TopSportsBets.com Other Service Plays community blog topic
Friday 5/9 Service Plays

James Patrick Sports

Flyers vs. Penguins The Keystone State representative in this year’s Stanley Cup Finals will be decided in this series that begins tonight in the Steel City’s Igloo. These rivals don’t like each other and with so much at stake we’ll take Game One of this Eastern Conference Final between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia to go Under the Total as our Friday NHL selection.

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Philadelphia w/Hamels

Note: Phillies wrap up the final leg in their West Coast swing with a three game visit to San Francisco behind staff ace Cole Hamels tonight. The Giants, on the other hand, return home off a week long East Coast road trip knowing they’ve drop 13 of the last 19 games in this series. With Hamels in solid current for and 3-0 with a 3.69 ERA in his career team starts against the Giants, we’ll back the Phillies behind the ace here tonight.

Dave Cokin

Red Sox @ Twins Play: Red Sox -120

The Red Sox continue their road trip Friday as they head to Minnesota to face the Twins. Jon Lester gets the call for Boston, and he’s on a roll. Lester still walks a few too many, but off back to back stellar outings and with the team off a terrific set at Detroit, the Red Sox are go with material here. Boof Bonser has been adequate for the Twins, but he’s struggled against the better lineups he’s seen this season, and I expect him to get knocked around some tonight. I’ll side with the Red Sox as small road chalk.

BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS

Play on: Arizona (Haren) over Chicago Cubs (Lilly)

By the way, since my notes of last week talking about retread Sidney Ponson of Texas, a few other hurlers have taken up the cause of restructuring their pitching careers. They include Livan Hernandez (5-1) of Minnesota, Vicente Padilla (5-2) of Texas and Scott Olsen (4-1) of Florida who retooled their makeup to secure a nice start for their brethren. However, former A’s ace Danny Haren (4.91) who has lost velocity and location still is not up to his prior self. The right hander gets the call Friday afternoon against tough competition (Cubs) on the road. As a chalk with Haren, the Snakes have won 4 straight. Overall, the series has been controlled by Arizona who sets up with a 44-21 mark L63 times in battle. At Chicago, the Snakes have won 7 of the last 10, while Chicago is 0-6 with lefty Lilly as a chalk. A small play on the traveling Snakes.

Nelly

LA Angels (Garland) + over Tampa Bay (Shields)

This is a great price on the Angels as a substantial underdog against a young Rays squad that has proven little. The Angels are 9-3 in the last 12 road games and 12-6 away from home on the season and while Tampa is improved they are still just two games above .500 and have never held a significant home field edge. Jon Garland has had two bad starts this season at home that have hurt his numbers but he has had decent results on the road and his last start was his best of the season. James Shields is coming off his worst start of the season he has not been consistent enough to take the next step. The Angels continue as one of the top hitting teams in baseball and Tampa Bay appears to be fading with losses in four of the last six games. In a fairly even pitching match-up the Angels will deliver with rare underdog value as the Los Angeles offense has big advantages.

Jimmy The Moose

Game: Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres Prediction: Colorado Rockies

Reason: The Rockies are off to a slow start and it seems the only time they are in a game is when Cook’s on the mound. Cook is 5-1 with an ERA of 2.40. Over his last 3 starts, all win his ERA is 1.59. The Rockies have won 6 of his 7 starts this season. The Padres have lost 8 of their last 10 games. San Diego has a 6-9 home record this season. The Padres have dropped 2 of Peavy’s last 3 starts. In the last 7 meetings between the team’s the Padres are 1-7. Play on the Rockies +.

Big Al Mcmordie

Game: Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins Prediction: Boston Red Sox

Reason: At 8:10pm ET our member selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Minnesota Twins. It took a few weeks, but it now looks like the Boston offense is in full swing. The same team that scored only 17 runs in the eight games between April 23 and May 1 (and only scored more than four runs once during that stretch), has now scored 51 runs in the seven games since then. Certainly, the return of third baseman and last season’s MVP Mike Lowell has something to do with this, but it’s really been the play of firstbaseman Kevin Youkilis that has made the biggest difference. Youkilis is in a zone right now, and could be on his way to succeeding his teammate with MVP hardware of his own this season. Youkilis leads the team in batting average and just tied David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez for the team lead in homers with seven. It’s been quite a different story for the Twins this season as Youkilis, Ramirez, and Ortiz combined have more homers than the entire Minnesota team so far. Clearly the Twins miss the offensive production of All-Star outfielder Torii Hunter, and it’s a shame as their pitching for the most part has been stellar. It would be quite a story in itself if Boston’s lefty Jon Lester was just on the Major League Roster after his recovery from cancer last season, but the fact that he has been dominant in his last three starts with a 2.37 ERA and only 14 hits in 19 innings pitched really makes his comeback accomplishment something special. He could have another productive night tonight against a Twins lineup that has only managed to hit .254 against southpaws so far in ‘08. Take the Red Sox.

LAS VEGAS SPORTS PICS

Utah Jazz – 4 over Los Angeles Lakers

Jazz return home where they went NBA best 37-4 this season down 0-2 due in part to Laker’s home cooking. Utah, while winning the rebounding battle both games, attempted 46 free throws, the Lakers attempted 89. Jazz are 15-3 ATS last 18 home games when favored by less than 5 points.

STEPHEN NOVER

Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates PICK: Over

REASON FOR PICK: Tom Glavine finally is showing his age. Ian Snell has yet to round into form. Both Atlanta and Pittsburgh are underrated hitting teams. All this should result in a double-digit scoring game between the two clubs today.

Glavine was shelled in his last start coming off a hamstring injury, allowing six runs, seven hits and five walks in 4 2/3 innings. The Pirates rank No. 3 in runs scored versus left-handers. Foes are batting above .300 against Glavine this season.

The Braves are first in scoring runs against right-handers, and fourth overall in runs scored. They also rank second in batting average. Snell has a 5.09 ERA. Opponents are batting .313 against him. Snell has a 5.28 career ERA in five starts versus Atlanta. The Braves are hitting .333 in their last six games.

The Braves and Pirates have gone ‘over’ the total during six of their past eight meetings.

Terron Chapman

Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers Play: Oakland Athletics

The Oakland Athletics are tied for first place in the AL west and they’ve done so mainly because of their success on the road. The A’s are 10-5 on the road to start the season and friday night we’ll back them as they hit the road to face the surging Texas Rangers.

The Rangers may be in a letdown spot after returning home from a road trip of their own which saw them take five of seven against two division rivals. That can take a toll on a team and things won’t get any easier with the A’s waiting back in Arlington for their arrival. The A’s are coming off an off day after a three game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles.

Greg Smith will get the call for the A’s and he has been impressive so far this season. The young southpaw will enter Fridays game with a 2-1 record and solid 2.54 ERA. He held the Rangers to just three hits and one earned run in a 3-1 Oakland win in his last start. He will be opposed by Scott Feldman who will get his third start of the season. He took the loss in the game five days ago and is 0-1 on the season with a 5.41 ERA. In twelve innings pitched at home this season he’s allowed 15 hits and 8 earned runs.

The A’s come into this game rested and confident they can get it done on the road. When Smith starts this year the A’s are 5-1 and 8-1 the last 9 road games facing a right handed starter. The A’s take advantage of the off day and start the series and their road trip off on the right foot. Play the Oakland Athletics for 1 unit .

Jim Feist.

BOS Red Sox and MIN Twins Take “MIN Twins”.

Minnesota is in first place because of a terrific bullpen and an excellent home field edge, starting 11-6 at home. Minnesota pitchers lead the majors in fewest walks allowed, which is essential in a hitter’s park like this. Starter Boof Bonser has walked just 9 in 42 innings. He’s also 2-0 lifetime against Boston with a 3.75 ERA. Young Red Sox starter Jon Lester still has control troubles, walking 26 in 45 innings. That’s even more dangerous in a small park like Minnesota. Play the Twins!

Alex Smart

Baltimore Orioles +135

I am expecting Steve Trachsel (1-4, 7.43 ERA) the 37 year old veteran starter for the Baltimore Orioles, to break out of an early season funk, against a struggling KC offense, that ranks last in the AL on the season, with 120 runs. The Orioles, have won 10 straight in this series overall,including 6 straight here in Kauffman and Im recommending backing them to turn the trick again, at a value price. Play on the Orioles

Matt Fargo

New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Play: New York Yankees

The Yankees avoided the sweep on Thursday against the Indians which will provide some much needed momentum heading into this revenge series with the Tigers. Detroit went to Yankee Stadium at the start of last week and took all three games making it five straight wins over the Yankees dating back to last season. New York is 9-9 on the road this season but is 7-5 in its last 12 away from home. Pitching has picked up some of the slack as the unit has allowed three runs or fewer in five of the last six games.

Just when you thought the Tigers were emerging once again following a very slow start, they are once again struggling. After starting the year a miserable 2-10, Detroit reeled off 12 wins in its next 17 games, including that sweep in New York. Since then however, the Tigers have lost six of their last seven games including three of four at home against the Red Sox. Unlike the Yankees, pitching is a real issue as it has allowed five runs or more in five straight games and four runs or more in 12 of the last 13 games.

The Tigers hope to get out of the pitching funk with Kenny Rogers on the hill. Based on his last two outings, things may be on the upswing for Rogers but I am still not sold. Two straight quality outings followed three straight miserable games and I expect one of the latter results here based on the quality start go against theory as well as his struggles with the Yankees. Despite allowing two runs in six innings in New York two starts back, Rogers is 6-7 with a 6.25 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 15 starts against the Yankees.

New York counters will call-up Kei Igawa who will be making his first start of the season. Last year, he was good at times but was also pretty bad at times and even though he was winless on the road, his overall numbers were much better than at home. He should come into this game with some good confidence as opposed to last season when he was just thrown into the fire. The confidence is based on his minor league success as he was 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA in seven starts. Play New York Yankees 1.5 Units

Sports Gambling Hotline

Tonight we like the OVER in the Lakers-Jazz game. After an UNDER in Game One, these teams put up some points in Game Two for the easy OVER.

More of the same tonight, as Utah is on a 21-7 OVER run their last 28 versus the Pacific Division. Not only that, but the OVER between the teams is currently on an 11-5 run the last 16 times these teams have met.

Throw in the fact the Jazz are on an 8-3 OVER tear when they are installed as the favorite, and we feel you are going to see another game in which both teams will be cracking the century mark.

Los Angeles has cracked the 100-point mark in their last 16 games, and for Utah to win this game they must obviously keep pace with the high-scoring Lakers so watch that Energy Solutions scoreboard light-up like a pinball machine in Game Three from Salt Lake City.

Play the OVER.

2* OVER

Paul Leiner

10* Yankees +115

SCOUT

Cleveland -120

Insider Sports Report

Atlanta/Pittsburgh OVER 9

Global Handicapping

Lakers

LT Profits

Baltimore Orioles +130

Now we readily admit that the Kansas City Royals have the starting pitching advantage over the Baltimore Orioles tonight with Gil Meche facing Steve Trachsel, but the Orioles have the edge in enough other areas that we feel they are an overlay at this price.

The Orioles qualify as a play under our Bullpen System, which is 16-11, +5.11 units so far this season. Also, Baltimore has simply dominated the head-to-head series between these clubs, going an unbelievable 40-12 in the last 52 meetings. Even Trachsel has had success vs. Kansas City, allowing just two runs and eight hits in 16 innings over two starts last season, including a Complete Game five-hitter here in this stadium the last time he faced them.

Now Meche is supposed to be the Royals ace, and he did allow just four hits in seven scoreless innings vs. the Cleveland Indians in his last start. However, he has also had a couple of horrid outings this season that have inflated his ERA to 5.98 and his WHIP to 1.52. Furthermore, he is 0-3 with a whopping 9.00 ERA and 1.81 WHIP here in his own stadium.

We look for the Orioles to score some runs here as Meche’s home struggles continue, and for the Baltimore bullpen, which ranks eighth in the Major League with a 3.41 ERA, to hold the lead for the upset win.

Pick: Orioles +130

Arizona Diamondbacks +110

It is not often that you can get Danny Haren at plus odds, so the Arizona Diamondbacks are virtually an automatic play when they visit the Chicago Cubs this afternoon.

Haren is enjoying his first season in Arizona, as he is 4-1 with a 3.12 ERA and a very impressive 0.99 WHIP in 43.1 innings of work. He has recorded six Quality Starts in seven outings, allowing two runs or less in four of those appearances. As if that were not enough to like Arizona as a dog in this spot, consider also that they qualify as a Bullpen System play, as they have the best bullpen ERA in the Major Leagues at 2.70.

Now Ted Lilly has reeled off three consecutive Quality Start for the Cubs after a poor start. However, he did not pitch well the last time he faced the Diamondbacks in the playoffs last year, when he allowed six runs and 11 baserunners while lasting just 3.1 innings, and he is facing a Snakes lineup that has hit southpaw well (.287) this year.

Arizona is 7-3 the last 10 times these clubs have met in Chicago, and we look for the D-Backs to make it 8-3 this afternoon.

Pick: Diamondbacks +110

David Malinsky

St. Louis @ Milwaukee Brewers PICK: Over

It was not quite like waking up on Christmas morning, but the market action on this one had us waking up to something we enjoyed unwrapping – the early 9.5’s have not only gone to 9, but also to where we can play this Over at low juice. We can thank the pitching forms for that, and their inability to truly measure Todd Wellemeyer and Manny Parra. So let’s get to work.

Wellemeyer sports what appears to be a solid 3-1/4.07, but we have little faith in his ability to maintain that level. We are not going out on a limb with that – the Cubs, Marlins and Royals made similar judgment calls over the past three years. We already see signs of him wearing down in his conversion to a starters role, with a 5.29 ERA over his last three starts that was capped by Sunday’s laborious five inning vs. the Cubs, when he needed 95 pitches to merely get that far. The fact that he has not fallen off the table yet means that we are in the right place at the right time (certianly in terms of tonight’s line value).

Meanwhile with Manny Parra it is a case of bucking him while we still can. While a 1-2/5.86 is uninspiring, he has not even been that good, but has benefitted by some good fortune – of the 55 runners that he has put on base in 27.2 innings, only 18 came around to score. That is an extreme rate, particularly for a guy that is nothing special anyway, and while left-handers can often have an early advantage on opponents getting their first look, he does not even have that going for him here – this will already be the third go-round vs. the Cardinals, who have scored six runs on 14 hits and seven walks over nine innings (note the high strand rate in those games as well). And behind Parra the options are not good for Ned Yost, who is still trying to find some bullpen combinations that can work.

Tony Karpinski

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals Play: Kansas City Royals

We look for the Orioles to return to their losing ways tonight behind Steve Trachsel, who owns a terrible 4-20 team start record in the underdog role, including 1-13 on the road. He’ll be opposed by the Royals’ Gil Meche, who is coming off a seven-inning outing where he allowed no runs and four hits against Cleveland. Baltimore has lost Trachsel’s last three starts and his ERA is approaching 10.00. KC rolls tonight!

EZWINNERS DAY BASEBALL

2 STAR: (952) CHICAGO (+$100) over Arizona (Action) (Risking $200 to win $200)

Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Cards/Brewers OVER 9

When these two teams get together in Milwaukee, we normally see a lot of runs. So it should come as no surprise that the Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee. The Over is 5-2 in the Cardinals last 7 games as a road underdog and 5-2 in Wellemeyer’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest. The Over is 5-2 in the Brewers last 7 vs. the National League Central and 21-9-2 in the Brewers last 32 Friday games. Milwaukee is also 20-9 Over at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons and 35-15 vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER here.

Ben Burns

Today’s Pick: Lakers/Jazz UNDER

After a high-scoring Game 2, the over/under line has climbed by several points for Game 3. That provides us with some additional line value. while most are expecting another shootout, I won’t be surprised if the final score is lower than anticipated. The Jazz have held six straight opponents to double-digits in scoring in their last six games here. Those opponents averaged just 87.33 points. The last time the Lakers played here, the total was 216.5 and the teams combined for just 201 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 11-5 the last 16 times that the Lakers played a road game with an over/under line of 210 or greater AND 17-9 the last 26 times they were listed as road dogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. Consider a play on the UNDER.

IndianCowboy

Game: Florida Marlins @ Washington Nationals Pick: 3 units Under 9.5

When making total selections, the principle basis of my selections if pitchers who are on bounce-backs but of course, who are quality pitchers that have the ability to make such bounce-backs, in other words, taking rookies and unproven pitchers to make bounce-backs are not advised as this is the reason for example why I took the under in the Rockes/Cardinals game the other night and it cashed with ease with Francis and Wainwright on the mound as a total of 3 runs were scored until the 8th inning. Similar to that both of these pitchers have positive trends working in their favor for an under today. Keep in mind that Nolasco is a much better pitcher than his 7.46 ERA shows, the last time he gave up a double-digit ERA in a contest, the final score was a 2-3 ballgame against Pittsburgh and he is on a similar bounce-back today as he was roughed up for a 11.59 ERA at home against San Diego, so look for him to come back strong as he did against the Brewers on the road earlier this season when he had below a 2 ERA on that game cashing as a +125 dog. Do the Marlins win? Frankly, it’s a tossup given how well Redding has pitched this year and he has a bit of a revenge against the Nationals for a 6 ERA he gave up against them last time out, although he did get the win in that game, Redding has pitched in 4 of 5 unders when at home when facing a total similar to this, the under is 7-1 when the Marlins are a dog on the road by this margin and the under is 16-4-2 in Redding’s last 22 starts overall.

BRANDON LANG

15 Dime – Phillies (Run Line)

5 Dime – Rockies 5 Dime – Jazz

Scott Rickenbach

Philadelphia Flyers @ Pittsburgh Penguins PICK: Philadelphia Flyers

NHL 1* (regular play) Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) Pittsburgh 7:35 ET – With the injury to defenseman Kimmo Timonen of the Flyers, Philadelphia’s line value in this match-up has simply gone from good to great. Yes, the loss of Timonen is bad news for how it could impact the Flyers throughout this series. However, the NHL is no different than other team sports in that, the first game after a key player goes down, there is often a “rally the troopsâ€? type of effort that ends up paying off big dividends for that team. It is the injured team that is offered, and often also “cashes inâ€?, the additional line value! One of the strengths for the Flyers coming into this series is their depth and this includes their defensive depth. This is now a key with Timonen hurt and we expect the Flyers blue-liners to fill in just fine in his absence in Game One.

As good as Philly has played in this postseason there is still a ton of doubt about this team. We’re not sure what it will take to see more Flyers believers but the way they battled adversity to win Game 7 in Washington should have been a big sign to everyone of what was going to come from this team. For the Flyers to win four straight versus Montreal, after suffering a very tough loss in Game One, says a lot about the strength of this team. Note that those are the same Canadiens against whom the Penguins won just twice in four games. Marc-Andre Fleury struggled in goal against the Habs and, comparatively, we are simply showing you why Philly deserves more respect than they are being given.

In terms of how these teams match-up, Philadelphia took five of the eight meetings with Pittsburgh in the regular season. They are absolutely confident heading into this series and Martin Biron, the Flyers netminder, has also seen his confidence level grow by leaps and bounds as he’s helped Philly to win 8 of their last 11 games in this postseason. This includes a stellar 4-2 mark in their last six road games in these playoffs and note that one of those two losses came in overtime! The Flyers have allowed only about 2.6 goals per game in their last 11 games and Biron has been sharp when it’s counted the most! This is a huge rivalry and, with these teams being very familiar with each other, this is simply far too high of a price for Pittsburgh. The Pens got the benefit of a struggling Senators team to open up the postseason and then they defeated a Rangers team in a series that was much tighter than the 4-1 series result would lead you to believe. The Pens are good but they’re overrated here and the Flyers can absolutely pull off the upset for a great return price in Game One. Play Philadelphia on the money line as a regular selection.

Black Magic Sports

1 Unit on San Diego Padres -137

I will ride the best starter in the league to a nice home victory tonight over the Colorado Rockies. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, Peavy (4-1, 2.22) has carried his dominance into 2008. The 26-year-old righthander surrendered just two runs and five hits in 5 2/3 innings en route to a 7-2 victory over the Florida Marlins on Saturday. San Diego is 11-2 (+9.9 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The Padres turn to their Ace in Jake Peavy to get out of this little slump tonight. Peavy went 8 strong innings, allowing just 4 hits and zero runs in his only start against the Rockies this season. Cash in with San Diego as the favorite.

Tom Freese

Chicago at Seattle

Seattle starter Carlos Silva is 5-11 in 16 career team starts vs. the White Sox with an ERA of 5.76. The Mariners are 6-20 vs. a team that allowed 2 or less runs in their last game and they are 0-7 vs. a team that scored 5 or more runs in their last game. Chicago is 4-1 the last 5 road starts made by Jose Contreras and they are 9-4 when he faces AL West foes. The White Sox 10-3 vs. teams with a win percentage of under 40%.

PLAY ON CHICAGO WHITE SOX