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Pick ‘n’ Roll: Today’s best NBA bets

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks (-1, 188)

Boston’s “Three Party” of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett has turned into an “over the hill” social hangover.

All three members of the Big Three are posting their lowest scoring totals since their rookie seasons and Rajon Rondo is the only player in a Celtic uniform pulling his weight these days.

The aging squad struggled to defeat the lowly Wizards on Sunday, trailing by 13 with six minutes left, which was only four games removed from an embarrassing 104-96 home loss to the Nets.

“We’ve lost so many of these where we played poorly and lost,” Doc Rivers said after the come-from-behind victory Sunday. “It was nice to play poorly and win. I just wish we could have played the first 40 minutes, like we played the last eight.”

That was about the umpteenth time Rivers has used the word “poorly” to describe his team this year. Rondo said a few weeks ago that there hasn’t been the same Celtic vibe and pride in the locker room as there has been in the last couple of seasons.

This is clearly not the same Boston squad that won the NBA championship two years ago and it has not been kind to bettors recently, going 11-18-1 ATS since the New Year.

And honestly, how can you bet against the Bucks at this point? Milwaukee has covered the spread in 10 straight and is 21-4 ATS in their last 25 games.

Pick: Bucks

Miami Heat at Charlotte Bobcats (-3, 185)

Dwyane Wade and the Heat will almost certainly score more than the 65 points they posted against the Bobcats on Jan. 20.

In that dismal affair, Miami shot less than 30 percent from the floor, only hit 2-of-23 three-point attempts and was a smidgen better than 60 percent from the charity stripe as a team.

So was it an off-night for the Heat or was Charlotte’s defense that good? Maybe a little bit of both.

Miami (96.3) and Charlotte (94.8) rank No. 26 and 28 in the Association in scoring, but are also in the Top 5 in scoring defense with both teams surrendering fewer than 96 points per outing.

The Bobcats have played to five consecutive unders where only one total was posted at higher than 194. Charlotte held opponents to 91.0 ppg during that stretch.

Prior to three straight overs, where the Heat played up-tempo teams like Golden State and Atlanta (also one OT game with L.A.), the under had cashed in 9-of-10 Miami contests.

Points will come at a premium in the Southeast showdown on Tuesday.

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SPORTS ADVISORS

TUESDAY, MARCH 9

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

BIG EAST TOURNAMENT

(at New York)

Providence (12-18, 10-15-1 ATS) vs. Seton Hall (18-11, 8-15 ATS)

These teams closed the regular-season against each other on Saturday, with Providence falling 92-80 as a one-point home underdog. The Friars enter the conference tournament at Madison Square Garden on a 10-game losing skid (3-6-1 ATS), and they’ve lost 12 of their last 13 since starting Big East play 3-2 SU and ATS. Providence’s defense has been nonexistent, giving up more than 90 points in three of the last four games and seven of the last 13. Furthermore, the Friars surrendered more than 80 points in 13 of 18 conference contests.
With Seton Hall’s win at Providence on Saturday, the Pirates are now on a 6-2 run, and they’ve followed up a 1-6 ATS slump with consecutive spread-covers (both on the road). Seton Hall has scored 83, 85 and 92 points in its last three games, and has tallied at least 76 points six times during its current 6-2 streak.
Seton Hall has won three of the last four in this rivalry both SU and ATS, and the winning team has scored 88, 98 and 92 points in the last three clashes. The Pirates are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head battles, the ‘dog has covered in seven of the last 10 and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last nine meetings.
Both teams are struggling at the betting window. Providence is in ATS slumps of 2-6-1 overall (all in the Big East and all against winning teams), 1-4 at neutral sites and 1-3-1 after a non-cover. The Pirates have failed to cover in 14 of 20 overall, 13 of 19 against Big East foes, 19 of 26 at neutral sites and eight of 10 after a SU victory. On the bright side, Seton Hall is 5-2 ATS both in its last seven Tuesday contests and its last seven versus losing teams.
The over is on runs of 4-1 for the Friars overall (all in the Big East), 5-1 for the Friars against winning teams, 4-1 for Seton Hall at neutral sites and 5-1 in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SETON HALL and OVER

Rutgers (15-16, 12-14 ATS) vs. Cincinnati (16-14, 7-18 ATS)

Rutgers has followed up a modest three-game winning streak (2-0 in Big East play) by dropping four of its last five, including Saturday’s ugly 83-54 loss at Pittsburgh, failing to cover as a 14½-point road underdog. The Scarlet Knights started Big East play with eight consecutive SU and ATS losses, then covered in seven of their next eight games (5-3 SU) and now have dropped two in a row SU and ATS.
After two narrow losses to eighth-ranked West Virginia (74-68 on the road) and ninth-ranked Villanova (77-73 at home), the Bearcats went to No. 19 Georgetown for Saturday’s regular-season finale and got boat-raced 74-47 as a seven-point road underdog. Cincinnati has lost seven of its last nine games and is 4-14 ATS since the Big East season kicked off.
One of the Bearcats’ four spread-covers in conference play came back on Jan. 2 at Rutgers, a 65-58 win as a five-point road favorite. Cincinnati 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings after the Scarlet Knights went 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in the first three clashes since the Big East expanded in 2005-06. The favorite has gotten the money in each of the last four meetings.
Rutgers has cashed in seven of 10 overall (all in conference) and five of six on Tuesday, but it is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral-site games, 3-9 ATS in its last 12 after a SU victory, 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 after a non-cover and 5-11 ATS in its last 16 against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Bearcats’ are in pointspread ruts of 7-22 overall (4-14 last 18), 6-20 in the Big East, 5-16 after a SU defeat, 4-13 after a non-cover, 1-4 against losing teams and 1-5 on Tuesday.
The over is 6-2 in Rutgers’ last eight games after a loss of more than 20 points and 4-0 in Cincy’s last four after a loss of more than 20 points, but the Bearcats are also on “under” stretches of 5-0 at neutral sites, 4-0 on Tuesday and 9-3 after a loss. Finally, this year’s meeting stayed under the total following a 3-0 “over” surge in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: RUTGERS

HORIZON LEAGUE TOURNAMENT

(at Indianapolis)

Wright State (20-11, 11-15-2 ATS) at (12) Butler (27-4, 12-19 ATS)

Wright State advanced to the Horizon League tournament championship game with Saturday’s 69-50 rout of Detroit as a 5½-point favorite at Hinkle Fieldhouse, which is Butler’s home court. The Raiders have alternated wins and losses in their last five games, but they’re 9-3 SU in their last 12 contests (all in the Horizon). On the downside, Wright State is just 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 outings, and it has posted consecutive spread-covers just once since starting the season 4-0 ATS.
Butler, shooting for its third consecutive Horizon League championship, has a 19-game winning streak on the line today, and it also sports a 19-0 record in conference. On Saturday, the Bulldogs hosted Wisconsin-Milwaukee in semifinal action and pulled away late for a 68-59 victory, falling short as a 14½-point favorite. Butler has turned up the heat defensively, holding six of its last seven opponents and 10 of the last 13 under 60 points.
The Bulldogs swept the season series from the Raiders, winning 77-65 as a 1½-point road underdog and 74-62 as an eight-point home chalk. Since losing three straight to Wright State – including the 2007 conference tournament championship game – Butler has won six in a row in this rivalry, going 4-1 ATS. The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings, the underdog is 6-3 ATS in the last nine and the SU winner is 9-2 ATS in the last 11.
Wright State has cashed in seven of eight on Tuesday, but from there the pointspread trends turn negative, including 1-11-1 on the road, 4-10-2 in conference, 1-4-1 after a SU win, 1-5 following a spread-cover, 3-8-2 against teams with a winning record and 2-10 against opponents with a winning percentage above .600. Butler is on ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 2-6 at home, 0-4 on Tuesday and 2-5 after a SU win.
The under is on runs of 8-2-1 for the Raiders on Tuesday, 4-0 for Butler overall and 5-1 for Butler in Horizon action. However, the over is 4-0 in Wright State’s last four against winning teams, 4-0 in Butler’s last four against winning teams, 6-2 in Butler’s last eight on Tuesday and 4-0 in the last four battles between these schools.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BUTLER and OVER

NBA

Boston (40-21, 24-36-1 ATS) at Milwaukee (33-29, 41-21 ATS)

Two squads going in the right direction clash at the Bradley Center, where the Celtics put a four-game winning streak on the line against the surging Bucks, who have won three in a row and nine of their last 10.
Boston needed a furious fourth-quarter rally to knock off the lowly Wizards 86-83 on Sunday, never threatening to cover as a 12-point home favorite to halt a three-game ATS surge. The Celtics have won four in a row and 11 of their last 16, but their 3-1 ATS uptick comes on the heels of an 11-25 ATS funk.
The Bucks started last week with a home-and-home sweep of the Wizards (100-87 victory as a 10-point home favorite; 102-74 as a four-point road chalk). Then they caught a break against Cleveland on Saturday, as LeBron James sat out with an injury and Milwaukee took advantage with a 92-85 victory over the Cavaliers as a 3½-point home favorite. The Bucks have cashed in 10 straight games (9-1 ATS) – going 4-0 SU and ATS at home – and they now have the best pointspread mark in the NBA.
Boston took out Milwaukee 98-89 in the only previous meeting this season, but the Bucks cashed as a 12½-point road underdog, their fourth straight spread-cover in this rivalry (all as an underdog). The Celtics are 7-1 SU in the last eight series clashes, but Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 (4-1 ATS at the Bradley Center).
The Celtics have cashed in four of their last five on the highway, but they’re otherwise in ATS ruts of 7-16-1 overall, 3-7 against Eastern Conference foes, 1-4 versus the Central Division, 3-8-1 against winning teams, 5-15-1 after one day off, 3-11-1 following a non-cover and 1-4 on Tuesday. Conversely, Milwaukee is on positive ATS runs of 44-21-1 going back to the end of last year, 4-0 at home, 22-6 in Eastern Conference games, 13-3 when facing the Atlantic Division, 4-1 when playing on two days of rest and 22-8 after a spread-cover.
Boston is on “under” runs of 6-2 on the road, 5-2 against the Central Division and 7-2 after a SU victory, while the Bucks sport “under” trends of 4-1 overall, 7-2 at home, 20-6 within the Eastern Conference, 10-4 after a SU win, 4-1 versus the Atlantic Division and 5-1 on Tuesday. Finally, the last two meetings between these squads have stayed below the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE and UNDER
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Brandon Lang 5* 564 Los Angeles Lakers
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DUNKEL INDEX

Miami at Charlotte
The Heat look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as an underdog. Miami is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3 1/2)

Game 551-552: Houston at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 117.299; Washington 115.543
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 1 1/2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 553-554: LA Clippers at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 112.089; Orlando 126.432
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 14 1/2; 201
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 555-556: Philadelphia at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 115.482; Indiana 118.206
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 2 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 209 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-1 1/2); Over

Game 557-558: Miami at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.705; Charlotte 115.883
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 3; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 3 1/2; 185
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3 1/2); Under

Game 559-560: Boston at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 118.537; Milwaukee 125.971
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 7 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1; 188
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-1); Over

Game 561-562: Utah at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 121.365; Chicago 118.758
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 2 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 3 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Over

Game 563-564: Sacramento at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 112.877; Portland 122.664
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 10; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 8; 198
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-8); Over

Game 565-566: Toronto at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.446; LA Lakers 128.657
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 18; 200
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

NCAAB

St. John’s vs. Connecticut
The Huskies look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in the last 6 meetings between the two teams. Connecticut is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Huskies favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-4)

Game 567-568: Pennsylvania at Princeton
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 45.584; Princeton 58.209
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Princeton by 13
Dunkel Pick: Pennsylvania (+13)

Game 569-570: DePaul vs. South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 55.893; South Florida 63.388
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: South Florida by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-6 1/2)

Game 571-572: St. John’s vs. Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: St. John’s 64.423; Connecticut 70.193
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 6
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 4
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-4)

Game 573-574: Providence vs. Seton Hall
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 60.270; Seton Hall 65.953
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 6
Dunkel Pick: Providence (+6)

Game 575-576: Rutgers vs. Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 56.186; Cincinnati 64.027
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7 1/2)

Game 577-578: Duquesne at St. Bonaventure
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 56.412; St. Bonaventure 60.743
Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (-1 1/2)

Game 579-580: St. Joseph’s at Rhode Island
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph’s 53.877; Rhode Island 61.427
Dunkel Line: Rhode Island by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Rhode Island by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph’s (+13 1/2)

Game 581-582: George Washington at Dayton
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 58.626; Dayton 67.803
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 9
Vegas Line: Dayton by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: George Washington (+11 1/2)

Game 583-584: Massachusetts at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 54.117; Charlotte 59.955
Dunkel Line: Charlotte by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Charlotte by 9
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (+9)

Game 585-586: North Texas vs. Troy
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 56.272; Troy 51.542
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 587-588: Wright State at Butler
Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 61.496; Butler 70.868
Dunkel Line: Butler by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Butler by 7
Dunkel Pick: Butler (-7)

Game 589-590: Montana vs. Northern Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 58.673; Northern Colorado 53.778
Dunkel Line: Montana by 5
Vegas Line: Montana by 1
Dunkel Pick: Montana (-1)

Game 591-592: Portland State at Weber State
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 53.601; Weber State 61.031
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Weber State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (+8)

Game 593-594: IUPUI vs. Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 59.969; Oakland 55.028
Dunkel Line: IUPUI by 5
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 595-596: Florida A&M vs. Bethune-Cookman
Dunkel Ratings: Florida A&M 37.351; Bethune-Cookman 40.057
Dunkel Line: Bethune-Cookman by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Bethune-Cookman by 5
Dunkel Pick: Florida A&M (+5)

Game 597-598: North Carolina A&T vs. Howard
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina A&T 41.345; Howard 31.936
Dunkel Line: North Carolina A&T by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina A&T by 7
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina A&T (-7)

NHL

Florida at Minnesota
The Wild look to take advantage of a Florida team that is 0-6 in its last 6 road games. Minnesota is the pick (-175) according to Dunkel, which has the Wild favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-175)

Game 51-52: Nashville at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 10.838; Atlanta 11.314
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-110); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-110); Under

Game 53-54: Calgary at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.306; Detroit 14.081
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-190); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-190); Over

Game 55-56: NY Islanders at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.664; Philadelphia 12.264
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-240); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-240); Over

Game 57-58: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 10.985; Toronto 11.476
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Under

Game 59-60: Tampa Bay at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.421; Montreal 11.074
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+120); Over

Game 61-62: Florida at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.793; Minnesota 12.966
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-175); Under

Game 63-64: Vancouver at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.849; Colorado 12.590
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-120); Over

Game 65-66: Ottawa at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.331; Edmonton 11.110
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 67-68: Columbus at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.453; Anaheim 11.706
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (190); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-190); Under
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Denver Money’s NHL 3/9 Early Thoughts

Nailed our 3* GOW last night as the Dallas / Washington game got over the 6.5, it wasn’t pretty, but we got the win and will take it. That was the only play I was able to put out last night as it was a short card. Today we have a full card and I am looking at games now and will be having another 2* play today. I am just trying to figure out which one to put up today. There are a few plays that I am really liking tonight. Here are my early leans:

Anahiem

Philadelphia -1.5

Boston/Toronto UNDER 5

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