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Mike’s 2/23 CBB THOUGHTS
TSB MIKE (Professional Handicapper) 5 months ago |

MIAMI -5.5 Virginia: This game is very important to Miami. Not only is it a home game, but it’s also a revenge angle as well. Miami was a team that started the season with some gaudy numbers. But was it because this team was good or just a weak strength of schedule? After all, their strength of schedule even now is only top 150 in the country. They’ve lost 8 of their past 10 games heading into tonight. So why then should they be favored by 5 or more points? Well, Virginia hasn’t been playing well either. As much as i like the new coaching regime, i think the Virginia players are simply tired. Trying to focus on defense as much as they have can be grueling for a full season. Virginia has lost 5 straight games. That looks bad, but one must realize that all 5 opponents are in the top 50 in the nation. I have conflicting situations here today, so i’m simply passing. For what it’s worth, i still have Miami as a top 72 team at home, while Virginia is top 115 on the road. I think this game will be close, so i see very little betting value here. NO THANKS.

GEORGETOWN +4 Louisville: It shows you how tough of a schedule this Hoyas team has played when they’ve lost 4 of their past 7 games and are still ranked right at the top 10 in the nation. They Hoyas have played one of the 4 toughest schedules in the country, and are 18-7 SU to show for it. Louisville is playing great basketball right now, and i see no reason they won’t continue that play at home tonight. It will be very interesting to see how the Hoyas react to consecutive SU defeats. I want to lean to the Hoyas here, as i simply don’t see them losing 3 straight games. But this game is “high” for a reason, and getting higher. No thanks.

PROVIDENCE +8.5 Syracuse: I hate fading Syracuse, so that alone makes me almost certain i won’t touch this game. Anyone should tell you this is a dangerous game for the Cuse tonight. That’s because they come off a 4 point SU win at Georgetown, and have VILLANOVA in their next game. This is a classic sandwich game, and the Cuse better be careful. This Providence team can play, and they can score in waves. I have Providence as a top 120 team at home this season, so they arent terrible. This is the 2nd to last home game for Providence as well. Keep in mind, Providence has played 4 of the top 10 teams in the country over their past 5 games. Based on the horrible spot Syracuse is in, and the fact Providence can score, a very very small lean to the home underdog here. Not going to be a play unless somthing drastic happens, but my slight lean.

SETON HALL -12 Rutgers: Time to start looking at the big picture. These teams have yet to face each other this season, yet play each other twice over their next three games. These 2 matchups mean everything to Seton Hall, as they need to win BOTH games in their efforts to make the Big Dance. I think this is part of the reason this line is so high. I have Seton Hall as a top 55 team at home, who have played a top 35 schedule this season. Seton Hall isn’t that hard to figure out, as they’ve beaten everyone they were supposed to, and lost to everyone else. Can they cover this spread is obviously the question at hand. I hate double digit favorites because the back door is so BIG. Rutgers can play, but typically at home. Rutgers had lost 9 in a row before winning 4 of their past 6 games coming into today. 3 of those wins were against Top 100 teams as well. Their 4th win was a ROAD LEAGUE win which is very rare for this team. WIll they take that motivation with them in their next game? Tough game here, and i’m staying away as i can see reasons to back both teams. Certainly i expect Seton Hall to win this game, but double digits is NEVER easy.

ILLINOIS +2.5 Michigan: I like Illinois here, and this IS a lean for me. Michigan is a 2 man show, and that’s it. When both Sims and Harris score 20 PTS in the same game, they are a perfect 7-0 this season. I think Illinois is playing good ball right now, and actually a little bit underrated. I rarely play Big 10 ball, but here’s a spot where i admit i have a solid lean. I have Illinois as a top 60 team on the road facing a Michigan team that’s only top 140 at home. Illinois has also played the far tougher schedule. Based on power rankings alone, this game favors Illinois. From a motivational perspective, Illinois is making sure they get into the Big Dance, so they know they need as many wins as possible. On national TV tonight, i see no way this team doesn’t put forth maximum effort. I like the way the Illinois bigs are starting to play, which is huge here. I think Michigan is simply too one dimensional, and i think Illinois wins this game OUTRIGHT.

GEORGIA ST. +9.5 Old Dominion: Here’s my 2nd lean of the day, as i like Georgia St. here. I think they are in a good spot at home today in their last home game of the season. This team has some leadership, so i believe they will fire a good performance tonight. Is the situational spot strong enough to eliminate the huge edge in talent and athleticism for ODU? That’s the major question regarding this game. ODU is coming off the 9 point loss to Northern Iowa in their Bracket Buster game, so they are likely to be angry today. The fact that they gave up 71 points likely means they will play shutdown D tonight. But don’t forget, ODU has a game against VCU, so what motivation does this ODU team have to win this game on the road by double digits? Georgia St. is off consecutive wins, against opponents NOT ranked in the top 200. Those wins are still important though, as it gives this team a bit more confidence to close out their season. This team plays tough, and has played better opponents close before. I like the way this line has been set up by oddsmakers. Points are going to be very hard to come by tonight, and if Georgia St. doesn’t get blown out on the boards, they can cover this game.

CREIGHTON +5 Southern Illinois: These teams are ranked practically right next to each other. Creighton has played the tougher schedule to date, but Southern Illinois is playing their final home game of the season. The Salukis also have a bit of revenge to deal with today, as they lost to Creighton by 2 points on Jan. 13th. I’m not going to beat around the bush here, as i think there is little betting value here. I think the Salukis have been overrated most of the season, but i can’t trust this Creighton team on the road. Simply no thanks.

EVANSVILLE +10 Northern Iowa: I’ll use this space to give Evansville their due credit for the way they play against Wichita St. Props to them, that’s for sure. Can they carry that over into a good final home game against league power Northern Iowa? Evansville has lost 4 league home games by double digits, so i worry about tonight’s game. However, one could argue this line is set TOO LOW actually. Northern Iowa won the first meeting by nearly 20 points, and Northern Iowa simply keeps winning. Tough game here, as i greatly respect what Northen Iowa has done this season. But i still think this opened too low to begin with.

TEXAS TECH +5.5 Kansas St.: This line is rising. Kansas St. has won 5 straight games, looking rather impressive in some of them. But all 5 opponents they played aren’t ranked in the Top 100 teams in the country. I love the way Kansas St. has played this season, but can they win this game by 6 or more points today? It’s not like Tech is a weak program, as i have them as a top 55 team at home. Tech has lost 3 straight games, all against top 25 competition. 2 of those games were very close, and this team needs to win those close games as they are trying to punch their ticket to the Big Show. Tech has lost 3 games at home this season, by a COMBINED total of 11 points. Clearly they will be motivated here as they don’t want to lose 4 straight games this close to March. They’ve proven they are tough at home, so a very, very slight lean to the home underdog.

FLORIDA -2.5 Tennessee: This is a coin flip game, and i think this line is set to reflect just that. Florida is the home team with revenge, so you know i do everything i can to find a way to back that very situation. But i just can’t do that, as i don’t fully trust this Gators team. They’ve played well of late with their backs against the wall. Part of their success has been their great FT shooting of late. But again, it all goes back to this line. This line is so low, it makes me feel like it’s too easy to back the Gators. Tennessee certainly has the better overall power numbers coming into tonight. Tennessee has been decent away from home, and bounced back from back to back league road losses to beat South Carolina. Tennessee has Kentucky next up, so clearly a couple of tough games for them. Again, it all goes back to the way this line was originally set by oddsmakers. Tough for me to have a strong feeling here, despite the original lean to Florida.

HOFSTRA +11 Northeastern: What the heck happened to Northeastern in their BracketBuster game? They certainly can’t be happy with their performance, and will be looking to get their frustrations out today. However, any chance Northeastern had of making the Big Dance as an at large team is out of the question now. How will Northeastern respond to that? This line is inflated in my opinion. Hofstra is simply playing too good to be a double digit underdog to ANY team in their conference. Hofstra has won 7 of their past 8 games, including a nice 3 point win against Rider in their last game. This team is playing with confidence right now, as any team that’s won 7 of 8 would. Tough game here, as i respect the experience of Northeastern and the fact they are coming off a bad loss and now playing their final home game of the regular season. I’m waffling here, so staying away completely.

COLORADO ST. +7.5 New Mexico: I talked about this game on the TiSB podcast, so go check it out there for my thoughts on this game!