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Friday 6-26 Service Plays
top dollar (GOLD MEMBER) about 1 year ago | 6 responses    

DUNKEL

Detroit at Houston

The Astros open up the interleague series looking to build on their 6-2 record in Wandy Rodriguez’ last 8 starts as a home underdog. Houston is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130).

Game 951-952: San Francisco at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 14.734; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.389
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-155); Under

Game 953-954: Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 14.981; White Sox (Contreras) 15.853
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-115); Over

Game 955-956: Cincinnati at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.069; Cleveland (Sowers) 15.288
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Under

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 14.516; Toronto (Romero) 15.386
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120); Under

Game 959-960: Washington at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Detwiler) 13.897; Baltimore (Bergesen) 15.841
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-175); Over

Game 961-962: Kansas City at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 13.749; Pittsburgh (Vazquez) 14.299
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+110); Over

Game 963-964: NY Yankees at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.831; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.596
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-160); Under

Game 965-966: Boston at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 15.813; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.404
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Under

Game 967-968: Florida at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 17.360; Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.581
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+130); Under

Game 969-970: Detroit at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 14.789; Houston (Rodriguez) 15.607
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Over

Game 971-972: San Diego at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Silva) 15.080; Texas (Millwood) 14.700
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-215); 10
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+195); Over

Game 973-974: Minnesota at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Perkins) 15.472; St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.745
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+150); Over

Game 975-976: LA Angels at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.446; Arizona (Buckner) 14.590
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-165); Over

Game 977-978: Colorado at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 15.295; Oakland (Anderson) 15.414
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 979-980: Seattle at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 15.470; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.687
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-180); Over

WNBA

Los Angeles at Seattle

The Storm look to take advantage of a Los Angeles team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 road games. Seattle is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10).

Game 651-652: Indiana at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 111.354; New York 113.757
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 2 1/2; 135
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 1 1/2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (-1 1/2); Under

Game 653-654: Detroit at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 110.432; Atlanta 111.925
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 163 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 155 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2); Over

Game 655-656: Sacramento at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 107.405; San Antonio 113.239
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 150 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+6 1/2); Over

Game 657-658: Los Angeles at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 109.690; Seattle 120.691
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 11; 149 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 10; 141
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10); Over

Jack Clayton
Guaranteed Selections
6/25/2009

5* Road Warrior Game of the Year :
Play the Tigers
Tigers (969) at Astros: A first place team against a Houston team battling it out with Pittsburgh for last place. Houston is 14th in the NL in runs scored. That is a bad sign against a hard throwing ace like Justin Verlander (8-3, 3.31 ERA). He has 118 strikeouts in 98 innings and has faced the Astros once in his career, shutting them down on 3 hits (7 Ks, no walks). Detroit is in first place and on a 7-game win streak. Houston has a losing record both home and away and will struggle to score against the Tiger ace and the vastly improved and stable Detroit pen.
Play the Tigers.

Jack Clayton
4-Star Major Mound Mismatch :
Play the Red Sox
4* (965) Red Sox at Braves: Boston’s stumble in Washington last night isn’t a worry. The Red Sox have won 16 of 22 games. You can’t win them all, and they had a bad game while getting a rusty John Smoltz in the lineup (who was tagged early). They outscored Washington 17-7 in rolling in the first two games and have been hot all month. Since June 6, DH David Ortiz is batting .357 with a .480 on-base percentage and an .833 slugging percentage. And they can start a new winning streak with ace Josh Beckett (8-3) on the hill, who is throwing hard and very well. He is showing that last season’s late slump was a mirage (an injury, really). Beckett has already faced the Braves once this season, and shut them out on 5 hits. This Atlanta offense is suspect, 11th in the NL in runs. Jair Jurrjens is slumping, as the team is 0-4 his last four starts.
Play the Red Sox

Jack Clayton
3-Star Situational Slammer
Play the Phillies

3* (957) Phillies at Jays: Philadelphia is still in first place despite a skid, losing a pair of games by one run. They are getting healthy, with Ryan Howard back from a short illness, plus Phillies closer Brad Lidge has been reinstated from the 15-day disabled list. Ace Cole Hamels will have his next start moved up to this game. The move will allow Hamels to make four starts instead of three before the All-Star Break. He’s also hot, as the team is 5-2 his last 7 starts. In those two defeats Hamels pitched great baesball, giving up 2 runs apiece in two starts, covering 14 innings, only 2 walks and 16 strikeouts. Yeah, he’s back as an ace. Toronto has been so banged up with injuries to the pitching staff that it is having a domino effect, taxing the pen. Starter Ricky Romero allows more hits than innings pitched and I see the Phillies rolling, with a DH added to their already dynamite lineup.
Play the Phillies

RatedPicks

Detroit Tigers -140
SanFran Giants +150
Sea Mariners/LA Dodgers OVER 7.5
Chi Cubs/Chic White Sox OVER 9

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Cardinals Thursday.

Today it’s the Cubs. The surplus is 745 sirignanos.

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

FRIDAY, JUNE 26

NATIONAL LEAGUE

San Francisco (39-32) at Milwaukee (38-34)

The top two teams in the National League wild-card chase begin a three-game weekend series at Miller Park, with the Giants’ Matt Cain (9-1, 2.28 ERA) slated to oppose Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo (7-4, 3.00).

San Francisco took Thursday off after scoring back-to-back wins at Oakland to wrap up the interleague portion of its schedule. The Giants have won five of their last six games and are on additional positive runs of 9-4 against winning teams, 6-2 after an off day and 4-0 on Friday. However, they’re just 11-26 in their last 37 games against the N.L. Central.

The Brewers continued their slump with Thursday’s 6-4 home loss to the Twins, as they’ve now dropped five of their last six and 11 of their last 16, going 2-7 at Miller Park during this stretch. They’re also in ruts of 1-5 against the N.L. West and 2-8 versus right-handed starters, but on the bright side Milwaukee has won 17 of 25 against opponents with a winning record and 14 of 19 series openers.

Milwaukee swept the six-game season series from the Giants last year by a combined tally of 49-18. However, when they went to San Francisco to open the 2009 season, the Brewers dropped two of three, getting outscored 19-11. Still, Milwaukee has won 14 of the last 17 meetings at Miller Park.

The Giants have won nine consecutive games behind Cain, including four straight on the road. The veteran right-hander is 7-0 during this nine-game stretch, giving up one earned run or fewer in seven of those games. Cain yielded a single run in each of his last two starts – both at home – covering 17 innings, with San Francisco beating Oakland 7-1 and Texas 2-1.

Cain is 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA in six road starts this year and 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA in three career starts against the Brewers. That one victory over Milwaukee came in his season debut April 9, as he gave up just one run on four hits in seven innings, rolling to a 7-1 home triumph.

Gallardo was a tough-luck 3-2 loser at Detroit on Sunday, yielding all three runs on six hits while striking out eight in seven innings. The right-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six straight starts and 12 of his 14 outings this season. With Gallardo on the hill, the Brewers are on upticks of 8-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-1 on Friday and 4-0 in series openers.

Since giving up seven runs in his first home start of the season – a 7-6 loss to the Reds – Gallardo is 3-1 with a 1.44 ERA in his last five at Miller Park, allowing a total of five earned runs in 31 1/3 innings. Also, he opened his 2009 season at San Francisco on April 8, giving up just two runs in 6 2/3 innings of a 4-2 victory, improving to 2-1 with a 5.63 ERA in three starts against the Giants.

The under is 5-2 in Cain’s last seven trips to the mound and 5-1 in his last six against winning teams. Also, Gallardo is on “under” rolls of 16-7 overall, 8-3-1 in series openers, 8-1 versus winning teams and 5-0 on Friday.

For San Francisco, the “under” is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 8-3-1 on the road, 8-2 on Friday, 4-1 against right-handed starters and 5-2 after a day off. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has topped the total in eight of its last 10 overall, but the under is 8-2-1 in its last 11 Friday contests and 6-1 in its last seven against the N.L. West. Conversely, the over is 21-7-2 in the last 30 Brewers-Giants battles overall and 10-2-2 in the last 14 clashes at Miller Park.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

INTERLEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (40-32) at N.Y. Mets (37-34)

Five days after getting pulled from a start because of an arm problem, Yankees ace CC Sabathia (6-4, 3.71) returns to the mound as he opposes Mike Pelfrey (5-2, 4.74) as the final Subway Series of the season begins at Citi Field.

The Yankees are coming off consecutive blowout wins in Atlanta by scores of 8-4 on Wednesday and 11-7 on Friday. Still, the Bronx Bombers are just 6-9 in their last 15 games overall, including dropping six of nine on the highway. Their current 3-5 funk has all come against teams from the N.L. East, and they’re 2-7 in their last nine games on the road against right-handed starters. However, Joe Girardi’s team has won six of its last seven on Friday.

The Mets and Johan Santana held off the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter 3-2 on Thursday afternoon for their second straight win. Although they took three of four from St. Louis, like their rivals from the Bronx, the Mets have been lacking consistency, going 9-13 in June, including 5-5 at home and 2-4 in their last six interleague games (all against the A.L. East). On the bright side, Jerry Manuel’s squad is on hot streaks of 9-1 on Friday, 16-5 in series openers and 18-8 at home versus southpaw starters.

The Yankees took two of three from the Mets two weekends ago at Yankee Stadium, including a 15-0 series-ending whitewash on June 14. The Yanks are 4-2 in the last six head-to-head clashes.

Sabathia was pulled with one out in the bottom of the second inning Sunday at Florida because of a biceps injury, and he gave up one run on three hits with the Yankees eventually falling 6-5. Prior to Sunday, the hefty lefty had pitched at least seven innings in eight consecutive starts, but with the loss in Florida, the Yankees are now just 2-4 in their ace’s last six outings.

Sabathia is 4-3 with a 3.44 ERA in eight road starts this season and 6-2 with a 2.49 ERA in eight nighttime contests. Also, in his only career start against the Mets back in 2004 when he was with Cleveland, Sabathia gave up just a run on six hits in eight innings, winning 9-1.

Pelfrey surrendered four runs on eight hits in five innings on Sunday, failing to get a decision in his team’s 10-6 home loss to Tampa Bay. Despite that subpar outing, the right-hander has still given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his last eight outings. Also, with Pelfrey pitching, the Mets remain on positive runs of 13-6 at home, 5-2 on Friday, 4-1 in interleague action, 9-3 in series openers and 7-2 in night starts this year.

Pelfrey is 2-0 with a 3.95 ERA in seven home starts this year, and in his lone career meeting against the Yankees exactly a year ago, he earned a 15-6 road win despite giving up four runs, eight hits and four walks in five innings.

With Pelfrey on the hill, the “over” is on stretches of 4-0 overall, 4-1 in interleague play, 9-4-1 at home and 4-0-1 on Friday.

The Yankees are riding a bunch of “under” streaks, including 6-3 overall, 7-3-1 on the highway, 14-5 in interleague play, 13-5 against the N.L. East, 5-1 on Friday and 5-2 when Sabathia pitches on the road. Also, the under is 6-1 in the Mets’ last six at home, 7-2 in the Mets’ last nine against left-handed starters and 36-16-2 in their last 58 Friday contests. Finally, the last four Subway Series meetings at old Shea Stadium stayed under the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER

Brandon Lang

Friday …
15 Dime Red Sox

5 Dime Giants

5 Dime Marlins

FREE – Detroit Tigers (see daily video for your analysis)