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NCAAF TRENDS 12/5
jizzle24 (GOLD MEMBER) 9 months ago | 9 responses    

Saturday, December 5

HOUSTON vs. EAST CAROLINA
Houston is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
East Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
East Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

WEST VIRGINIA vs. RUTGERS
West Virginia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
West Virginia is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Rutgers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against West Virginia
Rutgers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing West Virginia

CINCINNATI vs. PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games at home

FRESNO STATE vs. ILLINOIS
Fresno State is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Fresno State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Illinois is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
Illinois is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

SAN JOSE STATE vs. LOUISIANA TECH
San Jose State is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Jose State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Louisiana Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Jose State
Louisiana Tech is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Jose State

NEW MEXICO STATE vs. BOISE STATE
New Mexico State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Boise State
New Mexico State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boise State
Boise State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

ARIZONA vs. SOUTHERN CAL
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Southern Cal is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona

FLORIDA vs. ALABAMA
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Florida’s last 10 games
Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Florida
Alabama is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

CALIFORNIA vs. WASHINGTON
California is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
California is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against California
Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing California

FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Florida Atlantic is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida Atlantic is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Florida International is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Florida Atlantic
Florida International is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

GEORGIA TECH vs. CLEMSON
Georgia Tech is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Georgia Tech is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Clemson is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Georgia Tech
Clemson is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Georgia Tech

TEXAS vs. NEBRASKA
Texas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Nebraska is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Texas
Nebraska is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

SOUTH FLORIDA vs. CONNECTICUT
South Florida is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
South Florida is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Connecticut is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing South Florida
Connecticut is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home

WISCONSIN vs. HAWAII
Wisconsin is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Wisconsin is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
Hawaii is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games at home
Hawaii is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Saturday, 12/5/2009

S FLORIDA at CONNECTICUT
S FLORIDA: 5-1 Over vs. conference
CONNECTICUT: 9-1 ATS this season

W VIRGINIA at RUTGERS
W VIRGINIA: 3-10 ATS off ATS win
RUTGERS: 17-7 ATS off an Over

FRESNO ST at ILLINOIS
FRESNO ST: 5-1 ATS in road games
ILLINOIS: 8-19 ATS at home in non-conference games

SAN JOSE ST at LOUISIANA TECH
SAN JOSE ST: 0-7 ATS vs. conference
LOUISIANA TECH: 6-0 ATS off conference loss

NEW MEXICO ST at BOISE ST
NEW MEXICO ST: 2-10 ATS off loss by 3pts or less
BOISE ST: 46-19 ATS in home games

ARIZONA at USC
ARIZONA: 46-24 Under off BB conference games
USC: 16-6 ATS at home off cover as DD favorite

CALIFORNIA at WASHINGTON
CALIFORNIA: 0-6 ATS off road win
WASHINGTON: 1-11 ATS off home win by 28+ points

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH
CINCINNATI: 6-1 ATS as an underdog
PITTSBURGH: 38-61 ATS off SU loss

WISCONSIN at HAWAII
WISCONSIN:
HAWAII: 1-5 ATS off BB ATS wins

Added Game

FLA ATLANTIC at FLA INTERNATIONAL
FLA ATLANTIC: 5-1 Over in road games
FLA INTERNATIONAL: 7-0 ATS at home after allowing 42+ points

Conference USA Championship Game

HOUSTON at E CAROLINA
HOUSTON: 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
E CAROLINA: 8-2 Under off 2 straight conference wins

SEC Championship Game – Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA

FLORIDA vs. ALABAMA
FLORIDA: 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
ALABAMA: 9-2 Under off 6+ SU wins

ACC Championship Game – Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL

GEORGIA TECH vs. CLEMSON
GEORGIA TECH: 5-1 Over off BB Unders
CLEMSON: 45-27 ATS as an underdog

Big 12 Championship Game – Cowboys Stadium – Arlington, TX

TEXAS vs. NEBRASKA
TEXAS: 31-13 ATS off road conference win
NEBRASKA: 5-1 Under vs. Texas

Conference Title Notebook
By The Gold Sheet

It’s a big week in the relatively short existence of conference title games. Which, historically speaking, are a rather new addition to the college football calendar. Indeed, prior to 1992, they didn’t exist at all. And this Saturday’s Florida-Alabama SEC title contest is definitely the most significant collision in conference title game annals; it’s the first time two unbeatens have run into one another in one of these special league championship games.

It was the SEC that got the conference championship ball rolling in the first place, breaking rank with the rest of the college football world (which often moves with glacial-like speed in regard to change) and introducing what was a revolutionary concept 17 years ago, taking advantage of a loophole in NCAA bylaws that permitted conferences with 12 teams or more (of which the SEC was the first) to conduct league championship games. The rest of the college football world watched the 1992 SEC “experiment” closely, and its subsequent success served as the impetus for many of the changes we’ve seen in the college landscape since. It’s a fact that the commercial success of the SEC title game was the main trigger in the creation of expanded “mega-conferences” (such as the Big XII and ACC) and certainly blazed a trail for other leagues to conduct their own championship extravaganzas. Now, for the fifth straight year, five conference title games will be contested.

And, despite some empty seats at recent ACC title games (the Florida locale hasn’t helped lure extra fans from far-flung BC and Virginia Tech the past two years; Tampa organizers are much more exited about the prospects of closer-by Clemson and its numerous supporters making the shorter drive for the 2009 renewal on Saturday), for the most part conference title games have been business successes, especially in the SEC and Big XII. With the absence of a true national playoff, they have become important sources of revenues for the leagues. And more might be on the way. Although it has yet to join the party, the Big Ten is said to be kicking around expansion to twelve teams and the conference title game idea more than usual. None other than ol’ “Shades” himself, Penn State coach Joe Paterno, believes the top Big Ten teams are at a competitive disadvantage at bowl time because the lack of a conference title game means its best teams will often finish their regular seasons as much as two weeks earlier than leagues that conduct title games. Joe, we don’t think that was the reason Ohio State was blasted in BCS title games after ‘06 and ‘07, but your point is well taken. And Paterno has hopped aboard the bandwagon for Big Ten expansion, going as far to suggest that Rutgers (and its close proximity to the New York media market) would be the perfect twelfth member of the league and thus make a conference title game a reality. Sources also say the Big East would seriously consider adding a separate championship game if the league could somehow increase its football membership without adding to its bloated, 16-team basketball conference (let’s not give Villanova any ideas about giving top division football another try).

Of course, the major domino that always could fall remains Notre Dame, and there is said to be a growing element within its Board of Trustees that is tinkering with the idea of joining a conference, more serious than a few years ago when it was rumored that the Irish were thinking about a hookup with the Big Ten. Some South Bend sources suggest that as more old-line Domers begin to lose influence, the “newer blood” on the Board might look more favorably upon a change, with the Big Ten remaining the “future book” favorite to land the Irish. And if and when Notre Dame ever joins a conference, rest assured a conference title game would be one of the byproducts. By us, we wish the Big East, in which Notre Dame participates in all sports save football, would tell the Irish to fish or cut bait, and join up for all sports or leave altogether. Although that’s about as likely as Sean Hannity becoming best pals with Keith Olbermann.

Handicapping-wise, we’re now at the point where we’ve had enough of a sampling of league championship games to identify some trends. Much like bowl games, double-digit conference title game underdogs have offered decent value, covering in 12 of 19 chances. In recent years, however, these league championship games have tilted to the chalk, with favorites 11-4 vs. the line since 2006, and 14-6 since ‘05.

Mostly, however, there have been some interesting conference-specific pointspread and “totals”-related trends that merit some extra attention. The most noteworthy of those are highlighted in the following league-by-league title game histories. Included are results since 2003.

SEC…Seventeen games since 1992, with favorites 14-3 straight up, but only 8-9 vs. the pointspread. The first two (1992 & ‘93) were held at Birmingham’s Legion Field; since ‘94, all have been played at Atlanta’s Georgia Dome. If Florida and Alabama seem like they’ve done this before, well, it’s because they have. Indeed, this will be the seventh SEC title game (and second in a row) featuring the Gators and Crimson Tide, with Florida winning and covering 4 of the previous 6. Four of the first five SEC championship games also featured the Gators and Bama between 1992-95. The last straight-up underdog winner was Georgia in 2005, when beating LSU 34-14 as a 11/2-point dog. 2008-Florida (-10) 31 – Alabama 20 (“under” 521/2); 2007-LSU (-71/2) 21 – Tennessee 14 (“under” 60); 2006-Florida (-21/2) 38 – Arkansas 28 (“over” 441/2); 2005-Georgia (+ 11/2) 34 – LSU 14 (“over” 401/2); 2004-Auburn (-141/2) 38 – Tennessee 28 (“over” 471/2); 2003-LSU (-3) 34 – Georgia 13 (“over” 42).

BIG XII…Thirteen games since 1996, with favorites winning and covering nine of those. First game held at St. Louis’ Edward Jones Dome (1996), then next four at San Antonio’s Alamodome (1997-2000), which also hosted the 2007 game. The 2001 renewal was at Texas Stadium, Irving; 2002 & 2005 at Houston’s Reliant Stadium; 2003, ‘04, ‘06, and ‘08 at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. This year at Jerry Jones’ new Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. In its early years, the Big XII title game was renowned for its upsets; both Nebraska (vs. Texas in the first title game back in 1996) and Kansas State (vs. Texas A&M in 1998) blew chances at Bowl Alliance/BCS title games when shocked as double-digit favorites, respectively, in the conference championship game. Kansas State returned the upset favor in ‘03 when it blasted 14-point favorite Oklahoma, although the Sooners still qualified for that year’s BCS title game. But recent years have been noted for their blowouts, with six of the last seven (including that K-State romp on ‘03) decided by 21 or more, and the other (Oklahoma over Nebraska in 2006) decided by 14. Favorites have now won and covered five straight since that Kansas State upset over the Sooners in ‘03. 2008-Oklahoma (-161/2) 62 – Missouri 21 (“over” 79); 2007-Oklahoma (-3) 38 – Missouri 17 (“under” 65); 2006-Oklahoma (-31/2) 21 – Nebraska 7 (“under” 451/2); 2005-Texas (-261/2) 70 – Colorado 3 (“over” 601/2); 2004-Oklahoma (-22) 42 – Colorado 3 (“under” 541/2); 2003-Kansas State (+14) 35 – Oklahoma 7 (“under” 54).

MAC…Twelve games since 1997, with favorites 7-5 straight up and 6-6 vs. the pointspread. Prior to 2004 (when the game was moved indoors to Detroit’s Ford Field), MAC championships had been contested at campus sites. Marshall participated in the first five MAC championship battles (Randy Moss played in the first one!), winning four of them. 2008-Buffalo (+151/2) 42 – Ball State 24 (“over” 63); 2007-Central Michigan (-3) 35 – Miami Ohio 10 (“under” 631/2); 2006-Central Michigan (-31/2) 31 – Ohio 10 (“under’ 451/2); 2005-Akron (+13) 31 – Northern Illinois 30 (“over” 52); 2004-Toledo (+11/2) 35 – Miami-Ohio 27 (“under” 64); 2003 – Miami-Ohio (-7) 49 – Bowling Green 27 (“over” 581/2).

ACC… Four games since 2005, with favorites 2-2 straight up and vs. the pointspread. First three games held at Jacksonville’s Municipal Stadium; 2008 and this season at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa. 2008-Virginia Tech(+11/2) 30 – Boston College 12 (“over” 43); 2007-Virginia Tech (-41/2) 30 – Boston College 16 (“under” 47); 2006-Wake Forest (-2) 9 – Georgia Tech 6 (“under” 40); 2005-Florida State (+14) 27 – Virginia Tech 22 (“over” 441/2).

CONFERENCE USA…Like the ACC, began in 2005, with four games since; favorites 3-1 straight up and vs. the pointspread. C-USA title games have been held at campus sites, with the home team noted by an . 2008-East Carolina (+121/2) 27 – Tulsa 24 (“under” 651/2); 2007-UCF* (-71/2) 44 – Tulsa 27 (“under” 74); 2006-Houston* (-5) 34 – Southern Miss 20(“over” 531/2); 2005-Tulsa (-2) 44 – UCF* 27 (“over” 561/2).

WAC…Three title games at Las Vegas’ Sam Boyd Stadium between 1996-98, with favorites winning all three, and covering two

Conference Championship Games Betting History
By Doug Upstone

The Southeastern Conference was the innovator of the Conference Championship game back in 1992 and when you think about, this has helped propel them to being arguably the best conference in college football year in, year out. The leaders of the SEC knew their customer was a football starved fan and would relish the opportunity for one more game to decide the leagues title. Most years this has provided additional excitement by splitting the conference into two divisions, giving more schools an opportunity to compete in this confrontation.

Alabama and Florida met in the first three games between these schools in this instant classic. In the first game, unbeaten Alabama came in ranked number two in the country and was a solid 10-point favorite over a Florida team that had lost three times, coached by Steve Spurrier, who had just started things rolling at his alma mater. With this being such a new venture, the SEC settled on Legion Field in Birmingham, the Crimson Tides home away from home. This guaranteed a sellout and the game was played there the first two years.

Alabama had allowed only eight points a game with its stifling defense, but a cocksure Spurrier had his team well prepared and with nothing to lose, took the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The Tides defense had trouble all game long with the Gators, allowing 347 yards, after surrendering only a 183 yards per game all year. Alabama hung on to win 28-21 over Florida. This year will be the sixth matchup between these teams in this contest, with Florida 3-2 SU and ATS. The Gators are 3-1 ATS when favored.

This will be the fifth appearance for each Nebraska and Texas in the Big 12 championship with the Cornhuskers 3-1 ATS and the Longhorns just the opposite at 1-3 ATS. This will be their third get-together in this battle.

Do you think Marshall ever wonders about leaving the MAC? They played in the first six championship games (won five) and havent been heard from since, moving on to Conference USA. Central Michigan looks to move into second place for MAC titles (seeking third) behind the Thundering Herd with a win this season, since this contest began in 1997.

Bettors receive five additional possibilities to consider that have often had their share of surprises. Heres a look at the history of each of the conference championships.

SEC

The SEC will be playing it 18th championship game and has a rematch from last season, with Alabama facing the top-ranked team in the country in Florida. In the previous seventeen years, four teams, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee or LSU have been one of the participants in this contest. The favorite has won 14 of the 17 games; however it has been a battle most of the time as 8-8-1 against the spread record shows. For many college football fans, especially in the South, this game would do just fine to settle the national championship in 2009. However, it is just another step closer for the winner, moving to BCS title game and this team will likely be a favorite against whomever they play. Since 1996, the total has gone on runs of two or more and the UNDER has been the play the last two seasons.

Past SEC Championship Game Results

Date – Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 -FLORIDA (-10, 54) 31, ALABAMA 20 -FAV/FAV/UNDER
12/1/07 – LSU (-7, 58) 21, TENNESSEE 14 – FAV / Push / UNDER
12/2/06 – FLORIDA (-3, 44.5) 38, ARKANSAS 28 – FAV / FAV / OVER
12/3/05 – GEORGIA 34, LSU (-2, 42) 14 – DOG / DOG / OVER
12/4/04 – AUBURN (-14.5, 47.5) 38, TENNESSEE 28 – FAV / DOG / OVER
12/6/03 – LSU (-3, 42) 34, GEORGIA 13 – FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 – GEORGIA (-9, 47) 30, ARKANSAS 3 – FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/8/01 – LSU 31, TENNESSEE (-7, 54) 20 – DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/2/00 – FLORIDA (-10, 51.5) 28, AUBURN 6 – FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/4/99 – ALABAMA 34, FLORIDA (-7, 51) 7 – DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/5/98 – TENNESSEE (-15, 48) 24, MISSISSIPPI ST 14 – FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/6/97 – TENNESSEE (-7.5, 58.5) 30, AUBURN 29 – FAV / DOG / OVER
12/7/96 – FLORIDA (-14, 48.5) 45, ALABAMA 30 – FAV / FAV / OVER
12/2/95 – FLORIDA (-24, 56) 34, ARKANSAS 3 – FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/94 – FLORIDA (-7, 46.5) 24, ALABAMA 23 – FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/93 – FLORIDA (-4.5, 43.5) 28, ALABAMA 13 – FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/5/92 – ALABAMA (-10, 37) 28, FLORIDA 21 – FAV / DOG / OVER

Big 12

The Big 12 joined the festivities in 1996 and exploded onto the scene with a memorable contest. Nebraska had its usual powerhouse and was huge 20.5-point favorites over Texas, who had lost four regular season games. Longhorns coach John Mackovic emptied the playbook, utilizing trick plays and fourth down attempts and upset the heavily favored Cornhuskers 37-27. This gave the Big 12 affair instant credibility. Two years later, an unbeaten Kansas State squad cruised into the title game as 17.5-point favorites and was upset 36-33 by Texas A&M. Five seasons later, the Wildcats were able to pull the same trick on Oklahoma. The Sooners were unbeatable and two touchdown favorites over Bill Snyders K-State club. The Wildcats came out throwing deep and caught an overconfident Oklahoma team off-guard and buried Bob Stoops Sooners 35-7. Those represent three of the four losses by the favored team in 13 tries. The favorite is 8-4-1 ATS in the history of the game. Since 2002, this contest has been a series of blowouts, with the average winning margin being 31.7, with the closest three years ago, as Oklahoma won 21-7 over Nebraska. Eight of the 13 contests played have covered the spread by 10 or more points. The South Division has been by far the better of the two Big 12 divisions and that is shown by 5-0 SU and ATS dominance the last five years in this encounter. The UNDER has been the play five of the last seven contests.

Past Big 12 Championship Game Results

Date – Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 – OKLAHOMA (-16.5, 78.5) 62, MISSOURI 21 – FAV / FAV / OVER
12/1/07 – OKLAHOMA (-3, 64.5) 38, MISSOURI 17 – FAV /FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 – OKLAHOMA (-3.5, 44.5) 21, NEBRASKA 7 – FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/05 – TEXAS (-25, 60.5) 70, COLORADO 3 – FAV / FAV / OVER
12/4/04 – OKLAHOMA (-23.5, 54.5) 42, COLORADO 3 – FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/6/03 – KANSAS ST 35, OKLAHOMA (-14, 53) 7 – DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/7/02 – OKLAHOMA (-7, 51) 29, COLORADO 7 – FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/01 – COLORADO 39, TEXAS (-7, 54.5) 37 – DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 – OKLAHOMA (-3, 53) 27, KANSAS ST 24 – FAV / Push / UNDER
12/4/99 – NEBRASKA (-8, 52.5) 22, TEXAS 6 – FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/5/98 – TEXAS A&M 36, KANSAS ST (-17.5, 46) 33 – DOG / DOG / OVER
12/6/97 – NEBRASKA (-19, 53) 54, TEXAS A&M 15 – FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/96 – TEXAS 37, NEBRASKA (-20.5, 56) 27 – DOG / DOG / OVER

MAC

In 1997, the MAC joined the fun and has been the most entertaining of the conference championships. Eight of the 12 games played have been decided by eight points or less in highly competitive conflicts. This will be Central Michigans third appearance in the last four years in this game. This sets up another meeting with Ohio U., whom they whipped in 2006. Being the underdog is the better position in this contest as they are 7-4 ATS, with the favorite only 6-5 SU in lined MAC matchups for the crown. Following the same line of thinking, the team with the poorer record heading into the game is 7-2-1 ATS (Ohio U, this season). The dog has covered a double digit spread in all four instances.

Past MAC Championship Game Results

Date – Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/5/08 – BUFFALO 42, BALL STATE (-15, 62.5) 24 – DOG / DOG / OVER
12/1/07 – C MICHIGAN (-3, 64) 35, MIAMI OHIO 10 – FAV / FAV / UNDER
11/30/06 – C MICHIGAN (-3, 46.5) 31, OHIO U 10 – FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/05 – AKRON 31, N ILLINOIS (-13, 53.5) 30 – DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/04 – TOLEDO 35, MIAMI OHIO (-1.5, 64) 27 – DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/4/03 – MIAMI OHIO (-6.5, 57) 49, BOWLING GREEN 27 – FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 – MARSHALL (-2.5, 62.5) 49, TOLEDO 45 – FAV / FAV / OVER
11/30/01 – TOLEDO 41, MARSHALL (-2.5, 63.5) 36 – DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 – MARSHALL 18, W MICHIGAN (-6.5, 54.5) 14 – DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/99 – MARSHALL (-20, 56.5) 34, W MICHIGAN 30 – FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/98 – MARSHALL (-12, 48) 23, TOLEDO 17 – FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/5/97 – TOLEDO 14, MARSHALL 34 – N/A / N/A / N/A

ACC

The ACC has engaged in the fray in the last four years and it does not elicit much support on a local or national level. The ACC has had severe attendance problems; not being able to bring many of the locals to the contests played in Jacksonville or Tampa and would probably be better suited in Charlotte. The ACC championship has seen the favored teams lose outright three of four times, opening up more conjecture for this season. This is the second straight year the game features a rematch, with Georgia Tech having stopped Clemson 30-27 as five-point home favorites. After several years of not living up to expectations, the Tigers have finally made it to the title tilt. This is the Yellow Jackets second appearance in ACC finale and rest assured it will be a much higher scoring affair then their last visit.

Past ACC Championship Game Results

Date – Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 – VIRGINIA TECH 30, BOSTON COLLEGE (-1, 38) 12 – DOG / DOG / OVER
12/1/07 – VIRGINIA TECH (-4, 48) 30, BOSTON COLLEGE 16 – FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 – WAKE FOREST 9, GEORGIA TECH (-1, 40) 6 – DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/05 – FLORIDA ST 27, VIRGINIA TECH (-14.5, 45) 22 – DOG / DOG / OVER

Conference USA

Conference USA does not have the football tradition to play such a game at a neutral site and instead has one of the teams participating as the host. The home team has won and covered the first three conflicts, until East Carolina pulled the big surprise. The Pirates are back to defend their title, this time at home. Though the sampling is small, it is not a surprise this defensively-challenged conference is the only one that has not had a total under 50. This leads to negative angles for both teams in this battle. Houston is 2-9 ATS in road games when they allow 28 or more points, while East Carolina is 0-6 ATS when they concede 28 or more points.

In looking at the history of all games played on the home field of one team, the host is 7-3 SU, covering the spread on five occasions. The Over has been the play in six of the 10 affairs.

Past Conference USA Championship Game Results

Date – Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 – EAST CAROLINA 27, TULSA (12, 66) 24 DOG /DOG / UNDER
12/1/07 – CENTRAL FLORIDA (-7.5, 73) 44, TULSA 25 – FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/06 – HOUSTON (-5.5, 53.5) 34, SOUTHERN MISS 20 – FAV / FAV / OVER
12/3/05 – TULSA (-2.5, 57) 44, C FLORIDA 27 – FAV / FAV / OVER

ACC Championship Preview
By Kevin Rogers

The fifth installment of the ACC Championship takes place this Saturday night in Tampa, as both Georgia Tech (10-2, 7-1 ACC) and Clemson (8-4, 6-2 ACC) look to claim its first conference title since the league’s expansion in 2003. The ACC instituted the championship game in 2005 after Boston College joined the conference, giving the league 12 teams. Interestingly, two of three teams that left the Big East to migrate to the ACC have enjoyed the most success as far as conference title appearances go.

Virginia Tech has claimed two conference championships, while losing to Florida State in the inaugural ACC title game in 2005. Boston College has been on the short end the last two years against Virginia Tech, while Miami does not have an ACC title game appearance on its ledger.

Georgia Tech fell in the 2006 ACC title game to Wake Forest as 2 ½-point favorites in a scintillating 9-6 loss to the Demon Deacons. Clemson will be making its first appearance in the ACC championship, while the Tigers seek their first conference title since 1991, the year before FSU joined the ACC.

The Jackets and Tigers began the ACC schedule on September 10, as Tech beat Clemson, 30-27 at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. Tech jumped out to a 24-0 lead in the second quarter thanks to a pair of touchdowns from over 80 yards out, including an 82-yard touchdown scamper from Anthony Allen. Clemson quarterback Kyle Parker rallied the Tigers back with three touchdown tosses, as a 63-yard score by the electric C.J. Spiller began the scoring barrage.

The Tigers eventually took a 27-24 advantage in the final quarter, but the Ramblin’ Wreck kicked a pair of field goals to win the game. Georgia Tech ran for 301 yards, despite leading rusher Jonathan Dwyer rushing for just 66 yards in the victory. However, the Tigers cashed tickets as 5 ½-point road underdogs, while easily sailing ‘over’ the total of 44.

Georgia Tech followed up the Clemson win with a poor showing at Miami the next week, as the Hurricanes drilled the Jackets, 33-17. The ‘Canes outgained the Jackets, 454-228, as Georgia Tech was limited to 95 yards on 39 carries. The Wreck bounced back by winning eight straight games, including all six ACC contests. Tech’s hot streak was slowed up by intra-state rival Georgia last Saturday, 30-24. Paul Johnson’s squad cashed plenty of tickets after the Miami defeat, going 7-2 ATS the last nine games.

Clemson began the season dropping two of its first three ACC contests, including a disappointing loss at underachieving Maryland. The Tigers rebounded by winning each of their last five conference games, scoring at least 34 points in each victory. The most glaring win out of the five was an overtime triumph at Miami, 40-37, as Spiller scored a pair of touchdowns, including a kickoff return for a score prior to the half. The Tigers ended the season with a 34-17 setback at rival South Carolina, snapping a six-game winning streak. Clemson has drilled the ‘over’ in five straight lined games, while going ‘over’ the total in two of three games listed at 55 or above.

VI handicapper Joe Nelson feels the ACC took a hit when Clemson and Georgia Tech each stubbed their toes last week, “With both teams losing last week to SEC teams, this ACC title game has lost some of its national scope in a year where the conference appeared to be making some progress in its national presence.”

However, Nelson says that the Yellow Jackets’ running game will make or break them on Saturday, “Georgia Tech’s rushing numbers have been incredibly impressive this season, but quality defenses have been able to slow the Jackets down and having already faced the Tigers this year will be an advantage. Clemson adds the potential for scoring on special teams with the most dangerous return man in the nation with Heisman candidate C.J. Spiller.”

VI senior handicapper Brian Edwards says that last Saturday’s performances by each squad may hurt them this week, “I think bettors have to be concerned about how both of these teams played last week. I don’t think you can blame last week’s lackluster efforts on the look-ahead spot because both were playing their in-state rivals with bragging rights on the line.”

Edwards is bullish on the Jackets the second time around after they got by the Tigers earlier this season, “I had Georgia Tech in the first game back in September and lost when Clemson produced the backdoor cover. Nevertheless, I think the Yellow Jackets are the side here because I give them a big advantage in coaching. Dwyer and Josh Nesbitt will make more big plays than Spiller, and Georgia Tech will win the ACC just as I predicted back in August to pay me and others a plus-750 payout.”

Nelson says that the Tigers benefited from playing on the Atlantic side of the conference, “Clemson has been the vastly superior defensive team on the year, but the schedule has been less difficult and the Tigers have been a poor road team this season with much worse performances. Georgia Tech is a difficult match-up in this situation and the Jackets were more dominant in ACC play and were victorious the first time around.”

The Yellow Jackets are currently listed as a one-point favorite at most outfits, with the total set at 55. The game kicks off at 8:00 PM Eastern at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa on Saturday night

Saturday, December 5th

(1) Florida vs. (3) Alabama
Gators: SERIES: 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS versus Alabama in SEC title games / won 31-10, as 10-point favorites in title game last year / 10 straight time the Gators are favored over the Tide in this series defending national champions are 12-10-3 SU and 6-18-1 ATS as favorites of less than seven points versus an opponent with revenge since 1989 Gators football teams have never had an undefeated season in their 101-year school history

Crimson Tide: 2-4 SU and ATS in SEC championship games – all versus Florida last year Tide was 12-0 ranked No. 1 when lost 31-20 to Gators in this game last year Saban: 16-8-1 ATS dog w/revenge, including 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS when taking less than seven points / 9-3 SU and ATS versus undefeated team when his team is undefeated

(2) Texas vs (20) Nebraska
Longhorns: SERIES: 7-1 SU – only one win by more than 10 points McCoy: 17-1 SU and 12-4-1 ATS versus opp off spread loss, including 6-0 ATS versus .666 or greater opp

Cornhuskers: 1-15 SU and 5-10-1 ATS dogs versus undefeated opp both teams are 2-2 SU and ATS in this game (1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS versus each other) teams in Big 12 Conference championship games with a win percentage of .750 or less are 1-6 SU and ATS

(5) Cincinnati at (15) PITTSBURGH
Bearcats: 5-1 as conf favs/dogs 4 < pts 4-1 vs conf rev 1-4 off SU win but ATS loss 1-4 in LRG… 2-5 off DD non-con win vs conf opp

Panthers: SERIES: 4-1 L5 / 3-0 H 5-1 w/ conf rev 4-1 conf favs/dogs 4 < Pts 1-5 H vs .750 > conf opp winner wins the Big East and a bid into a BCS Bowl game

New Mexico State at (6) BOISE STATE
Aggies: 4-0-1 A off A 0-5 dogs 28 > pts 1-3 after San Jose St

Broncos: SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 3-0 H 4-0 Saturday off Fri gm 4-1 after Nevada 4-1 favs 35 > pts 5-2 in 2nd of BB HG 48-point or larger CFB favorites are 8-20 ATS

(12) Georgia Tech vs. Clemson
Yellow Jackets: 2nd appearance for Jackets in ACC title game – lost 9-6 to Wake Forest in 2006; 1st appearance for Tigers Johnson: 33-12 vs opp off loss – but only 13-21 SU and 17-17 ATS versus .555 or greater opp

Tigers: SERIES: 9-1 pick or dog vs Jackets lost to Yellow Jackets, 30-27, in Game Two this season

(18) Houston at EAST CAROLINA
Cougars: SERIES: visitor 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS (4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS last five) beat Pirates here last year, 41-24, as 11-point dogs gained 600 or more yard five times this season, including four of last five games

Pirates: defending champs, won 27-24 as 12.5-point dogs in title game at Tulsa last year Holtz: 21-7-1 ATS as a dog, including 17-2-1 ATS if scored more than 21 points last game game is at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, ECUs home field

Arizona at (19) USC
Wildcats: SERIES: 4-0 L4 / 4-1 A 4-1 Last Game 3-1 dogs vs opp in 3rd straight HG *5-2 as conf dogs 10 < pts 5-2 in 2nd of BB RG

Trojans: 5-0 SU and ATS H off back-to-back H 5-1 after UCLA 2-8 vs conf rev 0-5 favs less than 13 points this season havent gained more than 336 yards in any of last four games

(22) California at WASHINGTON
Golden Bears: 0-4 fav off SU dog win 0-3 vs opp w/revenge of Stanford 1-11 fav 3 or more vs opp w/revenge off double-digit win 1-4 A w/rest 6-12-1 ATS away from Game Eight out

Huskies: 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS HD versus opp off back-to-back SU and ATS wins

(23) West Virginia at RUTGERS
Mountaineers: 3-0 SU and ATS away after Panthers 11-2 A vs .750 or less con opp

Scarlet Knights: SERIES: 1-3 H / host 1-6 6-2 LHG 9-1 SU and ATS L10G season L2Y
Note: Season completed for all other ranked teams

College Football Top 25 Cheat Sheet: Week 14
By Nick Parsons

No. 23 West Virginia (8-3) at Rutgers (8-3) -1.5, 44.5

Why West Virginia will cover:

The Mountaineers enter this contest in fine form and should be sharp, having played their toughest competition in the last two weeks. They’ll be carrying momentum from their dramatic last second victory over Pitt. Prior to that, they put in a decent performance against undefeated Cincinnati, losing only by three. Quarterback Jarrett Brown hasn’t put up numbers that stick out, but should keep the Rutgers defense honest, allowing for a possible big day from Noel Devine, who rushed for 134 yards and a touchdown last week.

History is also on West Virginia’s side with a 30-4-2 edge in this series with its last loss to Rutgers coming in 1994.

Why Rutgers will cover:

The line opened at 2.5 in favor of West Virginia, but early money on Rutgers has now made the home team the favorite. Rutgers has covered the spread four times in their last five games and it seems like their young stars on offense are finally coming of age. Freshman quarterback Tom Savage leads the team and another freshman, Mohamed Sanu, rushed for 148 yards and two touchdowns last week. Impressive considering he has played wide receiver for most of the season. The Scarlet Knights defense has been solid ranking No. 13 in the country in points given up at 16.8 per game.

These two teams have a combined 8-13 over/under record this year and the last two games in this series have gone under.

No. 5 Cincinnati (11-0) at No. 15 Pittsburgh (9-2) +2, 58.5

Why Cincinnati will cover:

Their offense is one of the most explosive in the nation scoring 39.4 a game and averaging 472 yards of total offense. Quarterback Tony Pike is coming off of a 399-yard, six-touchdown performance and even when he is out backup Zach Collaros has done a great job throwing for 1,434 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Cincinnati has been perfect this year and has proven that they can win close games against tough competition.

Why Pittsburgh will cover:

This Bearcats have had the luxury of playing at home for the entire month of November and now they have to close out the year on the road against a Pitt team that has a perfect record at Heinz Field (the game is sold out). Freshman running back Dion Lewis has rushed for 1,441 yards this season and produced back-to-back 150 yard games. Senior quarterback Bill Stull will look to close out his career strong after having a disappointing game last week where he threw two key interceptions.

The last three Pitt games have gone under the total, but the Mountaineers are averaging 40 points per game in their last three.

New Mexico State (3-9) at No. 6 Boise State (12-0) -47.5, 58

Why New Mexico State will cover:

There are several variables to contend with when dealing with a spread so high. One has to factor in at what point will this game be out of reach for the Aggies and also at what point will Boise State’s Chris Petersen put in his subs? In New Mexico State’s blowout loss to Nevada, the Aggies managed to score 14 points in the final 10 minutes so the potential for a backdoor cover is there when opposing teams slack off. Also, poll voters really won’t see a difference between a 40-point win and a 70-point win.

Why Boise State will cover:

2007: Boise State 58, New Mexico State 0
2008: Boise State 49, New Mexico State 0

Four of the last five New Mexico State games have gone under the total, however, Boise is on a four-game over streak and is averaging 53 points per game during their last three.

Arizona (7-4) at No. 19 USC (8-3) -7, 49.5

Why Arizona will cover:

Arizona has kept games close this year, even the ones they lose. Their three Pac-10 losses this season have been decided by an average margin of 4.6 points. USC has not scored more than 20 points in the last three games of this series. The Wildcats have also covered the spread in the last four meetings in this series.

Why USC will cover:

Arizona has had problems on the road this year having only covered the spread once in five tries. Injuries have also hit the Wildcats with tailback Nic Grigsby and receiver David Douglas not expected to play. Quarterback Nick Foles will start, but he will have to deal with a broken hand on his opposite throwing arm. This has been a disappointing season for powerhouse USC, but they got a bit of their swagger back with a 28-7 victory over UCLA last week.

The last three games in this series have gone under the total.

No. 22 California (8-3) at Washington (4-7) +7, 58

Why California will cover:

The Golden Bears have momentum on their side with recent wins over Arizona and Stanford. Backup running back Shane Vereen has done an outstanding job replacing injured Jahvid Best. Vereen rushed for 159 yards and a score against Arizona and had 193 yards and three touchdowns in the victory over Stanford. That bodes well for Cal who will face a rush defense that ranks No. 9 in the conference in yards surrendered at 155 per game.

Why Washington will cover:

Washington is a bit better than their 4-7 record indicates. While at certain points during the season they have had total breakdowns (mostly against teams from the state of Oregon), their season does include wins over Arizona and USC. This also isn’t the same team that Cal beat 48-7 as quarterback Jake Locker was out for that game. The last time Cal visited Seattle they lost 37-23.

Eight of the last nine games in this series have gone over the total.

No. 18 Houston (10-2) vs. East Carolina (8-4) +2.5, 68

Why Houston will cover:

Houston has been on of the best bets this year with an outstanding 8-3 ATS record. They come into the Conference USA championship game with the No. 1 ranked offense in the country averaging 583.1 yards and scoring 44.9 points per game. The last meeting between these two teams was last year where Houston won 41-24. Quarterback Case Keenum threw for 401 yards and three touchdowns in that game.

Why East Carolina will cover:

East Carolina has the better conference record and will have home field advantage. That bodes well for a team whose only home loss this season was to Virginia Tech. Houston has struggled on the road this year with their only two losses away from home. They also struggled against a 5-7 Tulsa team, squeaking out a 1-point victory.

Houston has played to the over in four of its last five games. And this is a team that not only scores points but give up a lot as well ranking No. 83 in points allowed at 28 per outing. This is the highest total East Carolina will be dealing with this year as its previous high was 56.

No. 1 Florida (12-0) vs. No. 3 Alabama (12-0) +5.5, 41

Why Florida will cover:

Auburn almost pulled off the upset against Alabama by containing Mark Ingram who was held to 30 yards rushing. All they did was simply stack the middle forcing Alabama to run on the perimeter. Look for Florida to do the same, perhaps with even more success, even without suspended Carols Dunlap in the lineup for the Gators. Florida ranks No. 2 in the nation in rush defense, allowing just 77.2 yards per game. The last eleven SEC title games have been decided by 7 points or more.

Why Alabama will cover:

The problem in last year’s SEC title game for Alabama was fatigue, where they saw the Gators outscore them 14-0 in the fourth quarter. With come-from-behind wins this season against LSU and Auburn, the Crimson Tide seem to be in better form towards the end of the game. Florida has also given up 28.0 sacks this season and they will be going up against much improved Alabama pass rush led by the 365-pound Terrence “Mount” Cody.

Both teams are a combined 8-14 on totals this season. Florida has actually been one of the best under bets this year with a 3-8 over/under record, but 41 is the lowest number that they have dealt with this season.

Total Talk – Title Games
By Chris David

Usually we reserve this piece just for the NFL but with the vast majority of gamblers focusing on the quartet of college football championships this Saturday we decided to put in the overtime.

Without further adieu, let’s take a closer look at the totals.

CUSA – Houston at East Carolina (68.5)

This total is the highest on the board for Saturday and its understandable considering not many teams have been able to slow down Houston and its top-ranked offense (44.9 PPG, 583 YPG) all season. Another factor with this number is that the Cougars’ defense (28 PPG, 445 YPG) is ranked 110th in total yards. East Carolina doesn’t have the most potent offense (26.9 PPG) but its defense (21.25 PPG) is the second best in Conference USA. Since this game is being played at ECU, it should be known that the defense (18 PPG) has been even better at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium this year.

The Pirates (29) and Cougars (28) have both been opportunistic with takeaways on defense. The two teams didn’t meet during the regular season, but Houston QB Case Keenum helped his team notch a 41-24 road victory over East Carolina in 2008, which saw the ‘over’ cash. Five of the last six encounters between the two schools have have gone ‘over’ the number. Before you run to the counter and place your ‘over’ bets, keep in mind that East Carolina beat Tulsa 27-24 last year in the title game and that was a Golden Hurricane offense that was averaging just under 50 PPG. The game easily went ‘under’ the number.

SEC – Florida vs. Alabama (41.5)

A lot of defense is expected to be played at the Georgia Dome on Saturday when the Gators and Crimson Tide clash for the second straight year in the title game. Florida (9.8 PPG) and Alabama (10.8 PPG) are ranked first and second nationally in scoring defense, and both schools are allowing 233 YPG in total defense as well. Will the defensive units rise up to the occasion or should we expect some big plays? If you do witness some highlights, don’t expect it to happen through the air, at least not often. UF (214 YPG) and Alabama (194 YPG) have both struggled passing the football, yet they know how to pound the rock, which helps the clock run and run quickly too.

Last year, Florida earned a 31-20 decision against Alabama in the SEC Championship, but the combined 51 points fell ‘under’ the closing number of 54 points. The Gators have watched the ‘under’ go 8-3 on the season but this is the lowest total posted in all of their lined games. Alabama has had three totals listed at 41 ½ or lower this year and the ‘over’ has gone 2-1 in those contests.

ACC – Georgia Tech vs. Clemson (55)

The Yellow Jackets and Tigers meet for the second time this season, with this week’s battle happening from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay. Georgia Tech captured a 30-27 decision over Clemson on Sept. 29 at home, which easily went ‘over’ the closing number of 44. Even though both teams combined for over 800 yards, there was three touchdowns of 60 yards or more, plus two special teams scores helped as well. Fast forward ahead to the title game and the oddsmakers have adjusted the total by almost two touchdowns. Georgia Tech (35 PPG) does lead the ACC in scoring and Clemson (31.75 PPG) is right behind, but will the game slow down with a “Winner Take All” strategy?

Prior to this encounter, the previous four meetings between the Jackets and Tigers went ‘under’ the number. The first four ACC Championships have watched the total go 2-2 but none of the previous matchups have seen a total close to this number. G-Tech has had four totals this year listed at 55 or higher and the ‘under’ went 3-1 in those games. Meanwhile, Clemson has seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 in totals of 55-plus this season.

Big 12 – Texas vs. Nebraska (44)

Last year, the Big 12 was flooded with offensive juggernauts but it’s been the exact opposite this season. Defense has ruled the conference and that will be the focus on Saturday from Dallas when Texas and Nebraska collide. The Longhorns do boast a solid offense (43 PPG) that is ranked third nationally in scoring but Nebraska (25 PPG) has been inconsistent all season long. Texas has the ability to run or pass, but the Cornhuskers have been one-dimensional with their ground-and-pound style. The Longhorns haven’t seen a total this low all year but they do enter this affair with a 3-0 ‘over’ run, which includes last week’s 49-39 shootout victory against Texas A&M on Thanksgiving. Nebraska has seen the ‘under’ go 9-3 this season this year and the main reason is Bo Pelini’s defense (11 PPG). Only Texas Tech (31 points) was able to expose the unit this year and seven of those points came on a defensive touchdown. The last three meetings between Texas and Nebraska have gone ‘under’ the number

Betting Guide
By SportsPic

California at Washington

Winners of five of their last six including upset wins over ranked Stanford (34-28), Arizona (24-16) the Golden Bears have little trouble vs a Huskie defense abused this season allowing 398.0 total yards/game and 28.2 PPG. Crushing Washington 48-7 last year marking a sixth win in seven encounters (5-2 ATS) by an average 24.4 PPG. Lay the expected touchdown. Golden Bears are not only 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings in Washington but Huskies who pulled off a rare win last week vs in-state rival Washington State (30-0) are 1-11 ATS off home win by 28+ points, 0-4 SU & ATS it’s last four final home games of the season

Wisconsin at Hawaii

Hawaii (6-6, 6-5 ATS) behind an improved defense allowing just 11.0 PPG the past three and needing a victory to play in the Hawaii Bowl the Rainbows won’t be laying down when Badgers come visiting. Take the points, Rainbows are solid bets vs teams with a winning record (6-2 ATS), 4-1 ATS L5 non-conference games, 5-2 ATS L7 vs the Big Ten. On the flip side, Badgers are 4-10 ATS L14 away from home, 1-9 ATS L10 as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater.