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Thursday 5/8 Service Plays

James Patrick

Milwaukee vs. Florida

The Brew Crew and the Marlins are at the back end of their pitching staffs and that means a lot of offense in tonight’s National League contest. Our Thursday selection is Brewers-Marlins OVER the TOTAL in National League action.

Stephen Nover

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics PICK: Under

REASON FOR PICK: This certainly seems like a low total on the surface. Underline the word surface because with these two teams it’s a mountain of a total to reach.

The Celtics play great defense, especially at home. They are allowing an average of 76 points in five home playoff games. If LeBron James is cold, the Cavaliers have no other scoring options.

Cleveland has gone ‘under’ in 10 of its past 13 games. Cavaliers coach Mike Brown is all about defense. He’s deficient when it comes to designing an effective offense. But his Cavaliers can play intense, tenacious defense.

The combined 148 points in Game 1 fell nearly 30 points short of this total. Yes, the oddsmaker has made a five-point adjustment in the ‘over/under,’ but it’s still not enough.

The Cavaliers shot just 30.7 percent from the floor in Game 1. James had a horrible game shooting. That may not change, though, with the Celtics ganging up on him while just paying lip service to the rest of the Cavalier bricklayers.

Cleveland did hit 22-of-26 (84.6 percent) of its free throws in the opening game. That high percentage isn’t likley to hold up here in Game 2. The Cavaliers were 28th in free throw percentage during the regular season, converting 71.7 percent of their free throws.

The Celtics shot 42.6 percent from the floor. They made 14-of-18 (77.8 percent) of their free throws, which was right around their season average.

Going ‘under’ the total was the right play in Game 1. The bottom line is there is no reason to deviate from that thinking until proven otherwise.

VEGAS EXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY

Washington Nationals at Houston Astros

Look for Houston to pull off the sweep tonight behind Brandon Backe, who has seen his team prevail in 24 of his 29 home starts – an incredible mark. Sure enough, he’s off to a 2-0 start in Minute Maid Park this year (3-0 TSR) with an ERA of 2.55. The Nationals’ .227 batting average away from home certainly won’t help them nor will the Astros’ average of nearly six runs per game at thome this season.

Play on: Houston

LT Profits

Florida Marlins -105

The surprising Florida Marlins have helped get our Bullpen System off to a winning start, and they get the call again tonight vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Marlins ate tied for first place in the National League East with the Philadelphia Phillies with a 19-14 record, thanks to a bullpen that ranks sixth in the Major Leagues with a 3.03 ERA. Their starter tonight Mark Hendrickson has also been pitching out of his mind with a 5-1 record, 3.71 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. No, we do not feel Big Mark is this good, but with the support of the pen, we do feel he is capable of another victory here.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee starter Carlos Villanueva is struggling along with a 5.56 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, and the Brewers have not provided much relief with a 4.49 pen ERA. Also, the Marlins are now 23-9 in the last 32 head-to-head meetings between these clubs here in the Florida sunshine.

It seems as though the Marlins have been undervalued this season, and that appears to be the case again tonight.

Pick: Marlins -105

San Antonio Spurs -6.5

The New Orleans Hornets have dominated the San Antonio Spurs the first two games of this series, especially in the second half, but we think it will be a different story here in San Antonio.

NBA teams returning home for Game 3 down 0-2 have been a great bet this season, continuing a long-standing pattern in this league. Besides, the Spurs are 37-7 straight up at home this year while winning by an average of +9.1 points. Worse teams than San Antonio have risen from the deck to win Game 3 in this circumstance, so there is no reason to believe the Spurs can’t win by double-digits here.

Now this is in no way a slight toward the Hornets, who have already proven this post-season that they are for real. However, remember that their only playoff loss so far came in Game 3 at Dallas when up 2-0, the identical circumstances as these. The difference though is that the Spurs are a tougher opponent than the Mavericks.

Thus, look for a similar result here as the San Antonio handily closes the series gap to 2-1.

Pick: Spurs -6.5

Mike Rose

Minnesota Twins +135

Getting the starting nod for the Twins this afternoon will be right-hander Kevin Slowey. He opened the season in the big club’s starting rotation, but a right biceps strain in his first start of the season sent him to the DL right away. After rehabbing the injury, he got three starts under his belt in the minors. He last start came for Triple-A Rochester back on May 1st when he threw five innings of two-run ball with a K/BB ratio of 9/2. He’ll be taking the place of the recently injured Scott Baker. Slowey started 11 games for the Twins last season and made MLB bettors some coin by compiling a 4-1 overall mark with a 4.73 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He’s a big strikeout pitcher that fanned 49 while only walking 11. He faced the White Sox once last season and tossed a gem throwing seven innings of one-run ball while striking out nine and not issuing a walk in the Twins 4-1 home victory.

Opposing him will be lefty John Danks who’s been a strong component of Chicago’s staff to start the season. He enters this afternoons start 2-3 but with a solid 3.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He’s allowed 28 hits and 12 earned runs with a K/BB ratio of 25/8 in almost 35 innings of work. Danks allowed two runs or less in five of his six starts this season, but the one start he got rocked in just so happened to come against these Minnesota Twins. He got shelled a month ago at US Cellular to the tune of seven hits and seven earned runs in just 2 1/3rd innings of work, and in his career, he’s 1-3 with a bloated 8.35 and 1.90 WHIP in four starts against the Twins.

The Twins now stand 4-2 against the White Sox this season, and they’re 8-1 their L/9 against the AL Central. They’re also 8-3 the L/11 times they faced a left-hander on the road, which includes Wednesday nights thrashing of Mark Buehrle. Making the Twins that much sweeter a betting proposition is the fact that Chicago is 1-6 in Danks’ L/7 home starts, and they’ve lost each of his L/4 starts when installed the favorite.

Ross Benjamin

Game:San Francisco (Cain) @ Pittsburgh (Maholm) Pick: Pittsburgh -130

The Pittsburgh starter Paul Maholm is 3-0 in his team starts at home this season while posting a brilliant 0.89 ERA in the process. After taking the first 2 games of the series Pittsburgh is now 14-3 in the last 17 versus San Francisco. Pittsburgh is 11-3 in the last 14 as a favorite of 1.50 or less and 12-4 in the last 16 as a home favorite. The Giants are 2-8 in the last 10 on the road versus a left-handed starting pitcher and 9-23 in the last 32 on the road overall. The Giants are 5-16 in the last 21 on the road when Matt Cain is their starting pitcher. Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates as my free selection of the day.

Jimmy Moore

Game: Dallas @ Detroit Pick: Dallas pick +170

I think the Red Wings will win this series in 5 or 6 games but in game 1 the Stars will have their best chance to steal a game in Detroit with the Wings having a week long lay off after sweeping Colorado and Dallas having enough time to recover from their 4OT clincher against San Jose. Bet Detroit in the series but put a small investment on Dallas in game 1.

John Fina

Selection: Cleveland/New York Under 9.5

Today we expect a low-scoring game as the Cleveland Indians do battle with the New York Yankees. One reason why we expect a low-scoring game is because both these teams will send to the mound starting pitcher who have been playing very well as of late. This says it all… The Cleveland Indians Starting Pitcher (Paul Byrd) has a 2.21 ERA in his last 3 starts, while New York Yankees Starting Pitcher (Mike Mussina) has a 2.50 ERA in his last 3 starts. To say the least, we see both these pitchers having great games once again today. In addition, these teams have a history of playing low-scoring games when they meet. In fact, the Under is a Perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. We expect to see another low-scoring game today!

Take the Cleveland Indians/New York Yankees Under 9.5

VEGAS SPORTS PICS

Cleveland Cavaliers + 8 over (at) Boston Celtics

New Orleans Hornets + 7 over (at) San Antonio Spurs

Karl Garrett

I know Matt Cain is a promising young hurler, but let’s face facts, Pittsburgh starter Paul Maholm just doesn’t lose at home!

The southpaw is 2-0 in his 3 starts in the Steel City, and his ERA is a measly 0.89. No issue today in laying the small home wood with Pittsburgh as they look for the 3-game series sweep over the slumping Giants.

San Francisco has lost their last 3, and 5 of their last 7. They are also 6-12 on the road this year, and the G-Man has a feeling that after today you can drop their road ledger for the season to 6-13.

Maholm pitched a complete game win over San Fran last season, allowing just 1 earned run to cross the plate.

It is getaway day, and the Giants can’t getaway too soon in this one.

G-Man says to go with Maholm at home to notch another “W”, as the Bucs complete the series sweep.

4* PITTSBURGH

Sports Gambling Hotline, Featured Handicapper

Going for total winner #3 in a row tonight as we like the Hornets-Spurs game to hold UNDER the posted price.

Thus far the Hornets have had their way, netting triple-digits in both wins at home – one going UNDER, the last going OVER. Tonight we feel the Spurs defense must keep New Orleans in the 80’s if they are to have a chance to win this game. Eaiser said then done, but we like it to happen with San Antonio back on their home hardwood for this one.

The last 7 times these teams have met, it has been a 4-2-1 UNDERA clip, and prior to this series, the Hornets had played UNDER the posted price in the last 3 games in the Dallas series, while the Spurs had been UNDER in the last 2 games in the Phoenix series.

Points are hard to come by tonight, play the LOW!

1* UNDER

Jim Feist.

WAS Nationals and HOU Astros. Take “HOU Astros”.

The best way to handicapp the last place Washington Nationals is to look to play on them at home, where they have a winning record, but fade them on the road, where they are 4-11. They are 2-7 their last nine road games. Despite throwing in a great pitcher’s park, Washington starter John Lannan has allowed more hits than innings pitched. He also has 5.40 ERA against the Astros, and Houston is a hitter’s park. Houston has struggled badly on the road, but started 10-5 at home, where they average almost 6 runs per game. A cheap price on the home team, play the Houston Astros!

Tony Mathews

Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles

Selection: Baltimore Orioles

Explanation: We will side with the Baltimore Orioles as they face-off against the Kansas City Royals in Thursday’s MLB contest.

The Baltimore Orioles will use starting pitcher Daniel Cabrera. Daniel Cabrera has pitched well as of late. In fact, Daniel Cabrera has a 2.91 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Daniel Cabrera having another solid start today.

The Kansas City Royals will use starting pitcher Luke Hochevar. Luke Hochevar has been struggling as of late. This is shown by Luke Hochevar’s 4.86 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Luke Hochevar giving up many runs once again today.

The Baltimore Orioles have proven success against the Kansas City Royals. In fact, the Baltimore Orioles are a Perfect 10-0 in their last 10 meetings against the Kansas City Royals.

Take Baltimore Orioles!

EZWINNERS

DAY MLB

3 STAR PARLAY: (916) CHICAGO ($139) and (908) ARIZONA ($146) (Listing Danks and Webb only) (Risking $300 to win $569)

2 STAR: (902) PITTSBURGH (-$121) over San Francisco (Action) (Risking $242 to win $200)

2 STAR: (906) COLORADO (-$110) over St. Louis (Action) (Risking $220 to win $200)

Matt Fargo

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners PICK: Texas Rangers

REASON FOR PICK: Things are not going good in Seattle and it is starting to boil over with some frustrations. Seattle has dropped seven of its last eight games and 11 of its last 14 as both the offense and the pitching is causing the problems. The bats have mustered two runs or fewer in six of the last seven games and the Mariners have averaged a mere 3.1 rpg over their last 18 games. The pitching has not been quite as bad but it has allowed five runs or more in five of the last eight games.

While Seattle can’t seem to shake its slump, the Rangers have done just that. Texas had dropped 12 of 14 games but since then it has gone a very solid 8-4 including wins in six of its last eight games. The pitching was getting lit up on a nightly basis but that pitching has turned the corner is a big way, allowing three runs or fewer in six of the last seven games. The offense has been up and down but the Rangers are hitting .289 against right-handed pitching over their last 10 games.

Felix Hernandez was clearly miffed as he has been vocal about the lack of run support the starting pitching is receiving. He has received four runs or fewer in six of his seven starts on the season so he does have some room to complain but it should not be public. Also, it should not come out when you allow six runs on 12 hits and three walks in just 5.2 innings. This was the line in Hernandez’ last outing and it was one of the worst in his young career in Seattle. He is just 4-4 with a 4-10 ERA in 11 starts against the Rangers.

The Rangers sent Kason Gabbard to the hill following his return from the disabled list. He has been pitching well enough to keep the Rangers in games as he stays out of trouble. He is coming off a medical rehabilitation assignment in Double-A on Saturday and allowed one run on one hit and three walks in four innings. He has allowed three runs or fewer in his four starts this year and the Rangers have gone 3-1 in those contests and he is once again getting a very favorable price. Play Texas Rangers 1.5 Units

lasvegassportsadvisors

Texas

Global Sports Picks

BALTIMORE ORIOLES -105

MIKE WYNN

Houston w/Backe -125

THE VEGAS STEAMLINE

DETROIT w/ Verlander +115

HUDDLE UP

St Louis

BIG TIME SPORTS

BREWERS / MARLINS UNDER 9.5

Insider Sports Report

St. Louis/Colorado OVER 10.5

PLATINUM PLAYS

KANSAS CITY ROYALS – 105

las vegas sports advisors

Texas

COMPUTER SPORTS

SEATTLE-165

TV HOTLINE

PITTSBURGH -125

Hot Lock sports

San Antonio Spurs -6.5

PAUL LEINER

10* Over 7.5 SF/Pitt 10* Diamondbacks -160 5* Yankees -140

Drew Gordon

3* FLORIDA MARLINS -105

Break out the brooms, as the Fish make it 3 for 3 tonight against the Brewers, who’ve not only struggled mightily on the road of late, losing 6 of their last 7 away, but also in South Florida, losing 7 of their last 9 meetings there! More of the same tonight, as we already saw southpaw Scott Olsen shut this Brewers batting order down, and tonight, its lefty Mark Hendrickson’s turn! We saw these two starters face off April 26th in Milwaukee, as the Brewers got the 4-3 win, but it was hardly Hendrickson’s fault, allowing 2 earned on 5 hits over 6 solid innings! While Carlos Villanueva had almost identical numbers in that game, there’s reason for concern in this rematch… Namely, the Brewers offense is sputtering, and they’ve had a hell of time with lefties on the road this season, batting just .194 against them! Also, speaking of Villanueva, have you noticed the difference between his numbers at home versus on the road? He’s gotten bombed in his two road starts this season, allowing 11 runs in 9 2/3 innings, posting a ridiculous 10.24 ERA away… What makes you think it’ll be any different against the Marlins tonight? Fish have won 4 of their last 5 AND have been much better against righties, batting .276 against them on the year. Bottom line, Marlins get the sweep, beating down the Brewers with another southpaw this Thursday. Hendrickson has been rock-solid, while Villanueva has been anything but on the road this season. Fish roll! Take Florida behind Hendrickson over Milwaukee and Villanueva in this MLB match up.

Brandon Lang

20 Dime – Spurs

10 Dime – Red Sox

FREE – DAYTIME DOG – Phillies – NIGHTIME DOG – Nationals, NBA – CAVS

JeffMoney

Yanks -140 (pod) Pirates -120 Marlins -105 Orioles -105

Hornets +7

Alex Smart

Indians/Yankees Under 9.5 3 units

Braves -150 3 units

HIGHROLLERPLAYS

Cleveland – Boston Cleveland +8.5 Risk: 2 units

Cleveland – Boston Under 177.5 Odd Risk: 2 units

Pittsburgh – Philadelphia Pick: Ot include: Pittsburgh -1.5 Risk: 2 unts Return:

Pittsburgh – Philadelphia Pick: Ot include: Over 5.5 Risk: 2 unts

Rocketman Sports

New Orleans Hornets vs. San Antonio Spurs Play: San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio is 37-7 SU at home this year. San Antonio has allowed only 89.2 points per game at home this season. San Antonio is 5-1 SU at home vs New Orleans last 3 years. Hornets are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Hornets are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Hornets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games. Spurs are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Spurs are 14-3-2 ATS in their last 19 playoff games as a favorite. Spurs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. Spurs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. Spurs are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. We’ll recommend a small play on San Antonio tonight!