MLB Trends July 5th
top dollar (GOLD MEMBER) 4 months ago
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Hot Pitchers- Bergmann has 1.29 RA in his last four starts. Reds are 3-1 in last four Arroyo home starts (2-1, 2.49). – Sheets is 4-1, 2.70 in his last six starts.- Lowe has 2.60 RA in his last eight starts. Giants won seven of last eight Sanchez starts. – Moehler is 1-0, 1.47 in his last three starts. Hudson is 2-0, 1.19 in his last three home starts.- Looper is 2-0, 2.81 in his last four starts. – Haren is 3-0, 1.54 in his last six starts.
- Beckett is 1-1, 1.64 in his last three starts. – Rogers is 2-1, 2.85 in his last seven starts. Bedard is 1-0, 1.83 in his last four starts.- Guthrie has a 2.22 RA in his last four home starts. Rangers are 9-1 in Padilla road starts, winning his last six on foreign soil. – Buehrle is 4-0, 1.38 in his last five starts.- Minnesota is 8-2 in Hernandez home starts. – Burnett is 2-0, 0.60 in his last two starts.
Cold Pitchers- Gorzelanny has 6.03 RA in his last seven starts. – Mets lost last five Santana starts (0-4, 4.22), scoring 10 runs. Happ allowed five runs in four IP in his only 2007 start. He was 5-6, 3.54 in 17 AAA starts this season.- Reynolds is 1-3, 6.55 in his last four starts. Marlins lost last three Olsen road starts (0-1, 7.05). – Zambrano comes off DL to start; he was 0-2, 6.20 in his last three starts.
—Baek is 0-2, 6.38 in his last three starts.
- Rasner is 1-6, 5.68 in his last seven starts. – Royals lost five of last six Bannister road starts. Jackson is
2-3, 5.75 in his last seven starts.- Blanton is 1-5, 7.75 in his last six starts. – Cleveland lost eight of Byrd’s nine road starts.
—Weaver is 1-2, 6.38 in his last three home starts.
Hot Teams- Brewers won six of last seven home games. – Dodgers won six of their last seven road games.- Phillies won four of their last five games. – Cardinals won four of their last six games.
- Detroit won 19 of its last 25 games. Mariners are 7-3 in their last ten games. – Rays won eight of last nine games. Royals are 7-2 in their last nine road games.- Orioles won eight of their last eleven games. Rangers are 3-1 in their last four games. – White Sox are 23-5 in their last 28 home games.- Twins won 15 of their last 18 games. – Angels won three of their last four games.
Cold Teams- Reds lost seven of last nine home games. Nationals lost six of their last seven road games. – Pirates lost six of their last nine road games.- Giants lost eight of last twelve home games. – Mets are 8-8 since they fired Willie Randolph.- Braves lost nine of last twelve home games. Astros are 6-12 in their last eighteen games. – Colorado lost eight of its last eleven games. Florida is 6-13 in its last thirteen road games.- Cubs lost eight of their last ten road games. – Arizona lost six of its last nine games. San Diego is 1-10 in its last eleven games, scoring one run in last two.
- Bronx lost six of last eight home games. Red Sox are 9-18 in their last 27 road games, lost five of last six games overall. – A’s are 3-5 in second game of road series if they won opener.- Indians lost last five games, allowing 32 runs. – Blue Jays are 3-11 in their last fourteen games.
Totals- Over is 7-3 in Arroyo’s last ten starts. – Over is 7-3 in last ten games at Miller Park.- 10 of last 11 Dodger games stayed under the total. – Four of Mets’ last five road games went over the total.- Under is 6-3 in Atlanta’s last nine games. – Under is 6-2-1 in last nine games at Coors Field.- Four of last five Cardinal games went over the total. – Over is 6-3 in last nine Arizona games.
- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Bronx home games, 8-2-1 in last 11 Boston games. – Three of last four Bedard starts stayed under the total.- Over is 11-4 in Orioles’ last fifteen games. – Four of Royals’ last five games went over the total.- Over is 7-3 in White Sox’ last ten home games. – Under is 7-3 in last ten Cleveland games.
—Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Burnett starts.
Responses
Tips and Trends
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees [FOX | 3:55 PM ET]
Red Sox: Justin Masterson had been cruising along, but he’s hit a wall in his two most recent outings. After allowing a total of 12 runs in his first six starts, Masterson has allowed eight in his last two. Masterson has been much more effective at Fenway Park than he’s been on the road where he’s just 1-2 with a 4.58 ERA on the year.
The OVER is 2-0-1 in Masterson’s last three starts.
Red Sox are 22-7 in their last 29 Saturday games.
Red Sox are 4-10 in their last 14 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries – NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 3 (UNDER – Total Play of the Day)
Yankees (-135, O/U 9.5): After going a month between losses, Mike Mussina has now dropped back-to-back games for only the second time this season. Moose hasn’t pitched terrible in those outings, allowing six runs in 14 innings of work. However, he hasn’t received much run support from the Yankees offense, dropping decisions of 2-1 and 4-2. Mussina has been average in 11 starts at Yankee Stadium, going 5-5 with an ERA of 4.10.
The UNDER is 4-1 the last five times Mussina has taken the mound.
Yankees are 9-4 in Mussina’s last 13 starts.
The UNDER is 9-3 in New York’s last 12 home games.
Key Injuries – OF Johnny Damon (.317; shoulder) is OUT.
OF Hideki Matsui (.323; knee) is on the 15-day DL.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals [FOX | 3:55 PM ET]
Cubs: Ted Lilly has won four of his last five starts and the Cubs have been victorious the last six times Lilly has taken the hill overall. Lilly hasn’t been a dominating pitcher, allowing nine runs over his last 21.2 innings of work. However, he’s benefited from solid run support to build a 9-4 record this season. Lilly is pretty much average in every area, including pitching on the road where he is 4-3 with a 4.19 ERA on the year.
The OVER is 5-2 in Lilly’s last seven starts.
Cubs are 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.
The OVER is 8-3 in Chicago’s last 11 games overall.
Key Injuries – OF Alfonso Soriano (.283; broken hand) is on the 15-day DL.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Cardinals (-115, O/U 8.5): Kyle Lohse has been spectacular this season. Lohse hasn’t recorded a loss in his last 10 starts, going 7-0 with three no-decisions. Overall, the Cardinals have won eight of the last nine games Lohse has pitched. He’s been tough at home, going 5-1 with a strong 2.77 ERA in 10 starts this season. Lohse has allowed two runs or less seven times in his last 10 outings and he’s walked just 26 batters in 105.1 innings of work this season.
Cardinals are 8-1 in Lohse’s last 9 starts.
The OVER is 11-4-1 in St. Louis’ last 15 games as a favorite.
Key Injuries – SS Cesar Izturis (.241; hamstring) is on the 15-day DL.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side Play of the Day)
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels [9:05 PM ET]
Blue Jays: Roy Halladay is back to his old dominating self, losing just once in his last 10 starts. Over that stretch, Halladay has allowed two runs or less a remarkable seven times. Halladay is only 5-4 on the road this season but he does possess a solid 2.43 ERA away from home. He has, however, had problems with the Angels. In 13 career starts against Anaheim, Halladay is just 5-5 with an unimpressive 4.80 ERA.
The UNDER is 3-1 the last four times Halladay has taken the hill.
Blue Jays are 2-10 in their last 12 road games.
The UNDER is 8-1 in Halladay’s last 9 starts on grass.
Key Injuries – OF Shannon Stewart (.240; ankle) is on the 15-day DL.
PROJECTED SCORE: 2
Angels (-130, O/U 7): You won’t find a hotter pitcher in baseball right now than John Lackey. He’s won five straight outings, allowing just six runs over his last 38.1 innings of work. The Angels have won seven of Lackey’s starts this season, as he’s allowed more than two runs just once all year. Teams should consider themselves lucky if they score a run off Lackey at Anaheim Stadium. In 30 innings pitched at home this season, Lackey has only allowed five earned runs.
The UNDER is 8-0-1 in his starts this season.
Angels are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
The UNDER is 13-3-2 in LA’s last 18 Saturday games.
Key Injuries – NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants [9:05 PM ET]
Dodgers (-125, O/U 8.5): Chan Ho Park did a great job filling in for Hiroki Kuroda and now he gets the call with Brady Penny scratched from his scheduled start. That may not be a bad thing because while Penny has struggled this season, Park has been fantastic in spot duty. In his last two starts, Park struck out 16 and allowed just one run over 11 innings of work. Park has an impressive 2.45 ERA in 23 appearances as a starter and relief pitcher this season.
Dodgers are 22-10 in the last 32 meetings.
The UNDER is 10-2 in LA’s last 12 games overall.
Key Injuries – OF Juan Pierre (.277; knee) is on the 15-day DL.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5
Giants: When the Giants signed Barry Zito to a huge contract, they weren’t envisioning him having a record of 3-12 heading into the All-Star break two years later. Zito has lost three of his last four starts, getting lit up pretty good in those outings. In his last 19.1 innings of work, Zito has allowed 15 runs. Being at home certainly won’t help. Zito is 0-8 with a ridiculous 7.33 ERA in nine home starts this season.
Giants are 5-17 in their last 22 home games.
The UNDER is 10-4-1 in San Francisco’s last 15 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries – NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
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Trend Sheet
3:55 PM BOSTON vs. NY YANKEES
Boston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Boston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
NY Yankees are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games
NY Yankees are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games at home
3:55 PM CHI CUBS vs. ST. LOUIS
Chi Cubs are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Chi Cubs are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games
St. Louis is 5-12 SU in their last 17 games when playing Chi Cubs
St. Louis is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
6:10 PM KANSAS CITY vs. TAMPA BAY
Kansas City is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing Tampa Bay
Kansas City is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
7:05 PM NY METS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Mets are 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
NY Mets are 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing NY Mets
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Mets
7:05 PM OAKLAND vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Oakland is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Oakland is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
Chi White Sox are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games at home
7:05 PM PITTSBURGH vs. MILWAUKEE
Pittsburgh is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Milwaukee
Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Milwaukee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
7:05 PM TEXAS vs. BALTIMORE
Texas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Texas
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
7:10 PM CLEVELAND vs. MINNESOTA
Cleveland is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Minnesota
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
Minnesota is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
7:10 PM HOUSTON vs. ATLANTA
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
7:10 PM WASHINGTON vs. CINCINNATI
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Cincinnati is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Washington
Cincinnati is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing Washington
8:05 PM FLORIDA vs. COLORADO
Florida is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
Florida is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
Colorado is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Florida
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
8:10 PM SAN DIEGO vs. ARIZONA
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
San Diego is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
Arizona is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Diego
Arizona is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
9:05 PM LA DODGERS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
LA Dodgers are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games on the road
LA Dodgers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 2-13 SU in their last 15 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
San Francisco is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games at home
9:05 PM TORONTO vs. LA ANGELS
Toronto is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Toronto is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games
LA Angels are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
LA Angels are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
10:10 PM DETROIT vs. SEATTLE
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Detroit is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
Seattle is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Seattle is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games at home