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Wednesday 5/7 Service Plays

Alex Smart

Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees Under 7.5

The Cleveland Indians and the NY Yankees prepare to send two top quality hurlers to the hill this afternoon in the Bronx Zoo, as Chien Ming Wang (6-0, 3.00) goes for the pinstripes and Cliff Lee (5-0, 0.96 ERA) returns fire for the Tribe. Despite of the talent both these teams have in their lineup, they have both struggled in certain situations and against southpaw and righty throwers. The Yankees are hitting a lowly .211 as a team vs lefties like Lee during their L/10 games. The Indians against right handers like Wang have hit for a ugly .204 BA during the same span. With two capable bullpens backing both these pitchers tonight, and both teams documented struggles at the plate, a low scoring game very much looks to be on the agenda. Final notes & Key Trends: Cleveland have gone under in 8 of their L/10 overall. The NYY have stayed on the low side of the number, in 8 of their L/9 and 10 of their L/11 against a team with a losing record like the Indians. Play under

Jimmy The Moose

Game: San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates

Reason: The Giants are 6-11 this season on the road and in their last 31 road games they are 9-22. San Francisco is 6-15 in their last 21 road games as an underdog. The Giants are 0-5 in the last 5 games Mischs has started. The Pirats are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a home favorite. The Pirates bats came alive last night and beat up on the Giants and you can expect more of the same tonight. The Pirates are 11-2 in the last 13 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Pirates -.

Matt Fargo

Cleveland Indians vs. New York Yankees Play: Cleveland Indians

The Indians snagged Game One of this series last night on a big home run in the eighth inning and that momentum can carry over into tonight. The win snapped a small two-game losing skid but more importantly it halted the Yankees three-game winning steak. Cleveland is now above .500 on the road as it has now won four in a row away from home. Pitching has been the strength and that continues tonight with Cliff Lee on the hill. The Indians have a 3.13 ERA over their last 10 games.

New York is now just 8-8 at home as the inconsistent season continues. It has been all about the streaks as the Yankees have now lost six straight games following a loss in their first game. The offense is surely to blame as of their 17 losses on the season, the Yankees have scored four runs or fewer in 13 of those defeats, averaging just 3.1 rpg in those 17 games. New York is just 1-7 in its last eight games as a favorite and it is hitting a mere .202 against left-handed pitching over its last 10 games.

There is not much more than can be said about Cliff Lee as he is having an incredible season thus far. He is 5-0 with a 0.98 ERA and 0.56 WHIP as he has dominated in every game he has gone out on the hill. He is coming off his worst start of the season against the Mariners but even that was a solid effort, allowing three runs in six innings. He has yet to allow a single earned run on the road, tossing 23.2 innings of shutout baseball with the exception of one unearned run against Oakland.

Chien-Ming Wang is having a spectacular season as well as he is a perfect 6-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He has had only one blemish and that came against the Red Sox where he allowed eight runs in just four innings. That was not a huge surprise as he has always struggled against Boston and Cleveland fits into that same category. He has a 5.63 ERA in six appearances against the Indians. He shut them down earlier this season but a second crack at him favors the offense this time around. Play Cleveland Indians 1.5 Units

LAS VEGAS SPORTS PICS

Detroit Pistons + 3.5 over (at) Orlando Magic

Detroit is 7-2 ATS last nine Semifinals games. The Pistons up 2-0 have defeated the Magic last nine playoff meetings, including a 4-0 sweep last season – winning at Orlando 93-77 and 97-93.

EZWINNERS DAY

MLB

1 STAR: (953) NY METS (+$113) over LA Dodgers (Listing Maine only) (Risking $100 to win $113)

1 STAR: (967) BALTIMORE (+$128) over Oakland (Listing Guthrie only) (Risking $100 to win $128)

Dave Cokin.

NY Mets and LA Dodgers. Take “LA Dodgers”.

The Dodgers continue to be red hot as they go for the sweep against the Mets. John Maine is not throwing like he did last year, and he’s allowing an alarming number of baserunners. Brad Penny is also struggling perhaps a little more than some of his stats might indicate. His K/IP ratio is way down. But Penny usually finds a way to hang tough and there’s no question LA is in far superior team form presently. I’ll spot the price with the Dodgers here.

Sports Gambling Hotline

Tonight we like some offense to show up in Orlando, as the Pistons and Magic clash in Game Three of their best of seven set.

Game One was easily UNDER the total, but Game Two landed OVER the posted price with relative ease. Same tonight, as we believe those 7 three-pointers in a row the Magic hit in Game Two will have a carryover effect now that they are shooting at home.

5 of the last 7 series meetings (playoffs included) have eclipsed the total, and 8 of the last 11 overall between the teams have sailed OVER the posted price.

Orlando needs to get on board in this series, or face the prospect of going down 0-3, so expect the Magic to lay it all on the line tonight and this game to find its way into the OVER column.

Play the high.

3* OVER

Bobby Maxwell

I know, I know. Barry Zito has been horrible this season and pretty horrible since becoming a San Francisco Giant. He?s 0-6 with a 7.53 ERA and he got ripped hard in his last start. Hes been demoted to the bullpen and much was made about such a high-priced pitcher being sent to the pen.

You know its been eating away at him and lets remember he is still young, won the AL Cy Young in 2002 and even went 3-2 with a 3.10 ERA in his last nine starts last season. You know the inner-drive within him will not let him go out there and get bombed again. Hes too good a pitcher and hell be locked in mentally tonight.

Phil Dumatrait (0-1, 4.74) goes for Pittsburgh in this one and hes taken the place of veteran Matt Morris who was released after five poor starts. Dumatrait gave up four runs in four innings in his debut against the Nationals on Friday.

The Pirates have really struggled against left-handed pitching in their last 10 games, hitting just .228 against southpaws and going 2-10 in their last 12 outings against a lefty. Lets take a shot, grab the plus-money and go with Zito and the Giants today. Watch as he shows some of his old form and gets us a winner.

2* SAN FRANCISCO

Terron Chapman

LAA Angels vs. Kansas City Royals Play: LAA Angels

The Kansas City Royals look to avoid a three game sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels and they will send their best pitcher to the mound to help get it done.

Zack Grienke will get the call for the Royals and is tabbed with the slight chalk by oddsmakers and rightfully so given his 4-2 record and 1.47 ERA. The one team Grienke has struggled with however is the Los Angeles Angels whose current lineup is hitting .353 with an 1.060 OPS against the young hurler. In his only two starts against the Angels, both at home he was tagged for 22 hits and 11 earned runs in 10 innings pitched never lasting more than five inngings. The Royals lost both of those games.

Jared Weaver pitched well his last outing on the road and should do so here as well. He has been solid against the Royals despite poor run support. He has lost his last three against the Royals but owns a 2.84 ERA in those losses. He should get the needed run support tonight to get his first win against the Royals since 2006.

The Royals own the majors worst home record at 5-9 and are just 2-10 the last 12 games with the chalk. They are just 2-11 in Grienke’s last 13 vs. the AL west. The Angels have won 20 out of the last 26 meetings in Kansas City. Play the Angels for 2 units

floridabookybusters

Cleveland

lasvegassportsadvisors.com

Toronto

Templer’s Sports Picks

Washington/Odalis Perez +1.5

HotLocksports

Philadelphia

Sharp Sports Advisors

CLEVELAND INDIANS

ARMVIN SPORTS

CHICAGO CUBS

Paul Leiner

5* Cubs +115

Locksmith Sports Picks

1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -108

After getting shut out in game 1, I like the powerful Milwaukee lineup to come storming back in game 2 tonight. The Marlins have not been able to string wins together. They are just 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win, 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home underdog, and 0-5 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series. The Brewers are 7-2 in their last 9 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game, 15-6 in their last 21 during game 2 of a series, and 6-1 in Bush’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Brewers are in position for an offensive explosion tonight against Badenhop and his 7.20 ERA. Take the Beer Makers.

Nite Owl Sports

Game: Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic Pick: 3 units : Detroit Pistons +3.5

With Magic being down 0-2 in series, this game 3 is a must win for them, so you just go with the team that needs the win the most right? Not necessarily, especially when that team has played as poorly at home as Orlando has TY against A teams like Detroit. In their 7 such home games TY after Jan 15, Orlando has shown very little “magic,” going just 2-5 both SU and ATS in those 7, with an average MOL (margin of loss) of 4 points in those 7, and one of those two wins was over a crippled Boston team w/o their best player, Kevin Garnett. Their other win was against these Detroit Pistons, but only by 2, and Magic is favored by 3.5 here. Its also significant that in their other game between these two TY in Orlando, Pistons trashed the Magic by 24 points, shooting 59% overall and 47% from behind the arc. In their six games on the road vs A teams for the same sampling period (regular season, since Jan 15), Pistons have been up and down, with two good wins at Phoenix (by 30 !!) and at Denver, but bad losses (by 16 and 12) at Cleve and Boston. But when Detroit goes into an offensive funk on the road, it has been against good defensive teams like Celtics and Cavs, not against up tempo teams like Denver, Phoenix and Orlando.

Now lets look at how Pistons did LY in a similar situation to tonite (up 2-0 and playing on the road they were 2-1 SU and ATS, winning easily at Orlando and Chicago, and losing only at NBA East champ Cleve). Although Detroit is notorious for letting up and getting upset when they are not focused (like in games 1 and 3 of Philly series TY), we expect to see the same team tonite that blew out Sixers on the road in games 4 and 6 of that series.

We believe Detroit has a good chance to win this one SU, so we also recommend taking Pistons for two units on the money line, to win +3> units at the nice plus odds of +150 to 155 (in addition to taking them at +3.5 points) to do just that. When both of these picks win, you will be up over 6 units.

But as much as we like Detroit in this spot, we like the total in this game even better, but you will have to either buy that pick (for just $25) or our one day NBA pass (which will also include at least one pick on Laker-Jazz game) to get it. We are a scorching 14-2-1 for +27 units over the last four days, including 9-1 for +20 units in NBA and 6-0 for +13 units on our POD (Play of the Day) picks. You saw our write up above. You saw what we did with our free 5 unit pick on Boston over Atlanta in Sundays newsletter. So give us a shot and see what we can do for you. Now lets go out and kick some ass in these NBA playoffs.

Bob Akmens

Detroit Tigers +110

This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 162 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.

The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.

Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows (ATS = against-the-spread) –

These are two young pitchers headed in opposite directions so far.

The BOSTON RED SOX have LOST all 4 of Clay Buchholz’s road starts, and in every one of them he was favored to win.

The DETROIT TIGERS have won both of Armando Galarraga’s home starts.

And the Bosox are actually the favorite here, yet again!

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it�

George Santayana

Go with DETROIT +110

WUNDERDOG

Game: Chicago at Cincinnati Pick: Cincinnati -1.5 runs +170

Edinson Volquez still is well under the radar. The numbers don’t lie. The numbers make the case that he has been the best pitcher in baseball thus far in ‘08. The log is eye-opening. He has worked 35 innings, 24 hits, five runs, 42 K’s. He has yet to allow more than five hits in all six of his starts, and has not allowed more than a single earned run in all six starts. Jon Lieber has not made a start all season, so his innings will be limited. As a division winner last year, the Phillies were 3-9 with him as a starter. Lots of good numbers for the Reds against Lieber, and we look for them to win comfortably at home.

MTi

4.5-Star Utah +6.5 over LA LAKERS In game one of this series, the Jazz shot 37.9% from the field including 4-of-19 from the arc. Their starters were a combined 1-14 from three-point territory and, as a team, they missed eight free throws. The well-coached Utah Jazz is famous for their intensity and determination in this situation. They are a sparkling 10-0 ATS on the road when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss, covering by an average of 10.2 ppg – winning each of the last five straight up. In their last qualifying game, they beat the Hornets 77-66 in New Orleans on April 8th as a 5-point dog.

We also have a league-wide system that has been perfect since the 2003-04 playoffs. It reads, “the League is 11-0 ATS (+9.5 ppg) as a road dog with two or more days of rest after a game in which they shot at least 10 percentage points lower than their season-to-date average from the field and less than 85% from the line. The last qualifying team in this situation was these Utah Jazz, when they beat the Rockets 93-82 as a slight road dog in round 1 of this season’s playoffs.

In game one, the Lakers played team defense and team offense. A whopping 24 of their 33 baskets were assisted, with Bryant leading the team with 7. This type of game seems to cause the Lakers, especially Kobe Bryant, to go from a Bryant-dominated offense to a egalitarian offense. This is not the way the Lakers’ offense should be run and it causes problems. Indeed, the Lakers are 0-15 ATS with two or more days of rest after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average, as long as they weren’t laying 8+ points. LA is only 1-14 straight up in this situation, with their lone win over the Grizzlies. In their last two, both from this season, they lost by double digits.

Looking at the player-based trends we find that the Lakers are 0-4 ATS DURING THE PLAYOFFS at home after winning the previous matchup at home in which Kobe Bryant was the Lakers’ high scorer.

As for the Jazz, they are 8-0 ATS (9.5 ppg) when seeking revenge for a road loss in which Carlos Boozer had more turnovers than assists and 6-0 ATS DURING THE PLAYOFFS with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Deron Williams was not the Jazz’s high scorer, covering the spread by an average of 14.6 ppg.

Because the Lakers are undefeated in the playoffs and they looked so good in game one, the series price on this one is currently a big overlay. Currently, the Jazz are something like +475 to win this series. We think they will win tonight, and if they do, this price will drop precipitously. Remember, the Jazz were 37-4 at home during the regular season and if they win tonight, all they have to do is “hold serve” to win this series.

The Jazz are a focused, dedicated and quiet team, whereas the Lakers are in the news with Bryant’s MVP award. Utah’s play tonight will speak for them. Take the Jazz plus the points tonight and if you want to play them on the moneyline, +475 in the series is better than +265 tonight.

MTi’s FORECAST: Utah 98 LA LAKERS 92

4-Star ORLANDO -3’ over Detroit One thing I think we can count on here is a less-than-urgent effort from the Pistons. So, all we have to worry about is the Magic. Will they be discouraged by their near miss in game two, or will they be inspired and buoyed by the home crowd. We expect the latter.

Detroit is a poor 0-12 ATS as a road dog with at most one day of rest when they have won and covered their last three games, as long as the total is less than 200 points. In addition, the Pistons are 0-5 ATS (-7.9 ppg) on the road after winning the previous matchup in which Tayshaun Prince had a double-double.

Turning our attention to the Magic, we find that they are a perfect 18-0 ATS with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Dwight Howard played more than 40 minutes – including 10-0 ATS last season. In addition, Orlando is 11-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) after a loss on the road in which Rashard Lewis played more than 40 minutes and 10-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) after a loss on the road in which Dwight Howard was the Magic’s high scorer. We have still more. The Magic are 8-0 ATS (7.7 ppg) as a favorite when seeking revenge for a loss in which Maurice Evans took fewer than 10 shots and 8-0 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss in which Dwight Howard had at least 5 turnovers. If the Magic come to play, and all indications are that they will, they can beat the Pistons going away.

MTi’s FORECAST: ORLANDO 98 Detroit 87

4-Star Utah at LA Lakers UNDER 209’ The Jazz can do something that the Nuggets can’t – play tough team defense. We expect Utah to play a half-court, defensive game today, with their “bigs” focusing on defense rather than scoring. As evidence, Utah is 0-5 OU when seeking revenge for a road loss in which Mehmet Okur was the Jazz’s high scorer, staying under by an average of a whopping 19.5 ppg. In addition, the Jazz are 0-5 OU as a dog after losing the previous matchup on the road in which Deron Williams was not the Jazz’s high scorer, staying under by an average of 18.6 ppg.

That said, the major reason, for this play is a playoff-only player-based trend involving Kobe Bryant. In the playoffs, the Lakers are a perfect 0-7 OU since the 2003-04 NBA playoffs after two wins in which Kobe Bryant scored at least 30 points in each. In their lone active date this playoffs, they went under by 44 points in game 3 vs the Nuggets. In addition, LA is 0-7 OU after a win at home in which Derek Fisher had more assists than points.

With the Jazz a perfect 0-10 OU (-15.6 ppg) after a road loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent, there’s only one way to take this total – UNDER.

MTi’s FORECAST: UTAH 98 LA Lakers 92

Brandon Lang

15 Dime – Braves Run Line 15 Dime – Lakers 15 Dime – Red Sox