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NCAAF DUNKEL INDEX

FRIDAY, JANUARY 1

Game 241-242: Northwestern vs. Auburn
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 85.662; Auburn 94.781
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 9; 48
Vegas Line: Auburn by 7; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-7); Under

Game 243-244: Florida State vs. West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 90.350; West Virginia 95.197
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 5; 55
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 2 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-2 1/2); Under

Game 245-246: LSU vs. Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 101.843; Penn State 101.701
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: Penn State by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: LSU (+3); Under

Game 247-248: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 104.600; Oregon 111.960
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 7 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Oregon by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-3 1/2); Over

Game 249-250: Cincinnati vs. Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 100.018; Florida 110.596
Dunkel Line: Florida by 10 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Florida by 12 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+12 1/2); Over
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By Shea Matthews of OffshoreInsiders.com

Time to shake off the turkey hangover and hit the SportsBook. There’s no time to waste, as the BCS bowl games rapidly approach! We’ll start our week’s worth of picks with the Rose Bowl.
Rose Bowl

(7) Oregon vs (8) Ohio State
Friday, January 1, 2010, 5:00 p.m. ET
College football odds favorite: Oregon -4

USC not in a BCS bowl? Ohio State not even sniffing the national title discussion? Things sure have changed over the last couple of seasons. Though the Buckeyes can be reasonably happy to reach the Rose Bowl, 2009 doesn’t necessarily qualify as a success for Jim Tressel’s boys. Ohio State played championship-caliber defense this year, ranking fifth in the nation in (fewest) yards allowed. Cameron Heyward and Thaddeus Gibson highlight a front seven that many sports betting pundits feel is Ohio State’s best in a long time.
However, the Buckeyes’ sub-par offense held them back time and again this season. There’s still time for Terrelle Pryor to pull it all together but the sophomore pivot arguably regressed this season. He ran for 700 yards – his feet are just fine – but passing was another story. He threw 10 picks after throwing just four as a freshman.
The Oregon Ducks, on the other hand, are scoring machines. They ranked seventh in the country with 37.7 points per game this season. These guys run wild with the football. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli is among the nation’s most dynamic offensive players. He ran for 12 touchdowns and threw for 15 more this season. He has a great complementary player in running back LaMichael James, who ran for 1,476 yards and scored 14 times. James topped 150 rushing yards in six different games and was the driving force behind Oregon’s No. 6 rushing offense.
Oregon leaves plenty to be desired on defense but the Buckeyes’ offense doesn’t scare anyone. It doesn’t take a genius to know that the Rose Bowl therefore comes down to whether or not the Buckeyes’ “D” can hold. I don’t think it can. Oregon ran wild on some solid defenses this year; it churned out a whopping 391 yards in its huge statement victory over USC. Ohio State won’t make it easy but the Buckeyes won’t score enough to keep pace with the high-octane Ducks. Pick Oregon.
Free pick: Oregon 4
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AL DEMARCO’S NEW YEAR’S DAY WINNER

Ohio State vs. Oregon

10 Dime Release

Oregon
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DCI

Friday, January 1, 2010

Outback Bowl
at Tampa, FL
Northwestern vs. Auburn: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Capital One Bowl
at Orlando, FL
Penn State 20, LSU 19

Gator Bowl
at Jacksonville, FL
West Virginia 30, Florida State 22

Rose Bowl
at Pasadena, CA
Oregon 29, Ohio State 28

Sugar Bowl
at New Orleans, LA
Florida 33, Cincinnati 25
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SPORTS INSIGHTS

Sports Marketwatch – Bowl Edition IV

Recapping Bowl Edition III

Everyone knew about the contrasting offensive styles in our last match-up, with Air Force’s triple option attack going up against Houston’s multi-receiver spread sets and aerial approach. The crucial unit, though, turned out to be Air Force’s pass defense. They intercepted Case Keenum a whopping six times and held him to a season-low 222 yards passing. The Falcons also executed offensively, as both Asher Clark and Jared Tew ran for 100+ yards and two touchdowns en route to a 47-20 victory over the Cougars.

Regular Season Record = 25-18-1 (58.1%)
Bowl Record = 3-1 (75%)

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch

LSU vs. Penn State (1/1 – 1:00 pm EST)

After starting the season with five straight wins, LSU struggled against the top teams in the SEC, losing close games to Florida, Alabama and Mississippi. Like LSU, Penn State feasted on its weaker conference opponents this season, but did not have enough firepower to compete with Iowa and Ohio State for the Big 10 title.

Penn State opened as a 2.5-point favorite at CRIS and the public is heavily behind LSU. Sixty-five percent of spread bets are on the Tigers, which shrank the line to -2 early on at many sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights. Four positive Smart Money plays have been triggered on the Nittany Lions, including one each at ABC (+9.24 units) and Cata/VegasVic (+20.26 units). With no recognizable Steam on Penn State to push their line back up, the consistent pounding of public support on LSU has just dropped the line to a pick at many books, including Grande, betus, Jamaica and bodog. Go out and grab this value on a public dog with lots of sharp money behind it.

Penn State -110

Northern Illinois vs. South Florida (1/2 – 12:00 pm EST)

Northern Illinois finished their season on a sour note, losing their final two games against Ohio and Central Michigan, the top two teams in the MAC. After a hot start, South Florida also struggled down the stretch, dropping five of their final seven games.

South Florida opened as a 4-point favorite at CRIS and public betting has pushed the line to -7. The Bulls are currently receiving 73% of spread bets, yet SportsInsights’ Betting Systems have found value on the Huskies, triggering four positive Smart Money plays on Northern Illinois. Like our first game, two of these moves are from ABC (+9.24 units) and Cata/VegasVic (+20.26 units), giving us the confidence to go against the public percentages and take the Huskies +7.

Northern Illinois +7

Mississippi vs. Oklahoma State (1/2 – 2:00 pm EST)

Coming off big wins against Tennessee and LSU, Mississippi was flat in their final game of the regular season, losing 41-27 to in-state rival Mississippi State. In the 2009 edition of the Oklahoma Bedlam Football Game, the Cowboys got thoroughly dominated by the Sooners, mustering a measley 109 yards of total offense in the 27-0 loss.

Mississippi opened as a 3.5-point favorite at CRIS and are currently receiving 67% of spread bets. Sharp money has jumped all of this game, triggering six positive Smart Money plays on Oklahoma State, including moves from, yes, you guessed it, ABC (+9.24 units) and Cata/Vegas Vic (+20.26 units). The Rebels are a 3-point favorite at most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights, but Mississippi is giving an extra half-point at Carib, moving the spread off the key number of three. We like the Cowboys and are grabbing the three and a half while it’s still out there.

Oklahoma State +3.5 (Carib)

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch.

Games to Watch (26-19-1)
Penn State 110
Northern Illinois +7
Oklahoma State +3.5 (Carib)
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INSIDER ANGLES (3-0 run)
FRIDAY JANUARY 1, 2010 BOWL PICK

The significance of this Gator Bowl contest between the Florida State Seminoles and the West Virginia Mountaineers is that it marks the final game for Bobby Bowden as head coach of the Seminoles, and emotions will be riding high with this game being played in Florida.

In fact, the Gator Bowl has set aside over 300 tickets to be distributed among former Florida State players, setting up a huge tribute the 80-year-old Bowden, who is the second winningest coach in FBS College Football history.

It is with this backdrop that the 6-6 Seminoles will try to upset the 16th ranked 9-3 Mountaineers. That said, this is not an impossible task. Florida State does have a potent offense, averaging 29.8 points and 421.7 yards per game. They have a very balanced attack, averaging 4.6 yards per rush and an excellent 8.1 yards per pass attempt. The Noles can take advantage of a West Virginia defense that has not played as well away from home, allowing 339.6 yards per road contest.

While the Florida State contest has been clicking, the 24 points the Mountaineers scored in their season finale vs. Rutgers was their highest point output in their last five games. They would have a tough time coming from behind here should the Seminoles jump out to a quick lead, and that seems like a very good possibility given their emotional edge.

Finally, the task for the Mounties will not be made any easier by the fact that this is practically a road game, and they were just 2-3 on the road during the regular season.

Look for Florida State to ride their emotional wave to an upset here, sending the beloved Bowden off in style.

NEW YEARS DAY BOWL PICKk: Florida State +2.5
— – --BANG THE BOOK – WON 3 IN A ROW
8-11 Bowl Record
Outback Bowl Opening Odds: Auburn -8 Total 54.5

New Year’s Day is upon us and this always marks the day when some really big bowl games start with big conferences and big teams facing off against one another for bragging rights and a bowl win.

This year the Outback Bowl will get the Northwestern Wildcats out of the Big Ten squaring off against the Auburn Tigers out of the powerful SEC.

Auburn plays in a very tough conference and its no surprise that they struggled mightily this year as they are just not skilled enough to compete with the elite in the SEC and this year the SEC was stacked with talent with such great teams to include Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU just to name a few.

Northwestern had a tough conference in the Big 10 but they also had inconsistent play that plagued them for most of the season. They were inconsistent at times and would lose to mediocre teams and beat powerhouses. The passing attack was the strength of this team and they thrived as underdogs.

The Wildcats are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and Auburn has a myriad of trends that will oppose them in this game. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Auburn will not be able to stop the passing attack and slow down Northwestern.

Outback Bowl Pick: Northwestern +7.5
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BANG THE BOOK
Gator Bowl Opening Odds: West Virginia-3 Total 60

When the Gator bowl kicks off this year it will be a very special bowl for the coach of the Florida St Seminoles. Bobby Bowden will coach his last game as a member of the Florida St. Seminoles and ironically he will face the team where it all started when they take the field, West Virginia.

West Virginia is off a good year but they fell short against some teams and it cost them in the end. They finished with wins against Pittsburgh and Rutgers and that was good enough for third place in the Big East and a spot in the Gator bowl. On the year they cost sports bettors with a subpar record against the number, but they were not as much of a disappoint as the Seminoles were.

The Seminoles started the season with ACC title hopes on the line and by the time the end of the season rolled around they were happy to be bowl eligible. The defense was torn apart and the end of the line for Bobby Bowden was here as he is being ushered out of the coaching spot although he wanted to stay for one more year.

For as bad as the ‘Noles played all it would take is this win to make everything alright on the year. They need to win one for the coach and they have all the tools to do it. They are playing this bowl game in Jacksonville and fans will come out to say farewell to one of the greatest coaches of the game. The Seminoles are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games, 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog. The Mountaineers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 vs. ACC and are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS win. Bobby Bowden will get his team fired up and go out on a winning note!

Gator Bowl Pick: Florida St. +2.5
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BANG THE BOOK
Capital One Bowl Opening Odds: Penn State -2.5 Total 44

The big teams and the big matchup begin on the first of January and this is a big one as the LSU Tigers square off against the Nittany Lions of Penn St.These teams had identical seasons as both hoped for god things but just ended up losing to the elite of the conference.

For Penn St. the big hurdle was Iowa early in the season and then Ohio St sealed their fate and cost them the Big Ten Title. Joe Pa fielded a good team but at times became too predictable and one dimensional. They did not show up in the big games and this bowl is a good fit for them.

For LSU the schedule did not help them this year. Any team that plays both Florida and Alabama is certainly in for a long year and a couple of losses. To make matters worse the Tigers had a tip to Ole Miss on the schedule and ended up losing that game as well.

Neither of these teams impressed against the number this year and when looking at the numbers, Penn St has a slight edge on the defense. However this was against the Big Ten and the SEC is much better and the caliber of teams that LSU played will prepare them for this game. Jefferson is poised and the experience this year will help him lead LSU to a bowl victory. The Tigers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as an underdog. The Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and will come up short in this contest.

Capital One Bowl Pick: LSU +2.5
— – —-BANG THE BOOK
Sugar Bowl Opening Odds: Florida -10 Total 55.5

The Sugar Bowl has two great teams heading to New Orleans this week and one thing can be counted on. The offenses are going to light up the scoreboard. These two teams have been able to put up points at will this year and have not concerned themselves with defense.

The Florida Gators were one game away from playing in the Championship before losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship game. They will still be able to get ready in time for this game as Urban Meyer knows how to motivate his troops and this will be Tim Tebow’s last game.

Cincinnati has won the Big East and will look to run the table and remain undefeated by winning the Sugar Bowl but they will have to do it without their head coach Brian Kellly. Kelly left for Notre Dame and left this football team without their leader. The seniors claim they will show the world they are okay without him and with Tony Pike leading the offense they will score points.

The difference between these teams is defense. The Bearcats will not be able to stop the Gators on offense. The Gators will show the Bearcats a speedy defense they have not seen this year. The Bearcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. The Gators are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Tim Tebow will make sure he goes out a winner and the Bearcats will get blown out in the Sugar Bowl.

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BANG THE BOOK

Rose Bowl Opening Odds: Oregon -3.5 Total 51

Finally it’s time for the Grand Daddy of them all, the Rose Bowl! Every year the Big Ten Champion and the Pac-10 Champion meet in the Rose Bowl to duke it out to own the title of the Rose Bowl Champion! This year is one of the better bowl games of the year as the Ducks face off against Oregon.

Oregon started off the year with a negative losing at Boise St. and RB Blount throwing the punch that was heard around the world. The players and coaching staff deserve credit for coming back to steady the ship and winning the Pac-10 with big wins over Arizona, USC, and Oregon St.

Ohio St. finished on top of the Big Ten which is familiar territory for this team. They held off strong runs by Iowa and Penn St and emerged victorious but the questions swirling the “big game” still haunt the Buckeyes. They seem to lose all the big games out of conference and they have a very big challenge in the Ducks.

Oregon is strong offensively but if Ohio St. has strength it is on defense. Pryor needs to manage the game on the offensive side of the ball and the Buckeyes will win a big bowl game. They have been good to bettors over the years. The Buckeyes are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games overall and 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games on grass. They have a surprisingly good record in bowl games against the number. The Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as an underdog. Jim Tressel and the Buckeyes get trounced by the Ducks and lose the Rose Bowl!

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75 DIME - FLORIDA GATORS - The more I looked at this game the more I realized the Gators were the right side of this game.

Let’s us start with the fact this line is -13 (as I post this analysis). Who does that tell you Vegas is begging you to bet? Exactly, Cincinnati.

Next, the Bearcats shouldn’t be here. Pitt should be, and the determining factor for me is the fact the Gators are going to be able to do anything they want offensively.

Urban Meyer and his announcement has got to inspire this Gator team and I believe it will.

Tim Tebow playing his last game and you had better believe he will go out a winner.

The Gators defensive coordinator Strong will coach his last game here before departing for Louisville and with his entire defense back from last year, this may be their best game.

The Bearcats haven’t seen this type of pressure from a front 7 all year long and when your offensive line is going to get overwhelmed to the level they are, long day for Tony Pike.

He didn’t look all that good against Pitt and trust me, the pressure he sees here is the most he will have seen all year.

Just look at Cincy down the stretch.

They struggled to beat Uconn at home 47-45, how about West Virginia at home 24-21 followed by a 13 point win over Illinois and then finally Pitt 45-44.

I want you to think about this for one moment. The UConn Huskies came into your house and put up 45 points on you. That was UConn! I’m talking about a motivated Florida team here.

A few years ago Hawaii played Georgia in the Sugar bowl with Colt Brennan and his high scoring offense, and Hawaii got blown out because Brennan had no time to throw.

Guess what, the same will be said about Pike when this game has come and gone.

Gators will win this game by 17 points or more.

25 DIME – NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS – Way too many points here.

I respect Auburn and what they have done this year, and the improvements they have made – but covering this number is a too much for them to bite off.

As impressive as Wisconsin was against Miami-Florida, and to know this Northwestern team beat them at home tells me a lot about the Wildcats.

This is a team that played their best ball down the stretch with a 17-10 win at Iowa, a 21-16 win at Illinois, and a 33-31 win over the Badgers.

The Tigers come in off the near-miss win over Alabama, and now look for bowl success and they might have a bit more speed but this is a live dog here.

In the last 2 years Northwestern has been a dog 13 times and they got the money in 10 of those 13 games, with 8 outright upsets.

That is good enough for me as the Wildcats get the job done here and cover the number.

25 DIME – FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES – Going to war with the Seminoles.

First and foremost, just not a believer in West Virginia nor anything they did all year long.

They come into this game here averaging just under 21 points over their last 5 games and the fact of the matter is I just don’t trust Brown at QB for the Mountaineers.

Away from home this WVU team was just 1-3 ATS, and with all the hype surrounding this being Bowden’s last game, I will go to war with that hype here.

The Seminoles come in here off a loss to the Gators and if you thought that leaves them in a letdown situation, think again, as Florida State is 10-1 SU and ATS after losing to Florida.

Lastly add the fact the ACC is a rock solid 13-3 ATS versus the Big East and for my buck, it’s about Florida State this afternoon.

Been a great run Bobby, take your lap around the winners circle and enjoy being retired.

25 DIME – OHIO STATE BUCKEYES – I will roll the dice with Jim Tressel as a dog anytime anywhere.

The Buckeyes excel in the underdog role, going 4-1 ATS last 5 times getting points winning 3 of those games outright.

It has been a great run for Oregon through the Pac-10, but the fact of the matter is they haven’t seen a defense like the one they see today.

There isn’t a single ounce of doubt in my mind this Ohio State team is the better all around team and it’s not like they haven’t seen the spread, as they run a variation of it.

The key is the Buckeyes defense and the intensity in which they will play, and I will gladly back this live dog today against the Pac-10.

I’ve always said Tressel as an underdog is a heckuva football coach, and I expect him to once again deliver as a dog.

Get on the Buckeyes today.

FREE SELECTION – LSU TIGERS