TopSportsBets.com Play Of The Day Thread
Play Of The Day Thread – Nada Wednesday 7/14
TSB Scott (Administrator) about 1 month ago | 11 responses    

Whats going on guys? Nice win for the NL backers. Cant wait for Thursday and to start making some money again. Hope everyone has a profitable 2nd half of the season.

Wake Up!!!!!!!!

Well deserved break – let refresh and ready for the 2nd half of the season and football is among us men!!

Got NCAA 11 for the PS3 yesterday so its time to whip some heads online lol!!!

Whats up Franchise. I am looking forward to preseason football! LOL. Few more weeks…

what’s up guys?

I know, not a damn thing today.

I’ll have my British Open Preview today, as well as our 2nd half baseball goals. I know, insert joke HERE!

Let’s go!

www.secondhalfsilktheshocker.com

Mike,

If you are around I had a question about the benefits and disadvantages of high volume betting. I am in a pretty intense argument regarding it. I have never seen a high volume bettor profit. Not saying it is impossible, just never seen it. Then this article was posted in the defense of the high volume guy. I’m not sure I am in agreement and just curious if you could throw some thoughts out or whatever.

Many people believe professional-level sports bettors win at least 60% of their bets. It’s understandable that people think that, but it’s just not true. The fact is, the difference between the percentage of bets won by successful sports bettors and the percentage of bets won by chronic losers is relatively very small.

We’ll ignore money line bets here for the sake of clarity, and address only those bets wherein the player must risk as much as 11 to win 10;point spreads and over/under bets. Against this type of bet, anyone at all can expect to win 50 percent. After all, the only thing required is to flip a coin and pick a side. The bookmakers’ profit comes from the difference between what a bettor must risk and what a bettor expects to win. Every time a player wins, the bookmaker withholds slightly more than 9 percent of the winnings ($1 for every $11 risked) . Consequently, a bettor winning only half his bets will ultimately go broke.

Professional sports bettors, by comparison, rarely sustain a long term winning percentage higher than 57 or 58 percent, and it’s often as low as 54 or 55 percent. People find that hard to believe, and they understandably get even more skeptical when told that, for a genuine professional-level sports bettor, a long term winning expectation of 60% or more is actually too high.

Too high of a win % ? Doesn’t make much sense. I have read this small piece over and over again. No big deal if you are not around to respond.

Thanks
Crotchy

no bro, i appreciate the question. And i’ll give you my honest takes, even if it hurts me in the long run. You are a good friend of mine.

As far as expectations go:

60% is attainable in certain sports, whatever the capper is most confident in. Quite simply, betting every sport i would say that 57% becomes the golf standard.

That 57% is sketchy though. There is a HUGE difference between a pro capper and a capper that sells picks. People believe they are the same, but i FIRMLY believe the capper selling picks is at a HUGE DISADVANTAGE. I feel i’ve been on both sides, to both extremes. There was a time in my life where i was counting on winning bets to LIVE and EAT. That’s tough. But that’s also the time where you scale back your wagers, and only play your BEST action. That might be as little as 3-5 plays a week. It just depends on the season and year.

Now, as a pro capper that also sells, the fact is your clients want as many plays as possible. They buy into a package, whether it be a week, a month, or a year. They want action. And i know some will say that they just want the “winning picks” We both know there is no such thing. Fact is, the vast majority want MORE action. That will never change. So with that being said, having multiple plays PER DAY makes it tough to get the best of the book.

For these types of pro’s, i would say 55% is getting it done.

95% of these types of cappers can’t attain a 49% win rate. I say this as my personal observations over the past 3 years of being in this EVERY SINGLE DAY.

As far as your question regarding volume. I think it’s twofold really. I know for me personally, i don’t believe in putting in a lot of volume. One guy that i respect the absolute most in this biz, believes in high volume. I’m fine with more volume, but that’s where i use my MMA, GOLF, and DRAFTS. So i think it’s important to tailor your volume to your strengths. Fact is, if you aren’t molding yourself after your strengths, you will be broke. Again, we both know that.

So i really don’t think there is a right or wrong answer. I think it’s a matter of preference and doing what is comfortable for you.

For me personally, i’m not out for high volume.

I appreciate that. I guess I am in the middle of the raod. My main goal is to stick to 4 plays. Some times I have 1, other times I have 8.

I have just been arguing about this with a guy that swears his 15 plays a day, especially with the juice in baseball, and hitting at a rate under 48% is better than someone who hits say 59% at a 4 play a day rate. I can see it from an over all money standpoint, but it still, to me makes you an inferior capper than someone hitting a larger % on a smaller number of plays.

I have been arguing with this guy for years, as have others, on good old CBS. I have actually grown to hate this guy because he is not understanding. No matter if you play 10 or 1000 games in a year, capping at a 48% clip still makes you a loser. And by capping at a 48% rate playing 15 games a day at a so called $1000 a play is just not finacially realistic, unless you are a millionaire. I have tracked him for almost 365 days and with the basic 110/100 math (even though it is supposedly $1000) I have him at a loss approching $500,000 and that is being kind with baseball juice as he rarely plays a dog and as we know most baseball is over -110 on favs. Yet he still claims, because he is high volume he is winning. I am not seeing what I am missing. I know it is a lie, but would love to call him out even worse.

And Mike I wasn’t posing the question to do any damage to you or anything. This is strictly for me to have more ammo to make this guys life hell.

He knows that Crotch. NO biggi at all. He loves those questions.

Look – Mike really tries to do it the “right” way. And it tends to piss other cappers off. Mike isn’t full of shit. He tells it like it is. Just like “flat” betting. That is ridiculous. To say that a capper never has a stronger lean on any particular event is lame. That is how we end up betting a TON on Tiger to shoot over 68 at the US Open a few weeks ago. Comical to think that play would be the same as a buried treasure play for 1 unit.

What makes this clown even more sepcial is that he claims to have a SIM. I havent even gotten into that one yet. He had to tweak it earlier because of all the hot weather, he felt the SIM would say play more unders cause players dont like hot weather. I seriously want to punch him.

I don’t believe him.

He’s either stupid or lying, and i believe nobody is that stupid…...