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Thursday 7-2 Service Plays
top dollar (GOLD MEMBER) 9 months ago
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7 responses
SPORTS ADVISORS
San Francisco (42-35) at St. Louis (42-38)
The Giants send left-hander Barry Zito (4-7, 4.55 ERA) to the mound at Busch Stadium for the finale of a four-game series with the Cardinals, who will start right-hander Todd Wellemeyer (6-7, 5.68).
Last night, San Francisco’s Matt Cain and St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright engaged in a pitchers’ duel, with neither ultimately figuring in the decision as the Cardinals won 2-1 on a Colby Rasmus homer in the 10th inning. The Giants have still won five of their last eight games – all on the road – and are on further runs of 8-4 overall and 6-3 against winning teams.
Conversely, St. Louis is on a 2-6 slide and carries additional negative streaks of 1-7 against the N.L. West, 2-5 at home and 2-4 against winning teams.
San Francisco has owned this rivalry lately, taking six of the last eight overall, and the Giants have gone 6-3 in their last nine contests at Busch Stadium (4-1 in the last five).
Zito has followed a four-game losing streak by going 3-1 in his last five starts, with the no-decision coming in Saturday’s outing at Milwaukee. In that contest, he got through five innings unscathed and with the Giants leading 4-0, but he gave up back-to-back homers in the sixth inning and exited with two outs and the game tied, and San Fran ended up losing 7-6.
Zito is 3-4 with a 5.20 ERA in eight road starts this season, and he’s 0-3 with a 4.57 ERA in four career starts against St. Louis, including a 6-2 home loss in May in which he allowed three runs on 10 hits and two walks in 6 2/3 innings.
The Cards have won three of their last four behind Wellemeyer, but he got the early hook Saturday at home against the Twins, after allowing three runs on four hits and four walks in just 2 1/3 innings of a 5-3 victory. In fact, Wellemeyer has allowed 21 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings over his last five starts, for a 7.17 ERA.
Wellemeyer is 3-5 with a 5.74 ERA in 10 home outings this season, but he’s 2-0 with a much more solid 3.00 ERA in three career starts against the Giants.
The over has hit in four of the last five meetings between these rivals, and the over for the Giants is on runs of 36-18-1 against the N.L. Central, 5-2 behind Zito, 5-1 with the southpaw facing the N.L. Central and 7-3-2 in Zito’s last 12 road starts. On the flip side, the under for the Cardinals is on rolls of 4-1 against lefties, 22-10-1 at home against winning teams, 5-1 with Wellemeyer facing a winning squad and 4-1 behind Wellemeyer at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee (42-36) at Chicago Cubs (37-38)
The Cubs return from a rough 10-game road trip looking to make up some ground in the N.L. Central when they send right-hander Ryan Dempster (4-5, 4.09 ERA) against the Brewers and fellow righty Seth McClung (3-1, 3.55) at Wrigley Field.
Chicago wrapped up a three-game set in Pittsburgh on Wednesday with a 4-1 victory, getting seven solid innings from Randy Wells (one run on six hits and a walk) and homers from Derrek Lee and Kosuke Fukudome. The Cubs went 3-7 on the road swing, but on their home field, they are on positive runs of 4-0 overall, 6-2 against winning teams and 9-3 against right-handed starters.
Milwaukee got shut out by Mike Pelfrey and the Mets in a 1-0 home setback last night. The Brewers have still won four of their last six and are on further upswings of 16-5 in series openers and 40-19 in division play, but they are on skids against righties of 4-10 overall and 1-4 on the road.
The Cubs have lost five in a row with Dempster starting, mostly due to low run production. Dempster has allowed 11 runs in 30 2/3 innings in that stretch, for a solid 3.22 ERA, but in the first four games of the skid, Chicago totaled just five runs. On Saturday across town against the White Sox, the Cubs’ offense finally got going, but Dempster got roughed up for five runs on eight hits and three walks in five innings of an 8-7 loss.
Dempster is 3-1 with a 4.14 ERA in six home starts this season, and he has been strong against the Brew Crew over the course of his career, going 9-3 with a 2.79 ERA in 37 appearances (15 starts). He has split his two starts against the Brewers this year, both at Milwaukee.
McClung has been almost exclusively a reliever this season, with 29 appearances but just one start. That start came Saturday at home against San Francisco, and he allowed three runs on six hits and two walks in four innings, though Milwaukee rallied from a 3-0 deficit to win 7-6.
McClung is 1-0 with a 3.28 ERA in 14 home appearances this year, and he’s 0-1 with a 2.55 ERA in 10 career appearances against Chicago. This will mark his first start against the Cubs.
The under for the Cubs is on a bundle of runs, including 5-1 overall, 19-6-2 within the division and 11-4 against winning teams, and with Dempster starting, the under is on rolls of 5-1 overall and 4-1 in series openers. With McClung starting, the under for the Brewers is on streaks of 9-3-1 overall and 4-1-1 on the road, but the over for the Brewers is on stretches of 11-5 overall, 7-1 against losing teams and 6-1 on the highway.
Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on surges of 13-6-2 overall, 5-1-2 in Chicago and 5-1 with Dempster taking the ball.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS
DUNKEL
NY Mets at Pittsburgh
The Pirates look to build on their 11-3 record in Paul Maholm’s last 14 starts as a home favorite. Pittsburgh is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-145).
Game 951-952: Arizona at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 13.764; Cincinnati (Harang) 15.407
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-135); Over
Game 953-954: Houston at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 14.745; San Diego (Correia) 15.328
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Over
Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 14.263; Atlanta (Vazquez) 15.529
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-140); Under
Game 957-958: San Francisco at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 14.894; St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 15.496
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135); Over
Game 959-960: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (McClung) 14.741; Cubs (Dempster) 16.256
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-145); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-145); N/A
Game 961-962: Seattle at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 16.709; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.066
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-300); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+250); Over
Game 963-964: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 14.949; Kansas City (Chen) 15.075
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+155); Under
Game 965-966: Baltimore at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.954; LA Angels (Lackey) 15.625
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+150); Under
Game 967-968: NY Mets at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Redding) 14.242; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 15.563
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-145); Under
WNBA
Connecticut at Indiana
The Fever are coming off a 63-54 win over New York and look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Indiana is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-4 1/2).
Game 601-602: Connecticut at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 109.931; Indiana 117.765
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 8; 149
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4 1/2; 141
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-4 1/2); Over
Game 603-604: Detroit at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 108.550; New York 115.722
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 7; 150
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 4; 144
Dunkel Pick: New York (-4); Over
Game 605-606: Sacramento at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 107.032; Minnesota 113.603
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 6; 159
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6); Under
CFL
Winnipeg at Edmonton
The Bluebombers look to take advantage of an Edmonton team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games in Week 1. Winnipeg is the pick (+9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Edmonton favored by only 8. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+9 1/2).
Game 405-406: Winnipeg at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 106.642; Edmonton 114.773
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 8; 56
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 9 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+9 1/2); Over
FRIDAY, JULY 3
Game 407-408: BC at Saskatchewan
Dunkel Ratings: BC 115.782; Saskatchewan 111.933
Dunkel Line: BC by 4; 55
Vegas Line: BC by 1; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (-1); Over
Al DeMarco
Thursday’s Play 5 Dime – CHICAGO WHITE SOX (Buehrle) – 1 1/2 Runs over Kansas City (Chen)
The White Sox offense plated 23 runs in a three-game sweep at Cleveland completed last night. Chicago has averaged 6.64 runs during its current 9-2 spurt, scoring six or more in eight of those 11 contests. Tonight the Pale Hose march into Kansas City to face Bruce Chen, who last Saturday made his first major league start since August of 2006 following elbow surgery. The lefthander allowed seven hits and four runs – all earned – in 6.1 innings while losing to a light-hitting Pittsburgh team.Chicago hurler Mark Buehrle struggled in his last start against the Cubs, giving up six hits and five runs – three earned – while walking three in just 5.2 innings. He received a no-decision in that game, but it did mark another White Sox victory, their 11th in his 15 outings this season. And Buehrle carries a 19-8 record and 3.48 career ERA against Kansas City into his third start versus the Royals this season. He failed to record a decision in either of the first two outings, but pitched well enough to win both, allowing five runs in 12.1 innings.Buehrle will face a KC attack that’s mustered just 26 runs in its last nine games, scoring no more than four in any of those contests.Chicago swept a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium in its first trip to Kansas City in the closing days of May. The White Sox are on a 13-4 run on the road, where they’re hitting over .280 this season. And, they’ve scored 37 runs and batted over .300 during their current five-game winning streak with Paul Konerko (5 HR last 11 games), Jermaine Dye (.486 last nine games) and Gordon Beckham (.579 and 6 RBI in last six games) powering the offense.Considering my bankroll, I wouldn’t mind playing this game on the moneyline. But, as you know, my limit is around -150 and you don’t need any handicapper to tell you to bet on an overwhelming favorite in such situations, even if that line isn’t that overwhelming. In reality, however, the prudent move and wise investment strategy tonight is to take the White Sox on the Run Line, making one of the hottest teams in baseball a great buy since we’re laying – 1 1/2 runs. And considering they’re averaging 6.64 runs in their last 11 games while the Royals have managed a total of 26 runs in their last nine, making this a Run Line release at – 1 1/2 runs is the mathematically-wise strategy.
Hondo
July 2, 2009
Hondo, the heartbreak kid, lost two the hard way last night, going down the tubes with the Angels and Giants to trim the bankroll to 130 cuellars.
Tonight, he will give Guthrie, a former stable stal wart, an opportunity to get back in—10 units on the Orioles to flutter past the Angels.
Cappers Access
Thur Astros
Thur Phillies
Free Silver Key Pick for Thursday ML Baseball
SAN DIEGO CORREIA -R +1.5 Runs, -155 Over Houston (3:35 et)
Joe Wiz
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Reds
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9 months ago top dollar (GOLD MEMBER) said ...
Free Sports Picks Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
287 – 188 run 60 % 35-18 run here Shocked
Thurs: Chi White Sox