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NFL Trends 11/22
jizzle24 (GOLD MEMBER) 10 months ago | 6 responses    

ATLANTA vs. NY GIANTS
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Atlanta

BUFFALO vs. JACKSONVILLE
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Buffalo is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games
Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Jacksonville is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo

CLEVELAND vs. DETROIT
Cleveland is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games
Cleveland is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games
Detroit is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Detroit is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games at home

INDIANAPOLIS vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay’s last 7 games when playing New Orleans

PITTSBURGH vs. KANSAS CITY
Pittsburgh is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Pittsburgh is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

SAN FRANCISCO vs. GREEN BAY
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Green Bay’s last 18 games at home

SEATTLE vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle’s last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Seattle is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Minnesota is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home

ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

CINCINNATI vs. OAKLAND
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

NY JETS vs. NEW ENGLAND
NY Jets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on the road against New England
NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
New England is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games

SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
San Diego is 2-3-3 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Denver
San Diego is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Denver is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games

PHILADELPHIA vs. CHICAGO
Philadelphia is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Chicago
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Monday, November 23

TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee’s last 8 games
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee

CLEVELAND at DETROIT
CLEVELAND: 17-4 Under in dome games
DETROIT: 1-7 ATS in Weeks 10 through 13

BUFFALO at JACKSONVILLE
BUFFALO: 12-3 ATS Away after allowing 35+ points
JACKSONVILLE: 0-8 ATS as a home favorite

PITTSBURGH at KANSAS CITY
PITTSBURGH: 28-8 Under Away off SU loss
KANSAS CITY: 5-14 ATS in home games

INDIANAPOLIS at BALTIMORE
INDIANAPOLIS: 6-2 ATS off home ATS loss/SU win
BALTIMORE: 14-5 Under vs. AFC South

ATLANTA at NY GIANTS
ATLANTA: 27-7 Over off road division loss
NY GIANTS: 14-5 ATS off a home game

SAN FRANCISCO at GREEN BAY
SAN FRANCISCO: 4-16 ATS Away after allowing 9pts
GREEN BAY: 19-5 Over off ATS win

SEATTLE at MINNESOTA
SEATTLE: 6-15 ATS as an underdog
MINNESOTA: 19-34 ATS off win by 14+ points

WASHINGTON at DALLAS
WASHINGTON: 49-72 ATS vs. division
DALLAS: 29-14 ATS in home November games

NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY
NEW ORLEANS: 8-1 ATS off road game
TAMPA BAY: 5-1 Over as home underdog

ARIZONA at ST LOUIS
ARIZONA: 12-1 ATS if 50+ total pts were scored last game
ST LOUIS: 3-11 ATS vs. division

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND
NY JETS: 21-8 Under after 2 straight home games
NEW ENGLAND: 26-10 ATS playing with same season revenge

CINCINNATI at OAKLAND
CINCINNATI: 5-1 ATS vs. Oakland
OAKLAND: 8-0 Under off home loss

SAN DIEGO at DENVER
SAN DIEGO: 10-3 ATS off BB ATS losses
DENVER: 14-4 Over off SU loss

PHILADELPHIA at CHICAGO
PHILADELPHIA: 7-2 Over this season
CHICAGO: 6-0 ATS off BB ATS losses

Monday, 11/23/2009

TENNESSEE at HOUSTON
TENNESSEE: 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
HOUSTON: 12-3 Over vs. division

Week 11 Betting Notes
By SHAWN HARTLEN

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-1)

Why Colts cover: They’re 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. They’ve won the last six meetings. Ravens will be without Terrell Suggs who has a knee injury. Peyton Manning has only been sacked eight times this season giving him time to find open receivers. In his last three games, Joe Flacco has not thrown for more than 195 yards and only has one touchdown and two interceptions.

Why Ravens cover: Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Since becoming the lead back for Baltimore, Ray Rice has amassed 347 yards and three touchdowns in three games against some tough defenses.

Total (44 1/2): Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-11)

Why Redskins cover: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Underdog is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 meetings. Ladell Betts rushed for 114 yards and a TD in place of Clinton Portis against a tough Broncos defense last week.

Why Cowboys cover: Redskins are 1-4-3 ATS in their last eight road games. DeMarcus Ware could pose problems for Washington’s offensive line which has allowed the third most sacks in the NFL.

Total (41.5): Over is 4-1 in Cowboys’ last five home games.

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Why Browns cover: Lions are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Detroit allows the most points in the league. The Lions have a hard time protecting rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Why Lions cover: They’ve won four of the last five meetings. Browns are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games. The Browns have been getting terrible play from their quarterbacks all season. Cleveland’s top return man and Wildcat threat, Joshua Cribbs has a neck injury.

Total (38.5): Under is 5-1-1 in Browns’ last seven road games and 5-1 in Lions’ last six home games.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Why 49ers cover: They’re 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games. Green Bay’s offensive line has been terrible this season and Aaron Rodgers holds onto the ball too long. Both lead to sacks and turnovers for opposing defenses.

Why Packers cover: Niners are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Green Bay. The Packers have won the six meetings SU. Alex Smith (six INTs in four games) could have problems with the Packers’ pass defense.

Total (42 1/2): Over is 23-10-1 in Packers’ last 34 games.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9)

Why Bills cover: They’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Jags will struggle to replace top defensive back Rashean Mathis who is out with a groin injury.

Why Jaguars cover: Maurice Jones-Drew has been dominant all season and should have no problem will a Bills defense that is last in the NFL. Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Buffalo just fired head coach Dick Jauron and will be go back to Ryan Fitzpatrick (49.8 rating) at quarterback. David Garrard plays much better at home.

Total (42.5): Over is 5-0 in Jaguars’ last five home games and 6-2 in Bills’ last eight road games.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (+10)

Why Steelers cover: Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Kansas City will be without leading receiver Dwayne Bowe, who is suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Kansas City doesn’t have the defense to keep up with Pittsburgh’s many threats.

Why Chiefs cover: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Jamaal Charles (103 yards, TD, 5.7 average) looked great last week and could be ready to make Chiefs fans forget about Larry Johnson.

Total (40): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (-11)

Why Seahawks cover: They’ve won three of the past five meetings. Justin Forsett was remarkable last week in place of Julius Jones, rushing for 123 yards and a TD against Arizona’s eighth-ranked rush defense. Vikings are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

Why Vikings cover: Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Combination of Brett Favre and adrian Peterson has made Minnesota difficult to defend on a weekly basis. Both starting corner backs for Seattle, Marcus Trufant and Josh Wilson, have concussions.

Total (46): Over is 4-1-1 in Seahawks’ last six road games and 5-2 in Vikings’ last seven games overall.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-6.5)

Why Falcons cover: They’re 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in New York. Road team is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings and has won the last 12 meetings SU.

Why Giants cover: Matt Ryan has struggled of late. He has 10 interceptions in his last five games. Atlanta will be without both Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood at running back.

Total (45.5): Under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5)

Why Saints cover: They’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Tampa Bay. Road team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Reggie Bush (98 total yards, 2 TDs) flourished in an expanded role last week and the Bucs have one of the league’s worst rush defenses.

Why Buccaneers cover: They’ve won three of the past four meetings. Tampa Bay is 2-0 ATS since Josh Freeman became the starting quarterback. Young ball-hawking secondary could limit an offense that likes to air it out. Underdog is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings. New Orleans’ secondary is banged up.

Total (50.5): Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (+ 9.5)

Why Cardinals cover: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in St. Louis. Kurt Warner has punished his former team, throwing for 818 yards and six touchdowns in three games at St. Louis.

Why Rams cover: Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Steven Jackson has been a monster. In each of his last three games he has rushed for over 131 yards and has totalled two touchdowns. Arizona’s once dominant run defense has allowed opponents to average over 152 yards per game on the ground in their last four games.

Total (46 1/2): Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in St. Louis.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (N/A)

Why Chargers cover: They’re 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. If Kyle Orton plays at all for Denver, he will do so with torn ankle ligaments. The Chargers (4-0) have been on a role since these teams met last month, while Denver (0-3) has been on a slide. Philip Rivers owns the Broncos, throwing for 1317 yards (263 per game) and 10 total touchdowns in his last five games against them.

Why Broncos cover: Held San Diego to 73 yards rushing in their last contest. Rushing attack should find holes against the Chargers 23rd ranked rush defense.

Total (N/A): Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.5)

Why Jets cover: They’re 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings in New England. Road team is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings. Darrelle Revis is one of the best shutdown corners in the league and held Randy Moss to 24 yards receiving in their last meeting.

Why Patriots cover: They’ve won four of the past six meetings. They will be fired up after letting last week’s game against Indianapolis slip away in the final minutes. Jets are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings and 1-5 ATS in their last six games. New York has been struggling to stop the run recently.

Total (45): Over is 6-2 in Patriots’ last eight home games and 4-1 in Jets’ last five games overall.

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (+ 9.5)

Why Bengals cover: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Bruce Gradkowski (career 58.7 QB rating) will start at quarterback for Oakland. NFL’s second-leading run defense will make it hard for Oakland to move the ball on the ground.

Why Raiders cover: They’ve won three of the past four meetings and have never lost Cincinnati at home. Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. Cincy is likely to without leading rusher Cedric Benson who has a hip injury.

Total (36): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (+3)

Why Eagles cover: They’ve won five of the past seven meetings. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Philly has the NFC’s 5th-best pass defense and Jay Cutler has thrown 12 interceptions in his last five games. LeSean McCoy has played well in Brian Westbrook’s absence.

Why Bears cover: Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. Philadelphia’s secondary is hurting and opposing quarterbacks have completed 70 percent of their passes in the last two games.

Total (45): Over is 4-1 in Eagles’ last five road games and 8-2 in their last 10 games overall.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-4.5)

Why Titans cover: They’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Underdog is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Chris Johnson (1,091 yards, eight TDs) is proving to be unstoppable in the running game. Titans are 3-0 SU and ATS since Vince Young has become the starting quarterback.

Why Texans cover: They’re 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games. Andre Johnson has torched Tennessee for 569 yards receiving and four touchdowns in their last five meetings. Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.

Total (48): Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Houston.

Week 11 NFL games

Sunday, November 22

Browns (1-8) @ Lions (1-8)- Cleveland star Cribbs got concussion on game’s last play Monday, another nail in Mangini’s coffin; Quinn was 0-7 on passes of 10+ yards. Browns scored five offensive TDs on 101 drives this year, with 43 3/outs and 25 turnovers. Detroit is no great shakes either; their only win is 19-14 over Redskins (+6) in Week 3- they’re 0-1 as a fave. Under is 6-2 in last eight Cleveland games, 3-1 in last four Lion tilts. Browns’ passing yardage the last five games: 22-106-81-74-74- they scored six or less points in six of their last eight games. NFC North home favorites are 1-5 vs spread in non-division games; AFC North road dogs are 4-3.

Bills (3-6) @ Jaguars (5-4)- Buffalo fired Jauron Tuesday, then took half the day replacing him, so they’re unplayable this week for sure; Bills allowed 72 points in last two games (six TDs/20 drives) after allowing total of 28 points (two TDs/40 drives) in three games before that. Four of last five Buffalo games stayed under the total; six of last eight Jaguar games went over. Jaguars won three of last four games, but they’re 0-3 as favorite this year, winning at home by 20-3-3 points. Buffalo covered three of its four games as a road dog, losing away games by 1-28-24 points. AFC South home favorites are 3-6 vs spread; AFC East dogs are 3-8, 3-4 on road.

Steelers (6-3) @ Chiefs (2-7)- Kansas City was unimpressive in winning at Oakland Sunday, now they’ve lost best WR Bowe for four weeks, they had been improving—only once in last five games (4-1 vs spread) have they lost by more than six points. Chiefs are 0-4 at home (1-2 as home dog) losing by 11-3-6-30 points. Steelers were held without TD last week; they’re 2-2 away from home, winning by 8-18 points (1-3 as road fave). Chief coach Haley is son of Dick Haley, who was Steelers’ personnel director in their glory years of the 70’s. Last three Pittsburgh games stayed under total. AFC North favorites are 6-5, 1-2 on road. AFC West underdogs are 8-9, 4-3 at home.

Colts (9-0) @ Ravens (5-4)- Undefeated Colts head back to city they bolted in dark of night 25 years ago; five of their nine wins are by four or less points, the last three by 4-3-1 points- they’ve actually been more impressive on road, winning by 4-21-22-36 points. Baltimore allowed total of 24 points in its last three games (three TDs/32 drives) but their offense was awful Monday- they have two TDs on last 21 drives, and have total of nine first half points in their last four games. Four of last five Raven games stayed under total. AFC South road teams are 8-4 vs spread out of their division. AFC North home teams are 5-5. Indy rushing yardage in last three games: 61-72-91. Not so good.

Falcons (5-4) @ Giants (5-4)- Two skidding teams collide here; Atlanta is 1-3 in last four games, losing last three road games by 16-8-9 points- they’re 1-4 on road with only win 45-10 at Candlestick (1-3 as road dog). Giants lost last four games before the bye, allowing 33.3 ppg (18 TDs on last 48 drives). Last four Falcon games and six of nine Giant games went over total. Giants are 3-4 as a favorite, 1-3 at home. Atlanta ran ball for 161-181-176 yards in last three games, but loss of Turner (ankle) hurts rushing attack. Giants allowed double figure second half points in seven of nine games. NFC South underdogs are 5-9 vs spread, 4-5 on road. NFC East favorites are 10-10, 6-5 at home.

49ers (4-5) @ Packers (5-4)- Both teams snapped losing skids last week with strong defensive efforts; Niners lost four of last five games; they’re 0-5 when they allow more than 16 points, 4-0 when they don’t- they are 3-0-1 as a road dog, losing away games by 3-3-4 points. Packers lost two of last three games, but are 3-2 as home favorite, with wins by 6-26-10 points- they held four of last five opponents under 280 total yards. AFC West road underdogs are 8-2 against spread; NFC North home favorites are 1-5. Rodgers has been sacked 16 times in last three games. Green Bay is 5-0 when it allows 17 or less pts, 0-4 if they allow 30+. 49ers average 19.8 ppg on the road.

Seahawks (3-6) @ Vikings (8-1)- Seattle was outscored 67-13 in second half of last four games; they had 14-0 lead in Arizona last week, couldn’t cover as an 8-point dog, much less win- they’re 0-4 as road underdog, losing games on foreign soil by 13-17-21-11 points. Vikings are 1-2-1 as a home favorite, with home wins by 3-7-2-17. NFC West dogs are 9-6, 8-2 on road. Favorites from NFC North are 9-3, 6-2 at home. Hasselbeck threw seven INTs in his last two games; he’s been sacked 14 times in his last four. Five of eight Viking wins are by 12+ points. Last three Seattle games, five of last seven Minnesota games went over the total.

Redskins (3-6) @ Cowboys (6-3)- Dallas had four-game win streak snapped by Packers last week; they’ve allowed nine sacks, had total of just 137 yards on ground last two weeks, so offensive line is struggling. Four of Redskins’ last five visits to Dallas were decided by five or less points (dogs 4-1 vs spread); Washington is 5-3 in last eight series games, they lost four of last five games overall, are 2-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 6-5-3-14 points (they are the only team to lose to Lions). NFC East home favorites are 0-4 vs spread in division tilts. Three of four Dallas home games went over total; six of last eight Redskin games stayed under.

Saints (9-0) @ Buccaneers (1-8)- New Orleans failed to cover last three games since their wild comeback in Miami (won 46-34 after trailing 24-6); Saints are 3-1 as road favorite, winning away games by 26-20-12-5 points. Bucs came off bye playing better, beating Packers, barely losing in Miami- they scored five TDs on last 26 drives, after three TDs on last 56 drives before the bye. Tampa is 3-6 vs spread as a dog in ‘09, 1-3 at home. Favorites are 4-1-1 vs spread in NFC South games this season. Saints’ run defense is struggling, allowing 154.4 yards per game over their last four games, which is why they’re struggling to put teams away. Both teams saw four of their last five games go over total.

Cardinals (6-3) @ Rams (1-8)- St Louis is first team in NFL history to play three consecutive home games against unbeaten teams, now NFC champs come to town, with their QB a St Louis icon. Arizona plays better on road- they’re 4-0 on road, winning by 14-24-7-20 points (they were underdog in all four of those games). Redbirds outscored last five foes 69-26 in second half. Rams are trying hard, getting better, but they’re talent-shy; only one of their five WRs was on team when season started. Four of Rams’ last five games, Arizona’s last three games went over total. Underdog is 7-2 vs spread in Cardinals games this season, with Redbirds 2-3 against the spread as a favorite.

Jets (4-5) @ Patriots (6-3)- Jersey (+3.5) won first meeting 16-9 in Week 2, outscoring Pats 13-0 in second half, holding Brady to 4.9 yards/pass, but now Jets are 1-5 in last six games and allowed 30-24 points in last two games after giving up 17 or less points in five of first seven games. Interesting to see how New England bounces back after losing 35-34 in last minute at Indy last week, especially after head coach’s ill-fated gamble helped cause the defeat. Patriots gained 619-414-432-477 yards in last four games; think they’ll even score with a mouthy Jet squad that has lost its swagger. Four of last five Jet games went over the total. Underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in AFC East divisional games.

Bengals (7-2) @ Raiders (2-7)- Huge trap game for Bengals after beating the Steelers last week; only two of Cincinnati’s wins are by more than 7 points. Cincy is 0-3 vs spread as favorite this year, 0-1 on road; they’re 4-0 on road, but wins are by 7-3-3-6 points. Raiders lost three in row, six of last seven, as average of 8.5 ppg in last eight games (five TDs on 93 drives). Oakland is 4-4 as an underdog this year, 2-2 at home, losing home games by 4-20-38-6 pts. AFC North favorites are 6-5 vs spread, 1-2 on road. AFC West underdogs are 8-9 vs spread, 4-3 at home. Under is 6-2 in Oakland’s last eight games, 3-1-1 in last five Bengal contests. Cincy allowed 29 points in last three games.

Chargers (5-4) @ Broncos (6-3)- Denver lost last three games after 6-0 start; not sure how Orton’s ankle is, but it better be healthy, since backup is Simms (was 3-13 for 13 yards, INT at Washington). Broncos won first meeting with Bolts, running kick and punt back for TD in 34-23 win, outscoring Chargers 17-3 in second half (SD also ran kick back for TD in that game). Under is 7-2 in Denver games this season. Home team is 1-6 vs spread in AFC West games this season. San Diego ties for first place with win; they’ve won four games in row, scoring 28.3 ppg- they’re also 3-1 on road, 1-1 as a dog. Red flag for the Broncos is that, in last three games, they allowed 125-173-174 rush yards.

Eagles (5-4) @ Bears (4-5)- McNabb comes home after passing for 433 yards in loss at San Diego where Philly ran out of time on last drive, but Eagles lost last two games, are 2-2 on road, 0-4 when they score 23 or less points. Bears lost four of last five games; in three night games this season, Cutler threw 11 INTs in 12 quarters. Last three teams Bears beat are Seahawks-Lions-Browns, not exactly great wins. Chicago threw 99 passes, ran ball 113 times in last two games, terrible balance. NFC East favorites are 10-10 vs spread, 5-6 on road. NFC North underdogs are 4-6 vs spread, but 4-0 at home. Seven of nine Philly games went over total.

Monday, November 23

Titans (3-6) @ Texans (5-4)- Much like McNabb, Vince Young comes home, but he is on roll, leading Titans to three straight wins, scoring 38.3 ppg (nine TDs on last 31 drives with one turnover) after they had no TDs on 22 drives with seven turnovers in Collins’ last two starts. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in AFC South games so far this season. Texans had bye last week; they’ve won three of last four games, are 2-2 at home. Texans (+7) won first meeting 34-31 in Nashville, despite being outrushed 240-63; Schaub was 25-39/357 passing, averaging 9.2 yards/attempt. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Houston games, 2-6 in last eight Titan tilts.

Total Talk – Week 11
By Chris David

Week 10 Recap

The scoreboard operator was working hard last week, as the ‘over’ prevailed with a 9-6 record. Five the six that went ‘under’ the number also cashed first-half ‘under’ tickets for players too. The lone exception was the Kansas City-Oakland matchup out West, which saw the Chiefs own a 13-10 lead at the break. Like clockwork, the Raiders were blanked in the final 30 minutes, and lost 16-10. For the second straight week and third time this season, the Monday Night Football showdown went ‘under’ the number. On the year, the ‘over’ stands at 76-68-2 (53%).

Next week is Thanksgiving, which has three games on the docket:

Green Bay at Detroit
Oakland at Dallas
N.Y. Giants at Denver

On paper, most would probably agree that all three of these contests wouldn’t be classified as shootouts.

Fifty-Plus

The Saints and Buccaneers clash at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday and the oddsmakers opened the total at 51. The line seems fair, considering New Orleans is averaging a league-best 36.8 PPG, and its defense has added seven scores through nine games as well. Plus, the Saints face a Tampa defense that is ranked second worst in scoring (28.4 PPG).

After starting the year strong defensively, the Saints have surrendered 27, 34, 27, 20 and 23 points in the last five games. Tampa Bay isn’t an offensive juggernaut by any means but it has posted 38 and 23 in the last two weeks, and Raheem Morris’ defense is very opportunistic as well.

Even though the statistics on paper can justify an ‘over’ play, gamblers should be weary of the 50-spot the books posted. So far this year, there have been seven games that featured totals of 50 points or more and the ‘under’ has gone 5-2 (71%) in those contests. New Orleans has been featured in four of those games and the totals went 2-2.

We’re still a week away, but the Saints host the Patriots in Week 12 on MNF and the total is expected to be the highest of the year. “That total should come out between 51 and 53 and we’re expecting heavy ‘over’ betting that could push it up as high as 54 or 55,” said betED.com Sportsbook Manager Randy Scott.

Perfect at Home

As the second-half of the regular season continues, total players can start to identify trends for certain clubs on either the road or at home. After 10 weeks, three teams have seen all of their games go ‘under’ or ‘over’ at home.

Jacksonville has watched the ‘over’ go 4-0 at home this year. This Sunday, Buffalo visits the Sunshine State with a new coach, Perry Fewell. The Bills will start Ryan Fitzpatrick (240 yards, 2 INTs) behind center and he’s been horrible this year. The ‘under’ has gone 2-0 in both of his starts. Looking the four home games for the Jaguars, the first two were clear-cut ‘over’ tickets against Arizona (17-31) and Tennessee (37-17) but the last two against the Rams (23-20) and Chiefs (24-21) were sweat shops. The Bills have seen the ‘under’ go 3-2 on the road. The number (43) seems a little high, considering these two have played the last three years and the totals were 35.5, 37 and 37.

It’s easy to sit here and knock St. Louis for its 0-4 record at home this year but you have to look at its schedule. Could anybody else have done better against the Packers (17-36), Vikings (10-38), Colts (6-42) and Saints (23-28)? The results have produced an ‘over’ record of 4-0 and it could be 5-0 when Arizona comes to town on Sunday. The Cardinals have played better on the road (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) this year and the recent meetings are scary. Arizona has put up 34, 34, 48, 34 and 34 in the last five versus the Rams. The ‘over’ has only gone 3-2 during this stretch because St. Louis has had trouble matching points. Will the trend continue?

The Denver Broncos have surrendered 30, 28 and 27 points in their last three games but the defense is still only giving up 16.8 PPG on the season, which is ranked fourth in the NFL. At home, the number dips slightly to 15.3 PPG and could be lower if they didn’t give up 21 points to Pittsburgh in a MNF loss on Nov. 9. We note this game because the Steelers were the first team all year to score on the Broncos at home in the second-half. Despite Pitt’s outburst, the ‘under’ still cashed. On the year, the ‘under’ is now 4-0 from Invesco Field at Mile High. This week, some books put up a tentative number of 42 against the Chargers but that could dip because Denver QB Kyle Orton might not suit up. Six of the last seven in this series has gone ‘over’ the total, including their first meeting this season on Oct. 19, which saw three special teams touchdowns help the cause.

MNF Shootout in Houston?

The Texans and Titans have been known to light up the scoreboard whenever they tangle and their first go ‘round on Sept. 20 this season proved that. Houston captured a 34-31 decision over Tennessee and the game was ‘over’ by halftime (24-24). Six of the last seven in this series has gone ‘over’ the number and it appears the oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly for this week (48).

Houston was known as a solid ‘over’ play last year but this season has been different. The Texans have watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 and surprisingly the team has only put more than 30 points on one occasion, the aforementioned win over the Titans.

The Titans’ offense struggled during their 0-6 start, yet the team has posted 30, 34 and 41 in three games with Vince Young behind center. The gun slinger has been anything but one, yet he’s been smart (1 INT) with the football and elusive (1 Sack) during this run. Chris Johnson deserves all the credit for Tennessee’s explosion. The running back has totaled 631 yards and 6 TDs over the last three.

The ‘under’ has cashed in two straight under the MNF lights, but the ‘over’ is still 8-3 on the season.

Fearless Predictions:

Last week talked about how we’re getting close and unfortunately I couldn’t have been more wrong. The Best Bets fell to 9-9 (-90) on the season and we couldn’t even cash a teaser. That mark fell to 2-7 (-500) and is really making us believe that teasers are sucker bets or perhaps we just suck. Based on one-unit plays, we’re down $590 and the second-half of the season is dwindling. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Jets-Patriots 45

Best Under: Jaguars-Bills 42.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Jets-Patriots 36
Under Jaguars-Bills 49.5
Under Saints-Buccaneers 60

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Cleveland (1-8, 3-6 ATS) at Detroit (1-8, 2-6-1 ATS)

Two of the worst teams in NFL square off when the offensively challenged Browns travel to Ford Field to face the continually struggling Lions.

On Monday night, Cleveland fell flat against Baltimore in a 16-0 home loss as a 10½-point underdog. The Browns kept the game scoreless in the first half, then gave up all 16 points in the third quarter, including a Brady Quinn INT returned for a score. Cleveland has just five offensive touchdowns this year (three passing, two rushing), and none of the Browns’ running backs have reached paydirt through nine games. The Browns are averaging a league-worst 8.7 ppg.

Detroit has been slightly more competitive, losing to Minnesota 27-10 Sunday but getting the push as a huge 17-point road pup to snap a three-game ATS skid. The Lions have lost six in a row (1-4-1 ATS), and they are allowing a league-worst 29.3 ppg while scoring just 15.9 ppg (26th). QB Matthew Stafford, the No. 1 overall draft pick, is looking very much like a rookie, with six TDs more than offset by 12 INTs.

These teams have met each of the past eight preseasons, but haven’t played a meaningful game since October 2005, when Detroit scored a 13-10 win as a three-point road pup.

The Browns carry positive ATS streaks of 7-2-1 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points, 5-0 as a road ‘dog of the same price and 12-2 in roadies against teams with a losing home mark, but they are on ATS slides of 3-11-1 overall, 0-3-1 in November, 1-8-1 after a non-cover, 2-10-1 after a SU loss and 2-6 on the highway. The Lions carry negative ATS trends of 0-3-1 overall, 3-10 at Ford Field, 5-15-1 in November, 16-35-1 as a chalk and 2-5-1 as a home favorite, but they are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 hosting the AFC.

The under for Cleveland is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-1-1 on the road (all as a pup), 4-0 in November and 19-7-2 against losing teams. The under for Detroit is on runs of 5-1 at home and 5-2 after a SU loss, but the over for the Lions is on stretches of 8-2 against losing teams, 7-2 in November and 8-3 as a chalk of 3½ to 10.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Buffalo (3-6, 4-5 ATS) at Jacksonville (5-4, 4-5 ATS)

The Bills, who fired coach Dick Jauron on Tuesday, hit the road under interim coach Perry Fewell for a meeting with the Jaguars at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.

Buffalo was tied with Tennessee at 17 after three quarters last week, then gave up 24 unanswered fourth-quarter points in a 41-17 loss as a nine-point road ‘dog, precipitating Jauron’s dismissal. The Bills, averaging just 15.6 ppg (28th), have scored 17 points or less in six of their last seven outings, including four games of 10 points or less.

Jacksonville got a field goal in the final seconds to edge the Jets 24-22 Sunday as a 6½-point road underdog, winning SU for the third time in four games while also snapping a four-game ATS slide. Behind star RB Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars have the NFL’s sixth-best rushing attack (140.1 ypg). Drew ran for 123 yards and a TD against New York, and over the past four games, he’s churned out 530 yards and seven TDs, averaging 132.5 ypg in that stretch.

These teams have squared off each of the past five years, alternating SU and ATS wins over that stretch, with Buffalo taking a 20-16 road win as a four-point pup in September 2008. The Bills are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the underdog is also on a 5-2 ATS run. The SU winner is on a 9-0 ATS tear in this rivalry, and the road team is 6-3 ATS in that span.

The Bills are in ATS funks of 2-5 overall, 1-8-1 in November, 1-4 against the AFC and 3-10 against winning teams, though they’ve gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight roadies and are on a 6-1 ATS swing against non-division foes. The Jaguars are on a bundle of ATS slides, including 1-4 overall, 2-10 at home, 1-11 laying points, 0-8 as a home chalk, 0-4 against losing teams, 3-8 after a SU win and 4-11 outside the AFC South.

The under has hit in four of the last five for Buffalo, but the Bills are on “over” runs of 6-2 on the highway, 6-2 after a SU loss and 5-2 as a road pup. The over for Jacksonville is on rolls of 6-2 overall, 5-0 at home, 8-2-2 in November and 12-3-2 with the Jags favored.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Pittsburgh (6-3, 3-6 ATS) at Kansas City (2-7, 4-5 ATS)

The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers look to rebound from their lowest offensive output of the year when they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the dismal Chiefs.

Pittsburgh mustered just four Jeff Reed field goals Sunday against Cincinnati, losing 18-12 as a 6½-point home favorite. The loss snapped a five-game win streak (3-2 ATS) for the Steelers, who had put up at least 27 ppg during that surge. Despite the lack of offense against the Bengals, Pittsburgh’s defense remains among the league’s best, allowing just 277.4 ypg (second) and 17.4 ppg (sixth), and the Steelers field the league’s best run-stopping unit (69.3 ypg).

Kansas City earned a 16-10 victory over hapless Oakland last week as a one-point road pup, cashing for the fourth time in its last five games (2-3 SU). The Chiefs continue to field one of the NFL’s weakest scoring offenses, averaging just 15.8 ppg (27th), and they’re gaining just 266.6 ypg, which leads only the Raiders and Browns, respectively.

Pittsburgh is 2-1 SU and ATS in three meetings this decade with Kansas City, including a 45-7 blowout home win giving 6½ points in October 2006, the most recent contest. The SU winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes (7-0-1 ATS last eight).

The Steelers are stuck in ATS ruts of 3-7 overall (all as a favorite), 1-5 on the road (also all as a chalk) and 2-6-1 in roadies against teams with a losing home record, and they are on a 2-6 ATS dive as a non-division double-digit chalk. The Chiefs’ current 4-1 ATS surge has all come from the underdog role, and they are on a 6-2 ATS uptick catching double digits. However, they carry negative ATS streaks of 4-13 at home (1-4 last five), 2-5 as an Arrowhead pup, 2-5 in the AFC and 4-9 against winning teams.

Pittsburgh is on “over” stretches of 16-7 within the AFC, 5-2 as a road favorite and 4-1 laying 3½ to 10 points on the highway. Likewise, K.C. is on “over” runs of 4-1-2 at home and 15-5-2 as a home pup, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last four clashes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER

Indianapolis (9-0, 5-4 ATS) at Baltimore (5-4, 6-3 ATS)

The red-hot Colts aim to remain one of two unbeaten teams in the NFL when they take on the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.

Indianapolis overcame a 31-17 fourth-quarter deficit Sunday night to claim a 35-34 victory over New England as a two-point home chalk, the team’s 18th straight regular-season SU victory. The Colts benefited greatly from Patriots coach Bill Belichick’s blown fourth-down decision late in the fourth quarter, easily driving 30 yards for the winning TD. Indy sports the NFL’s third-best offense at 401.1 ypg, with QB Peyton Manning leading the No. 1 passing attack (315.1 ypg), and the Colts are fourth in scoring at 28 ppg.

Indianapolis remains No. 1 in scoring defense (15.8 ppg), despite the Pats putting up 34 points.

Baltimore claimed a lackluster 16-0 victory at Cleveland on Monday, scoring two TDs within 17 seconds in the third quarter (the second on a pick-six) to cover as a 10½-point favorite. Prior to that, the Ravens had been on a 1-4 SU skid (2-3 ATS). With the shutout, Baltimore now sports the seventh-best defense in yards allowed (302.8) and is fifth in scoring defense (17.1 ppg). Offensively, the Ravens are a 13th in total yards (348.9) and 11th in scoring (24.7).

Indianapolis is on a 6-0 SU tear (5-1 ATS) in this rivalry, including a 31-3 rout last year as a four-point home chalk. The Colts have cashed in the last five contests, winning all by at least nine points and three of them by 17 or more. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 clashes.

The Colts are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four November starts and 2-7 ATS in their last nine against winning teams, but they carry positive pointspread streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 4-1-1 as a road chalk and 26-9-1 in non-division roadies. The Ravens, meanwhile, are on a bundle of ATS upswings, including 21-8 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-1 in November, 7-3 getting points and 31-12 in non-division home games.

The under for Indy is on runs of 4-1 in November and 8-3 against AFC foes, and the under for Baltimore is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 6-1 at M&T, 4-0 against the AFC and 5-0 at home versus teams with a winning road record. And in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings. That said, the over is 18-7-1 in the Ravens’ last 26 starts as a ‘dog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and UNDER

Atlanta (5-4, 6-3 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (5-4, 4-5 ATS)

Two teams in need of a victory in order to get back in the playoff race meet up when the freefalling Giants play host to the Falcons in East Rutherford, N.J.

New York, which had its bye last week, got out of the gate with five straight wins (4-1 ATS), but has since dropped four in a row SU and ATS, including a 21-20 setback to the Chargers as a five-point home chalk two weeks ago. The Giants have dropped two in a row at home SU and ATS, as they tumbled to Arizona two weeks before the San Diego loss. After averaging 30.2 ppg in its first five outings, New York has managed just 20.3 ppg during its losing skid, while allowing 33.3 ppg, including 40 to Philadelphia and a whopping 48 to New Orleans.

Atlanta was 4-1 SU and ATS through five weeks, but has lost three of four (2-2 ATS) after falling to Carolina 28-19 Sunday as a one-point road favorite. The Falcons are averaging 24.5 ppg during the slide (24.6 ppg for the year), but they are giving up points at a more rapid pace, yielding 29.3 ppg. Furthermore, all three losses were on the road – 37-21 at Dallas, 35-27 at New Orleans and last week’s setback in Charlotte.

New York has won and covered in the last two clashes in this rivalry, after a 3-0 SU and ATS run by Atlanta. Most recently, the Giants rolled 31-10 on the road laying 4½ points in October 2007. The SU winner is on a 7-0 ATS roll, all as the visitor, and the Falcons are 4-0 ATS on their last four trips to face New York.

Along with their current 0-4 ATS skid, the Giants are on pointspread declines of 1-4 at home (all as a chalk), 2-6-1 after the bye, 0-4 against winning teams and 0-4-1 after a SU loss, though they still maintain positive ATS streaks of 39-13-3 within the NFC and 15-6 as a non-division favorite. The Falcons are on spread-covering streaks of 10-1 after a SU loss, 9-2 after a non-cover, 4-1 in November and 5-2 against NFC foes.

New York is on “under” stretches of 12-4 after a bye week and 9-4 coming off a SU loss, but the over is 5-2-1 in its last eight November outings. Atlanta is on a bundle of “over” runs, including 4-0 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 4-1 as a road pup, 4-1 against winning teams, 12-3 after a SU loss and 11-4 after an ATS loss. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings (5-0-1).

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS

San Francisco (4-5, 6-2-1 ATS) at Green Bay (5-4 SU and ATS)

The Packers, looking to inject themselves back into the NFC playoff chase, are home at Lambeau Field for the third time in four weeks when they take on the 49ers.

Green Bay put up a pair of fourth-quarter TDs and didn’t let Dallas into the end zone until the final minute of a 17-7 home win as a three-point underdog Sunday, snapping a two-game SU and ATS skid. The Packers are eighth in total yards this year (366.2 ypg) and tied for seventh in scoring (25.8 ppg), bolstered primarily by the top turnover margin in the NFL, at plus-13. The Pack had two fumble recoveries and an INT against the Cowboys, while committing no turnovers.

San Francisco held off Chicago for a 10-6 home victory on Thursday, Nov. 12, to narrowly cover as a 3½-point home chalk and end a four-game SU purge (1-2-1 ATS). The 49ers picked off Jay Cutler five times, and the last one came in the end zone with the Bears in the red zone. San Fran is among the league’s least-effective offenses, averaging just 277.9 ypg (27th) and 20.4 ppg (21st), though the defense is only yielding 20 ppg (11th).

Green Bay has won six in a row SU in this rivalry (5-1 ATS), going 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four clashes, including a 30-19 victory as a four-point road pup in December 2006, the most recent meeting. The Packers are also on a 4-0 ATS run against the Niners in Green Bay, and the SU winner is on a 7-1-1 ATS roll.

The Packers are on a handful of pointspread purges, including 1-5 after a spread-cover, 1-4 after a SU win, 1-4 in November, 2-5 as a home favorite and 2-5 hosting non-division teams. On the flip side, the 49ers are on ATS tears of 9-3-2 overall, 6-0-1 getting points, 5-0-1 as a non-division ‘dog, 3-0-1 on the road, 6-1-1 against winning teams and 6-2 in November.

Green Bay is on a bundle of “over” streaks, including 23-10-1 overall, 21-5 after a spread-cover, 18-5 after a SU win, 20-6-1 against NFC opponents, 17-6 laying points and 11-4 as a home chalk. Conversely, the under for San Fran is on stretches of 5-2 from the underdog role, 4-1 with the Niners getting 3½ to 10 points and 5-2 on the highway.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY

Seattle (3-6 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (8-1, 5-3-1 ATS)

The Vikings, who have bounced back nicely from their only loss of the year, aim to keep rolling when they take on the return to the Metrodome to face the Seahawks, who are still searching for their first road win of 2009.

Minnesota coasted past Detroit 27-10 Sunday for its second consecutive win since its 27-17 loss at Pittsburgh, though it had to settle for a push against the dismal Lions as an overwhelming 17-point home chalk. The Vikings are racking up 30.1 ppg, second only to the Saints (36.8 ppg), while gaining 369.1 ypg (seventh). Minnesota also sports a high-pressure defense, leading the league in sacks at 34.

Seattle bolted out to a 14-0 lead on the road against the defending NFC champion Cardinals last week, but couldn’t make it stand up in a 31-20 loss as a nine-point ‘dog, getting outscored 14-3 in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks have been held to 20 points or less in six of their last eight games, losing those six contests SU and ATS.

These NFC rivals’ last meaningful meeting came in October 2006, with Minnesota rolling 31-13 as a six-point road pup. Also, the SU winner has covered in six straight contests between these squads.

Despite their lofty SU record, the Vikings are on ATS dips of 1-5-1 at the dome, 1-4-1 as a home chalk, 1-10-1 laying more than 10 points and 5-13-1 following a SU win. Still, they have positive ATS trends of 3-0-1 in November, 3-0-1 in conference games and 4-1-1 against losing teams. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight starts and are on further ATS slides of 0-5 on the highway, 0-6 getting points, 0-5 against winning teams, 1-5 in the NFC and 9-23 in non-division road games.

The over for Minnesota is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against the NFC, 4-1 with the Vikes a chalk and 7-2 in November, and the over for Seattle is on tears of 5-2 overall, 4-0 with the Seahawks a pup, 4-1-1 on the road, 5-1-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and OVER