Wednesday 5/14 Service Plays
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SPORTS ADVISORS
Atlanta (19-19) at Philadelphia (22-18)
Tom Glavine (0-1, 4.03 ERA) tries once again for his first victory of 2008 – and the 304th of his career – when he leads the Braves against the Phillies and Brett Myers (2-3, 5.33) in the middle game of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies snapped a modest two-game slide with Tuesday’s 5-4 victory, overcoming a 3-0 first-inning deficit. Charlie Manuel’s club has still been lacking consistency the last few weeks, going 8-7 in its last 15 games, but it is 6-2 in its last eight home contests and 6-1 in its last seven as a favorite. On the downside, Philadelphia is 2-4 in its last six divisional games and 1-6 in its last seven on Wednesdays.
Atlanta has followed up a season-best six-game winning streak by losing four of its last five. Bobby Cox’s club has one of the biggest home-road splits in the majors, going 14-4 at home, but 5-15 on the road. Also, the Braves are on further negative runs of 0-6 as a road underdog, 0-5 against the N.L. East and 1-4 on Wednesdays.
This is the first meeting of the season between these rivals, who split their 18-game season series last year. However, the Phillies are now 10-5 in the last 15 battles.
With Myers on the hill, the Phillies are 30-12 when he pitches on five days’ rest, but they’re 3-10 in his last 13 starts overall, 3-9 in his last 12 at home, 1-7 in his last eight as a favorite and 2-12 in his last 14 against the N.L. East. Meanwhile, going all the way back to Glavine’s first stint in Atlanta, the Braves are 8-1 when he pitches on Wednesdays, but 1-7 in his last eight starts overall (1-5 this season) and 0-5 in his last five on the highway (0-4 this season).
Glavine is coming off his longest outing of the season, as he went seven innings at Pittsburgh on Friday, giving up two runs on five hits and four walks. But it wasn’t enough, as the veteran southpaw got a no-decision in a 3-2 Braves loss. Glavine has a 2.79 ERA in four road starts, but his team has lost all four.
Glavine is 28-17 with a 3.68 ERA in 64 lifetime starts against Philadelphia, including 2-2 with a 4.06 ERA in seven games at Citizens Bank Park. Going back to the 2006 season, Glavine has tossed seven consecutive quality starts against the Phillies (at least six innings pitched and three or fewer earned runs allowed), and his ERA during this seven-game stretch is 2.64.
Myers got rocked in Arizona on Thursday, yielding seven runs (six earned) on nine hits and three walks in five innings of an 8-3 defeat. The Phillies are 0-3 in his last three efforts, and the righthander has registered a 6.75 ERA in his last four starts. Myers has also given up 12 home runs in 49 innings, allowing at least one big fly in each of his last seven trips to the bump.
Myers is 4-6 with a 4.16 ERA and four saves in 24 career appearances (17 starts) against the Braves. On the bright side, he’s 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four home starts in 2008.
The under is 5-1 in Glavine’s last six starts overall, 4-0 in his four road starts this season and 6-0-1 in his last seven against the Phillies. The under is also 4-2 in Myers’ last six outings against Atlanta, but 7-3 in his last 10 overall and 14-6 in his last 20 efforts on Wednesday.
For Atlanta, the under is on streaks of 37-16-2 overall, 19-5-1 on the road, 17-5 as an underdog and 18-4-1 on the road against right-handed starters. Conversely, the over is 5-3-1 in Philly’s last nine overall and 7-4 in its last 11 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
N.Y. Yankees (19-21) at Tampa Bay (23-16)
The red-hot and record-setting Rays go for their seventh consecutive win overall and their 12th straight win at home when they send ace James Shields (4-2, 3.14) to the mound opposite New York’s Mike Mussina (5-3, 4.36) at Tropicana Field
After pounding out a 7-1 victory in Monday’s series opener, Tampa Bay needed 11 innings to pull out a 2-1 win Tuesday. Not only have the Rays won six in a row overall and 11 straight at home, but they’re 15-5 in their last 20 and have climbed seven games over .500 for the first time in team history. The Rays have outscored their opponents 29-9 during their six-game winning streak, and they’re now 15-7 at home.
The Yanks have followed a three-game winning steak by going 2-5 in their last seven to fall back below .500. New York entered this series having won four straight against the Rays – all in Tampa – before losing the last two, so the season series is now tied 4-4.
Shields is coming off the best start of his career, as he pitched a complete-game, one-hitter against the Angels on Friday night, getting the 2-0 when rookie Evan Longoria hit a one-out, two-run walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth. Tampa Bay is 3-1 in Shields’ last four outings, with the righthander giving up two earned runs or fewer in all three victories. In fact, Shields has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 13 of his last 16 outings.
Shields has thrived at Tropicana Field this season, going 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA in four starts, with the Rays also prevailing in his one no-decision at home. The one negative for Shields: He’s been horrific against the Yankees in his career, going 0-5 with a 7.83 ERA in six starts, including a 2-0 road loss on April 6, when he gave up two runs on eight hits in five innings. That was easily Shields’ best outing against the Yankees in his career.
Mussina has seemingly turned back the clock over the last three weeks, going 4-0 with a 3.13 ERA in his last four starts, including a pair of road wins over the Indians (5-2) and White Sox (6-4). He’s 2-1 with a 4.08 ERA in three starts on foreign turf this season.
Mussina dominated the Rays in a 6-1 home win on April 7, giving up just the one run on two hits and one walk in six innings. He’s now 17-7 with a 3.44 ERA in 30 starts versus Tampa Bay, but only 7-5 with a 4.29 ERA at Tropicana Field. The Yanks have won seven of his last nine starts against the Rays.
The under is 6-2 in Mussina’s eight start this season, including 3-0 in the last three, but the over is 4-1 in his last five starts against the Rays (2-0 in Tampa Bay). Also, the over is 4-2 in Tampa’s last six overall.
The under is 6-1 in the last six meetings between these rivals overall (2-0 in this series), but the over remains 9-4-2 in the past 15 clashes at Tampa Bay. Other than that, the under is on runs of 10-1 for the Rays at home, 28-10-1 for the Yankees overall, 8-0 for the Yankees against right-handed starters, 7-1 for the Yankees on the road, 14-5 for the Yankees against A.L. East rivals and 42-18 for the Yankees on Wednesdays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(4) Cleveland (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS) at (1) Boston (6-5, 5-6 ATS)
The Celtics, who dropped Games 3 and 4 in Cleveland and still haven’t won a road game in the playoffs, hope the friendlier confines of the TD Banknorth Garden are enough to help them regain control of this best-of-7 series against the defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers.
Cleveland tied the series with Monday’s 88-77 victory in Game 4, easily cashing as a two-point chalk. The Cavs kept Boston at bay in a tight game for three quarters, then allowed just 12 fourth-quarter points to pull away for the win. LeBron James’ double-double of 21 points and 13 assists paced the Cavs, who held the Celtics’ Big Three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen to a total of 43 points on 16-for-40 shootings.
Cleveland, which pounded Boston 108-84 laying two points in Game 3, is 3-1 ATS in this playoff series and 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. Boston, meanwhile, is on a 4-6 ATS slide (all in the playoffs), after winning and cashing in six straight between the end of the regular season and its first two playoff games against Atlanta.
The season series between these two teams is tied at 4, but the Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS. The home team is on a 9-0 SU run (8-0 this season) but is just 5-4 ATS in that span. Also, despite the fact the favorite has won and cashed in the last three meetings, the underdog is still on a 7-3-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
In the second round of this year’s playoffs, the home team is an eye-popping 17-1 SU and 14-3-1 ATS.
The Cavaliers are a lengthy 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 road games against teams with a winning home record and have additional positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 against the Atlantic Division, 4-1 in conference semifinal games and 4-1 on one day of rest. But Cleveland is just 6-17 ATS in its last 23 following a spread-cover and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 after a double-digit SU win.
Doc Rivers’ Celtics are 1-4 ATS against winning teams and 1-6 ATS in conference semifinal contests, but despite struggling in Cleveland, Boston still owns positive ATS trends of 24-11 overall, 14-3 at home, 9-1 at home versus teams with a losing road mark, 7-1 on Wednesday, 11-5 against the Central Division and 15-7 after a SU loss. Finally, the Celtics are 6-0 at home in this postseason (5-1 ATS), winning by an average of 20.2 points per game.
Three of the four games in this playoff series have stayed low, and the under has cashed in four of the last five meetings going back to the regular season, with Monday’s clash falling far short of the 181-point posted price. For Cleveland, the under is on streaks of 12-4 overall, 7-1 against the Atlantic Division, 12-4 on one day of rest and 13-2 in conference semifinal games. The under for Boston is on runs of 16-8 against the East, 8-4 in conference semis, 17-6 against the Central Division, 5-1 at home (all in the playoffs) and 4-1 on one day of rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(4) Utah (6-4, 4-5 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (6-2, 6-1-1 ATS)
The Jazz dealt the Lakers their first two losses of the 2008 playoffs in Games 3 and 4, sending this best-of-7 series back to Staples Center tied up at two apiece heading into tonight’s Game 5.
Utah blew a 12-point lead in the final four minutes of the fourth quarter Sunday, allowing L.A. to force overtime, but the Jazz bounced back to take a 123-115 win and cash as a one-point pup. Point guard Deron Williams (29 points, 14 assists) paced Utah, which is still just 2-5-1 ATS (4-4 SU) in its last eight games. Meanwhile, the Lakers, who got 33 points from Kobe Bryant despite him playing with a clearly ailing back, have followed up a 10-game SU winning streak (9-0-1 ATS) with the back-to-back defeats in Salt Lake City.
Los Angeles is 5-3 SU (5-2-1 ATS) against Utah this season, including 4-2 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in the last six contests. The home team is on a 6-1-1 ATS spree in this rivalry and is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 battles overall, with the winning team cashing all but one of those 14 games, the exception being in Game 3, which landed right on the number.
The Jazz are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 starts against winning teams and 7-3 ATS in their alst 10 after a spread-cover, but they are in pointspread funks of 0-5 as a playoff ‘dog of five to 10½ points, 3-7 as a playoff pup of any price and 8-18 on two days’ rest.
Despite dropping both games in Salt Lake City, the Lakers still carry nothing but positive pointspread streaks, including 6-0 at home, 5-0 as a chalk of five to 10½ points, 7-1 as a favorite of any price, 8-1-1 against the West, 6-1-1 in conference semifinal games, 6-1-1 against the Northwest Division (all in the playoffs), 8-1-1 against the Western Conference and 9-3 on two days’ rest.
Sunday’s game cleared the 210½-point posted total even before overtime hit, making the over 12-6 in the last 18 meetings in this rivalry. For Los Angeles, the over is on tears of 10-2 after a SU loss, 21-7 giving five to 10½ points at home and 37-16 with the Lakers as a chalk of five to 10½ points. However, the under is 5-2 in L.A.’s last seven overall, 7-3 in its last 10 on Wednesdays and 7-1 in its last eight on two days’ rest.
For Utah, the over is on runs of 22-8 against the Pacific Division, 8-2 as a playoff pup of five to 10½ points, 9-4 against winning teams and 5-2 on two days’ rest, but the under is 7-3 in the Jazz’s last 10 overall and 4-1 in their last five as a road ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
Responses
John Ryan
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 63-39 and has made 37 units since 2002. Play against any NL team with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season. Atlanta is 4-11 (-8.5 Units) against the money line in road games versus an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season; 3-10 (-8.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. Brett Myers is 37-16 (+18.7 Units) against the money line versus NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Jimmy Rollins is batting 373 and will lead the Phils in an offensive attack. Take Philadelphia
Dave Cokin
Nationals @ Mets Play: Mets
Claudio Vargas is back in the bigs after toiling in New Orleans to start the season. The veteran righthander makes his debut for the Mets after a bit of a roster shakeup that took place Tuesday. Vargas is extremely erratic, has lousy control and goves up loads of hits. But he also manages to win more games than he loses. It’s rare that a pitcher who’s 23-16 over the last two seasons gets sent to the minors, and I have to think Vargas will be highly charged for his return to the show. The Nationals have gotten some good mileage out of Tim Redding this year, but I like the home team’s chances here. The Mets are the choice.
Nelly
Minnesota (Bonser) + over Toronto (Halladay)
Roy Halladay is considered to be one of the top pitchers in baseball but the Blue Jays have lost four of his last five starts. Halladay has good overall numbers but he has not been delivering wins for the Jays and he is yet to have a truly dominant performance this season. Toronto is just 3-10 in the last 13 road games and the Jays are just 8-13 away from home on the season. Scoring runs has been the biggest problem for the Blue Jays, averaging less than 2.7 runs per game in the last 25 contests. Toronto is actually averaging just 2.1 runs per game in the last 13 road games. Minnesota has won ten of the past eleven home games and Boof Bonser has been a consistent starter for the Twins. Minnesota has won his last three starts and he allows very few walks or home runs with solid strikeout numbers. Minnesota is hitting .287 in the last ten games and despite weak power numbers the Twins are posting 6.3 runs per game in the last ten outings. Look for Minnesota to deliver another win at home, catching solid value against Halladay and the struggling Blue Jays.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Toronto Blue Jays w/Halladay
Note: The Blue Jays send the horse, Roy Halladay, to the hill in Minnesota in the 2nd of this 3-games series knowing he is 7-1 with a 2.41 ERA in his eight career team starts against the Twins. He’s also cashed in 13 of his last 17 team starts in the month of May. With Halladay off a loss and in great KW form with 19 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last three starts, we’ll ride the horse here tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Reason: Braves struggling on the road this season where they are 5-15. Atlanta is 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record. Glavine’s on the mound tonight and Atlanta has lost 5 of his 6 starts this season. Philadelphia has won 6 of their last 8 home games. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite. Philadelphia’s 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Play on the Phillies
Las Vegas Sports Pics
Philadelphia – 125* over Atlanta (action) Atlanta is an MLB worst 5-14 on the road. Philadelphia is 10-3 in 13 Kendrick career home starts including 1-0 versus Atlanta. Phillies are 8-4 last 12 meetings.
Houston (Backe) + 110* over (at) San Francisco (Cain) San Francisco is 2-6 last eight games and 7-14 last 21 Cain home starts. Houston is 9-1 last ten games including 4-0 on the current West coast road trip.
Big Al McMordie
Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants Play:Houston Astros
At 10:15pm ET our complimentary selection is on the Houston Astros over the San Francisco Giants. You may be surprised to find out that Brian Moehler is alive and well and still has a spot on a Major League roster. You will probably be even more surprised to know that the 36 year old journeyman righthander is not just on the Houston roster, but now has a spot in their rotation. After 42 relief appearances for this team in 2007, which saw Moehler win only one game, but log a very respectable ERA of 4.07, Moehler is back where he has spent most of his professional baseball career – as a starter. And he has earned the right – at least for now – to stay there. It doesn’t hurt his cause that Wandy Rodgriguez still has a troublesome groin and continues to spend time on the DL. Nor does it hurt Moehler’s cause that the other options for the back end of the Astros rotation right now are Chris Sampson and Brandon Backe, the better of whom has two wins and a 4.64 ERA. Moehler’s only start this season was a good one – a five inning shutout against the Dodgers – and it was his first start since September 2006 when he was a member of the Marlins. Tonight looks like another great opportunity for Moehler as he goes against one of the worst teams in the league and a young lefthander in Patrick Misch who has never won a Major League game in his career which spans six starts going back to last August and with his team batting almost .300 against lefties. Take the Astros.
Ross Benjamin
Game:Boston (Lester) @ Baltimore (Cabrera) Pick:Boston -120
In 2 starts versus the Orioles in 2007 Lester posted a very good 1.38 ERA with both resulting in Red Sox victories. Lester is 2-0 in his team, starts during the day this season with a microscopic 0.71 ERA. The southpaw enters the game in good form off of his last 3 starts posting an excellent 1.86 ERA. He also enters the game with team start streaks of 9-2 in the last 11 as a favorite, 17-4 in the last 21 versus a team with a win percentage of less than .500, and 8-1 in the last 9 on 4 days of rest. That is not good news for the Orioles who are 1-10 in the last 11 at home versus a left-handed starting pitcher. The Orioles starter Daniel Cabrera is 1-8 since 2005 in his team starts versus the Red Sox while posting a lofty 6.65 ERA in the process. Play on the Boston Red Sox as my free selection of the day.
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASES FOR WED
TORONTO-127 DETROIT-130 ARIZONA-149 HOUSTON-112 CUBS/PADRES UNDER 7.5 or higher. If 7 then no play
Jim Feist
UTH Jazz and LA Lakers Take Under
The Lakers are one of the Top 6 teams in the NBA defensively, allowing 46% shooting by opponents. The under went 2-1 the first three games, while Game 4 went OT. The Lakers should bring their ‘A’ game defensively with so much at stake in a Game 5. Also, Kobe Bryant has back trouble and is probable to play, but might be limited, their best offensive player. Utah average 102 ppg on the road, 6 fewer points than at home. Play the Jazz/Lakers under the total!
BETTORSWORLD
MARLINS +130
A’S +145
ROYALS +120
EZWINNERS DAY MLB
2 STAR: (917) SEATTLE (+$110) over Texas (Action) (Risking $200 to win $220)
2 STAR: (919) BOSTON (-$115) over Baltimore (Listing Lester only) (Risking $230 to win $200)
Vegas Experts
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) at home, but 0-5 SU/ATS on the road, return home for a critical Game 5 in their series with King James and the Cavs. The Celtics have covered just one game thus far in the series and quite frankly are lucky to be not facing elimination here. However, Cavs are just 2-12 vs. the spead if coming off BB ATS wins while Boston is 15-5 ATS playing with double revenge. Another win for the home side.
Play on: Boston
Matt Fargo
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs Play: San Diego Padres
San Diego is off to a tremendously disappointing start to the year as it is in last place in the National League West and just a half-game ahead of the Mariners for the worst record in all of baseball. If there is any good coming out of this, it is that the Padres are playing better, having won three of their last four games after a victory last night. That win also snapped the Cubs four-game winning streak and can provide some good momentum heading into tonight.
Chicago has been playing well of late but this could be the start of downward run as it has been a very streaky season. Prior to that four-game winning streak, the Cubs had dropped nine of its previous 13 games which happened to follow a 9-1 stretch in mid-April. As streaky as the wins and losses have been, the offense has been just as streaky. The Cubs have scored three runs or fewer in 11 of their last 18 games which is a bad ratio and coming off a three-run performance last night could lead to another one.
Last night’s victory was good for the Padres but the big reason for this take is the price of Jake Peavy. Getting him in the role of an underdog in most places is quite rare. Six of his eight starts this season have been quality outings and I am not going to shy away because of his 4.58 road ERA. Making up for that is the fact that the offense has scored seven runs in each of his three road starts. Despite Peavy’s less than perfect road performance, the Padres are 10-3 in his last 13 road starts.
The Cubs counter with Ted Lilly who is quietly having an outstanding comeback following a poor start to the season. It is quiet because it is not expected as he is one of those middle-tiered pitchers that are in a great go against spot. He has tossed four straight quality outings and now is the time to jump off as opposed to riding him out. He has a 4.18 ERA at home and the offense has scored three runs or fewer in three of his four starts at Wrigley. Reality sets back in on Wednesday. Play San Diego Padres 1.5 Units
Jack Clayton
Braves
HotLocksports
Detroit/Kansas City Under 9
RedZone Sports
Jazz/Lakers Over
Brian Marshall
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
Plays On: Toronto Blue Jays -135
Game Analyses: The Toronto Blue Jays should be able to beat the Minnesota Twins in Wednesday’s MLB game.
The Toronto Blue Jays will be lead by starting pitcher Roy Halladay. Roy Halladay has pitched well this season. In fact, Roy Halladay has a 3.29 ERA on the season. In addition, Roy Halladay has a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. To say the least, the Minnesota Twins will struggle to score runs today.
The Minnesota Twins will be lead by starting pitcher Boof Bonser. Boof Bonser has struggled this season. In fact, Boof Bonser has a 5.09 ERA on the season. In addition, Boof Bonser has a 6.35 ERA in his last 3 starts. It’s clear that Boof Bonser will give up many runs today.
The Toronto Blue Jays are a Perfect 4-0 in their last 4 meetings against the Minnesota Twins, and should be able to get another win tonight.
Take the Toronto Blue Jays
Tony Weston
These teams have played seven times so far this season with the A’s holding a 4-3 advantage over the Tribe. These teams last played a full set April 11-13 when Oakland took two of three games, including the first game of that series that saw the same pitching matchup as today with the Indians trotting out C.C. Sabathia and the A’s playing behind Joe Blanton. The A’s ended up winning that game 9-7 as Oakland beat up Sabathia, scoring nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings off the defending Cy Young award winner. Blanton went 7 2/3, giving up five earned runs, but still picked up the win. Cleveland took Game 1 of their series last night, but Oakland is still 11-7 on the road, while the Indians are only 11-12 at home this season. Sabathia has struggled this year with a 2-5 record and a 6.55 ERA. He’ll struggle again as the A’s beat him up once again.
Take Oakland on the road.
2* OAKLAND ATHLETICS
James Patrick Sports
Yankees vs. Rays
Joe Girardi gives the ball to veteran right handed pitcher Mike Mussina to try to stop the bleeding in New York as the Bronx Bombers have been anything but that of late. Good news for the Yankees is their opponent in this game is Shields for Tampa Bay and he has never beaten the pinstripes with a career record of 0-5. Moose on the other hand is a career 17-7 against these Rays. Our Wednesday selection is New York Yankees.
Karl Garrett
Los Angeles at MILWAUKEE -110
Tonight I will gladly take the Brewers over the Dodgers at Miller Park.
Los Angeles blew a 3-1 lead last night, as the Dodgers took it on the chin for the 5th straight time, while the Brewers ran their winning streak to 3 straight, and 4 of 5 overall.
It will be Lowe against Parra, and while Parra is just 1-2 for the season, he is 1-0 in his 4 starts at home. Milwaukee has gone 5-2 at home since 2006, and they catch Derek Lowe in a bit of a funk, as Lowe has been rocked over his last pair of starts, lasting just 10 innings, while allowing 11 runs to score in a pair of losses.
Lowe is 0-2 over his 4 road starts this year with an ERA over 5. This is not the guy you want on the mound when you are trying to end a 5-game slide!
Take the Brew Crew.
2* MILWAUKEE
Bobby Maxwell
Today we’re on the playoff hardwood with a complimentary play on the Celtics as the take on the Cavs in Game 5 of their Eastern Conference semifinal.
Home team. It’s all about the home court apparently in this series and we know the Celtics have been Jeckyll and Hyde this posteason, being unstoppable at home and lousy on the highway.
So expect that trend to continue in this one as the Celtics are back in Boston where they’ve beaten the Cavs five straight times, including an easy win in Game 2 of this series after squeaking out a win in Game 1.
Boston is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home this postseason while the Wizards are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS on the highway in the playoffs.
We’re playing Boston tonight because this team has done a hell of a job in shutting down LeBron James. If I told you he was going to be 20-of-78 from the field through four games against the Celtics, you’d have said the series is over and Boston won 4-0. But no, in all honesty, the Celtics are lucky to be tied after the Game 1 win.
Now for some reason, LeBron just can’t get going in this series and the supporting cast was OK at home and OK in Game 1 but lousy in Game 2. Expect more of what we saw in Game 2 tonight. Boston has had the best defense in the league all season and what they are doing to LeBron is no surprise. Now they will tweak a little on how to stop some of the supporters and blow the Cavs out tonight.
Boston is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games, 11-5 ATS in their last 16 against the Central Division and 7-1 on Wednesdays. We like the defense of Boston, and tonight you’ll see the Big 3 of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen all have good games and deliver a nice and easy 20-point blowout.
4* CELTICS
Sports Gambling Hotline
Tonight, another UNDER in the NBA, as we see Cleveland-Boston staying at a snail’s pace, and the points hard to come by.
These teams have played 4 games in this best-of-seven set, and 3 of the 4 have stayed UNDER the posted price, including both games contested on the parquet floor.
Overall, 5 of the last 7 meetings between the teams have held LOW, and we like this one to as well.
The Cavaliers have played 12 of their last 16 games dating back to the regular season UNDER the posted price.
You can assume their won’t be too many fastbreak points in this one, nor many three-pointers that aren’t heavily contested. Swing game in the series tonight, and tonight the defense is the winner.
Play the UNDER.
3* UNDER
Chris Jordan
Cleveland is in a must-win situation, I believe, since they’d love nothing more than to go back home with a 3-2 lead in the series and a chance to wrap things up on its own court.
I don’t know whether or not this team can actually pull off the outright win, but I like the points since the Cavs will certainly be gunning for the upset win. Cleveland found the offensive rhythm in Game 4, and let’s be real, it still hasn’t played its best basketball yet.
If there were ever a game in this series we are going to see Cleveland’s most balanced effort and best production, this is the one. Grab the points here, as the Cavs keep it close in challenging for the outright win.
2* CAVALIERS
Matt Rivers
Whether Kobe is truly injured is not even the question here for me as I think he is not that bad or else the number to this game would not have been released so early or at such a high price. The guy is obviously not 100% and whether that means 90% or 75% is enough for me to go against him. It’s not like his injury has lowered this line at all as it is still extremely high as the oddsmakers still expect a burial for the home Lakers. Phil Jackson’s squad could definitely win this thing going away because they are stout with Bryant, Gasol, Fisher and others but they did just lose the last two games and let’s not belittle the talent the Jazz display. Boozer and Williams are stars and Jerry Sloan’s squad overall is no-joke when you throw in Harpring, Okur, Kirilenko, Millsap and others. Sure they have not been nearly the same team away from Salt Lake City but all teams have shown a little bit of an inability on the highway vs. at home. I would be a little surprised if the Jazz were to shock the world and take the very stunning 3-2 series lead but to get this number back with a Utah team that has a great upside against a bit of a banged up Laker squad seems to be the right side to me.
UTAH JAZZ
LT Profits
Florida Marlins +125
The Florida Marlins have been cooled off by the Cincinnati Reds so far, losing the first two games of this four-game series, but we look for Florida to get back in the win column tonight.
Ricky Nolasco is generally regarded as a weak link in the Florida rotation, but he has allowed three runs or less in three of his last four starts. Granted, he went six innings in two of those outings and just five innings in the other, but we would actually take a repeat of those efforts here, as we have great confidence in a Marlins bullpen that ranks fourth in the Major League with a collective 3.17 ERA. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati pen ranks 25th at 4.34, making the Fish a Bullpen System play here.
Bronson Arroyo has been a real mystery for the Reds, as he is simply too talented to have a 7.14 ERA and a horrendous 1.71 WHIP after eight starts. Still, whatever the reason, Arroyo just can’t get going and he was not sharp the last time he faced the Marlins, allowing four earned runs and 12 baserunners in six innings. Furthermore, the bullpen cannot be counted on for relief at this point either.
Florida had won seven straight games entering this series, and we look for them to start a new streak tonight.
Pick: Marlins +125
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Under 176.5
The first two games between the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers in this building produced just 148 and 162 points respectively, and we look for another snooze-fest as this series once again returns to Boston.
It is no secret that the Celtics have been like night and day home and away in the playoffs, and it all begin with their defense. Boston is allowing just 75.5 points per game in six home playoffs games, as opposed to a whopping 99.6 points per game in five road games! As a result, their home playoff contests are averaging a combined 171.2 points, and you could probably shave a few points off of that already low total here given Cleveland methodical style.
The Cavaliers are on a 12-4 Under run of their own stretching back to the regular season. LeBron James did actually get some support from Cleveland’s role players in Game 4 Monday, but even with that, the Cavs managed just 88 points at home vs. a determined Boston defense. We now all know that the Celtics are more intense defensively at home, and after watching the Cavaliers score 72 and 73 points in the first two games here, we have no reason to believe that they could top 75 here.
Thus, look for an identical pace as the first two games of this series.
Pick: Cavaliers, Celtics Under 176.5
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Houston Astros -119
With as confident as the Astros have been playing, I can’t see them going down to the Giants again tonight. The Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite and 9-2 in their last 11 overall. The Astros are 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 4-0 in Moehler’s last 4 starts. The Giants are 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog, 0-6 in Misch’s last 6 starts, and 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win. We’ll bet the Astros on the road tonight.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Phillies -139
The Phillies have dominated the Braves recently, winning 9 of the last 13 matchups and I like the Phillies again tonight against a Braves team which is yet to get things figured out on the road. The Braves are 7-19 in their last 26 road games, 0-6 in their last 6 games as a road underdog, and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. National League East. The Braves are also 0-5 in Glavine’s last 5 road starts. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite and 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Phillies are also 30-12 in Myers’ last 42 starts with 5 days of rest. A well rested Myers means trouble for the Braves tonight. Take the Phillies.
Dave Malinsky
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs PICK: Under
Last night we saw some average pitchers making good pitches at Wrigley Field, with a heavy wind out to left not becoming a major factor in the game at all. Tonight we will see very good pitchers making even better pitches, and with the temperature down and the wind direction changing (blowing in), we have excellent value here in a game in which each team is hard-pressed to score.
There are few challenges more daunting than facing Jake Peavy under tonight’s conditions – he can throw the ball right through bats (52 strikeouts vs. only 41 hits allowed so far this season). But while he is a prominent part of this equation in the eyes of the betting markets, it is Ted Lilly’s misleading 3-4/5.24 that leaves those 8’s out there. Lilly got off to a bad start this season, the kind that can weigh heavily on overall statistics until the middle of the summer. But take a look at the last four starts – a 3-1/2.08 in which he struck out 25 batters, while allowing only 17 hits. That stretch included solid wins form this mound in which he held the Mets and Diamondbacks to just two runs on seven hits over 13 innings, while striking out 14, and now he is stepping way down in class against a feeble San Diego offense that rates last in the N.L. in runs scored, batting average and doubles; is tied for 12th in home runs; and is 14th in stolen bases. And the Padres are particularly anemic against left-handers, hitting just .209 so far.
Peavy and Lilly are not the whole story – both bullpens bring their key arms without any trace of fatigue ratings. That makes the runs hard to come by the entire evening in this one.
Tony Karpinski
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers Play: Los Angeles Lakers
Utah at LA Lakers (NBA Playoff Action) 10:35pm ET UTAH is 2-15 ATS in road games after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. LA LAKERS are 24-13 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. LA LAKERS are also 13-3 ATS versus good foul drawing teams – attempting less than 27 free throws/game -during the 2nd half of the season and later. Look for Kobe to be well rested and the home team to dominate in this battle. Pick on the LA LAKERS
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Alex Smart
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays Under 8.5
James Shields the Tampa Bay Devils Rays , starting hurler against the Yankees tonight is in great current form, and off a one hit shut out against the Angels in his last start . The Rays right hander has been particularly strong at home this season, allowing no runs in his last 18 innings of work here in Tropicana Field , giving up just 3 hits in the process. Red hot veteran thrower Mike Mussina returns fire for the NY Yankees. The zoo crew pitcher is in great form , winning 4 straight starts, while allowing just 8 earned runs during that span. Considering how well these guys are throwing the ball , it will be an easy decision to back this contest to stay under the total. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 8-0 in Yankees last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or more. Under is 8-1 in Rays last 9 home games. Yankees have gone under in 20 of 29 against right-handed starters like Shields this season Play under