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Sunday 6-21 Service Plays
top dollar (GOLD MEMBER) 9 months ago
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11 responses
SPORTS ADVISORS
Milwaukee (37-31) at Detroit (37-31)
The leaders of the A.L. and N.L. Central Divisions wrap up their three-game series with a pair of aces on the mound, as the Tigers’ Justin Verlander (7-3, 3.39 ERA) opposes Yovani Gallardo (7-3, 2.93) at Comerica Park.
Detroit followed up Friday’s 10-4, rain-shortened victory with Saturday’s 9-5 rout, winning for the third straight game while scoring 25 runs in the process. Jim Leyland’s club carries positive streaks of 48-21 in interleague action, 39-13 in home interleague contests and 8-2 on Sunday, but it is still just 4-6 in its last 10 at home and 3-6 in its last nine at Comerica against right-handers.
Milwaukee has followed up a three-game sweep in Cleveland with the consecutive losses to the Tigers and is now 4-8 in its last 12 contests. Also, in interleague play, the Brew Crew is mired in slumps of 4-11 on the highway and 1-7 against right-handed starters.
These teams split six total meetings in 2006 and 2007, with the visitor going 4-2.
Detroit is 1-2 in Verlander’s last three starts, following a 7-1 run behind the 26-year-old. On Tuesday at St. Louis, the right-hander allowed five runs on eight hits and two walks in just four innings of an 11-2 loss. Prior to that, Verlander had thrown nine straight quality starts, going 7-0 with a 1.10 ERA.
Verlander is 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA in three home starts this year. And in his lone start against Milwaukee, he threw a complete-game shutout in a 4-0 home win two years ago. Detroit is 8-3 in Verlander’s last 11 starts overall and 5-1 in his last six home starts.
Milwaukee is 8-2 in Gallardo’s last 10 starts, including Tuesday’s 7-5 victory at Cleveland in which the right-hander allowed two runs on five hits with six walks and eight strikeouts. Gallardo has given up two earned runs or less in each of his last five starts, going 3-1 with a stifling 1.43 ERA. Gallardo is 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA in seven road starts this year, and this is his first meeting against Detroit.
With Gallardo starting, the Brewers are on runs of 5-0 against winning teams and 4-1 on the highway.
Although Saturday’s game easily went over the total, the Tigers sport nothing but “under” trends, including 21-11 overall, 10-4 at home, 8-4 against right-handed starters, 7-4 in interleague play and 5-0 in Verlander’s last five home starts. On the flip side, the over for Milwaukee is on runs of 6-0 overall (all against the A.L. Central and all on the road. However, with Gallardo pitching, the under is on streaks of 15-7 overall, 11-3 and 7-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
L.A. Dodgers (45-24) at L.A. Angels (36-30)
The Dodgers, with the best record in the majors, wrap up their three-game weekend set against the Angels by pitting left-hander Clayton Kershaw (3-5, 4.13 ERA) against veteran right-hander John Lackey (2-2, 6.10) in Anaheim.
The Dodgers halted their rivals seven-game winning streak with last night’s 6-2 victory, as veteran right-hander Jeff Weaver outdueled younger brother Jered Weaver. The Dodgers are now 12-5 in their last 17 road games, but they remain on interleague slides of 21-44 overall (6-5 this year) and 14-38 on the road (3-2 this year).
Although their winning streak ended Saturday, the Angels continue to sport positive streaks of 5-1 at home, 8-2 in interleague play this season (all against the N.L. West), 39-18 overall in interleague action and 19-8 versus the N.L. West.
The Angels have owned this rivalry lately, with runs of 13-6 overall (3-2 this season), 21-8 in Anaheim, 5-1 with Lackey starting against the Dodgers and 4-0 in Lackey’s last five against the Dodgers at home.
Lackey beat San Francisco 9-7 victory on Monday, allowing three runs on 10 hits with no walks and 10 strikeouts in seven innings. In his lone home start this season, Lackey lost 5-2 to Seattle on May 29. However, he’s 5-1 with a solid 1.50 ERA in nine career appearances (eight starts) against the Dodgers. On May 23, he got a no-decision at Dodger Stadium, allowing three runs in seven innings, with the Angels falling 5-4.
With Lackey taking the ball, the Angels are on runs of 17-5 in interleague play and 18-7 on Sunday, but they are also on skids of 4-10 overall and 0-4 at home.
Kershaw rebounded from two straight losses by leading the Dodgers to a 5-4 home win over Oakland on Tuesday, throwing 5 2/3 shutout innings as he worked four hits and three walks around 10 strikeouts, but he got a no-decision. The 21-year-old is 2-3 with an inflated 6.75 ERA in six road starts this season, and in his only career start against the Angels, he got a no-decision in a 3-1 defeat, giving up a run on four hits and four walks in five innings.
With Kershaw on the hill, the Dodgers are on slides of 1-4 against winning teams and 1-4 in interleague play, though they have won four of his last five Sunday starts.
The Dodgers are on “under” runs of 6-2 on the highway, 12-5 in interleague action, 38-16-3 in American League parks and 13-7 versus the N.L. West. Also, the under for the Angels is on stretches of 11-6 at home, 5-1 in Lackey’s last six home starts, 16-5-3 behind Lackey in interleague play and 7-1 with Lackey facing the Dodgers.
Finally, although the first two games of this weekend set have gone over the total, the under is still 9-6 in the last 15 meetings overall and 14-7-1 in the last 22 battles in Anaheim.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
281 – 184 run 60 % 28-14 run here
SUN Toronto Blue JaysEZWINNER’S FREE SELECTION
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals
(918) Kansas City Royals -$105
(Listing Meche and Wainwright)
Royals starting pitcher Gil Meche is pitching very
well. Meche has not allowed more than two earned
runs in six straight starts and is starting to look like
the ace of the Kansas City staff again. Meche has
also dominated interleague play, posting a
14-4 record. His .778 winning percentage against
the National League tops all active pitchers with at
least 20 starts and I look for him to pick up another
win here against the Cards. Play on the Royals.
2009 Free Selections Record 88-78 (53.0%)
MLB Computer Picks
Boston Red Sox -135
Minnesota Twins -130
New York Yankees -180
RatedPicks
Minn Twins -125
St Louis Cardinals -105
Oak A’s/ SD Padres OVER 7.5
Pitt Pirates +130
Larry Ness
LEGEND Play
The Weaver vs. Weaver matchup (Jeff vs Jered) didn’t last all that long last night, as neither made it through the sixth inning. It was the first time in seven years that siblings started against each other in the majors. However, older brother Jeff (5 IP / 6 hits 2 ERs) surely got the better of his younger brother, as Jered took the loss in a 6-4 Dodgers win (5.1 IP / 10 hits / 5 ERs). While the Dodgers continue to ‘roll’ (with or without Manny) at 45-24 (MLB’s best record), the win gave them just a 6-5 interleague mark in 2009. Actually, that’s pretty rarified air for LA, which had gone an abysmal 20-43 vs AL clubs from 2005-08. The Dodgers’ win last night in Anaheim makes them only 39-63 in AL parks since 1997, including 8-29 since 2005. The win also snapped the Angels’ seven-game winning streak, one in which they had outscored their opponents, 52-22. The Angels have gone through a lot this year (injuries in their starting rotation, the tragic death of promising young pitcher Nick Adenhart and key regulars missing time with injuries) but at 36-30, are now just a half-game out of first place in the AL West. The finale of this three-game series is set for tonight, on ESPN. Clayton Kershaw (3-5, 4.13 ERA) gets the starts for the Dodgers and John Lackey for the Angels. Kershaw was 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA last season in 22 appearances (21 starts) as a rookie. He didn’t get his first ML win until his 10th career start but Kershaw pitched OK for LA last season (team went 13-8 in his starts) and the Dodgers really like this guy. He’s got a 4.13 ERA in 13 starts this year and an impresiive hits (53) to innings pitched (69.2) ratio. However, he’s just 3-5 (team is 6-7) and he’s been WAY more effective at home, as opposed to on the road. He started in Dodger Stadium vs the Angels back on May 22 (5 IP / 4 hits / 1 ER), getting a no decision in a 3-1 Dodgers loss. However, it was a quality effort which is nothing new at home, where in seven starts Kershaw has a 1.91 ERA. In contrast, his road ERA is 6.75 in six road starts. That’s part of the Dodgers’ problem in this game. The other part of the problem is Angels starter John Lackey. Lackey opened the season on the DL and will take an unimpressive 2-2 record into tonight’s game, in seven starts. He’s allowed 52 hits in 38.1 innings (ouch!) and owns a 6.10 ERA. However, Lackey is coming off an excellent outing at San Francisco, in which he allowed three ERs in seven innings, with 10 strikeouts and no walks. That’s more like the pitcher who has gone 31-14 the previous two seasosn for the Angels, who went 38-19 in all of his starts these last two regular seasons. Lackey’s had oustanding success against the Dodgers in his career, going 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA in eight lifetime starts (Angels are 6-2) against them. That includes a 4-0 mark with a 0.33 ERA in four outings against the Dodgers (with 21 straight scoreless innings) here in Anaheim. The Angels are a ML-best 9-2 in interleague play this year and how about John Lackey’s record here in Anaheim in interleague play? Can it get any better? Lackey is 8-0 with a 2.00 ERA in 10 starts (Angels are 10-0) at home against NL clubs.
LEGEND Play 25* LA Angels
Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
3* Brewers at Tigers
Detroit is a terrific park for pitchers, a large outfield, and for this game BOTH teams have an ace on the hill. Milwaukee righty Yovani Gallardo is quietly having a great season, at 7-3 for the first place Brewers with a 2.93 ERA. He doesn’t walk anyone, is super-tough to hit and has 85 Ks in 83 innings. The Tiger offense has been slumping all season and needs to face a weak starter to get going, but that’s not the case here. Magglio Ordonez said on his benching this week, ‘It’s embarrassing.’ He is 35 and in the middle of a clearly miserable season at the plate, at least relative to Ordonez’s past skills, with just 11 extra-base hits and he has two home runs. It has been a baffling exhibition and it has been on display since Ordonez joined the Tigers full-time following March’s World Baseball Classic. At least they have ace Justin Verlander going, with a 2.57 ERA his last three starts, plus for the season he has 110 Ks in 90 innings. Look for a lot of strikeouts and few runs. Play the Brewers/Tigers Under the total.
Kiki Sports
2 Units Rangers Millwood
David Banks
Col. Rockies (BEST BET KEY PLAY)
Mill Brewers
Atl. Braves
Tor. Bluejays
Tex Rangers
LA Dodgers
Jim Feist
(911) TORONTO BLUE JAYS
(912) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Take “(912) WASHINGTON NATIONALS”
Break up the Nationals!!! This club made a big coaching change and now they have rattled off three straight winners as they headed into Saturday evening. Don’t get too excited though, the Nats are still dead last in the NL East, a mere 17 games back of Philly. However, there is some optimism in the nation’s capital as the Nationals look a bit better now. The Blue Jays are in that tough AL East with Boston and New York. Toss in last year’s champ, Tampa Bay, and it’s a tough division. In these NL park games the Blue Jays are hampered by the loss of the DH as well, which does change the way a team is coached. Rookie pitcher Ricky Romero starts for the Jays and he’s 3-3 on the year with a 3.73 era. Really there isn’t much to look at with this young lefty since he has only eight games in the majors. Nats starter Shairon Martis isn’t much more experience with just 18 major league games. Martis is 5-1 however, with a higher 4.76 era. But on this Nationals club, that’s a good era!! The Nats can get their pitchers runs and if Martis can keep the Jays somewhat in check here, this is another winner for Washington.
Dave Cokin
(903) MILWAUKEE BREWERS
(904) DETROIT TIGERS
Take “(904) DETROIT TIGERS”
Yovani Gallardo is tough as nails, and he’s not a guy anyone can feel comfortable trying to beat. But Gallardo has been putting up pretty high per inning pitch counts lately as he’s had a few control issues. Justin Verlander had a poor outing last start, but he’s been mostly sensational for the Tigers. Detroit is having a strong series against the Brewers, and I’ll have to back the Tigers today
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9 months ago top dollar (GOLD MEMBER) said ...
DUNKEL
LA Dodgers at LA Angels
The Angels are 8-2 in their last 10 interleague games versus teams with a winning record and look to take advantage of a Dodger club (45-24 SU) that is just 1-4 in Clayton Kershaw’s last 5 interleague starts. The Angels are the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120)
Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 16.139; Colorado (De La Rosa) 16.089
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+135); Over
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.550; Detroit (Verlander) 14.541
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+120); Over
Game 905-906: Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 14.114; Cincinnati (Harang) 14.591
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-130); Over
Game 907-908: Tampa Bay at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.299; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.078
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105); Under
Game 909-910: Atlanta at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.572; Boston (Wakefield) 15.278
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+130); Under
Game 911-912: Toronto at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.158; Washington (Martis) 16.381
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+110); Under
Game 913-914: Baltimore at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.772; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.457
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-185); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-185); Under
Game 915-916: Houston at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 15.082; Minnesota (Perkins) 15.959
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Over
Game 917-918: St. Louis at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 13.877; Kansas City (Meche) 13.922
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+105); Under
Game 919-920: Cleveland at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Sowers) 14.682; Cubs (Wells) 16.285
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-165); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-165); N/A
Game 921-922: Texas at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Millwood) 15.645; San Francisco (Zito) 14.636
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150); Under
Game 923-924: Oakland at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 14.148; San Diego (Correia) 14.368
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); Over
Game 925-926: Arizona at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 14.659; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.533
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-185); Under
Game 927-928: NY Yankees at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.279; Florida (Volstad) 16.369
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+170); Over
Game 929-930: LA Dodgers at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.889; LA Angels (Lackey) 17.131
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Over
WNBA
Seattle at Phoenix
The Storm take on the Mercury (5-1 SU) look to build on their 10-3 ATS record in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Seattle is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1 1/2)
Game 601-602: San Antonio at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 106.991; Connecticut 114.694
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 7 1/2; 137 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 10; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+10); Under
Game 603-604: New York at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: New York 108.380; Atlanta 113.925
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 150
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 148
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2); Over
Game 605-606: Detroit at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 114.402; Indiana 114.411
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 135
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5 1/2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+5 1/2); Under
Game 607-608: Seattle at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 115.709; Phoenix 113.324
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 2 1/2; 176
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 170
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1 1/2); Over
Game 609-610: Sacramento at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.244; Los Angeles 113.690
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 138 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4 1/2; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+4 1/2); Under