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Saturday 6-20 Service Plays
top dollar (GOLD MEMBER) about 1 year ago | 27 responses    

David Banks

MLB
4:10 TB Rays
7:05 Tor. Bluejays
7:10 FL Marlins BEST BET KEY PLAY
7:10 Bost. Redsox
7:10 Minn Twins
9:05 LA Angels

KBHoops

5* Kansas City +153 POD

BEN BURNS

9* Seattle Mariners

8* Rays/Mets Under

5* Cincinnati Reds

Maddux Sports

3 units on Toronto -116
3 units on Baltimore +149
3 units on San Diego +112

YANKEE CAPPER

MLB GUARANTEED GRAND SLAM
CHICAGO CUBS -165

MLB GUARANTEED GRAND SLAM
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS -160

MLB GUARANTEED GRAND SLAM
TORONTO BLUE JAYS -115

MLB GUARANTEED GRAND SLAM
ATLANTA/BOSTON OVER 8.5 (-115)

Wayne Root

Chairman – Milwaukee
Millionaire – Toronto
Billionaire – Florida

SportsOddsAndPicks

OVER 9 RUNS Cleveland at Chicago 1:05 p.m. ET
OVER 10 RUNS Milwaukee at Detroit 4 p.m. ET
SEATTLE -130 (with Vargas) over Arizona 10:10 p.m. ET

SPORTS ADVISORS

Milwaukee (37-30) at Detroit (36-31)

The Brewers send struggling right-hander Dave Bush back to the mound as they continue a three-game interleague series at Comerica Park against the Tigers, who are scheduled to hand the ball to Alfredo Figaro for his first big-league game.

Detroit pounded out a 10-4 victory in Friday’s opener, with the game shortened to seven innings because of rain. The Tigers have followed up a four-game slide with consecutive wins, scoring 16 runs along the way after failing to produce more than three runs in the previous eight contests. Jim Leyland’s club carries positive streaks of 46-21 in interleague action, 37-14 when hosting National League squads and 9-2 when playing on Saturday, but it still just 3-6 in its last nine at home.

Milwaukee’s modest three-game win streak came to a halt with Friday’s setback, but the Brewers have now scored 34 runs in their last four contests after tallying just 20 runs in the previous six (all at home). They’ve have won five of their last seven on the road overall and 20 of 27 against winning teams, but in interleague play, the Brew Crew is mired in slumps of 4-10 on the highway and 1-6 against right-handed starters.

These teams split six total meetings in 2006 and 2007, with the visitor going 4-2.

Bush is coming off by far his worst start of the season, as he gave up eight runs (all earned) in just 3 1/3 innings at Cleveland on Monday. He left trailing 8-3, but Milwaukee rallied back and prevailed 14-12. Bush has given up four runs or more in four of his last five starts, none of them quality outings. The veteran right-hander is 2-2 with a 5.89 ERA in six road starts this season.

The Brewers are now 8-3 in Bush’s last 11 starts overall and 5-1 in his last six Saturday outings, but they’re just 17-35 in his last 52 road starts. Also, Bush faced Detroit twice in 2005 when with Toronto, allowing a combined 11 runs (nine earned) in 7 1/3 innings (13.50 ERA), and the Tigers won both games.

Figaro makes his big-league debut after being recalled from Double-A Erie, where he went 5-2 with a 4.10 ERA in 11 games. With Erie, the right-hander recorded 59 strikeouts against just 17 walks in 68 innings.

For Milwaukee, the “over” is on runs of 4-0 overall (all against the A.L. Central) and 4-1 with Bush facing American League opponents. However, the under is 5-1 in Bush’s last six on the highway. Meanwhile, the Tigers sport nothing but “under” trends, including 21-9 overall, 10-2 at home, 22-8 against right-handed starters and 7-3 in interleague play. Finally, four of the last six clashes in this infrequent rivalry have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

L.A. Dodgers (44-24) at L.A. Angels (36-29)

The Dodgers and Angels resume their three-game Freeway Series at Angels Stadium in Anaheim, where a unique pitching matchup will be on display with brothers Jeff Weaver (4-1, 3.72) and Jered Weaver (7-2, 2.08) slated to square off for the first time in their major-league careers.

The Angels extended their winning streak to seven in a row – all against N.L. West clubs – with Friday’s come-from-behind 5-4 victory. The Halos, who have scored a total of 52 runs during their win streak, are now 8-1 in interleague play this season (all against the N.L. West). Mike Scioscia’s club is on further interleague hot streaks of 39-17 overall, 19-5 versus the West, 5-1 at home and 7-0 against right-handed starters.

The Dodgers continue to be dismal against the American League, as they’re now mired in interleague slumps of 20-44 overall, 14-38 in A.L. ballparks and 6-22 when facing right-handed starters on the road in interleague action. On the bright side, overall, Joe Torre’s troops remain on upticks of 42-21 overall, 11-5 on the road, 16-5 on Saturday and 5-2 against right-handed starters.

The Angels, who took two of three at Dodger Stadium last month, are 3-1 against their crosstown rivals this season, 13-5 in the last 18 meetings overall and 21-7 in the last 28 clashes in Anaheim.

Jeff Weaver has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen since his last start on May 20, when he held the Mets to a run on four hits in five innings, getting a no-decision as the Dodgers won, 2-1. Weaver is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts – going exactly five innings in each outing – and he’s 1-1 with an 11.12 ERA in four road appearances (one start), surrendering seven runs in 5 2/3 innings. Finally, he’s 5-8 with a 4.05 ERA in 16 career appearances (14 starts) against the Angels.

Jered Weaver continued to make a case for his first All-Star appearance as he tossed a complete-game shutout against the Padres on Sunday, allowing five hits and a walk in a 6-0 victory. The right-hander has given up exactly five runs in his last five starts covering 35 innings (1.29 ERA), going 4-0 with a no-decision that the Angels also won.

In addition to prevailing in each of Weaver’s last five starts overall, the Angels are 21-8 in his last 29 at home and 4-1 in his five starts against the Dodgers. This year at Angel Stadium, Weaver is 5-0 with a paltry 1.01 ERA (six earned runs allowed in 53 2/3 innings). He’s also 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA in those five career starts against the Dodgers, allowing two runs or fewer in all five games. That includes a 3-1 win at Dodger Stadium on May 22 when he yielded just one run and four hits in eight innings.

With Jeff Weaver starting, the “under” is on stretches of 5-2 overall and 5-0 in interleague play, while the under is 7-0-1 in his brother’s last eight starts overall, 6-0 in his last six at home, 4-0 in his last four interleague contests and 5-1 in his last six on Saturday.

The Dodgers are on “under” runs of 6-2 on the highway, 6-1 on Saturday, 12-5 in interleague action, 38-16-3 in American League parks and 13-7 versus the N.L. West. Also, the under is 11-6 in the Angels’ last 17 at home. Finally, the total has stayed low in nine of the last 14 meetings overall in this rivalry and is 9-4-1 in the last 14 battles in Anaheim.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER

DUNKEL

Tampa Bay at NY Mets

The Mets look to follow up last night’s win over the Rays and build on their 10-2 record in Johan Santana’s last 12 home starts when the total is set between 7 and 8 1/2. New York is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-120)

Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 16.145; Colorado (Hammel) 16.083
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+145); Under

Game 953-954: Cleveland at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Ohka) 14.732; Cubs (Lilly) 14.236
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-180); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+170); N/A

Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 14.926; Detroit (Figaro) 16.164
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-125); Under

Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Weaver) 16.328; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.692
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+160); Over

Game 959-960: Tampa Bay at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.188; NY Mets (Santana) 16.190
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-120); Over

Game 961-962: Toronto at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.255; Washington (Detwiler) 16.284
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+115); Under

Game 963-964: Baltimore at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Bergesen) 14.811; Philadelphia (Happ) 15.418
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-160); Under

Game 965-966: NY Yankees at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.444; Florida (Johnson) 15.203
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-115); Over

Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Richard) 14.046; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.659
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-170); Under

Game 969-970: Atlanta at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 15.734; Boston (Beckett) 15.116
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+160); Over

Game 971-972: St. Louis at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 13.899; Kansas City (Bannister) 14.300
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+160); Over

Game 973-974: Houston at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 15.613; Minnesota (Baker) 15.428
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+175); Under

Game 975-976: Texas at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 14.646; San Francisco (Cain) 15.635
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-175); Over

Game 977-978: Oakland at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 13.974; San Diego (Silva) 14.452
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Under

Game 979-980: Arizona at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Buckner) 15.049; Seattle (Vargas) 15.142
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-140); Over

WNBA

Chicago at Washington

The Mystics look to bounce back from yesterday’s loss at Atlanta and take advantage of a Chicago team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games overall. Washington is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4).

Game 651-652: Chicago at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 105.420; Washington 111.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 6 1/2; 155
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4); Over

Re: Saturday Service Plays
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Big Al McMordie

Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Over 8.5

At 7:10 pm our complimentary selection is on the Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox ‘over’ the total. Veteran starter Derek Lowe will be making a homecoming of sorts when he pitches this game in Fenway Park as it will be his first performance in that venue since he played a key role for Boston in its 2004 postseason march to its first World Series title in almost a century. It should be a very interesting return for Lowe because he comes into this game off his worst start of the season, an 11-2 drubbing which the Braves took at the hands of the Orioles back on June 14 when Lowe failed to make it out of the third inning. Since Lowe is a sinkerball specialist, it’s safe to say that his ball wasn’t sinking very effectively on that occasion and if he has the same problem tonight it will be an even shorter outing for him. He will face Josh Beckett who, like Lowe, has also had a successful season, but comes into this game off a very ineffective start against the Phillies in which he gave up six earned runs on 11 hits in just six innings. It was his first loss since April, but there’s no telling how Beckett will bounce back from that one. The Braves have beefed up the middle of their lineup in a big way when they acquired Nate McLouth from the Pittsburgh Pirates back on June 3 for three prospects. McLouth fills a big hole in the heart of the order and it is beginning to show for Atlanta on the scoreboard.

Craig Trapp

Chicago White Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds

Records

Chicago White Sox 31-36, 15-18 away (Richard 2-1, 3.76 ERA)

Cincinnati Reds 34-32, 17-15 home (Cueto (6-4, 2.17 ERA)

Betting Trends

-White Sox are 0-6 in Richards last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

-White Sox are 2-7 in their last 9 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.

-Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.

-Reds are 5-2 in Cuetos last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Pretty hard to back the CHW as they have just not been playing very good. On the other hand CIN has been playing very good at home. Lately the Reds have turned the home into some key wins going 3-1 in last 4. Today the Reds turn to there best pitchers by the numbers this year Cueto. Cueto has been dominant and when he doesn’t walk people he is unbeatable. Love the National League teams at home as the pitchers for the CHW are not used to hitting and taking the DL out of the lineup is a huge advantage to CIN. This one will be close early but the Reds will get a couple extra runs on CHW bullpen. SCORE CIN 5 – CHW 2

Red Dog Sports

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play Under 8.5

The two Weaver brothers face each other Saturday night. One has a 3.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and the other has an ERA of 1.23. The Dodgers have 12 unders and 4 overs in their last 16 interleague games and the Angels have 11 unders and 5 overs in their last 16 home games. There have been 9 unders and 4 overs in the last 13 meetings. Look for an under on Saturday!

Marc Lawrence

Play On: NY Mets w/Santana

the Mets and Rays meet in Game Two of this weekend series when New York sends ace left hander Johan Santana to the mound at Citi Field. Santana enters this afternoon’s contest with 11 wins in his last 14 team starts at home. He’s also 5-1 with a 2.30 ERA in his last six starts against Tampa Bay. With that, look for Santana to improve to 15-6 on Saturdays here today.

BRIAN HANSEN

Cleveland Indians at Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs

The Indians had yesterday’s game won until Cliff Lee turned it over to the Indians bullpen and they blew a 7-0 lead to lose in extra innings. The Indians won’t recover from that loss, especially having Ohka on the hill against Lilly. Ohka did pitch decent in his lone start, this week against St. Louis, but that was at home. He’ll find it much tougher today in Wrigley field. Lilly has pitched very well all season but especially strong in his last three starts posting a 1.27 ERA and a perfect 3-0 team start record. The Indians have no chance in this game. Cubs beat up the Tribe. Play on Chicago Cubs!

MTi Sports

Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are a perfect 15-0 THIS SEASON vs a team that has won at least their last two games—consider Boston.

Jeff Benton

Cleveland at CHI. CUBS

For Saturday’s free play, we’ll back the Cubs on the run line -1½ runs against the Indians.

Usually, I downplay momentum in baseball, simply because the season is so long and starting pitching is such a big factor day in and day out. But this is one case where I can’t ignore momentum. First off the Cubs are coming off back-to-back miraculous – possibly season-changing – victories. On Friday, they went to the bottom of the eighth inning trailing the White Sox 5-1, only to rally for a 6-5 walk-off win. Then yesterday, Chicago fell behind the Indians 7-0 after four innings and trailed 7-2 in the bottom of the eighth, only to come back again to tie the game in the ninth and win it 8-7 in the 10th, beating up on Cleveland’s god-awful relief staff.

In fact, yesterday marked the second time this week that Cleveland has squandered a huge lead in the latter innings. Back on Monday, the Indians’ bullpen was handed a 12-7 lead in the seventh inning at home against the Brewers, but that lead vanished when Milwaukee scored a run in the seventh and six in the eighth to steal a 14-12 victory.

Cleveland has now dropped four straight games, all to N.L. Central squads, allowing a whopping 38 runs in the process (the majority given up by the relievers).

As for this pitching matchup, Chicago has a huge edge. Ted Lilly is 7-4 with a 2.94 ERA overall and 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA at home, with the Cubs winning five of his six home starts. In his last four trips to the bump, Lilly has surrendered a total of four earned runs in 28 1/3 innings (1.27 ERA) with a 22-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Meanwhile, Cleveland is handing the ball to journeyman right-hander Toma Ohka, who made his first start in two years a week ago and pitched very well against the Cardinals. However, Ohka doesn’t figure to go much longer than six innings in this contest, which, of course, brings the crappy Indians bullpen – which now has more blown saves (13) than saves (12) – back into play.

Throw in the fact that the Cubs are 19-7 in Lilly’s last 26 starts and 4-0 in his last four interleague outings, while the Tribe have now dropped 11 of their last 14 in National League parks, and this has blowout written all over it. Lay the run line with Chicago.

4♦ CUBS -1½

Sports Gambling Hotline

Tampa Bay at NY METS -120

Our FREE play run is at 11-5 the last 16 days!

Late afternoon action today, and it is funny how one terrible start can get you some solid value the next time out. That happens to be the case today as Johan Santana comes off his worst start in recent memory, and will now face a Tampa Bay team that is stuggling mightily with the road, and interleague play.

The Rays are just 14-22 away from home this year, and they come into this game having lost their last 3 on the highway. Not only that, but starter James Shields is just 1-3 on the road with a 4.15 ERA.

The Mets can counter with the win to open the weekend series last night, a 19-11 home mark, and Santana’s 5-1 mark at CitiField where his ERA is a scant 2.14.

At this cheap of a price, we are definitely willing to give Johan a chance at remdemtion!

Play on the Metropolitans to send the Rays to loss # 4 in a row.

2♦ NY METS

Dominic Fazzini

Toronto -110 at WASHINGTON

The Nationals are playing as well as they have all season, riding a three-game winning streak, which matches a season high. Their most recent victory, 2-1 over the Blue Jays in 11 innings Friday, follows two road wins over the mighty Yankees, so the lowly Nats have to be feeling pretty good about themselves right now.

Washington even has a little luck on its side today, as the team gets to miss Toronto ace Roy Halladay, and instead face rookie left-hander Brett Cecil, who was just called up from Triple-A Las Vegas.

That might not be to the Nationals’ advantage, however. Washington has the majors’ worst record against southpaws this year, at 5-13. And the 22-year-old Cecil wasn’t that bad during a stint with Toronto earlier this year, going 2-1 with a 4.38 ERA in four starts.

The Nationals have a rookie lefty of their own taking the mound today, Ross Detwiler (0-3, 5.23 ERA), who is still looking for his first major league win. In facing a potent Toronto offense, which is second in the majors in batting at .280, he’s going to have to look a little longer for that initial victory. Take the Blue Jays to bring the Nats back down to earth.

2♦ TORONTO

Karl Garrett

NY Yankees -115 at FLORIDA

Tonight in baseball, I am all about the Yankees as the small road favorite over the Marlins.

I know Jason Johnson is a righteous 6-1 with a 2.76 ERA this season, and is fresh off a complete game win over the Blue Jays, but the New York bats certainly seemed to take to the Miami weather last night as the smacked 13-hits en-route to the 5-1 win over the Marlins.

The Marlins have now dropped 3 of their last 4, and that mark will drop to 4 of their last 5 after they get done watching AJ Burnett make them look like chumps at the plate.

Burnett finally turned in a performance worthy of his new contract, as he worked 7 scoreless frames against the Mets his last time out, and remember this is where he used to do mound work when he broke into the bigs, so it should be a “special” start for him.

Also remember Joe Girardi knows a thing or two about this ballpark, and after his messy exit from the Marlins a few season’s ago, you can assume he wants to stick it you know where to the Marlins’ front office.

G-Man on the Yankees in this one.

5♦ NY YANKEES

Bobby Maxwell

St. Louis at KANSAS CITY

Gave you a FREE winner with the Tigers on Friday night and we’re doing it again today as we go with the Cardinals on the RUNLINE at Kansas City against the Royals.

Now this is a rivalry as these two cities and fans and teams just don’t like each other. We’re playing the Cardinals on the runline tonight behind veteran Chris Carpenter (4-1, 1.59 ERA).

Carpenter has come back nicely this season and he’s been able to go at least six innings in each of his last five starts. He has held the opposition to three runs or less in every outing this season and even has a complete-game under his belt on May 30 when he held the Reds to one run on three hits in a 3-1 victory.

The Cardinals got an easy 10-5 win on Friday night and they’ve won three of four from the Royals this season and five of the last six meetings between these two squads.

St. Louis is on runs of 8-2 against American League right-handers and 8-1 in the last nine times they’ve played the second game of a series. With Carpenter on the mound, the Cards are on runs of 78-32 overall, 20-6 in the second game of a series and 28-10 against teams with a losing record.

Brian Bannister (5-3, 4.10 ERA) is on the mound for the Royals. He looked good against the Reds on Sunday, allowing just one run on four hits in eight innings of a 7-1 victory. And when he faced the Cardinals in May he gave up two runs in six innings and the Royals got a 3-2 win. In his career, Bannister is 3-1 in four starts against the Cards with a 4.01 ERA in 24.2 innings of work.

St. Louis will get an easy win in Kansas City in this one. Carpenter is looking very sharp, so play the Cardinals.

2♦ ST. LOUIS -1½

DAVE COKIN

TORONTO BLUE JAYS / WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Take TORONTO BLUE JAYS

The Nationals are red hot? Well, at least by their standards, as they’ve managed to win three in a row. There are a few positives on this team of late, certainly due in part to the improved pitching since Randy St. Clair took over the coaching duties. But I’ll look for the streak to end here. Brett Cecil has been called back up for the Blue Jays, and I think his deceptive slider will cause problems for the Nats hitters. Ross Detwiler is another talented lefty, but he may not fare as well with the Toronto lineup. I’ll lean the Blue Jays way tonight.

JIM FEIST

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS / SEATTLE MARINERS
Take SEATTLE MARINERS

The Mariners are also still trying to take a stab at .500 and sit only 5 1/2 games out of the division lead. The Mariners have six guys on their 25-man roster who were fruits of that trade: Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, Mike Carp, Ronny Cedeno, Garrett Olson and Jason Vargas. Vargas goes here, a guy with a 3.56 ERA who doesn’t walk anyone. Arizona can’t hit and young starter Billy Buckner has been terrible, with a 7.36 ERA. A great spot for the home team. Play the Mariners.

Tony Weston

Today’s Selection:

Tough loss yesterday as the Dodgers couldn’t do enough to get the win. That’s fine because we’re coming through with a strong winner today as we’re taking the Mets at home against the visiting Rays.

In Game 1 of this series last night the Mets got over with a solid 5-3 victory to hand Tampa its third straight loss.

Including last night’s win, the Mets are now 19-11 at home this season and are 13-5 their last 18 games in front of the home fans.

On the other side, the Rays are just 14-22 on the road this season and have only 1 win their last 6 road games. Going back a little further, Tampa only has 2 wins its last 12 games away from The Trop.

The Rays will continue their losing ways on the road as the Mets get over in this one. Take the Mets at home in Game 2 of this series.

3♦ METS

Freddy Wills

New York Yankees vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins

The line opened with 76% of the public still on the Yankees as they opened being favorites at -110 yet the line moved to the Marlins being the favorites this morning at -107 in many places. Normally I’d be taking the under here based on that movement, but to be honest I just can not fathom taking the under with the Yankees home or away. A-ROD will be out again today for rest and I think the Marlins have an excellent shot at winning this game out right!

Yankees have never faced the RHP and they have not hit RHP as well as LHP. Johnson 6-1 with a 1.07WHIP and 2.76ERA on the season owns a 3-1 record at home with a 2.02 ERA and an amazing 55:10 K:BB ratio. Night ball he owns a 1.80 ERA he just loves pitching at night and against NY as you may know he has dominated the Metsis over his career! Yankees L5 .264 and 3.20 runs per 9 last 5 will have Burnett going on the mound.

Burnett won’t have the confidence and comfort of a large lead like he did in his last game with another solid pitcher on the other mound. In his last outing 7IP 0ER vs. Mets the Yankees went on to win 15-0. Burnett who has pitched well in June has struggled on the road 5.19ERA in 6GS. Only Wes Helms has had any time against Burnett, but Helms is a crafty veteran that should be able to give the rest of the team some tips. He is 3-7 with a HR vs. Burnett.

Notables: Marlins are 11-3 with Johnson on the mound this year and 13-3 in his last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 22-6 in the last 28 games he has started. Kellogg behind the plate seems to have a spot in his heart or something for the Marlins as the Marlins are 18-4 the last 22 games he’s been there… but probably just coincidence.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Seattle Mariners -140

We’ll take the team with the better record at home behind the better pitching staff. The M’s send Vargas to the hill and are 3-0 in his home starts this season, in which he has posted an ERA of 2.04. Plus, the M’s bullpen has been sensational with an ERA of just 2.32 in home games. With last night’s loss, the D-backs have dropped 5 straight to the Mariners and those struggles will likely continue against the lefty Vargas as the Diamondbacks are just 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the M’s at home tonight.

Drew Gordon

Tampa Bay +105 at NY METS

Now on a 18-6 roll with the plays I’m giving away. For tonight’s complimentary play, we’re looking at the Tampa Bay/NY Mets match-up.

I know plenty of bettors are expecting the Johan Santana bounce back here, but not so fast! Not only has Santana been anything but reliable of late, but he’s up against an excellent Rays offense, that also happens to have their ace on the hill in this one. Read on…

Critics of this play will argue that James Shields ERA is higher on the road, and therefore, this a fade spot. Hold your horses boys, as his 4.15 ERA away isn’t terrible, and the fact he’s 1-1 with a 3.48 ERA over his last 3 is tough to ignore, especially when compared to Santana. No doubt, I’ll take the more consistent Shields over Santana at this point.

Speaking of Santana, he’s now 4-2 with a disgusting 6.50 ERA over his last 6 starts! I can understand a poor road effort, but prior to his getting rocked by the Yankees, he got smashed for 5 runs on 8 hits over 7 innings by the Phillies… Not a good sign, if you ask me, especially considering the Rays proficiency at hitting lefties on the road.

When I say the Rays hit lefties on the road well, I mean it, averaging 5.9 runs per game, batting an impressive .301 in the process! Mets average a far less potent 4.5 runs per game against righties at home, and you can rest-assured their injury-riddled lineup is going to have their hands full with Shields in this one. Not only that, but the fact the Mets’ bullpen has been a veritable gascan of late cannot be ignored, posting a 7.27 ERA over their L3 games! In the end, Mets-backers are expecting a Santana bounce back here, but I say you’re going to have to wait a bit longer. Rays roll!

Take Tampa Bay behind Shields over the NY Mets and Santana in this MLB match up.

2♦ TAMPA BAY

DUNKEL

Tampa Bay at NY Mets

The Mets look to follow up last night’s win over the Rays and build on their 10-2 record in Johan Santana’s last 12 home starts when the total is set between 7 and 8 1/2. New York is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-120)

Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 16.145; Colorado (Hammel) 16.083
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+145); Under

Game 953-954: Cleveland at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Ohka) 14.732; Cubs (Lilly) 14.236
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-180); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+170); N/A

Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 14.926; Detroit (Figaro) 16.164
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-125); Under

Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Weaver) 16.328; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.692
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+160); Over

Game 959-960: Tampa Bay at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.188; NY Mets (Santana) 16.190
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-120); Over

Game 961-962: Toronto at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.255; Washington (Detwiler) 16.284
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+115); Under

Game 963-964: Baltimore at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Bergesen) 14.811; Philadelphia (Happ) 15.418
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-160); Under

Game 965-966: NY Yankees at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.444; Florida (Johnson) 15.203
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-115); Over

Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Richard) 14.046; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.659
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-170); Under

Game 969-970: Atlanta at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 15.734; Boston (Beckett) 15.116
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+160); Over

Game 971-972: St. Louis at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 13.899; Kansas City (Bannister) 14.300
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+160); Over

Game 973-974: Houston at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 15.613; Minnesota (Baker) 15.428
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+175); Under

Game 975-976: Texas at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 14.646; San Francisco (Cain) 15.635
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-175); Over

Game 977-978: Oakland at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 13.974; San Diego (Silva) 14.452
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Under

Game 979-980: Arizona at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Buckner) 15.049; Seattle (Vargas) 15.142
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-140); Over

WNBA

Chicago at Washington

The Mystics look to bounce back from yesterday’s loss at Atlanta and take advantage of a Chicago team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games overall. Washington is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4).

Game 651-652: Chicago at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 105.420; Washington 111.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 6 1/2; 155
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4); Over