Golf Thoughts – Betting The US Open At Torrey Pines!
Top Sports Bets 5 months ago // 10 responses // TopSportsBets.com Golf talk

Ok guys, this might be a tad long, but i feel worth it. I’ll start with my short list of contenders, and then some solid value bets. I will also post their current odds as of Tuesday morning next to each player. Keep in mind, that after each day the odds for each player to win the tournament change.

Of course, Tiger can and win anywhere, anytime. However, i think at the price he is at currently, there is absolutely no value in betting him prior to the first round. So for now, i am leaving him off this list as i just absolutely no value in him prior to the tournament starting.

FInally, i will do a daily update on the tourney after each day. As the odds change, i will offer what i feel is good value.

Currently you can wager on the following: Overall winner, Top 5 Finish, Player Props, Course Props, Head to Head Matchups, and Daily Three Ball Matchups.

Here comes my thoughts

Phil Mickelson: 7-1…..This is literally a home court advantage for Lefty. He grew up playing this course, has a huge following in San Diego. Torrey was his home course in high school as well. Also of note, no one has been practicing more at Torrey South than Lefty. You can best bet he is trying to avenge the one major that has slipped away from him more than any other. He will be in contention the entire way. Also a bet to consider is 11/8 to finish top 5. This is a bet that should be bet rather large. He will finish top 5.

Stewart Cink: 33/1….This guy doesn’t get enough credit. His game is tailor made for the U.S. Open. He played in the final groups over the weekend at this years Buick Invitational held at this very course. He has tremendous ball striking, and course management. As long as he putts decent, he will contend. At 33-1, he’s worth a hell of a look. To finish Top 5, he is at 11/2. Another solid bet to consider.

Luke Donald: 28/1…..Another guy to look out for. This guy is really flying under the radar right now. He will win a US Open someday. His iron play, distance control, and course management are legendary. He is your modern day grinder. He likes this course, and his odds keep dropping. Lots of money coming in on him lately. He comes in without expectations, and i expect a big week from him. His odds to finish top 5 have dropped dramatically to 9/2.

Trevor Immelman: 33/1…...I actually wish he hadn’t won the Masters, as he’d be closer to 75-1
to win this tourney. His game is actually better suited for the U.S. Open. He’s very similar to Luke Donald in style of play. He’s in solid form as he lost last week in a playoff. He has had success here in the past, competing in the Junior Worlds at Torrey Pines. All the talk about winning 2 majors in a row will get to him, but i still think he finds the leaderboard. His odds to finish Top 5 are 11/2, and i think that is an average play to make.

Ryuji Imada: 66/1…...I love this play. I am all over this one. Imada is one of the Tour’s young guns. THis guy was a former #1 ranked junior golfer. He has a ton of game. He has improved every year on tour, and currently sits in the top 5 in the Fed Ex Cup. He has also won in the past 6 weeks, and continues to contend each week. His game is also suited for the US Open, and he will contend this week. He too dominated this course in the Junior Worlds back in his junior years. He actually finished 2nd to Tiger at this years Buick Invitational, just ahead of Stewart Cink. Imada is currently 11/1 to finish in the Top 5. That play is one of my biggest of the week.

Jeff Quinney: 125/1…..This guy can flat out play. He is so underrated its rediculous. He always plays well on the West Coast, and is oh so close to picking up that first win. The U.S. Open has provided some shockers over the years, and to me, this guy is that shocker this year. He is one of the best putters on tour, and is very comfortable at Torrey Pines. I expect his methodical game to come in handy this week. At 125/1, i think it’s a solid wager. More importantly, i think at 20/1 to finish Top 5 is an even better bet. He will make the cut, and he will hang around all weekend. I think there is great value on Jeff Quinney.

I have three other names that could lurk, and are under my watch. Pat Perez at 66/1, Carl Pettersson at 125/1, and Heath Slocum at 150/1. I will be watching their games closely to see if they warrant a play during the tournament.

I’m waiting for the over/unders on the scores for the players. I think this course plays incredibly difficult, so i will be liking alot of the overs.

Tomorrow i will break down some of the head to head matchups, as well as three ball matchups. Thanks guys, and hope some of you are still awake!

I like some of your plays Mike.

This is what I’m playing so far….

Jeff Quinney on the Each Way Bet

Quinney (Win +11000)
Quinney (Top 4 +2750)

and for my Tournament Matchups…

J. Quinney (-120) over R. Pampling,
R. Imada (+100) over L. Westwood,
J. Leonard (-111) over S. Ames,
S. Garcia (-120) over P. Harrington,
S. Cink (-111) over J. Rose,
A. Kim (+100) over B. Weekly,
S. Appleby (-111) over A. Romero

I will be putting all 7 plays into a 4X Round Robin. If I hit 4 out of 7 I’ll get my money back, and anything more will be a nice payout.

I understand that different Sportsbooks have different matchups. I’m using SportsInteraction for my bets.

Good Luck! There will be more to come.

Ok guys, it’s finally here. US Open Day 1. Here are the following 3 ball matchups for Round 1

PETER TOMASULO 9/4 over Garrigus + Barlow

JEFF WILSON 6/1 over Jacobson + Quigley

RICKIE FOWLER 2/1 over Kirk + Johnson

PHIL MICKELSON 3/2 over Woods + Scott

STEWART CINK 2/1 over Garcia + Singh

JESPER PARNEVIK 5/4 over M. Campbell + Hamilton

Those are my three ball matchups for Day 1. I also have a few other wagers for you.

UNDER 283.5 Final Score…...This is based on the perception of the players in the practice rounds combined with the weather. The weather will be very nice, with little wind throughout. The USGA also has decided not to play the course from the tips. This is HUGE. THis play is my biggest play of the week, and literally a POD of the Year candidate. Hit this hard.

One tournament matchup i like is Jim Furyk -110 over Vijay Singh. Singh is hurt, and will miss the cut. Mark that down!

As i browse Bodog, i see something very interesting that should be noted. Phil Mickelson’s odds have dropped to 5/1. That’s significant for a few reasons. But what hasn’t changed this evening is Mickelson’s odds to finish top 5 at 11/8. That’s another bet that should be hit hard. DO IT!!!! Lastly, you can bet on who wins without Tiger Woods. What’s funny is that you can still get Mickelson at 5-1 without Tiger. The same wager, minus Tiger. Crazy! I think there is solid value in betting Mickelson at 11/8 to finish Top Five, as well as the 5-1 without Tiger in the field.

There are some over/unders out there. Pay close to those lines as well.

Best of luck, and i hope you have fun watching these guys at Torrey Pines South.

Play of the Week!....

Jeff Quinney (Top 10 Finish +1000)

1st Round 3-Ball Matchups….

C. Wittenberg (+130) over Haas and Stanley

Karlsson (+125) over Clark and Parry

S. Appleby (+162) over Westwood and Kelly

P. Mickelson (+162) over Woods and Scott (POD)

MA Jiminez (+180) over Weekly and Katayama

I will also be tailing some of your plays Mike. I seen that O/U @ 283.5 and I was thinking the same thing you are. It’s going to be great weather all weekend with light winds, so the scoring will be low. I’m thinking between -6 and -9 will be the winning score.

Good Luck!

Good Luck!

Afternoon 3-Ball Matchups for Round 1….

B. Bryant (+137) over Trahan and C. Campbell,

P. Casey (+187) over Poulter and Donald,

D. Love (+250) over Cabrera and Harrington,

C. Howell (+175) over Villegas and Kaymer,

B. Snedeker (+140) over Dougherty and Byrd

Very profitable 1st Round, look for it to get even better as the cream rises to the top!

2nd Round Matchups to come, as well as some over/unders for Tiger, Phil, Vijay, and Luke Donald to come later in the morning.

2nd Round Three Ball Matchups:

BEN CRANE 6/5 over Edfors and Axley

CARL PETTERSSON 6/5 over Hansen and Chopra

RICH BEEM 13/8 over Flesch and Janzen

CASEY WITTENBERG 5/4 over Haas and Stanley

D.A. POINTS 7/4 over Sheehan and Hearn

LEE WESTWOOD 11/8 over Appleby and Kelly

RICKIE FOWLER 7/4 over Kirk and Johnson

BRAD BRYANT 11/4 over Mediate and Thompson

Good luck guys and hope you enjoy the research, banter, and plays!

Play of the Day!....

Tiger (+110) over Phil and Scott

Other Matchups for the 2nd Round of the U.S. Open…

Streelman (+110) over Dinwiddie and Murakami

L. Donald (+110) over Casey and Poutler

D. Love (+175) over Harrington and Cabrera

Sheehan (+125) over Points and Hearn

Good Luck!

Round 3, 2-Ball Matchups….

Quinney (+110) over Snedeker

Singh (-125) over Casey

Leggat (+120) over McGowan

Immelman (+100) over Ames

Mickelson (-125) over Scott (POD)

Woods (-227) over Karlsson

Appleby (-152) over Mediate

Love vs Trahan (Draw +750)

Jobe vs Mallinger (Draw +750)

Won’t be around today to talk Golf. But Phil is my POD and I believe he will come out strong today after his slow start. Today is moving day and Phil will want to make up some ground on the leaders before Sunday.

Good Luck!

Another winning day on Friday for Three Ball Matchups. It’s very important to hit those underdogs!!!! Here are some more freebies for you.

NICK WATNEY 10/11 Rich Beem

SOREN HANSEN 10/11 Todd Hamilton

MATT KUCHAR 5/7 Jon Mills

CARL PETTERRSON 10/11 John Rollins

LEE WESTWOOD 5/6 Miguel Angel Jiminez

IAN LEGGATT 6/5 Ross McGowan

Good luck guys. As Danny Boy said, Saturday is moving day. The pretenders fall to the bottom today.