louis Cardinals 1.5 Units
Tony George
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Detroit Tigers
Tony George says take the Tigers on the road in this one. Detroit is a very bankable favorite, cashing in a winning ticket for their backers 22 out of the last 28 games when laying chalk. Considering the line here, which is chaep for a “better team”, and the fact that Baltimore is 1-7 in their last 8 games, the oddsmakers left some room here for a cheap favorite. Dertoit is no juggernaut, but they are worth the stretch here.
Lefty Kenny Rogers takes the hill for the visiting Tigers, with a 6-6 record and not much to brag about with a 4.63 ERA, but I cannot back the O’s at home with a 2-8 record their last 10 overall, and Olsen who takes the mound for the O’s has posted a whopping 8.36 ERA and a WHIP of 2.14 in his last 3 starts. The KEY here is the fact the bullpen is better for Detroit.
Play on the Tigers
Tom Freese
New York at Cincinnati
New York is 10-1 their last 11 games and they are 7-0 their last 7 games vs. losing teams. The Mets are 20-7 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 46-21 off a day off. Johann Santana is 6-2 in Game 1 of a series. Cincinnati is 26-58 their last 84 home games as dogs of $110 to $150. The Reds are 2-6 in the last 8 starts made by Johnny Cueto has an underdog and they are 2-6 their last 8 games vs. the Mets. PLAY ON NY METS
Big Al Mcmordie
San Diego Padres at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
At 8:15pm our member selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the San Diego Padres. Less than a year after San Diego ace Jake Peavy won the pitching triple crown for being the National League leader in ERA, wins, and strikeouts, Peavy not only isn’t atop the leader board in any of those categories, but he was not even on Tuesday’s NL All Star roster. It’s not just the fact that Peavy was hurt for almost a month of the first half of the season, but more importantly, it’s his team that has dragged Peavy down. The 2008 version of the San Diego Padres is a much worse ballclub than the 2007 version. Last year, the Padres had 49 wins at the break. This year, they are twelve wins behind that pace and their record is almost a complete reversal of last season’s pre-break tally. Anyway you slice it, the first half has been a disaster for San Diego. They have a losing record at home and an even worse one on the road, where they have only won fourteen times. They have numerous injuries and their normally reliable relief pitching has been suspect at best and is really starting to show it’s age. San Diego has a dismal 9-27 record in their lst 36 games in St. Louis and they are 20-50 in their last 70 meetings overall. Cardinal righthander Kyle Lohse may be no Jake Peavy but he has an incredible 11-2 record for the Cards this year and is opening up the second half pitching at home (in next year’s All Star Game venue) against one of the worst teams in the league. Take the Cards.
Scott Ferrall
ORIOLES (even odds) over Detroit—Balitmore gets it done at Camden. Olson over Kenny Rogers to start the second half. The O’s have been good at home and the Tigers stink on the road (8 games under .500) OVER 8.5 RUNS
MATT RIVERS
For Thursday take the Mets in Cincinnati.
This is a total bottom of the barrel play, let me make that perfectly clear. With such a small slate and using two quality games as pay plays that leaves me with either the game from Busch or here from Great American. I could not really rationalize going against Jake Peavy or backing his gutless Padres so here we are.
The Reds have issues against lefthanding pitching and today they are up against one of the best in the game in Johan Santana. Don’t let the wins and losses fool you as the former Twin hurler is still as good as they come and with the Mets playing some red hot ball of late I will make a tiny play on them here.
Cincinnati certainly is a capable team at home and closed out the first half fairly well. But they feature a ton of lefthanded power which seems to get neutralized by Southpaws and with the confidence the Mets have been exuding why not ride the wave
Johnny Cueto should be tough as the young righty is not that bad at all but I’ll take my chances with the visitors led by Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado and others
MICHAEL CANNON
Take the Mets for the road win tonight over the Reds.
The Mets were the hottest team in baseball before the All-Star break, having won nine straight games.
I dont see them cooling off tonight behind their ace, Johan Santana.
Santana is 8-7 on the year with a 2.84 ERA. His won-loss record doesnt reflect how well hes pitched lately, however. The left-hander was 0-4 with a 2.48 ERA in six starts before he won his last outing, a 5-0 win over San Francisco on July 9.
The Reds will counter with rookie Johnny Cueto, who is 7-9 with a 4.67 ERA on the year. The right-hander was pounded for six runs on eight hits in 4 2-3 innings against the Mets on May 11, an 8-3 loss.
Take the Mets as they stretch their winning streak to 10 games.
2♦ NEW YORK METS
BOBBY MAXWELL
Today we’ve got a winner coming on the Mets as they visit Cincinnati to take on the Reds.
The Mets went into the All-Star break on a roll and we expect them to come out of it just as hot. Their bats were on fire and they’d put together a strong nine-game winning streak, including scoring five or more runs in six of the nine wins and giving up three or less in seven of the nine
We’ll play them big tonight as Johan Santana (8-7, 2.84 ERA) is on the mound for New York. He’s pitched well this season just hasn’t always gotten the run support he needs. The Mets are on runs of 6-2 when Santana opens a series, 7-0 agaisnt losing teams and an impressive 46-21 coming back from an off day.
The Reds are starting rookie Johnny Cueto (7-9, 4.67) who lost July 9 against the Cubs, giving up five runs on eight hits in 6.2 innings of a 5-1 loss. He is a mediocre 5-5 in his last 10 starts. Cueto has a 4.08 ERA in 10 home starts and against the Mets on May 11 he allowed six runs on eight hits in 4.2 innings of an 8-3 road loss.
Santana has a 3.01 ERA on the road this season and expect him to come out and get the Mets started off on the right foot for the second half of the season. This is a good team and now that they’ve got a little success, they’ll climb back into the N.L. East race.
Play Santana and New York in this one.
4♦ N.Y. METS
JIM FEIST
The red hot Mets ended the first half of the season by winning nine straight games and finding themselves just one half game behind Philadelphia for the NL East lead. Johan Santana hasn’t pitched like the Mets had hoped he would when they signed him in the off season. He’s just 8-7 on the year with a 2.84 era. However, he’s been keeping the club in games, evidenced by allowing three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts. Johnny Cueto starts for the Reds and after a fast start to the season he’s cooled off. Cueto has lost four of his last six starts. Can’t go against the Mets right now as they are the hottest team in baseball. We expect them to pick up right where they left off the first half of the season.
DAVE COKIN
The Tigers look poised to make a serious run in the AL Central as they’ve finally been getting some reasonable pitching. The offense seems healthy enough now, and they get Magglio Ordonez back from the DL tonight as well. Garrett Olson is getting tattooed big time lately, and the punishment should continue here. I’ll back Kenny Rogers and the Tigers
TONY MATHEWS
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Selection: New York/Cincinnati Under 8
The New York Mets will use starting pitcher Johan Santana. Johan Santana has pitched well this season. In fact, Johan Santana has a 2.84 ERA on the season. In addition, Johan Santana has a 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Johan Santana pitching another great game today.
The Cincinnati Reds will use starting pitcher Johnny Cueto. Johnny Cueto has been pitching well as of late. In fact, Johnny Cueto has a 3.15 ERA in his last 3 starts. We also see Johnny Cueto pitching another great game today.
The bottom line, we see very little scoring happening in today’s game.
Take the New York Mets/Cincinnati Reds Under 8
JOHN FINA
Selection: San Diego/St. Louis Under 7.5
Today we see a low-scoring game as the San Diego Padres do battle with the St. Louis Cardinals. One reason why we see a low-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound starting pitchers who have been pitching very well as of late. This says it all… The San Diego Padres Starting Pitcher (Jake Peavy) has a 1.35 ERA in his last 3 starts, while St. Louis Cardinals Starting Pitcher (Kyle Lohse) has a 0.86 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, both these teams will be sending to the mound solid starting pitchers. The Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings between these teams, we expect to see another low-scoring game tonight! Take the San Diego Padres/St. Louis Cardinals Under 7.5
JB’s Computer Picks
Baltimore Orioles -110
St. Louis Cardinals -125
STU FINER
Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
We do not like the way the Detroit Tigers finished up before the break folks. There was a time where the Tigers had finally got it going. They came all the way back to become .500 and above. You have to remember the Tigers started out atrocious but as we said they played good ball for a long time.
The Tigers had a very important home series to close out the break. They had a four game set against the Twins. This wasn’t just any four game series folks. This was a series against a rival that they are chasing. They needed this series. At worst they needed a home split and get out of there.
Detroit lost the series in tough fashion. The Tigers lost the first three games all by one run. The Twins bull-pen and late clutch hitting was very evident in this series.
The Baltimore Orioles are a very good home baseball team folks. The Orioles are 25-16 in their building and are rested and ready to go. Look for the Tigers to still stumble and the Orioles to still surprise.
Baltimore Orioles (-)
National League
New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
The Mets are one of the few teams that didn’t want to have a break. Most teams are looking forward to getting to the all-star break; the Mets on the other hand wished they played another week. In all-star interviews Wagner and Wright both said that they wished the all-star break would come next week.
The reason why the Mets wanted to continue on was their fantastic play the last week plus. This was a team that was sputtering around all season. They had to fire their manager and their pitching coach but they finally got their act together. Tonight is a different story though.
The Mets have won nine straight, but six of those nine came at home against two teams that are a combined 25 games under .500 (Rockies and Giants). Johnny Cueto is the real deal and at home the Reds will get the job done. Santana gives up the gopher ball and in this park you don’t need much to put it out. Take the Reds, this line is too good to pass up.
Cincinnati Reds (+)
San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals
It is time for the clock to strike midnight for Kyle Lohse folks. This is a pitcher that hasn’t won more than ten games in five years folks. For his career heading in to this season Kyle is eleven games under .500. He has never had an ERA in the three’s in his life. In fact he has had ERA’s closer to 5.00 than his current mark this season.
Kyle has now pitched 120 innings this season, it is that time of the year where those innings take their toll. Last season Kyle pitched just 131 innings, the season prior Kyle only pitched sixty one. Kyle has not pitched over the 175 inning mark since 2005 when he was a member of the Minnesota Twins.
Jake Peavy has been the lone bright spot on this pitching staff. This guy is still a guy that you can count on each and every time out there. Jake will pick up right where he left off. Peavy allowed just seven hits in his last two starts and no earned runs. Jake will improve his mark to 8-5 this season. The Padres will get the first game back.
San Diego Padres (+)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
Ubaldo Jimenez goes tonight the Rockies and he has been there second best pitcher by far. Aarron Cook is the Rockies ace, as we saw him throw very well in the All-Star game last night and even get out of a bases load jam. Ubaldo actually has better stuff than Mr. Cook.
Jimenez has been throwing the ball very well in his last few starts. We feel that this break will only be a shot in the arm for Ubaldo. He has allowed a total of just four runs in his last three starts, all of which have been quality.
Jimenez has an ERA all the way down to the low four’s. Sure his record is bad but the Rockies had a first half to forget. They still play decent at home and Jimenez still loves his home mound. Ubaldo is 3-2 at home with an ERA of just 2.67. Look for the Rockies to get the job done here tonight at home.
Colorado Rockies
Matty O’Shea
COL -1.5 (+150) vs PIT
Believe it or not, the defending National League champion Rockies still have an outside shot to win the NL West despite a very disappointing first half of the season. Colorado now has a clean slate to work with heading into the second half, and I think this team will start a positive run right away against the Pirates in the opener of a four-game series. Pittsburgh starting pitcher Paul Maholm has been hot lately, but the southpaw is just 1-4 in eight road starts with a 4.81 ERA. The Rockies are hitting .303 against lefties at home and will send righty Ubaldo Jimenez to the mound in search of his third straight home win. Jimenez has seen his teammates win his last two home starts by a combined score of 15-2, and he has allowed just two runs in 14.1 innings of work during that stretch. In addition, 11 of Colorado’s last 14 home wins have been decided by two runs or more. Take a shot with the Rox on the runline here as my Single Dime MLB Value Play O’ the Day.
DUNKEL
The Mets start the second half with a nine-game winning streak, but come into Cincinnati with just a 4-7 record as a road favorite between -125 and -150. The Reds are the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has Cincinnati favored straight up by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+135). Here are all of today’s games.
THURSDAY, JULY 17
Game 951-952: NY Mets at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 16.512; Cincinnati (Cueto) 16.641
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+135); Over
Game 953-954: San Diego at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Peavy) 14.754; St. Louis (Lohse) 14.215
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-105); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-105); Under
Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.562; Colorado (Jimenez) 13.487
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Over
Game 957-958: Detroit at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Rogers) 15.045; Baltimore (Olson) 16.122
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Over
Jeff Scott Sports
2 UNIT PLAY
BALTIMORE/ Detroit Over 10
The Over is 9-3-1 in Rogers’ last 13 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 9-1-1 in his last 11 starts as a road favorite, while the Over is 20-8-3 in Orioles last 31 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 5-1-1 in Olsons last 7 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Here another little trend for you: The Over is 9-1-1 in the last 11 game 1’s on a series for Baltimore, with the average total runs being 12 rpg, including a 4-0 Over mark in their last 4 home series openers, with the total runs scored there being 12.8 rpg. Only one of those 11 in this trend has failed to score 10 runs or more. Baltimore comes in having scored 5.4 rpg in their last 7 games, but the have given up 7.1 rpg over that same stretch. The Orioles also put 5.1 rpg on the board at home and 5 rpg at night. THey will be taking on an inconsistent Kenny Rogers, who has a 4.63 ERA overall, including a 4.75 ERA on the road and a 4.36 ERA at night, with those night games averaging 10.6 rpg. Kenny also has a 5.18 career era vs the O’s, including a 5.23 ERA in his last 5 trips to Baltimore. He will be opposed by a struggling Garrett Olson, who comes in with a 5.65 ERA overall, including a 4.28 ERA at home and a 6.55 ERA at night, plus he has really been bad in his last 6 starts, posting a 1.86 WHIP and an 8.38 ERA. Not very good numbers when facing a Detroit squad that scores 5.1 rpg, hits .284 and has a .355 OBP vs lefty starters on the year. Detroit also hits .286 and puts 5.5 rpg on the board at night. The Tigers do struggle to score on the road, but they are swinging the bat well right now, plus they get Ordonez back for this one, so I look for them to hit Olsen hard and get 5 or 6 runs off of him before he turn the ball over to a struggling pen, while the resurgent Orioles offense should be able to get enough off of Kenny, before they turn the ball over to a bullpen that has a 4.72 ERA on the road. Should be a fun one with alot of runs.
Nick “BookieKiller” Parsons
UNDER Pirates/Rockies
Pat Maholm of the Pirates and Ubaldo Jimenez of the Rockies are both in solid current form and conditions are favorable for them to continue their solid runs on Thursday night. With some rain cooled air in the area, some favorable pitching conditions could be on tap at Coors Field tonight. However, its not as if these two hurlers need much help from the weather tonight. Colorados Jimenez is 3-3 in his last seven starts but note the fantastic 2.28 ERA. Also, the Rockies right-hander has thrived at home this season as hes 3-2 at Coors Field with a 2.67 ERA and an amazing .214 BAA. Those are gaudy numbers for pitching in thin air of Colorado and Jimenez was also rock solid in his only career start against the Pirates as he allowed just one earned run in seven innings against Pittsburgh. The key to this under tonight is that Jimenez is likely to be matched pitch for pitch by Mahlom of Pittsburgh! The Pirates southpaw is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts and he hasnt lost in over two months! Also, the Pirates bullpen struggles are not a big concern here because Maholm is the workhorse of the Pittsburgh rotation and he has gone eight innings in each of his last two starts. The last time Maholm started a game at Coors Field he allowed just one run in seven innings in a solid 5-1 win last August. The Rockies continue to be ravaged by injuries and they have scored a TOTAL of just two runs in their last four games! As for the Pirates, they have scored just one run in two of their last three road games. They are unlikely to enjoy much success against Jimenez at Coors Field, where he thrives, and this one has Pitchers Duel written all over it. Play the UNDER in the Pirates/Rockies match-up on Thursday night at Coors Field.
John Ryan
NY Mets at Cincinnati Reds
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Reds – Beginning of another Mets collapse? Never sure of that, but Santana has pitched consistently well and the only reason he has a mediocre 8-7 record is due to the lack of run support. That lack of offense is expected to continue as the AiS projects that Reds starter Cueto will go 6 or more innings. Should this occur the Reds then have a 90% probability of winning the game. Cueto has gone a minimum of 6.3 IP in each of his last 3 starts and it stand to reason that he will have success against the Mets given the All-Star break rest. Another problem with Santana is that he is just not keeping the ball down in the zone and not getting enough ground ball outs. He has yielded 14 home runs this season, which is far better than the 33 he gave up all of last season. Still, for a lights out ace, this far too many home runs. He ranks 250th all pitchers (starters and relievers) in GB/FB ratio at 1.30. Reds rank 7th in baseball with 108 home runs.
Play on: Cincinnati
Vegas Experts
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
Rockies’ starter Ubaldo Jiminez has been particularly sharp of late (1.86 ERA L3 starts), particularly at home where he’s won his last two by a combined 15-2 margin. He’ll be countered by lefty Paul Maholm and the good news there for Colorado fans is that their team averages a healthy 5.2 runs/game vs. southpaws. Pittsburgh is an atrocious 4-22 on the road after giving up 9+ runs in their last game.
Play on: Colorado
Scott Rickenbach
Cincinnati Reds Run Line +1.5 runs -125 vs New York Mets @ 7:10 ET – Cueto vs Santana – This is a Free Pick opinion play only, not a star rated play. However, that is not to say that there is not value with the Reds on the run line in this situation! To be able to get the Reds at home with Johnny Cueto on the mound and to be able to lay very small juice and yet still cash a ticket with a one-run loss is quite a value! Yes, the Mets have been one of the hottest teams in the league recently but let’s not overlook what the Reds have done recently too. Also, with a 9-game winning streak underway, the last thing the Mets needed was the All Star break. However, for the Reds, after a tight 3-2 loss to the Brewers on Sunday, the All Star festivities provided a welcome break. Keep in mind that, before the loss to Milwaukee, Cincinnati had gone 7-2 in their last 9 games and they had averaged over 6 runs per game in their seven wins! Indeed they’ve been swinging the bats quite well and this is giving them confidence heading into this match-up with Johan Santana.
Even though Santana got the win earlier this season against the Reds he did allow ten hits in his six innings of work. He certainly was not unhittable and, in fact, Cincinnati has hit .339 against him in Santana’s three career appearances against the Reds. Also note that Santana has allowed 33 hits in his last 27 innings on the road and he’s facing the Reds at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark this evening. Note that playing the Reds +1.5 runs in their last 15 games would have netted a cool 12-3 record! In other words, Cincinnati has been avoiding the blowout losses recently and we certainly expect that to continue tonight! Note that, as hot as the Mets have been, playing New York at -1.5 runs in each of their last 17 games would have only netted you a 10-7 record.
With Cueto on the mound, an outright upset for the Reds is certainly possible here and it is also quite unlikely that the Mets, if they do win, will be able to create any kind of separation. Cueto struggled in his only start against the Mets but that was in New York. Note that in Cincinnati, the Reds right-hander is 5-3 and his 4.08 ERA at home is quite deceiving as teams are hitting just .226 against him at Great American Ballpark! Cueto has allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his ten starts at home! Behind another strong start from Cueto, this one turns into a true pitchers duel and that means there is great value with the Reds +1.5 runs here. Play Cincinnati on the run line.
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James Patrick
Pirates vs. Rockies
The Bucs are just 2-8 in Maholm’s road starts while the Rockies have feasted on lefties winning 5 of 6. Colorado also has won 5 of 6 home games and the Colorado Rockies get our Thursday Major League Baseball selection call.