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BRITISH OPEN PREVIEW
TSB MIKE (Professional Handicapper) about 1 month ago |

It’s time for The British Open!

Love this tournament for many reasons, with these being the Top 2.

1. $$$$

2. Early, early action.

Anyone looking to be PRE-tournament best get this action in in the next 8 hours, as the tournament starts late this evening here in the States.

This year is going to be classic. WIth the British Open, the first thing you MUST talk about is the Weather.

If you can predict the weather, you are already one up on everyone else. I’ll be honest, i’ve spent as much time looking at this weather as i have the tournament itself. The conclusion i’ve come to is, “Who Knows” what we will have from day to day. Heck, we might not even know from hour to hour. However, you can count on RAIN AND WIND. That’s just the way it goes at the British.

With tough elements, you typically look for a player who is strong mentally. You also look for strong ball strikers to do well, as the wind doesn’t manipulate the ball as much. With the rain that fell today in particular, it will help the player who hits it higher and longer. However, with the wind you are looking for a player that also can hit the ball low. What i’m getting at is this is the ultimate test. The course very well might play differently each day. The type of player that is going to win here is one that is strong mentally, and who can literally hit EVERY SHOT in the bag.

like it or not, each golf tournament starts with the betting favorite.

Tiger Woods.

This week very well might be the week for him. Anyone that follows my golf work year in and year out knows that i fade him every chance i get. This year alone, there hasn’t been a single time where i’ve backed him.

That changes this week. I firmly believe he contends this week, and it wouldn’t suprise me at all if he won. He loves St. Andrews. He loves it so much that he puts up with the British press, and he’s ultimately content here. I know this based on how he’s handling the interview room. It’s funny how so many have it backwards. WIth Tiger being short with the media, most people and experts think he’s bothered emotionally. I actually find the opposite to be true, at least with Tiger. When Tiger makes himself vulnerable, that’s when i’ve known in the past that’s he’s struggling. That’s not the case this week. He has that confidence about him, at least that’s what i see.

I know, people are going to talk about the change of putter. I like the change personally. Whenever you put a new putter in the bag, it’s for a reason. Sure he’s been struggling of late and that’s part of the reason he’s changed putters. However, with his success at St. Andrews, he knows what he needs to do to be ready. He’s changed putters this week to handle the slower greens. Tiger struggling this year putting has no influence on how he putts this week because the greens are so completely different. It’s like playing different types of Poker, there are no comparisons.

The common belief is how weak Tiger has performed of late. While he hasn’t won, in the two tournaments he truly cares about he’s tied for 4th in each. That would be the 2 majors so far this year. Some will say that those 2 events were right up his alley, and that’s why he finished so high. My response is what about St. Andrews??? All he’s done there is WIN. Tiger has gone on the record to say that this is his favorite course ever, and his results speak for himself here.

I believe he’s going to win, it’s just a matter of the price we are getting. 5-1 just isn’t enough to me, and i’ll grab another line i like even more to secure our wager. That’s coming.

However, i wanted to give my thoughts on him this week. Everywhere i look and read, it’s the fact that Tiger shouldn’t be the betting favorite. I’ll admit, the fact they are even openly talking betting odds is a start. However, these guys talking betting odds truly don’t understand what goes into the making of the odds in the first part, so their rationale is FLAWED at best. These guys talking about odds is great, because too many people are betting off what they see with the natonal media. That’s all good, because we will fade that thinking, and for good reason. We’ve been betting on golf longer than any of these “experts” to begin with, so let’s get started with the wagers.

I’m not going to list my thoughts on each player featuring odds of 100-1 or less. I did that for the US OPEN, but i’m not going to do that here. That’s because of the WEATHER.

Instead, i’ll just put out my wagers that i personally wagered on.

Now, 2 things before i get started.

Shop the best line. I’ll give an example.

Rght now, i see Charl Schwartzel at 40-1 and 70-1 to win the British. Those odds are courtesy of bodog and betus. So the same result, but two vastly different betting lines. SHOP THE BEST LINE!

Every golf tournament this happens. I put out all this info,and wagers, at no charge. ALWAYS, i get asked “where did you get this line” and my book doesn’t list this. Every wager i put out comes from BODOG unless otherwise noted. Remember that.

SCORING PROPS.

This is where we are going to make our money. We made MASSIVE money at the US OPEN with these wagers, and we will do that again. I can’t stress enough how important it is to hit these exact wagers hard. After i put out this tournament preview, i’ll isolate the guys we are looking to in Round 1. Those that follow me know why we are so successful betting these wagers through bodog. I’m not going to tell that story again.

Let’s do work, and thanks for following! Let’s make that $$$$.

My biggest PRE-Tournament wager:

THE BIG 6 VS. THE FIELD. (+125). RIght now this wager is at +150 at Betus. I’ve already stated that i think Tiger wins this week. His odds are just +500. Now, there are 3 players that i also am high on this week. They are: PADDY HARRINGTON, RORY MCILROY, and ERNIE ELS. In this “Big 6” we get those three players, along with Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood. Typically this type of wager comes out at +162. It’s lower this week for a reason. So, for those that like Tiger, there is absolutely no reason not to add these other 5 players, and still get PLUS money.

If you look at who wins at St. Andrews, it’s quite the list. Legends win here, plain and simple. If Tiger doesn’t win, i expect one of the other prominent players in the world to do so. At worst, we can hedge out of this wager going into the final round. At +125 and even +150, this is VALUE.

The only other wagers i’m making bigger than this is the DAILY SCORING PROPS

Here are my 5 other wagers i’m on:

The following 3 players to finish in the Top 10. All 3 come at +, so we know the math needed to profit. I could only put out 2 of these players, and ensure profit with just 1 hitting. However, i think we get all 3 of these in the Top 10.

RORY MCILROY TO FINISH IN THE TOP TEN: +165

ERNIE ELS TO FINISH IN THE TOP TEN: +150

PADRAIG HARRINGTON TO FINISH IN THE TOP TEN: +180 *

The other 2 wagers are tournament head to head matchups. This is for the ENTIRE TOURNAMENT:

DAVID DUVAL -110 Tom Watson

CHARL SCHWARTZEL -115 K.J. Choi *

With the above stated big wager already bet, let’s move on to some “long shots.”

PAUL CASEY, 35-1:

ROSS FISHER, 40-1:

SEAN O’HAIR, 66-1:

CHARL SCHWARTZEL, 70-1:

ALVARO QUIROS, 80-1:

TREVOR IMMELMAN, 100-1:

RHYS DAVIES, 100-1:

Those 7 players i might put down just a bit on to win and to finish in the Top 10. Notice there is only 1 American player on this list. In reality, i feel STRONGLY that the Americans struggle this week. Besides Tiger, the only Americans i expect much of are Phil Mickelson and Sean O’Hair. That’s it!

If you are looking for longshots, those are it! One other guy that doesn’t even have odds listed is THOMAS AIKEN. I’m interested to see how he does in Round 1, and to see if we can get him on the updated odds moving forward this week.