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Ben Burns
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Prediction: Under
Better late than never! It’s true. Detroit finally pulled the plug on General Manager Matt Millen’s brutal and seemingly never-ending career. Millen’s final record as president and CEO of the Lions was an awful 31-84. The Lions were 9-7 the year before he arrived and they were never better than 7-9 with him.
For now, Rod Marinelli remains the coach. When he was asked why he thinks he and his staff are the right people to coach the Lions, Marinelli responded: “I just know what I want. I see it. I just stay the course. I just keep working at it, keep evaluating what we’re doing, how we’re doing. I’ve been in these situations before. Like I’ve said, the two words – poise and panic. I believe in what I’m doing.”
What Marinelli “believes in” is running the ball and controlling the clock. The Lions haven’t been able to do that so far this year though, as they’ve fallen behind in each of their first three games. With Millen finally out of the picture and having had an extra week to prepare, I expect them to be more competitive this week though. If so, that will mean that they won’t have to abandon the running game. Note that the last time the Lions faced the Bears (10/28/07) the teams combined for just 23 points. The Lions ran the ball effectively in that game (28- 119) and held the ball for more than 34 minutes.
This week, the Lions will face a Chicago defense which is usually very tough to run against. Note that the Bears limited the Eagles to six second half points in their most recent game, while scoring only three themselves. Additionally, note that Chicago has allowed an average of just 16.5 points in it’s first two road games, both of which stayed below the total. Looking back to last season and we find that six of Chicago’s last seven road games have produced fewer than 43 combined points.
It’s true that the Lions have been poor on defense. Indeed, through the first three weeks, they had given up 113 points. Only the Rams (at 116) had given up more. That has helped cause their over/under numbers to be extremely generous though. They struggled again defensively in their most recent game. That game (vs. SF on 9/21) still finished below the total though, due largely to the fact that the number was so high. I successfully played on the ‘under’ in that game and I believe that this week’s number is extremely generous once again.
The ‘under’ was 2-0 the last two seasons when the Lions were coming off a bye. The ‘under’ is also a profitable 11-5-1 the last 17 meetings in this series, which were played here at Detroit. Consider the UNDER
Totals 4 U
Buccaneers @ Broncos
Tampa Bay (3-1) tallied its third consecutive victory with a 30-21 win over the Packers last week at the Disney ride that is Raymond James Stadium, controlling the ball for 36:50 while forcing 4 turnovers and topping Green Bay 327 yards to 181. The Buccaneers’ line is young with only 6’3� 291 C Jeff Faine entering 2008 with more than a pair of NFL seasons under his belt but trap and pull extremely well, consistently keeping opponents off balance long enough for the running back duo of 5’9� 225 Ernest Graham (57 for 334 yards and 2 TD) and 5’9� 180 Warrick Dunn (42 for 97 and TD rushing, 10 for 82 receiving) to slip and slide for a ground attack that has averaged133.8 yards per game at a brisk 5.0 yard per carry clip. RG Davin Joseph has been battling through a foot injury but has practiced and his unit has given 6’3� 214 QB Brian Griese (71 of 128 for 716 yards, 4 TD, 6 INT) the time with just 4 sacks allowed through 4 games to get the ball down field to receivers 6’1� 205 Antonio Bryant (17 for 220 yards), 5’11� 210 Ike Hilliard (18 for 264 and 2 TD), and 6’4� 215 Michael Clayton (9 for 88) but his accuracy has been spotty at best so – especially with Galloway still sidelined with a foot injury – expect Offensive Coordinator Bill Muir to continue to rely on Tampa’s tight ends in the mid-range. When the running game is working, the trio of 6’4� 258 Alex Smith (9 for 98 and TD), 6’7� 260 Jeremy Stevens (5 for 61 and TD), and 6’5� 257 John Gilmore (4 for 53 and TD) create major match up problems in multiple tight end sets and are the guys you must focus on in the red zone.
Defensive Coordinator Monte Kiffen’s unit has been superb this season in all facets of the game, including posting 3 defensive scores off their 8 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries. Starting ends Kevin Carter (10 T, 2 ½ S) and Gaines Adams (8 T, 3 S, INT) have been sharp against the run and in pass rush but the beauty of this line is found in the middle where a pair of underrated players, 6’2� 296 LT Chris Hovan (18 T) and 6’2� 285 RT Jovan Haye (10 T), gobble up blockers as well as bigger men and use their quickness to split their gaps. Hovan, who was little more than an undersized clown early in his career, has matured into one heck of a pro and keep your eye out for rush specialist 6’3� 268 DE Greg White (10 T, 3 ½ S) who has proved himself invaluable in substitution for the 13-year veteran Carter. By the numbers, the Buccaneers allow 98.0 rush yards per game at 3.6 yards per carry plus 216.5 yards passing at 7.2 yards per attempt and by the plays made, 6’2� 241 4th-year MLB Barrett Ruud (30 T, S, 2 INT) is clearly the heart of this stopper group. 14th-year WLB Derrick Brooks (13 T, FF, INT) is slowing down and currently fighting a hamstring injury while SLB Cato June (17 T) has been playing below his best and Ruud brings a ton of energy and has shown good ball skills, snaring picks over his shoulders where other players may get bat-downs. To beat this crew, you’ve got to keep your quarterback upright (11 sacks) long enough to go after this defensive backfield. 5’11� 186 LCB Phillip Buchanon (14 T, INT) and 12th-year 5’10� 184 RCB Ronde Barber (17 T, S) can be pushed around while safeties 6’0� 200 Tanard Jackson (14 T) and 6’2� 200 Jermaine Phillips (16 T, FR) are only average. When he’s ready, 6’1� 206 rookie CB Aquib Talib (4 T, INT) will certainly get his shot at one of these jobs. Tampa’s not an elite team but they’ll grind opponents into consistently playing below their abilities.
Denver (3-1) was stunned by the Chiefs last week in a 19-33 loss in which the Broncos allowed Larry Johnson to run over them for 198 yards and his team to better than double their totals points on the season while earning their first victory in 11 months. Of course, for Defensive Coordinator Bob Slowik’s squad this isn’t anything new. Denver’s stoppers have picked up right where they left off in 2007. So far in 2008, they rank 29th in points (29.2) and 30th in yards (408.8) allowed per game while ranking 24th against the run (132.8 yards per game at 5.0 yards per carry) and 31st against the pass (276.0 yards per game at 8.4 yards per attempt). On the good news front, 6’1� 308 Dewayne Robertson has been fully participating in practice and should be back at left defensive tackle where Kenny Peterson (7 T, 2 S) has been holding his place but now 6’4� 260 LDE John Engelberger (14 T, S) is missing practice time with a knee injury which may push under-achieving Ebenezer Ekuban into the starting role while 5’11� 260 starting RE Elvis Dumervil…just…plain…sucks. Two totals tackles (never mind the bloated figures for all players according to the team) through 4 starts without a single sack for a guy that gets thrown around against the run is not good. WLB DJ Williams (34 T, S) and MLB Nate Webster (30 T) are good players trying to wade through the wash while 6’3� 232 SLB Boss Bailey (23 T) has been less than 100% with a nagging ankle issue and Denver’s secondary is aging fast. Safeties Marquand Manuel (25 T) and Marlon McCree (15 T) are decent but 6’0� 192 10th-year LCB Champ Bailey (16 T, INT) and 5’10� 188 10th-year RCB Dre Bly (20 T) have never been big on contact and need help if the front 7 doesn’t get more pressure than the current level of 2 amassed team sacks.
As porous as the Bronco defense has been, Offensive Coordinator Rick Dennison’s crew has been explosive. Aside from the out-of-character 3 interception performance against the Chiefs, 6’3� 233 QB Jay Cutler (102 of 157 for 1275 yards, 9 TD, 4 INT) has been shelling defenses to his young receivers 6’4� 230 Brandon Marshall (31 for 398 yards and 3 TD) and 5’10� 182 rookie Eddie Royal (27 for 298 and 2 TD, 16.6 yards per punt return) with veteran Brandon Stokley (15 for 181) doing the dirty work in the slot. Give safety help and Denver will shred you with dynamite depth at the tight end position. Nate Jackson (4 for 12 yards and TD) and Daniel Graham (6 for 72) are solid performers but 6’5� 250 3rd-year TE Anthony Scheffler is breaking out as a serious weapon, racking up 194 yards with his 12 catches and adding 3 scores. With Tom Nalen on the IR, Mike Shanahan’s offensive line has been a mix and match affair but the squad of 6’6� 325 rookie LT Ryan Clady, LG Ben Hamilton, C Casey Weigmann, RG Chris Kuper, and RT Ryan Harris has acquitted themselves reasonably well in pass protection with 6 sacks surrendered over some 170 drop-backs and have pounded out the holes for running backs 5’11� 215 Selvin Young (37 for 228 yards and TD), 5’10� 212 Andre Hall (27 for 131), and 6’0� 225 Michael Pittman (23 for 80 and 4 TD rushing, 3 for 53 receiving) to thrive. The Broncos attack is among the leagues best, ranking 2nd in points (33.2) and 1st in yards (435.5) per game while holding the NFL’s 2nd-best passing offense at 314.2 yards per game at a whopping 8.1 yards per attempt.
SELECTION: So just how many points could the Broncos’ offense rack up against the Broncos’ defense? Alas, we’ll never find out but we think they can make some hay with Scheffler, Marshall, and Royal against the Buccaneers’ secondary. Shanahan at Mile High is a tough task and we just don’t think Tampa’s conservative offensive can properly expose Slowik’s defense. Take Denver –3!
Nevada Sharpshooter
New England vs San Francisco
The New England Patriots travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. The 2-2 49ers have a new look with QB JT O’Sullivan and OC Mike Martz. In the upcoming game vs. the Patriots the 49ers need to take some lessons from the Dolphins on how to play the Pats. One player to watch will be Frank Gore and how many touches he is given by the pass happy Martz.
The Patriots are coming off a much needed by after being humiliated by the Dolphins. QB Cassell will have an opportunity in the passing game against a 49er secondary that was unable to stop New Orleans last week. If the Pats can move the ball through the air in the first half, they should have success running the ball in the second.
The blueprints for beating the Patriots are now public, attack their defense with the running game and defensively take away the run and short passes, daring Cassell to go deep. The Patriots on the other hand need to get the deep passing game going in order to free up the underneath routes and running game. With a week to prepare I like the Patriots to have found at least a short term solution to their problems and come away with a win by at least 7. Take the Patriots -3.5 over the 49ers.
Mike Wynn Sports
Washington @ Philadelphia
Who’d of thunk that the Redskins would be 3-1 and sitting in the second spot of the NFC East after their opening night debacle against the NY Giants. Washington is coming off 3 straight wins including the big upset of Dallas in big “D� Sunday. The Eagles off a frustrating Sunday night loss at Chicago in which they missed 2 field goals and failed to punch it in from point blank late in the game. Despite this loss the Eagles are from out of any race at this point of the season and a win here over a divisional opponent would be big. So let’s take a closer look at both these teams and we’ll start as always with the visiting Redskins.
Washington has won 3 straight games and a lot of the credit has to go to the maturation Jason Campbell. Campbell looks like he has command of this Jim Zorn offense and his confidence and demeanor on the field have his teammates believing they can win with this guy at the helm. Campbell is completed 65% of his passes, but more importantly his 6 touchdowns without an interception. He’s making the right choices and delivering the ball and defenses can no longer key on Clinton Portis and the running game. Speaking of the running game, Clinton Portis is having a nice season. Portis is averaging a solid 4.3 yards per carry this season, and that’s good news for Washington if they can keep him healthy for 16 games. Defensively the Redskins have been OK ranking fourteenth in the league overall. They did do a terrific job Sunday against the Cowboys as their banged up secondary (no Springs or Smoot in the fourth quarter) kept Dallas out of the end zone until the final two minutes. First year head coach Jim Zorn has his team believing in his system right now and their going to be a contender this season despite playing in the toughest division in all of football.
The Eagles come into this one off a Sunday night game that they probably felt they should have won. Usually reliable kicker David Akers missed two field goals and the Eagles failed to get in the end zone from 1 yard out twice with 5 minutes remaining. Starting RB Westbrook sat out Sunday night and is once again questionable for this match up Sunday, and that’ll be a huge loss for the Eagle’s if he can’t go. Buckhalter is a solid back up but he’s no Westbrook and without that big threat out of the backfield, Washington can expect a lot of pass from McNabb and company. Unlike recent seasons McNabb has more weapons to go to this season. Rookie WR Jackson looks like he’s going to be a good one, and third year man Baskett is solid on the other side. McNabb is still nursing a chest contusion he sustained against Pittsburgh, but he’s a warrior and will definitely play in this one. McNabb the heart and soul of this Eagles team already has 1100 yards passing this season with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Defensively Jim Johnson’s unit can bring it. Eagles have the number 3 defense in the league and they’re number 1 against the run allowing just 54 yards per game on the ground. Philadelphia has forced 10 turnovers already this season and they’ve sacked the opposing QB 17 times.
Looking at some of the history and trends in this series we find that it’s been fairly close, as they’ve split their last 6 games straight up with the Redskins holding a slight 3-2-1 ATS edge. 20 of the last 31 in this series have gone under the total including the last 2 in Philadelphia where the Eagles are a terrific 24-7 under in October since 1992. Philadelphia is also a solid 17-7 under in the favorite role while Washington is 1-5 under as a road dog of 3½-7 points the last 3 seasons. With Westbrook iffy for this game Sunday it’s tough to go with a side here, but we’ll look for this one to follow the trends and stay under the total of 43.
Razor Sharp Sports
Tennessee @ Baltimore
Wow, I guess it is try what they say, “Any Given Sunday!� Last week we saw 2 huge upsets with 0-3 KC knocking off 3-0 Denver and the 3-0 Cowboys getting beat at home by rival Washington. All season long we will continue to see upsets as we do every year. It the match-up that we are going to talk about this week, I don’t think anyone would truly call it an upset if either team came up with the victory. Both the Tennessee Titans and the Baltimore Ravens are pretty good football teams. As a matter of fact, I expect both of these teams to be right in the playoff hunt in the AFC all season long. This may be the most up in the air season that we have seen in a long time. Right now there is no real #1 in either conference. So lets take a look at both of these teams a bit.
First we will start with the 4-0 Titans. Tennessee is one of only 3 teams remaining undefeated. How have they done it? Their defense unit is one of the best in football and their offense is one of the most underrated. Defensively, the group up front is one of the best! Albert Hayneworth (5 sacks) , Jevon Kearse (1.5 sacks) , Kyle Vanden Bosch (3 sacks), and Tony Brown (3.5 sacks) can do it against the run or the pass. Plus behind them, LB Keith Bullock is everywhere and DB Cortland Finnegan (4 ints.) and S Michael Griffin (3 ints) are patrolling the defensive backfield. This unit is allowing just 11.5 points per game (leading the league), 263 yards per game (3rd in the AFC), had 16 turnovers (1st in the league) & 15 sacks (2nd overall). On offense, Kerry Collins stepped in for an injured Steve McNair in week one and had the offense clicking. The offense is scoring 25.5 points per game. The running back tandem of Chris Johnson and LenDale White make up the perfect Thunder & Lightning combination. Johnson has 337 rushing yards and 2 scores and White has 161 yards and 5 TDs. Through the air, Collins has plenty to throw to. Collins spreads things around to plenty of weapons. They have 6 different recievers that have caught the ball at least 5 times this year. No one has more than 13 catches and no one has more than 1 receiving TD. Special teams has also been solid. Kicker Rob Bironas is 6 for 6 in FGs and 11 for 11 in extra points. Punter Craig Hentrich is averaging 44.7 yards per punt with 8 punts inside the 20. Returnman Chris Carr has done a good job on both kickoffs (27.1 yd/return) and punts (10.6).
On the other side of the field, we have the 2-1 Baltimore Ravens. When you talk about the Ravens you have to talk about the defense first. The names are all still there (Ray Lewis (22 tackles) , Ed Reed (1 int. for TD), Chris McAlister (2 ints), & Terell Suggs (3 sacks). This unit ranks 1st in the NFL in yards allowed at 186.7. They are 2nd behind Tennessee in points allowed at 14.3 and they are 1st versus the pass and 2nd against the run! The offense has a few questions, but they are quickly being answered. Question #1 is at QB. Rookie Joe Flacco has taken over the starting job and has done a pretty nice job so far. He hasn’t been flashy, but with a defense like the Ravens have, he just needs to be solid and not turn the ball over. RB Willis McGahee has been banged up all year. Bowling Ball LeRon McClain (215 yards & 3 TDs) has filled in for McGahee and shown some good power. Veteran WR Derrick Mason looks to be Flacco’s favorite target. He has 16 catches for 223 yards including 8 catches for 137 yards last week against Pittsburgh.
So you put all the numbers together and you have to look for a defensive struggle, right? Well the total is only 35 and if you look at what has happened so far, I expect this one to get over that total. The Ravens are scoring 21.7 points per game and their games average 36. The Titans as we mentioned before score over 25 points per game and their games are averaging 37 points per game. Both teams have defenses and special teams that can and will score even if the offenses struggle. As your free winner take the Tennessee/Baltimore game OVER the total of 35.Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2008, 09:05:47 PM »
Doc’s
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals
PICK: Over 44.5 Belmont
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2008, 09:09:45 PM »
Info Plays
3* on San Francisco 49ers +3
Reasons why the 49ers will cover the spread Sunday:
1.) New England is getting too much credit here. How can the Patriots possibly be favored after getting their asses handed to them last game 38-13 at home by the Dolphins of all teams? Miami ran wild on the Patriots, and we expect Frank Gore and company will be able to do the same Sunday against this elder defense. New England simply isn’t the same team that made the Super Bowl last year, not only offensively but defensively, too.
2.) No Tom Brady. Matt Cassel has done nothing to impress us this season. He is no Tom Brady, and the fact is that this offense can’t be run like it’s supposed to be with Cassel at quarterback. An injury to RB Lawrence Maroney puts even more pressure on Cassel to make plays with his arm. The Patriots are scoring just 16.3 points/game this season. They really haven’t even played a good defense, either. New England has faced the Chiefs, Dolphins and Jets. Any team in the league would love to go up against those three defenses, but the Patriots have yet to score more than 19 points in a single game. The 49ers have a better defense than all three of those squads.
3.) We’ll Play On – Underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) – with a good offense – averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after being outgained by opponents by 100 or more total yards last game. This is a 68-36 ATS System hitting 65.4% over the last 10 seasons. The 49ers’ offense is averaging 6.3 yards/play. Mike Martz is a genius as he’s utilizing all his weapons in San Francisco this season. Look for the 49es to cut back on their mistakes this week and take it to the Patriots. Bet San Francisco at home.Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2008, 09:46:46 PM »
DUNKEL INDEX
Indianapolis at Houston
The Colts look to bounce back from their last-second loss to Jacksonville two weeks ago and build on their 15-6 ATS record as a road favorite of 3 points or less. Indianapolis is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Cots favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3). Here are all of this week’s picks.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5
Game 405-406: Indianapolis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 136.065; Houston 129.455
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3); Over
Game 407-408: Tennessee at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 139.916; Baltimore 133.8555
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6; 30
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 33 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3); Under
Game 409-410: San Diego at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.430; Miami 128.483
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5; 42
Vegas Line: San Diego by 6 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+6 1/2); Under
Game 411-412: Kansas City at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 125.465; Carolina 132.557
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 7; 35
Vegas Line: Carolina by 9 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+9 1/2); Under
Game 413-414: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.820; Philadelphia 141.327
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 6; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-6); Over
Game 415-416: Chicago at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 132.570; Detroit 125.489
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 7; 50
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Over
Game 417-418: Atlanta at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 125.243; Green Bay 137.767
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 12 1/2; 47 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 419-420: Seattle at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 131.439; NY Giants 135.582
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4; 40
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+7); Under
Game 421-422: Tampa Bay at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 129.301; Denver 135.412
Dunkel Line: Denver by 6; 52
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 48
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3); Over
Game 423-424: New England at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: New England 132.655; San Francisco 124.763
Dunkel Line: New England by 8; 37
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Under
Game 425-426: Buffalo at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 131.410; Arizona 128.577
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 3; 50
Vegas Line: Arizona by 1; 44
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+1); Over
Game 427-428: Cincinnati at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 125.477; Dallas 139.598
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 14; 42
Vegas Line: Dallas by 17; 44
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+17); Under
Game 429-430: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 135.658; Jacksonville 137.065
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 1 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 4; 36
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+4); Over
MONDAY, OCTOBER 6
Game 431-432: Minnesota at New OrleansDunkel Ratings: Minnesota 128.342; New Orleans 134.667
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6; 49
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3); Over
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2008, 10:13:36 PM »
Steve Zukiel
San Diego Chargers vs Miami Dolphins
In this contest, my money is on the Miami Dolphins. It’s a West Coast team going East Coast for a 1:00 EST game, which means this is like a 10:00 am game for the Chargers. I look for them to be a little flat for this one, especially in the early going. The Chargers are also in a tough spot here. They are off a 1 point loss to the Denver Broncos, a Monday Night football game, a road game versus Oakland and they are playing a Sunday Night football game next week versus New England. I like the points here. Take the Dolphins. STEVE ZUKIEL TAKES THE MIAMI DOLPHINS OVER THE SAN DIEGO CHARGERS AS AN EZ FREE WINNERLogged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2008, 10:39:38 PM »
Masterbets
Bet on the RAVENS to cover the spread
Respect is given and warranted to the Titans who are a perfect 4-0, defying most handicappers’ expectations. They are coached by one of the best in the business, but this is a very tough spot to move to 5-0. Tennessee must rely on Kerry Collins, playing above his ability level so far, against a brutal Ravens defense that is coming off a tough OT loss at the Steelers. The Ravens match up very well here and are typically very tough at home. The line has moved in Baltimore’s favor as they are now +2.5 points and even though they’re coming off a short week they could easily upset the Titans today. A small wager on BALTIMORE + the points is worthwhile.Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2008, 06:20:00 AM »
Stephen Nover
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals
PICK: Arizona Cardinals
At first glance, the Buffalo Bills might seem like the right play. They are 4-0 with outstanding special teams, excellent team chemistry and an improving offense, while the Cardinals are coming off a game where they gave up 56 points and probably will be without Anquan Boldin.
First looks can be deceiving, though.
The Cardinals are going to win this game, which is all you need to cash since Arizona is in the pick’em to minus one range.
The Bills are making their third long road trip in four weeks. They are a carpet team playing on grass.
Buffalo is improved. However, the Bills’ schedule has laid out extremely well up to this point.
The Bills hosted a crippled Seattle squad opening week when the Seahawks weren’t ready. Buffalo then drew Jacksonville, which was struggling with a cluster injury problem in its offensive line.
Buffalo barely nipped Oakland, winning by one point at home. Then last week the Bills beat maybe the worst team in the NFL, the St. Louis Rams. So the Bills’ 4-0 mark isn’t as strong as it may look.
The Cardinals return home after being out East for two straight weeks. They are anxious to put the embarrassement of last Sunday’s loss to the New York Jets behind them. The Bills last played in Arizona in 1999.
Despite a boatload of turnovers against the Jets, Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner is having a strong season ranking third in passing yards and fifth in quarterback ratings.
Yes, the Cardinals probably aren’t going to have Boldin. However, they still have an “A” wideout in Larry Fitzgerald and young, talented wide receivers to attack a youthful Bills secondary that most likely is going to be without injured starting cornerback Terrence McGee.
The Bills are limping into their bye, which comes up next week. In addition to probably missing McGee, they will be without Roscoe Parrish. These losses hurt their vaunted special teams.
Buffalo’s two best defensive lineman, Marcus Stroud and Aaron Schobel, also are banged-up.
Arizona should be able to put up at least 21 points at home against the Bills. The Cardinals are 10-5 when scoring 21 or more points.
A lot is being made of Boldin getting hurt. But beneath the radar screen is the news that the Cardinals should get back two key defensive players. Nose tackle Gabe Watson is set to make his season debut after being out with a knee injury and strong safety Adrian Wilson is expected to play after missing last week’s game because of a hamstring injury.Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2008, 06:32:11 AM »
Scott Ferrall
BALTIMORE +3 from Tennessee—Ravens show the Titans who’s boss. Tenn isn’t going to the Super Bowl like everyone is thinking. I like Flacco and that Baltimore defense, particularly at home
CAROLINA 9.5 to Kansas City-The Panthers aren’t going to let Larry Johnson go off for 198 like he did last week against Denver in KC. The Chiefs still blow and will lay down in Charlotte—Steve Smith has a big game in this one
PHILLY 5.5 to Washington-The Eagles bounce back from the loss at Soldier Field and work over the Skins, who everyone will be pouncing on after they beat Dallas in Big D. They aren’t winning two straight on the road. The Eagles D is the difference in this game
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2008, 08:28:08 AM »
Matt Fargo
New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: New England Patriots -3
The 2008 Patriots are far from the 2007 Patriots and this line certainly backs it up. The loss of Tom Brady has probably put an end to New England trying to get back to the Super Bowl but this is still an above average team from the AFC playing a below average team from the NFC. This line will no doubt bring a lot of public action to the Patriots and that is why the units are relatively low here. I don’t like backing the public but there are too many factors favoring New England to pass up on it.
The 49ers return home after getting beat pretty soundly in New Orleans. They were outgained 467-312 as the defense was exposed badly. Yes, a return back home is good but let’s not forget the lone home victory this season came against the lowly Lions. San Francisco is a team on the rise but rising in the NFC West is nothing to be too excited about. The 49ers have dropped their last six games against the number after allowing 30 points last time out.
The Patriots offense is far from what it was last season but with two weeks to prepare following an embarrassing loss, they could find their stride here. Against the struggling defense of San Francisco, that helps even more. The 49ers are 22nd in the NFL in total defense, allowing 335.8 ypg including 124.5 ypg on the ground which is 21st in the NFL. New England needs to establish the run to take some pressure off Matt Cassel who had a rough game against the Dolphins.
On the other side, the 49ers offense has been up and down but the offensive line remains a huge concern. New Orleans had just four sacks entering last week’s game and it added six to its total. New England has just six sacks on the year, but its defensive line is good enough to penetrate this weak line. San Francisco quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan has been sacked a league-high 19 times. The 49ers will be looking to establish the run as well with Frank Gore. The Patriots are better against the run that what they showed last week.
The loss last week was a big one for New England and the line swing here is enormous. The Patriots fall into a solid situation based on that setback. Play on road teams that are coming off a loss by 14 or more points as a favorite, in weeks five through nine. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being +6.9 ppg. New England bounces back on the west coast before heading home to face San Diego next week. Play New England Patriots 1.5 UnitsLogged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2008, 10:22:15 AM »
Wunderdog
Buffalo at Arizona
Pick: OVER 44.5
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2008, 12:41:01 PM »
Sports Insights
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Or, have they? The Indy Colts have stumbled out of the gate this year, going just 1-2, after being one of the NFL’s elite teams the past few years. However, with a spread of just -3 over the Houston Texans, the Colts are collecting a huge 80% of all bets. The powerhouse days of the Colts are engrained in many bettors’ brains and the three points don’t seem like much.
To some, this game looks like a “trap.” It seems too easy to take the Colts 3. However, these are normally the games that have value going the other way. We’ll “bet against the public” and take a solid Houston Texan team at home. Amazingly enough, even with the Public pounding the Colts, the line has edged slightly in the direction of the Texans! The line opened at Houston +3.5 at CRIS (or +3 with “plus vig” at Pinnacle) – but is currently more centered at +3. This gives us comfort in knowing that “big, smart money” is on Houston, as well.
The Texans had to play their first three games on the road but come home to friendlier ground, where they were a solid 6-2 last year. Overall, the Texans were a very competitive team in 2007 and we look for them to get back on track. We’ll grab one of the scariest-looking-games on the board and take a live home dog against a wounded former champ, plus the points. If you shop around, you can find +3.5.
Houston Texans +3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos
When we were discussing the games with our offshore contacts, the Tampa Bay-Denver game came up immediately. Our friends alerted us to “early sharp money” immediately pushing the line from TB +4.5 all the way down to TB +3 at some books. That’s a huge move right near the key-three number. This is particularly noteworthy because SportsInsights.com’s betting percentages show that three out of every four bets are landing on Denver! Some “big money” took TB and drove the line down.
We’ll join the Sharps and “bet against the public.” Many bettors love the Broncos at Mile High—but 3.5 points between two of the early playoff contenders looks like a lot of points. As a side-note, Denver was 7-9 last year, while Tampa Bay was a playoff team via their division-leading 9-7 record. You can still get Tampa Bay +3.5 at some books.
Tampa Bay Bucs +3
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles
You don’t often see us give points - let alone six – but the Philadelphia Eagles get the pick this week. The Philadelphia Eagles stand at the bottom of the fierce NFC East Division, with a 2-2 record. The two losses were for a combined eight points, on the road, at Dallas and at Chicago. Not too shabby. On top of that, Philly lost last week, in a showcase game on Sunday Night Football. We’ll “buy” the Eagles off of their disappointing loss last week and a misleading 2-2 record.
On the other hand, we’ll “sell” the Washington Redskins at a relative high, after beating the powerhouse Cowboys, in Dallas. The Redskins have put together a three game winning streak, and the public is jumping on Washington. We’ll grab the contrarian value and “buy low, sell high.” The selling pressure has lightened the line to Philly -5.5, at decent vig, at Tradesports.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2008, 06:33:37 PM »
Lenny Del Genio
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Prediction: Over
The Houston Texans are finally back home following a brutal three-game road trip to start the season.The scheduled home opener in Week 2 vs. Baltimore was moved due to Hurricane Ike and as a result, the team has been forced to take on Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Jacksonville ? all on the road. Not surprisingly, the Texans lost all three games Straight Up while cashing at the betting window just once last week vs. the Jaguars in a 30-27 overtime loss (+7). This weeks opponent, the Indianapolis Colts, will also be eager to take to the field following a bye and a subpar 1-2 start. Right now, the Colts are looking up at both the Titans and Jaguars in the AFC South, so another loss, particularly in a division game, is out of the question for Peyton Manning and company.Therefore, we take a look at the total for this matchup. Houston certainly has to go Under in one of these AFC South games, right We misfired on an Under call last week against the Jags as the two teams lit up the scoreboard in the 4th Quarter. The Texans have now gone Over in eight straight division games. Furthermore, these teams have gone Over in each of the six prior meetings. Even further, Indy has gone Over in eight of nine following a bye. All those trends just seem a bit Over the top to us. Eventually, things have to go the other way. Take Over
Michael Alexander
Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants
Play:NY Giants -7
The Giants come out of ther bye week today as the only unbeaten NFC team at 3-0 and are a top the tough NFC East Division. The Giants got into this one minus their start receive Burress who was suspended for his off field actions. The Giants offense has started the season in good fashion averaging 27.7 points per game on 400 yards of total offense. Although the defense lost two of their top defensive players (one to retirement and one to injury) their defense has still remained tough giving up only 14.3 points per game and 252 yards of total offense.
The Seattle Seahawks travel to the “Big Apple” off their bye week as well but, unlike the Giants, have struggled in the early going. They come in with a 1-2 mark and trail both San Francisco and Arizona in the NFC West Division. Their offense hasn’t been lacking however as they are putting up an average of 25.7 points per game on 337 yards of total offense. It’s their defense that has caused them problems, especially when they have been on the road, giving up a whopping 34 points per game.
SUPPORTING ANGLES: SEATTLE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival since 1992. NY GIANTS are 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons.
The Seahawks have had trouble protecting Hasselback this season and their offense has been minus WR’s Engram and Branch. They might play in this one but it won’t help as rust will show versus a tough NY defense who will keep them out of the endzone. I’m taking the Giants in this one.Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #18 on: October 04, 2008, 08:20:50 PM »
Nelly
Arizona – over Buffalo
The Bills are a shocking 4-0 but they have needed comebacks against bad teams in the last two games. Buffalo will face long travel and an offense that can put up huge numbers. Arizona lost in two East coast games but back at home the story should be different. The Cardinals have strong numbers at home the past three seasons and Buffalo is not used to this role and may start to feel the pressure and weight of elevated expectations.
Nelly’s dominated early season NFL action in 2007, getting off to a 16-4 start through the first seven weeks. We are off to another strong start at 9-3, highly ranked at the Sports Monitor, and we have won this weekly Guaranteed 2/3 package all four weeks it has been offered! That’s right, this package is 4-0 on the season and we are ready to make it 5-0 with three more great Sunday selections. There is no charge unless you profit and we are expecting a great chance at a 3-0 day!Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2008, 08:22:42 PM »
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Cincinnati Bengals
It’s a battle of America’s Most Wanted team (Bengals) against America’s team (Cowboys) in the Big ‘D’ on Sunday. While Cincinnati is winless and Dallas is mad about last week’s debacle at home against the Redskins, the fact of the matter NFL double-digit favorites are 0-6 ATS this season. Toss in Dallas’ 0-9 ATS mark as a favorite of 7 or more points in games off a SU home favorite loss and we’ll gladly garb the generous points in this overlay today. Back the Bengals here today.Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #20 on: October 04, 2008, 08:23:07 PM »
Alex Smart
Miami Dolphins +7.0
The Miami Dolphins have had an extra week of rest since upsetting and pounding the New England Patriots 30-13 back on Sept 21. The Fins , well prepared and fresh, will now take on a San Diego team that exerted a great deal of energy in a come back victory against their long time rivals the Oakland Raiders last week.
I’m betting the Chargers after that above mentioned effort, and the difficulties associated with adjusting to a new time zone, will not be as lethal as usual, especially in the heat and humidity of south Florida.
Meanwhile, I expect the Dolphins behind a load of exotic offensive options with RB Ronnie Brown as the catalyst to give the Chargers inconsistent offense all they can handle in this spot on their way to what could easily be another upset win, against a franchise they have beaten 6 straight times .Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #21 on: October 04, 2008, 08:25:18 PM »
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Chargers/Dolphins UNDER 45
The UNDER has been a reliable play between these teams, 7-0 in the L7 contests, and it looks like the books have set the bar too high again. Plays Under on Road teams against the total ( SAN DIEGO ) off a double digit road win against an opponent off a road win are 26-7 over the last 10 seasons. Miami is also 14-3 Under in home games off a road win against a division rival since 1992. We’ll take the UNDER.Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #22 on: Today at 12:50:14 AM »
Alex Smart Sports
San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Miami +6.5
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #23 on: Today at 01:02:26 AM »
Power Sweep
3* KC/Carolina Under 37
3Skins U38
3 Bemgals/Boys Over 44
2Pats/49’s Under 42
2Colts/Texans Over 46
4* Tennessee over BALTIMORE – TEN is 4-0 for the 1st time in franchise history after a 4H win as a Key Selection LW. BAL beat the Titans 27-26 in the last meeting in ‘06 but failed to cover as a 7 pt AF. This game pits the Titans #5 D (#1 sacks) vs the Ravens #1 D (#17 sacks). The Ravens are off LW’s MNF game vs PIT & teams are 6-20 ATS after dealing with the Steelers physical style of play. TEN is 11-4-1 ATS on the road. The Ravens have been able to insulate Flacco (129 ypg 58% 0-2 5.4 ypa) with a strong run game but that has been vs CIN #19 & CLE #10 D’s which is inflated. While Flacco has only been sacked once prior to MNF he’s only thrown 48 pass att’s which was tied for 31st prior to LW. Dating back to LY TEN is allowing only 79 rush ypg (3.9) on the road. While BAL is only allowing 70 ypg rushing (3.5) TY, CIN didn’t put much effort into WK 1 & CLE dumped the run game after Anderson’s 2 int put them in the hole. TEN QB Collins has fulfilled his role as a game manager admirably TY with 171 ypg (56%) with a 2-1 ratio in his 3 starts being sacked just once. TEN’s #8 pass D is only allowing 203 ypg (57%) with a solid 1-8 ratio with just a 5.7 ypa (52.5 QBR). While there is no line due to MNF TEN has the better QB, is healthier with a very impressive defense with more rest & we return to them as a Key Selection. FORECAST: Tennessee 23 BALTIMORE 10
3* ARIZONA over Buffalo – The Bills travel for the 2nd straight week but have a bye on deck. ARZ is finally home after 2 straight road games. ARZ is 10-3 as a non-div HF & 6-1 ATS vs the AFC. ARZ decided to stay out on the East Coast LW & they were unable to focus on the goal at hand with police escorts to practice & spending their free time seeing the sights. They were down 34-0 at the end of the 1H with 4 TO’s converted into 20 pts & outgained 203-92. The came out strong in the 2H as they outscored NYJ 35-22 & had 27-9 FD & 376-170 yd edges. ARZ is expected to be without WR Boldin after he took a vicious hit at the end of the game. BUF started slow vs STL LW being down 14-6 at the end of the 1H & was outgained 210-96. They then rallied & scored 25 unanswered points. BUF only had an 11 yd edge in the 2H but had 3 drives start on their 41 or better & 100 of STL yds came on their L2 drives. ARZ has the #5 & #9 units which is impressive considering 3 of their 1st 4 games have been on the road. BUF’s #17 ranking is skewed due to the success of their special teams & their #7 defensive ranking is vs a STL team in chaos, OAK with essentially rookie QB, a JAX team with no quality WR’s & a depleted OL & very beaten up SEA team. BUF will be hearing how good they are & front runners for the division but expect an embarrassed ARZ team to come ready to play. FORECAST: ARIZONA 31 Buffalo 20
CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF PRIORITY PICKS
10* PHILADELPHIA over Washington
PHILADELPHIA 27 – Washington 13
Respect progress made by Washington HC Jim Zorn in installing his offense and adapting QB Jason Campblell to
his system. However, in the yin and yang that is the NFL, prefer taking Philly coming off a disappointing loss in
Chicago over a Redskin bunch that might find it difficult to duplicate emotional peak it achieved in impressive win
in Dallas. The Eagles did a number on Pittsburgh at Lincoln Financial Field, and RB Brian Westbrook could be back
in action after sitting out the Bear game with an ankle injury. Philly QB McNabb hit nine different receivers in
Chicago, and the Washington defense ranks 22nd against the pass and has just 6 sacks this season.
TOTALS: OVER (43½) in the Seattle-N.Y. Giants game—New York has generated 67 points in last two games, and Seattle has gone “overâ€? in all three of its games due to a leaky defense and a balanced attack…OVER (47) in the Minnesota-New Orleans game—Prolific N.O., which is scoring 28 ppg & yielding 5.2 ypc, is “overâ€? 3-0-1 TY and 16-6-1 last 23 since late ’06. Minny “overâ€? in both road games this year, and Adrian Peterson should have some fun.
Red Sheet
New England 27 – SAN FRANCISCO 13 – Line opened at NewEngland minus 3½, and is now minus 3. As we wrote earlier, had these 2 met on opening week, the spread would have been at least 10 pts higher. The loss of Brady, of course, is monumental. However, the defense stepped up in the Pats’ 2 openers, allowing 10 & 10 pts. But it all collapsed in 3813 shocking loss to Miami, at home. Thus, this contest is a classic “backs-to-the-wall” situation for the Patriots. No questioning the improvement of the Niners (33 & 31 pt efforts in 2 of their last 3 outings), thus there will be no sneaking up. Pats have to take it.RATING: NEW ENGLAND 88
POINTWISE NFL
NFL Key Selections.
3-New England over SAN FRANCISCO 24-13-DENVER over Tampa Bay 27-20
4
4-NY GIANTS over Seattle 33-16-HOUSTON() over Indianapolis 27-26
5
5—Minnesota () over NEW ORLEANS 23-20
Mark Lawrence
5 BEST BET
New England over San Fran by 15 Roll the clock back to the first week of the season and our best guess is the line on this game would have seen the Patriots installed as doubledigit favorites. Today, with Tom Brady on the sidelines and the Niners a .500 squad, two touchdowns has become a fi eld goal and suddenly this game becomes attractive. With that we hurry off to our Bill Belichick databank and fi nd numbers that support our contention. For openers, Mr. Personality is 22-9 ATS in his NFL head coaching career on the road in games off a loss, including 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine and 7-0 ATS as a favorite of less than 7 points. To top it off he’s squared off against teams from the NFC West Division 13 times and – you guessed it – he’s 13-0 ATS in those games. Toss in Frisco’s 1-10 ATS mark as a dog off a non-division game when facing an AFC opponent and you can see why we’re taking a patriotic approach to this game.
4* BEST BET
Philadelphia over Washington by 16
Life has been pretty much black and white at home (2-0 SU and ATS) and on the road (0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS) for the Eagles in 2008. More important, from a handicapping perspective, the Green Birds have been perfect, 4-0, In The Stats this season. They will apply that notion against a fat-andhappy bunch of Hogs, fresh off last Sunday’s underdog win as doubledigit dogs at Dallas. That fi ts like a Michael Jackson glove given the fact the Skins are 0-5-1 ATS on the road off a Cowboy win while Philly is 10-3-1 ATS in division games off an ATS loss of 7 or more points behind Andy Reid. Andy is also dandy in games off a SU favorite loss, going 17-8 SU and ATS. Just like Los Lobos, he sees a red door and wants to paint it black
3* BEST BET
Detroit over Chicago by 7
It’s been said that the best sex a man can have is right after his favorite football team wins a game. If that’s the case then the Motor City’s been celibate this season. With Matt Millen no longer guarding the condoms this may actually be a breakout game for the Lions. It happens much more often than not to winless teams after a Bye Week. The fact of the matter is 0-3 or worse division dogs playing with an extra wink are 7-7 SU and 11-1-1 ATS. Additionally, the Lions are 7-5 SU and 12-0 ATS as division home dogs against an opponent that allowed 20 or more points in its last contest. With Lovie Smith 1-8-1 ATS in games off a win against a foe off back-to-back losses, it’s time to break out the Trojans. The Lions and the men from Motown are looking to make a score today!
THE GOLD SHEET – NFL
KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND by 14 over San Francisco
ARIZONA by 17 over Buffalo
OVER THE TOTAL in the Tampa Bay-Denver game
OVER THE TOTAL DENVER 34 – Tampa Bay 26—Denver’s Achilles’ Heel apparently the same as LY, as Larry Johnson (198 YR last week) the latest to puncture soft Broncos rush defense. Not sure T.B.’s chop-busting Earnest Graham can’t do similar damage. But Bucs living very dangerously these days,with Brian Griese (back at one of his old haunts) still prone to sloppy efforts (his 3 picks nearly undid T.B.’s dominance vs. banged-up Packers last week). Jay Cutler & Co. (34 ppg last 5 at home) tough to outscore at Invesco Field, and doubt Denver self-destructs with the TOs (4 of ‘em) that undermined attack at Arrowhead. “Totalsâ€? alert—Broncos “overâ€? 13 of last 15 at home, and 20 of last 25 overall since late “06; T.B. “overâ€? 8-2 last 10. (04-Denver -3 16-13…SR: Denver 4-2)
New England 27 – SAN FRANCISCO 13—Bill Belichick’s defense led the way in Super Bowl XXXVI at New Orleans as N.E. defeated Mike Martz’ Rams and their high-powered offense 20-17 on a last-second FG. Now,Belichick’s defenders are under the microscope after giving up TD drives of 74,79, 77, 79 and 62 yards vs. the Dolphins two weeks ago! Insiders report extra hard- hitting, back-to-basics defensive practices in Foxborough since then, while Tom Brady has reported early in the A.M. to help Matt Cassel with film study after coaches tailored play book more to his liking. Pats just 2-12 vs. the spread their last 14 overall, but J.T. O’Sullivan sacked six times in N.O. More of the same this week. (04-NEW ENGLAND -13’ 21-7…SR: San Francisco 7-3)
ARIZONA 30 – Buffalo 13—After spending two the last two weeks on the east coast, yielding a total of 8 TOs and 8 TDP, Arizona gets to turn the tables on undefeated AFC East rep Buffalo. But even if hard-nosed WR Anquan Boldin sidelined (check status), will come back with Cardinals now on home turf for only the second time TY. Rookie power back Tim Hightower (via Richmond) helping Edgerrin James in backfield, and QB Kurt Warner’s arm is well-oiled, as evidenced by his 472 YP in six-giveaway performance by Arizona last week. (04-BUFFALO -3’ 38-14…SR: Buffalo 5-3)
Power Plays 4’s
NFL:
4 Carolina
4* Tampa Bucs
Vegas Experts The Edge Newsletter
3Carolina3Arizona
3Jacksonville
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #24 on: Today at 01:04:00 AM »
THE SPORTS MEMO
MARTY OTTO
INDIANAPOLIS -3 AT HOUSTON O/U 47
Recommendation: Over
I normally wouldn’t play an NFL total lined this high but some real fundamental and situational factors line up and make this one hard to pass up. For starters, the Houston defense just can’t keep opponents off the scoreboard. They’ve given up at least 30 points in all three of their games thus far, equally gashed on the ground and through the air even by modest offensive teams like Jacksonville and Tennessee. While I think the Colts’ offense is somewhat diminished from recent years due to poor health along the front line, they did have the luxury of working out the kinks during their bye last week. Going back to the second half of the Minnesota game we have seen Peyton Manning shake off some of the rust after missing camp with a knee injury and the running game finally make a contribution. When the game has been on the line Manning has led his team to easy points and I don’t see him having a problem picking apart Houston’s shady secondary. I don’t however think the Colts’ defense will be able to fix their problems in one week. They are undersized and inexperienced and the sudden emergence of Steve Slaton for Houston will add to the Colts’ misery in stopping the run. Six straight in this head-to-head have gone Over and this makes seven.
FAIRWAY JAY
SAN DIEGO AT MIAMI +7
Recommendation: Miami
Two weeks ago we cashed our easiest winner of the season when the Dolphins (12.5) traveled to New England and crushed the AFC Champs 38-13. Now back in action and coming off a bye week, Miami is in a very strong situation as a big home underdog. Numerous strong situational systems support Miami this week, as the players and coaches have the extra week of preparation and planning while the public still approaches these fish as dead and unable to swim with the big fish. The Chargers were losing 15-0 at halftime last week and struggled mightily with the Raiders before scoring 25 points in the fourth quarter to get the 28-18 victory and a remarkable pointspread cover. Oakland had some injured offensive linemen and less than 100% running backs, but still managed to outgain San Diego despite Tomlinson’s big late touchdown run. This week it will be the Dolphins’ ground attack of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams that can chew up yardage similar to how the Panthers and Broncos (140 each rushing) did while beating San Diego in weeks 1 and 2. Add in some single wing sets, short Pennington passes and a stronger and improving Dolphins’ defense and this ‘Dog should be ready to bite again.
DONNIE BLACK
BUFFALO AT ARIZONA -1.5
Recommendation: Arizona
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #25 on: Today at 01:09:01 AM »
Jim Feist
CHI Bears at DET Lions
Take: Over
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #26 on: Today at 01:09:31 AM »
Tom Freese
Tampa Bay at Denver
Denver is 10-1-1 OVER off a straight up loss and they are 13-3-1 OVER their last 17 home games. The Broncos are 10-1-1 OVER after allowing over 350 yards in their last game and they are 20-7-1 OVER off an ATS loss. Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER off a straight up win and they are 6-0 OVER their last 6 road games. The Buccaneers are 5-0 OVER after allowing less than 250 in their last game and they are 5-0 OVER after rushing for over 150 yards in their last game. 10 PLAY ON ‘OVER’Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #27 on: Today at 01:10:38 AM »
Jimmy The Moose
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos
Prediction: Over
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #28 on: Today at 01:11:36 AM »
LARRY NESS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos
PICK: Over 46.5
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #29 on: Today at 01:12:40 AM »
Mike Anthony
Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play:Arizona -1
Off the big loss with 7 turnovers last week the Cardinals return home to face the perfect 4-0 Buffalo Bills who rallied in the second half to win and cover against the St. Louis Rams. Buffalo is 4-0 but have beaten 2 terrible teams in STL and OAKLAND. Buffalo was outgained by more than 100 yards and was only 3-of-13 on third down yet was able to manage a 17-point win. For Buffalo, this will be the best team in the most favorable situation that they have faced this season. We expect Arizona to bounce back now that they are at home and to earn the win over the undefeated Bills.
Karl Garrett
Tennessee at BALTIMORE +3
G-Man coming with an upset call today in the NFL.
Tennessee stands at 4-0 straight up, and against the spread, but they are on the road today against a very physical defense that will make life tough on Kerry Collins this afternoon.
Baltimore is 2-0 at home this season, and their defense has come up with 7 sacks, and 5 takeaways in those 2 games, while allowing just 20 points to score.
The Ravens defense will dictate play today, and Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco will come up with a few big plays that will lead to the mild upset in Baltimore today.
Tennessee comes into this game as one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the league, as as you all know, the longer a team stays unbeaten, the bigger the bullseye gets on their backs!
Ray Lewis and his mates should have no trouble getting plenty of heat on Kerry Collins this afternoon.
Take the points.
3♦ BALTIMORELogged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #31 on: Today at 01:14:59 AM »
Sports Gambling Hotline
Kansas City at CAROLINA -9½
Last week Kansas City stopped a 12 game losing streak with the home upset of the undefeated Broncos.
Hard to imagine KC making it 2 in a row today at Carolina. Heck, we find it hard to imagine the Chiefs hanging inside of this impost.
Carolina is 3-1 this year, and they have gone 4-1-1 against the spread their last 6 when laying 7-points or more.
KC meanwhile is just 5-8 against the spread their last 13 games, and we don’t see them being able to duplicate the formula that led them to their win over Denver last week, as Carolina’s defense is better suited towards stopping the Chiefs running game, and is likely to grab a pick or two off of QB Damon Huard.
Jake Delhomme was able to connect with Muhammad, and Smith a combined 14 times last Sunday, for 2 TD strikes. That trio is likely to do more damage today at home.
Play on Carolina!
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #32 on: Today at 01:19:03 AM »
SPORTS ADVISORS
Indianapolis (1-2 SU and ATS) at Houston (0-3, 1-2 ATS)
The Colts, already three games behind in the win column in their division, travel to Reliant Stadium for an AFC South matchup against the Texans, who are finally playing their first home game following the destruction of Hurricane Ike.
Indianapolis, which had its bye last week, got beat by Jacksonville 23-21 Sept. 21 as a four-point home favorite, losing on Josh Scobee’s last-second, 51-yard field goal. QB Peyton Manning (15 of 29, 216 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) had a very subpar day, with one of his picks going 61 yards the other way for a Jags TD. Indy also had a huge time-of-possession deficit (41:35-18:25) and gave up 236 rushing yards.
Houston took that same Jacksonville team to overtime last week before falling 30-27 as a 6½-point road underdog, the first time the Texans have cashed this year. QB Matt Schaub was solid, going 29 of 40 for 307 yards and three TDs, with no turnovers. In fact, the contest was extremely even, Houston outgaining Jacksonville 386-375 and neither team committing a turnover.
Indianapolis has gone 9-1 SU (5-5 ATS) in the last 10 in this rivalry (all as a favorite), including winning both games last year, though Houston got the cash at home in a 30-24 loss catching 6½ points. The home team is on a 4-0 ATS run, and the Texans are 4-1 ATS in the last five series clashes at Reliant.
The Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last seven roadies, but they are mired in pointspread slides of 1-4 overall, 2-9 in division play, 1-4 after a SU loss and 3-7 against losing teams. The Texans are on a 9-4 ATS run as a home ‘dog in division play, and they’ve cashed in four straight at home, but they are on ATS slides of 2-5 in division play and 4-9 against the AFC.
The last six meetings in this rivalry have gone over the total, and the over is on further runs of 5-0 for Houston overall,16-5 for Houston inside the division and 5-2 for Indy against AFC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Tennessee (4-0 SU and ATS) at Baltimore (2-1, 3-0 ATS)
The Titans aim to stay among the slim ranks of the unbeaten when they travel to M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Ravens, with two of the league’s top defenses on display.
Tennessee topped Minnesota 30-17 as a three-point home chalk to remain perfect on the season both SU and ATS. It was the most points the Titans have allowed this season, but the defense more than made up for it by forcing four turnovers – three fumble recoveries and an INT – and recording four sacks. Meanwhile, QB Kerry Collins (18 of 35, 199 yards) had a turnover-free day.
Baltimore forced Pittsburgh to overtime before falling 23-20 Monday night, but covered as a six-point road pup. QB Joe Flacco (16 of 31, 192 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a fairly clean game, but his lone mistake – a fumble – was returned for a TD that gave Pittsburgh the lead.
Tennessee has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 SU), including a 27-26 home loss two years ago as a seven-point ‘dog. In fact, the underdog is on 13-3 ATS when these former division rivals square off.
The Titans are on a 4-8 ATS decline as a road chalk, but the pointspread trends turn positive from there, including 4-0 after a SU win, 4-1 against AFC foes and 12-5 on the highway. The Ravens have cashed in four of their last five at M&T, but they are riding a 3-10 ATS freefall coming off a SU loss, and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four Sunday games coming off a Monday night appearance.
The under for Tennessee is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the road and 5-1 against the AFC, and in this rivalry, the total has gone low in four of the last five meetings overall and five of the last seven in Baltimore. However, the Ravens are on “over� sprees of 8-2 overall and 5-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
San Diego (2-2 SU and ATS) at Miami (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Chargers, getting back on track after an 0-2 start, make the cross-country trek to South Beach to take on the Dolphins.
San Diego erased a 15-0 halftime deficit en route to a 28-18 victory over Oakland, winning and cashing as a nine-point favorite for the second straight week. QB Philip Rivers (14 of 25, 180 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) was sacked four times, but he got it together in the second half, aided by RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who finished with 106 yards and two TDs, including a late 41-yard jaunt to secure the spread-cover.
Miami took last week off after its shocking 38-13 road rout of New England on Sept. 21 as a 12½-point road underdog. QB Chad Pennington was almost flawless in that victory, going 17 of 20 for 226 yards to lead an offense that had no turnovers against the defending AFC champs. However, RB Ronnie Brown (17 carries, 113 yards) stole the show, running for four TDs and passing for another as the Fish racked up an astounding 461-215 advantage in total yards.
Miami has won and cashed in the last four meetings against San Diego, but the two teams haven’t met since 2005, when the Dolphins scored a 23-21 road upset catching 12½ points. The road team is on a 5-1 ATS streak in this rivalry.
The Chargers are on an 0-4 ATS slide as a non-division road favorite, but otherwise they are on a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including 6-0-1 on the road, 9-1 after a SU win, 9-1 after a spread-cover and 23-9-1 against losing teams. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are in a 2-9 ATS freefall at home and carry further negative ATS streaks of 7-21-1 after a spread-cover and 9-19 after a SU win.
The over for San Diego is on runs of 4-0 this season, 13-3-2 on the road and 4-1 against AFC foes, and the total has gone high in six of Miami’s last eight outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Kansas City (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at Carolina (3-1, 2-1-1 ATS)
The Chiefs, finally free of their 12-game losing skid that dated to last season, travel to Charlotte for a non-conference clash with the Panthers.
Kansas City rode RB Larry Johnson to a 33-19 upset of Denver as a heavy 9½-point home underdog for its first win since last October. Johnson rolled up 198 yards and two TDs on 28 carries, complementing a mistake-free game from QB Damon Huard (21 of 28, 160 yards, 1 TD), and the Chiefs defense forced four turnovers.
Carolina dumped Atlanta 24-9 as a seven-point home chalk last Sunday. The Panthers outgained the Falcons by a healthy 401-268 margin, paced by a solid effort from QB Jake Delhomme (20 of 29, 294 yards, 2 TDs) in a turnover-free game for both teams. WR Muhsin Muhammad had eight catches for 147 yards and a TD.
These teams have met just twice this decade, with Carolina going 2-0 ATS (1-1 SU), most recently winning 28-17 as a seven-point road ‘dog in 2004.
Despite the Chiefs’ breakthrough last week and a 7-2 ATS mark in their last nine roadies, they still carry negative ATS streaks of 6-10-1 against the NFC, 2-5 against winning teams and 2-5-1 after a spread-cover. The Panthers are on positive pointspread streaks of 4-0-1 at home and 5-1-1 overall.
The under is 9-4 in Kansas City’s last 13 road games, and for Carolina, the under is on stretches of 5-2 overall, 20-8-1 at home and 6-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA and UNDER
Washington (3-1 SU and ATS) at Philadelphia (2-2, 3-1 ATS)
The surging Redskins head out on the road to face an NFC East rival for the second straight week, this time battling the Eagles, who are in need of a win to keep pace in the league’s strongest division.
Washington shocked Dallas 26-24 catching 10½ points on the road, winning and cashing for the third straight week after losing its season opener at the Giants. QB Jason Campbell (20 of 31, 231 yards, 2 TDs) still has not committed a turnover this season, and RB Clinton Portis (21 carries, 121 yards) helped the Redskins post a whopping 16-minute advantage in time of possession against the Cowboys.
Philadelphia struggled to put the ball in the end zone in a 24-20 loss at Chicago laying three points on Sunday night. QB Donovan McNabb (25 of 41, 262 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) led just two field-goal drives in the second half, along with a late-fourth-quarter drive that was stuffed on three straight attempts from inside the Bears’ 2-yard line.
Washington is 4-2-1 ATS (3-4 SU) in the last six meetings in this rivalry, and the road team won and covered in both clashes last year.
The Redskins are on ATS runs of 7-2 overall and 4-1 inside the division, but they are 5-9-1 ATS in their last 15 road contests. The Eagles sport positive ATS streaks of 5-2 overall, 6-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 against the NFC, 7-2 after a SU loss and 10-4 against winning teams.
The under is 6-2-1 in the last nine clashes in this rivalry, and the under is also 9-4 in Washington’s last 13 games when coming off an ATS win and 4-0 in Philly’s last four at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
Chicago (2-2, 2-1-1 ATS) at Detroit (0-3 SU and ATS)
The Lions, who finally rid themselves of team president Matt Millen during their bye week, hopes the move inspires them to their first victory of 2008 when they host the rival Bears at Ford Field.
Detroit got drummed 31-13 by San Francisco two weeks ago as a five-point road pup and fired Millen shortly thereafter, having lost 10 of their last 11 games SU and ATS dating to midseason last year. QB Jon Kitna (15 of 30, 146 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had another subpar effort, and his TD-to-INT ratio is now 5-5. The Lions were outgained 370-240 in San Francisco and had nearly 12 minutes less in time of possession.
Chicago earned a 24-20 victory over Philadelphia as a three-point home ‘dog Sunday night. QB Kyle Orton (18 of 34, 199 yards) had three TD passes, but he also had all four of the Bears’ turnovers on two INTs and two lost fumbles. He was bailed out by a defense that allowed just two field goals in the second half and made a late goal-line stand to clinch the win, stopping the Eagles on three straight plays from inside the 2-yard line.
Detroit has cashed in three straight games in this series, sweeping last year’s season series before the Lions’ current slump began. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head clashes.
The Lions are on a 4-0 ATS run coming off a bye week, but they are on pointspread skids of 6-12-1 overall, 4-10 getting points and 3-6-1 in home divisional games. The Bears, meanwhile, are on positive ATS streaks of 5-1-1 overall, 6-2 on the highway and 4-1-1 against the NFC.
The over for Chicago is on tears of 21-6-1 against NFC foes, 12-4 against losing teams and 7-3-1 inside the division, and for Detroit, the over is on runs of 8-1 overall, 4-0 in NFC North tilts and 4-0 at home. Finally, the total has gone high in four of the last six meetings between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Atlanta (2-2 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (2-2 SU and ATS)
The Packers return home looking to halt a two-game skid when they face the Falcons at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay rallied to take a 21-20 fourth-quarter lead against Tampa Bay in Week 4, then gave up the last 10 points of the game in a 30-21 loss as a one-point road ‘dog. QB Aaron Rodgers (14 of 27, 165 yards) had a terrible day, offsetting two TD passes with his first three INTs of the year, and the Pack finished with a pathetic 181 total yards and a nearly 14-minute deficit in time of possession.
Atlanta lost to Carolina 24-9 getting seven points on the road and is now 2-0 SU and ATS at home this season but 0-2 SU and ATS on the road – and both road losses came by identical 24-9 final scores as a seven-point pup. Rookie QB Matt Ryan was unleashed a bit against the Panthers, throwing 41 passes, but he completed just 21 for 158 yards, with no TDs or INTs. The Falcons allowed 401 yards, while gaining just 268.
These two teams last met in the regular season in 2005, with Green Bay posting a 33-25 road win as a nine-point pup. The road team is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry, all in the underdog role.
Despite back-to-back SU and ATS defeats, the Packers are still on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 16-6-1 overall, 7-2-1 as a home chalk, 7-1-2 after a non-cover, 5-1-1 after a SU loss and 16-7-2 against the NFC. Meanwhile, the Falcons have failed to cover in four of their last five on the highway.
For Green Bay, the over is on runs of 20-8 overall, 6-1 at home and 14-3 in conference games, and the over for Atlanta is 9-2 in its last 11 overall and 7-2 in its last nine against NFC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Seattle (1-2 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Giants (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Giants aim to remain unbeaten when they return from their bye to face the Seahawks in East Rutherford, N.J.
New York barely held off Cincinnati two weeks ago, winning 26-23 in overtime as an overwhelming 13-point home favorite. QB Eli Manning (26 of 43, 289 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was steady in a clean turnover-free game by both teams.
Seattle was also off last week after rolling over St. Louis 37-13 as a nine-point home chalk two Sundays ago. QB Matt Hasselbeck (12 of 20, 172 yards, 1 TD) let the running game carry him, as the Seahawks rushed for 245 yards, paced by Julius Jones’ 140 yards and a TD on 22 carries. Seattle posted a 407-240 total yardage edge and a 10-minute advantage in time of possession.
Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings with New York, most recently earning a 42-30 home win giving 3½ points in 2006.
The Giants are just 1-5-1 ATS coming off the bye the past seven years, but they are on several positive ATS runs, including 16-5 overall, 5-0 against the NFC and 6-1 after a SU win. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have a definite aversion to cross-country trips, though, with a 4-13 ATS mark in their last 17 contests in the Eastern time zone, including a season-opening loss at Buffalo. They carry further ATS slides of 0-4 in roadies, 7-13 as a road pup, 2-6 on the road against winning teams and 2-8 coming off the bye.
The over for New York is 6-2 in its last eight home contests, but the under is on runs of 11-3 after a bye and 6-2 against the NFC. For Seattle, the over is on tears of 6-0 overall, 5-0 against NFC foes, 8-1 after the bye week and 4-1 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Tampa Bay (3-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
The Buccaneers aim to run their winning streak to four when they travel to Invesco Field at Mile High for a non-conference clash with the Broncos.
Tampa Bay overcame three second-half INTs from QB Brian Griese – with the last returned for a TD – to beat Green Bay 30-21 as a one-point home chalk in Week 4. Griese’s miscues turned a 20-7 lead into a 21-20 deficit, but he led a field-goal drive to put the Bucs back up, and RB Earnest Graham (20 carries, 111 yards) made his last two carries count – a 47-yarder, followed by a 1-yarder for a TD. It ended up being a close game despite Tampa’s 327-181 yardage edge and a nearly 13-minute bulge in time of possession.
Denver was dealt its first loss in surprising fashion, falling 33-19 to Kansas City as a 9½-point road favorite as the Chiefs snapped a 12-game losing streak. QB Jay Cutler (29 of 49, 361 yards, 1 TD) had a monster game, but he was playing from behind most of the day and also had a lost fumble to go with two picks as the Broncos lost the turnover battle 4-1. The suspect Denver defense also let RB Larry Johnson rumble for 198 yards and two TDs on 28 carries.
These two teams haven’t met since 2004, when Denver earned a 16-13 road, pushing as a three-point favorite.
The Bucs have failed to cash in nine of their last 10 road games against the AFC. And the Broncos are on a bevy of ATS slides, including 7-20-1 overall, 4-11-1 at Mile High, 2-9 at home against the NFC and 2-8 as a non-division home favorite.
The over has cashed in Denver’s first four games this season and is on further streaks for the Broncos of 20-5 overall, 12-2 at home and 7-2-1 against winning teams. Likewise, the over for Tampa is on stretches of 8-2 overall and 7-3 in roadies – including the last six in a row.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New England (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at San Francisco (2-2 SU and ATS)
The Patriots, coming off one of their most stunning losses short of last season’s Super Bowl upset, look to right the ship when they return from their bye by making a West Coast trip to Monster Park to take on the 49ers.
New England got punched in the mouth by Miami two weeks ago in a 38-13 loss as a 12½-point home chalk. The Pats gained just 215 total yards – one yard less than the Dolphins had on the ground alone, as Miami finished with a whopping 461 total yards. New England also failed to force any turnovers, while committing two.
San Francisco had its two-game SU and ATS winning streak snapped in last week’s 31-17 loss at New Orleans as a four-point ‘dog. The Niners had a fair offensive day, with 312 total yards, but they got plowed over by the Saints’ high-octane offense, which finished with 467 yards, paced by QB Drew Brees’ 363 passing yards and three TDs.
New England and San Francisco have met just three times in the past 10 years, with the Pats going 3-0 SU and ATS. Most recently, New England earned a 21-7 home win in 2005 laying 13 points.
The Patriots have cashed just once in their last nine games, yet they still carry positive ATS trends into this game of 10-3-1 against the NFC, 8-3 coming off the bye, 14-4-1 after a SU loss and 14-5 on the highway. The 49ers are on a 4-1 ATS run hosting the AFC, but they are on ATS skids of 3-7 after a SU loss and 1-4 against winning teams.
The under is 4-1 in New England’s last five overall, 5-2-1 in San Francisco’s last eight overall and 5-1 in its last six at Monster Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONELogged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #33 on: Today at 01:20:43 AM »
Pittsburgh (3-1, 2-2 ATS) at Jacksonville (2-2, 1-3 ATS)
The Steelers make their second straight prime-time appearance when they head south to nothern Florida to take on the Jaguars at Alltel Stadium in a rematch of last year’s exciting wild-card playoff battle.
Pittsburgh fended off Baltimore 23-20 in overtime, failing to cash as a six-point home chalk Monday night for its third consecutive non-cover. Neither offense was particularly proficient, with the Steelers getting slightly outgained 243-237 as Pittsburgh’s ailing backfield ran for just 69 yards. QB Ben Roethlisberger was a serviceable 14 of 24 for 191 yards with one TD and one INT.
Jacksonville also went to overtime last week, edging Houston 30-27 giving 6½ points at home. QB David Garrard was a typically efficient 23 of 32 for 236 yards and a TD in a very evenly played contest, as neither team committed a turnover and the Jags lost the total-yardage battle by a scant 11 yards, 386-375. For the second straight week, Josh Scobee kicked a game-winning field goal.
Jacksonville went to Pittsburgh last January and slugged out a 31-29 win as a 2½-point road favorite to knock the Steelers out of the playoffs. The Jaguars have won four straight against the Steelers and are on a 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Finally, the home team is on a 15-5 ATS tear in this rivalry, but the underdog has gotten the money in the last six.
The Steelers are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games on the highway (1-5 ATS) and are on further ATS slides of 4-9 overall, 1-4 after a SU win and 3-8 against the AFC. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have cashed just twice in their last seven outings, but they carry a 6-2 ATS mark in their last eight against winning teams.
The over for Pittsburgh is on stretches of 6-2 overall and 5-1 against the AFC, and for Jacksonville, the over is on streaks of 19-7-2 overall, 4-1-2 at home and 9-2-2 against the AFC. However, the under is 6-1 in the last seven Steelers-Jags clashes in Jacksonville.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE
N.L. DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
Philadelphia (2-1) at Milwaukee (1-2)
Having staved off elimination with a Game 3 victory Saturday, the Brewers once again face a must-win situation this afternoon when they send veteran Jeff Suppan (10-10, 4.96 ERA) to the mound at Miller Park, while the Phillies counter with Joe Blanton (4-0, 4.20).
J.J. Hardy went 3-for-4 and was one of four Brewers to drive in runs, and five Brewers pitchers kept Philadelphia in check en route to Saturday’s 4-1 victory, Milwaukee’s first postseason win since 1982. The Brewers, who snapped a seven-game losing streak to the Phillies with last night’s victory, have now won seven of their last eight home games and they’re 50-32 at Miller Park this season. However, they’re still mired in slumps of 4-13 against winning teams and 1-9 against N.L. East foes.
The Phillies, who got swept in last year’s divisional round and are looking to advance to their first N.L. Championship Series since 1993, are still on runs of 15-4 overall, 5-2 on the road, 8-1 against the N.L. Central, 13-4 versus winning teams, 20-8 against right-handed starters and 55-27 on Sundays.
Despite struggling against the Phillies this year (2-7), the Brewers have won nine of the last 11 meetings in Milwaukee. Also, the home team is 8-1 in the nine battles in 2008.
Suppan gave up one run on five eight hits in five innings in his final regular-season start on Sept. 26, pitching the Brewers to a critical 5-1 home win over the Cubs. Despite that effort, Suppan struggled mightily in September, going 0-3 with an 8.44 ERA in five starts, four of which Milwaukee lost. The veteran went 3-3 with a 4.36 ERA in 13 home starts this year.
Suppan is just 3-6 with a beefy 6.13 ERA in 12 career starts against the Phillies, including 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA in two outings this year. In fact, going back to his days with the Cardinals, Philadelphia is on a 7-0 run in games started by Suppan. Also, he’s 3-3 with a 3.00 ERA in nine career playoff starts.
Blanton started the season in Oakland, where he went 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA in 20 starts before being traded to Philadelphia, where he was unbeaten in four decisions, including going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his final three regular-season outings. The Phillies went 9-4 in Blanton’s 13 starts, including 3-3 on the road, where the burly right-hander wsa 5-3 with a 5.37 ERA overall this year (2-0, 4.96 ERA with Philadelphia).
Blanton’s lone career start against the Brewers was on Sept. 14 in Philadelphia, and he allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits in seven innings, getting a no-decision in his team’s 7-3 victory. Finally, his postseason experience is limited to one relief appearance with the A’s in 2006, and he pitched two scoreless innings against the Tigers.
The under is 3-0 in the last four meetings between these teams (3-0 in this series) and is on further runs of 7-1 for the Brewers overall, 5-1 for the Brewers at home, 40-17-4 for the Brewers against the N.L. East, 8-3 for the Phillies overall, 5-1 for the Phillies on the road and 5-1 for the Phillies in the playoffs. Finally, the under is 7-0 in Suppan’s last seven starts against the N.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
A.L. DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
Tampa Bay (2-0) at Chicago White Sox (0-2)
The White Sox return to U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago looking to stave off elimination, and they’ll send southpaw John Danks (12-9, 3.32) to the hill against the Rays’ Matt Garza (11-9, 3.70) in Game 3 of this best-of-5 American League Divisional Series. It’s the first playoff start for both pitchers.
Tampa Bay took the first two games at home, winning 6-4 on Wednesday and 6-2 on Friday, when lefty Scott Kazmir got through a shaky first inning to get the win. The Rays have now won seven of the last eight matchups with the White Sox, including two of three in Chicago in late August. Tampa’s pitching has allowed just 13 runs in the last seven wins over the White Sox.
Tampa is 0-5 in Garza’s last five outings against A.L. Central squads, but they are on runs of 7-3 overall, 4-1 against teams with a winning record, 5-1 after a win and 9-3 following an off day. Meanwhile, Chicago is just 1-5 in Danks’ last six outings against the A.L. East and the White Sox are just 3-7 in their last 10 overall, but they are on positive runs of 42-18 at home, 8-2 in playoff games, 5-1 in home playoff contests and 39-14 at home against teams with a losing road record.
The Rays have struggled with Garza on the hill lately, losing five of his final seven regular-season starts, including a 4-3 road loss in Detroit eight days ago when he allowed three runs in five innings. Garza was 4-6 with a 4.53 ERA on the road, and the Rays won just five of his 15 starts on the highway. Finally, he is 1-1 with a 4.97 ERA in three career starts against Chicago in just 12 2/3 innings of work, but hasn’t faced them since he was in the Twins’ rotation last September.
Danks was magnificent for the White Sox in their one-game playoff to decide the A.L. Central champ on Tuesday, blanking the Twins on two hits for eight innings of the 1-0 victory. He’s shutout the opposition in three of his last four starts but those are the only three wins Chicago has in his last eight appearances.
Danks faced the Rays three times this season, dominating them twice in Tampa and allowing three runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 9-4 home loss in August. For his career, Danks is 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA in 24 1/3 innings against the Rays.
The under is 5-2 in Garza’s last seven roadies, but otherwise the Rays are on over runs of 5-1 on the road, 6-2 overall, 11-4 against A.L. Central squads and 7-2 on Sundays. The under is 7-3 in Danks’ last 10 home starts, 12-4 when he faces a team with a winning record and 22-8-2 in Chicago’s last 32 against the A.L. East, but the over is 6-2 in their last eight playoff games and 8-3 in their last 11 following an off day.
Finally, the under is 13-4 in the last 17 series meetings between these clubs, including Friday’s game that barely stayed under the 8½ total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
L.A. Angels (0-2) at Boston (2-0)
The Red Sox will try to make it 12 straight playoff wins over the Angels and finish a sweep of the team with the best record in baseball when they send Josh Beckett (12-10, 4.03) to the mound at Fenway Park opposite Los Angeles lefty Joe Saunders (17-7, 3.41).
Boston got a dramatic 7-5 win Friday in Anaheim when J.D. Drew drove a Frankie Rodriguez pitch into the seats in the ninth inning for a two-run homer after the Angels had tied the game in the bottom of the eighth. Los Angeles won eight of nine against Boston in the regular season, but the Red Sox continue to dominate the postseason, winning 11 straight against the Halos, including divisional sweeps in 2004 and 2007.
The Angels have won five straight at Fenway, including a three-game sweep there in late July.
Los Angeles is 37-15 in Saunders’ last 52 starts, 5-1 in his last six on the road and 5-0 when he’s faced teams from the A.L. East, and overall the Angels are on current streaks of 7-1 on the highway, 22-10 against the A.L. East and 4-0 on Sundays.
Boston has lost Beckett’s last five home starts, but overall Terry Francona’s team is 63-26 in its last 89 at Fenway, 21-6 in the playoffs and 7-1 in divisional playoff home games.
Saunders was a road warrior for Los Angeles, going 10-3 with a 2.55 ERA as the Angels won 11 of his 15 starts on the highway. He came on strong in September, going 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA in five starts (all Angels wins), holding the opposition scoreless in his last two outings. Saunders beat the Red Sox three times this season, including twice at Fenway, allowing five runs in 12 innings of work. For his career, Saunders is 4-0 against Boston with a 2.89 ERA in 37 1/3 innings.
Beckett struggled with injuries this season but had a 2.70 ERA in his final three regular-season starts. This guy was untouchable during Boston’s October run last season, going 4-0 with a 1.20 ERA in 30 innings of work. For his postseason career, Beckett is 6-2 with a 1.65 ERA and has tossed three complete games, including a four-hitter against the Angels in last season’s divisional round, lead the Red Sox to a 4-0 win.
In six career regular-season starts against Los Angeles, Beckett is 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA, but both losses came this year as he gave up 12 runs (11 earned) on 20 hits in 13 1/3 innings (7.43 ERA), including a 9-2 home loss back on July 30.
The under is on runs of 4-1 in Saunders’ last five on the hill, but as a team, the Angels are on over streaks of 6-2 overall, 7-3 following an off day and 4-1 against a right-handed starter. Meanwhile, Boston is riding a bunch of under streaks, including 4-1 at home, 6-0 on Sundays, 4-0 overall with Beckett on the mound and 4-1 when he faces teams from the A.L. West.
Finally, the over is 11-5-2 in the last 18 Angels-Red Sox battles in Boston, and the teams easily topped the total with Friday’s 12 runs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #34 on: Today at 05:40:14 AM »
Tony Stevens
San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: San Diego Chargers -6.5
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #35 on: Today at 05:41:11 AM »
Big Al McMordie
Dolphins v Chargers
Pick: Miami
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #36 on: Today at 05:42:00 AM »
Brian Graves
Tennessee vs. Baltimore
Pick:Baltimore +3
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #37 on: Today at 05:42:39 AM »
Jimmy Moore
Chicago @ Detroit
Pick:Detroit +3.5
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #38 on: Today at 05:43:43 AM »
Jimmy Thompson
Seattle vs. New York
Pick:Over 43
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #39 on: Today at 05:45:30 AM »
Bobby Maxwell
Tampa Bay at DENVER -3½
The Bucs head to the Mile High City for this one and I don’t think they’re ready for this Denver offense that was clicking on all cylinders before a shocker last week in Kansas City. But a loss to the lowly Chiefs is exactly what the Broncos needed to wake up and get back to business and you’ll see them come out today and march up and down the field.
Tampa’s Brian Griese returns to Denver where he QB’d the Broncos for so long. He has been hot and cold with the Bucs, tossing three second-half INTs last week but they overcame it and rallied for a 30-21 win. Tampa Bay is just 1-9 ATS in road games against the AFC and today they are in one of the toughest places to get a win.
Denver fell 33-19 in Kansas City as a 9 1/2-point favorite. QB Jay Cutler has been solid all season and even had 361 yards passing against the Chiefs but threw two INTs. It was Denver’s run defense that fell apart, allowing 198 yards to Larry Johnson. Tampa isn’t going to have that kind of day running the ball and look for the Broncos to apply the heat to Griese.
All kinds of motivation for Denver in this one as they get their old QB and they have got to rebound from last week’s embarrassment in Kansas City. Play the Broncos to get this one somewhere in the 28-14 range.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #40 on: Today at 05:50:22 AM »
It’s a ‘Last Will & Testament’ Weekend Football Freebie from Sammy Jankus, The Reverse Barometer!
Yes, as ol’ Sammy prepares to go under the knife, I thought I’d give out my college and pro picks this weekend for free. Bear in mind that my practice of giving you the other side of what I think are the easiest games on the board has not been overly successful of late. Therefore, if I deal you a bunch of losers, you can say, “Hmmm, this guy IS having an unusally lucky season. Maybe I’ll just buy his plays next week and NOT play the reverse side.� Or if my flip-flop specials perform well against the spread, you might say, “Jeez, this guy really IS the Master of Disaster. I’ll buy his picks next week so I can make money from his misery.� See? It’s a real win-win situation!
SUNDAY NFL PLAYS
I like Chicago, New England and Buffalo as side plays.
In O/U action, I like Indianapolis-Houston UNDER, Chicago-Detroit UNDER, Buffalo-Arizona OVER and Cincinnati-Dallas OVER.
So your plays for Sunday are
1) 3* Indianapolis-Houston to go OVER the total of 47 points2) 3* (416) DETROIT (+3)
3) 3* Chicago-Detroit to go OVER the total of 44.5 points
4) 3* (424) SAN FRANCISCO (+3)
5) 3* (426) ARIZONA (-1)
6) 3* Buffalo-Arizona to go UNDER the total of 44.5
7) 3* Cincinnati-Dallas to go UNDER the total of 44
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #41 on: Today at 06:04:52 AM »
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY (Interconference Game Of The Year)
New England -3 over SAN FRANCISCO:
The Pats are 14-3 ATS on the road off a SU loss, while Bill Bellichick is 13-0 ATS vs the NFC West and he is 11-2 ATS off a SU & ATS loss if facing a .500 or better opponent. The Niners are 1-10 ATS and a dog vs an AFC team when off a non-division game and they are 2-10 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game. I know it’s a bit early in the NFL season for a game of the year, but I may not get a line that looks this good on this kind of play for the rest of the year. THe last time out for the Pats they were thoroughly embarassed by the Miami Dolphins and you can bet that Bill Bellichick rode their asses during the bye week and will have them ready to play today. Had brady not gone down then we would be looking at the Pats favored by at least 9 here. New England was ambushed by Miami’s Wildcat offense last week and they will now be facing a Niners offense that is a bit more conventional. The Niners offense is 15th overall and 15th in scoring, but anyone can do that vs Arizona, Seattle, Detroit and the Saints. Today that offense will take on a Pats defense that has given up their fair share of yards, but they are ranked 8th in the league in points allowed (19.3 ppg). Matt Cassell has struggled this year, but look for him to have a good day vs the Niners 19th ranked passing defense. The Niners defense is also ranked 22nd overall and 21st in points allowed. New England needs this game in the worst way and they always play good off a loss and good off a bye week. Last week the Niners struggled offensively vs a por Saints defense, while the defense also struggled in the game and I don’t see them having a strong game here vs an angry bunch of Pats. New England by at least 2 TD’s here.
4 UNIT PLAY (Power Angle Play Of The Week)
DETROIT +3.5 over Chicago:
This one actually has 2 very good Angles to go along with some solid trends. 1st Angle: Winless dogs, playing with rest, from game 4 on out are 21-3-1 ATS since 1990. Angle 2: 0-3 (or worse) division dogs off a bye week are 11-1-1 ATS. Detroit finally fired Matt Millen and I look for a spirited effort from the team today. The Bears played well over their heads last week vs a very good Philadelphia team and they may overlook the winless lions today. The Bears are 3-15 ATS away vs teams that allow 24 or more points and 1-8-1 ATS off a win vs a team off BB losses, while the Lions are 12-0 ATS as division home dogs vs an opponent that allowed 20 or more last week and 13-3 ATS after being outgained by 100+ yards in BB games, plus the dog is 7-1 ATS the last 8 meetings. The Lions will surprise today.
3 Team 6 Point Teaser Of The Week—-Indinapolis +3, Tampa Bay +9.5 & Philadelphia PK3 UNIT PLAYS
Arizona -1 over BUFFALO:
The Bills are 0-9 SU and 2-6-1 ATS before a BYE week, while the Cards are 10-3 ATS as non division home favs and 6-1 ATS vs the AFC. After their opening week thrashing of Seattle, The Bills have been living dangerously, as they needed a late TD to beat Jacksonville and then vs a pathetic Oakland team they needed a last second FG to beat them. Then last week the Bills beat a sorry St. louis team 31-14, but they were outgained by 103 yards in the contest. Last week arizona was embarrassed on the scoreboard, as they lost 56-35, but they still threw for 426 yards in the game and outgained the Jets by 95 yards. The Cards will bounce back today, while the Bills luck will finally run out. Zona by 7 here.
Tennessee -2 over BALTIMORE:
Tennessee is 11-2 ATS away after allowing 17 or less for 3+ games in a row and 12-3 ATS away off a home win of 10 or more, while the Ravens are 4-13 ATS vs teams that force 2.5 or more turnovers a game and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss, plus teams are 6-20 ATS the last 26 games following Pittsburgh, with the Ravens going 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after playing Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco still is not playing very well and today he will take on the 8th ranked passing defense, that has allowed just 203 ypg and 1 TD, while picking off 8 passes, plus the Titans are ranked tops in sacks. The Titans have not missed a beat since losing vince young and they should be able to come up with enough plays vs this tough defense to get a solid road win here. I don’t see the Ravens getting to double digits in this one as the Tennessee defense will come up big and force Flacco into a ton of mistakes. Tennessee pulls away in the second half here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Indianapolis/ Houston Over 48.5:
The Over is 13-1 when the Colts are away off an upset loss to a division rival and 7-0 when they failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, while the Over is 10-0 when Houston faces a division rival and 10-3 vs teams that allow 61% or more pass completions. Thelast 6 in this series has all gone over the total, with an average of 55.2 ppg being scored. Neither offense has gotten on track this year, but both defenses have been pretty bad and I see plenty of points in Houston today.
3 Team 6 Point Teaser—- Atlanta +9.5, Kansas City +15.5 & Tampa Bay/ Denver Over 40.5I ALSO LIKE
Indianapolis -3 over HOUSTON
1 UNIT PLAY
Tampa Bay +3.5 over Denver:
The Broncos are 0-10 ATS after a game in which they gained 6+ yards per play and 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games as a fav, while the Bucs are 16-5 ATS vs teams that average 7.5+ yards per pass. The Denver defense is trully horrible and it is taking on a Tampa offense that has found some confidence. We also note in this one that teams have gone over the total in their first 4 games of the season are 1-14-2 ATS. The Broncos offense is one of the best but the Bucs will slow them down enough to come up with a big win here.Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #42 on: Today at 06:10:24 AM »
WILD BILL
Titans -2 1/2 (5 units)
Chiefs +9 1/2 (5 units)
Giants -7 (5 units)
Seattle-Giants Over 43 1/2 (5 units)
Patriots -3 (5 units)
Bengals-Cowboys Over 44 (5 units)
Steelers +3 1/2 (5 units)
Saints -3 (5 units)
MLB
Phillies -110 (5 units)White Sox -135 (5 units)
Tampa-CWS Under 8 1/2 (5 units)
Angels +165 (5 units)
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #43 on: Today at 06:11:31 AM »
Brian Sherwood
JACKSONVILLE –4 over Pittsburgh
Man, this one just sets up so beautifully for the home side. The Steelers sure have been living a charmed life thus far and that was never more evident then last Monday night when they pulled another rabbit out of their hat. The Steelers are down to their third or fourth string running back and that likely means they’ll have to rely on Roethisberger’s arm. Furthermore, they’re coming off that big win, on a Monday Night no less, and that was about as smash-mouth a game as there has been all year. Now, the Steelers run defense has some pretty sweet numbers but they have not played anyone that possesses a strong running game yet with the exception of Philly and Brian Westbrook but Westbrook had just five carries before he was injured in that game. Two of the Steelers three wins were unimpressive at best and now they’re asked to travel on a short week after a an emotional come-from-behind win and they’ll be playing a team that is getting more fine-tuned each week. The Jags two losses have come against the Titans and Bills, two of the three undefeated teams but more then that is that Jacksonville catches the Steelers at precisely the right time. Pittsburgh can barely field a team right now and they’re extremely vulnerable, more so then ever. Play: Jacksonville –4 (Risking 2.17 units to win 2).
MIAMI +6½ over San Diego
I’m a little gun shy to play the Dolphins straight up after choosing to play on the money line on two games last week that I would’ve otherwise won (Baltimore and Florida Atlantic). However, I do like the Fish straight up because these Chargers have showed us zilch so far and you can triple that after they went into that circus act in Oakland last week and got extremely lucky to emerge with a win. The Chargers two wins have come against the Jets and Raiders and they didn’t look good in either, despite putting up 48 against the Jets. LT looks like he’s almost finished, as years of abuse are beginning to take its toll. The Chargers defense is also a liability, as they have not shown the ability to stop anyone. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are coming off that impressive win over the Patriots followed by last week’s bye. That win gave them a big boost of confidence and slowly but surely, Bill Parcells imprint on this squad is beginning to show. He’s now had two weeks to prepare his team for a Chargers squad that’s traveling halfway across the country. Parcells vs Norv Turner is equivalent to Bill Gates vs Mike Tyson is a game of scrabble. Also worth noting is the incredible record against the spread of teams getting points at home after a bye week, which now stands at 38-8. Play: Miami +6½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
It’s always risky playing on teams that have yet to win but the Texans are not even close to being the league’s worst. They’re somewhere in the middle of the pack and a tough schedule to open the year hasn’t helped either, as they’ve played at Pittsburgh, at Jacksonville and at Tennessee. Now they’ll finally get a chance to play at home after Hurricane Ike forced the postponement of their home opener. What I do know is that the Colts defense can be pushed around worse then any team in the league and frankly, this team should be 0-3 and not 1-2. The Colts have been a perennial powerhouse for years and that fact has them favored here but this is a team in big trouble, as they can’t stop anyone and the Texans are very capable of moving the chains. The problems that plagued Indianapolis in the opening game loss at Chicago cannot be dismissed as simply the product of an off night. The Colts have been completely off all year, as they’ve been soundly beaten at the line of scrimmage and that’s not likely to change here. When the Colts were a powerhouse they had trouble at this venue and now they’re a whole lot worse. Keep the points. Play: Houston +1.50 (Risking 2 units).
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #44 on: Today at 06:12:51 AM »
RANDALL THE HANDLE’S NFL SELECTIONS
THE BEST
Buffalo @ Arizona
We must commend the Bills on their impressive 4-0 start.However, when they need consecutive 4th quarter comebacks, against tandem (Rams and Raiders) that have fired their respective coaches since, a peek under the hood is required. Buffalo has strengths but still lacks maturity and a long trip here to face an embarrassed Cardinals squad does not bode well in a game where we only need pick the winner.TAKING: Arizona -1.10 RISKING: 2.2 units to win 2
Tampa Bay @ Denver
Denver’s stock dropped after its stunning loss to the lowly Chiefs but that allows us to take advantage of a jaded marketplace. Give us the ascending Jay Cutler spotting a mere field goal over the unspectacular Brian Griese and you can count us in. While the Broncos had an uncharacteristic four turnovers last week, the Bucs lead the league with seven interceptions thrown. Note that Mike Shanahan has defeated Jon Gruden in eight of last nine encounters.TAKING: Denver -3 -1.17 RISKING: 2.34 units to win 2
Kansas City @ Carolina
Oddsmakers are regarding Kansas City’s stunning upset of the Broncos as a fluke and have instilled the Panthers as a big fave here. While one win does not suddenly have the Chiefs scaring anyone, they are certainly more worthy than this pointspread would indicate. The Panthers are notorious for failing as a heavy chalk. Carolina’s style is much like this visitor’s and that calls for a conservative affair, keeping this game well within range.TAKING: Kansas City +9 ½ RISKING: 2.10 units to win 2
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #45 on: Today at 06:23:01 AM »
Nostradamus
SD/Miami Under 44.5
NY Giants -7
Tenn/Balt Under 33.5
Green Bay -3.5
Arizona -1
Pitt/Jack Under 36.5
San Antonio +4
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #46 on: Today at 06:32:23 AM »
Jeff Benton
For Sunday we’ll lay the big chalk with the Cowboys at home against the Bengals.
I don’t really care if Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer goes today or not – obviously, Dallas would figure to have an easier time if Palmer sits in favor of inexperienced backup Ryan Fitzpatrick. But with or without Palmer, this shouldn’t be much of a contest against a Cowboys squad that you know is still seething from last week’s 26-24 home loss to the Redskins as a 10½-point favorite.
I look at that defeat as a big-time wake-up call for Romo and the ‘Boys, and they’re going to look to make a statement against the winless Bengals. Shouldn’t be too difficult to do that, as Cincinnati is averaging just 13 points and 232 total yards per game, scoring 12, 7 and 10 points in three of the losses. Defensively, the Bengals are giving up 22 points and 330 yards per game, but those seemingly impressive numbers are misleading because Cincy has faced three weak offenses (Cleveland, Tennessee and Baltimore). The one time the Bengals went up against a quality offense, the Giants put up 26 points and 406 total yards, with Eli Manning going 26-for-43 for 289 yards and a TD.
Granted, Cincinnati had a season-high 23 points and covered its only pointspread in that contest in New York. However, the Giants were in a big-time flat spot that day, coming off a blowout road win over the crappy Rams and having their bye week on deck. No chance the Bengals catch the Cowboys similarly napping, not after what happened last week.
Dallas has scored 28, 41, 27 and 24 points in its four games, and I honestly think they can name the score here. Put it this way: If Dallas can go to Cleveland and beat the Browns 28-10 – the same Browns that went to Cincinnati last week and won 20-12 – I don’t see how the Bengals compete in this one. Lay the big price as we’re looking at a 42-17 final.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #47 on: Today at 06:33:42 AM »
Scott Delaney
Chad Johnson’s big-ass mouth will once again get him and his team in trouble. He thinks he’ll be kissing the Cowboys Star, but when it’s all said and done, I really hope Terrell Owens has him kiss something else. Honestly, I think this Ocho Cinco pendejo is all about himself, while I can tolerate T.O. because I believe he truly cares about winning the game – not what he does personally. That all being said, bad spot for the Bengals to come to Big D, as the Cowboys are off that disappointing loss to Washington, and will be looking for a reason to run the score up on someone. Enter Johnson/Ocho Cinco, who provided bulletin board material for the Pokes earlier this week.
Like him or hate him, Tony Romo put up 300 yards and 3 touchdowns on an off day (against the ‘Skins), and since the Cowboys will be able to run all day against the Bungals, I expect Romo to infuse Owens in the system early and often for two reasons … one, because he’s the most dangerous receiver in the game, and two, to diffuse any bad feelings after last week’s loss, after which Owens expressed some displeasure with the play calling. Guys, you can fully expect Romo to look like the same quarterback who threw all the Browns in Week 1.
It’ll be another 300-plus yard game, to go along with a touchdown or three, while running tank Marion Barber will just tenderize Cincinnati’s defensive line with his bruising style in the trenches. Trust me when I tell you this will be the most balanced offensive attack of the week, as we’re going against a Cincinnati defense that has allowed 164.2 yards per game on the ground. And yes, the team ranks fourth in the league in pass defense, but three of the first four opponents either run or don’t have a passing game. Just lay the chalk and enjoy the win, there’s not much more I can tell you.Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #48 on: Today at 06:34:29 AM »
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take the Packers at Lambeau.
Yes I know all about the numerous Green Bay injuries which include Aaron Rodgers who is expected to be a gametime decision. Matt Mauck very well may get the start for Green Bay and Brian Brohm may be right there waiting in the wings. That obviously does not sound too inspiring as neither of those guys are close to Matt Ryan but the Falcons on the road have been a disaster twice already this season and the third time truly should not be a charm.
Atlanta is still one of the weaker teams in the NFL. They are 2-2 thanks to home victories against the dregs of the league in the Lions and Chiefs and lost both road games badly in combining for 18 points and no touchdowns in the losses in Carolina and Tampa Bay. Green Bay is a very physical team ala the Panthers and Bucs and will confuse the young Ryan and just pound him play after play after play.
Lambeau Field is still a tough play for visitors and with the way the Falcons have been performing (or not performing away from the cozy Georgia Dome) I am all about the home Pack, even as shorthanded as they are.
This game will be far from a thing of beauty but in the end I’ll eat the cheese here!
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #49 on: Today at 06:35:50 AM »
Tony Weston
Of course I nailed my Comp Play winner last night as USC came through rather easily in front of the home fans. It was an easy winner and I’m getting another easy winner today.
We’re switching gears and heading to the NFL as we’re taking the Colts over the Texans this afternoon.
While Indy has not been nearly as effective as most figured, the Texans are even worse so far this season. Houston is 0-3 SU and only 1-2 ATS this season and has scored more than 17 points only one time and that came in a three-point overtime loss at Jacksonville last week as the Texans lost 30-27.
Now Houston gets an Indy team that is coming off a week off and owns a 9-1 SU record against it, with the teams splitting the money the last 10 meetings.
The Colts come into this game 5-2 ATS their last seven games on the road, while the Texans are 2-5 ATS against division opponents and are 4-9 ATS overall against the AFC.
Don’t sleep on Indy as the team may still make a run to close out the year. That’ll start today with a dominating effort against the Texans. Take Indy on the road today.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #50 on: Today at 06:38:07 AM »
Tom Stryker
Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play:Tennessee Titans -1
Off a Monday night loss at Pittsburgh, the knee-jerk reaction would be to side with Baltimore and its tenacious defense especially with a 4-0 SU and ATS Tennessee team coming to town. I wouldn’t do that if I were you. Jeff Fisher’s stop unit has played extremely well this season (allow an avg of 11.5 ppg) and they have the talent needed to keep the Ravens off the scoreboard.
Even though these two clubs haven’t met since November of 2006, the road team in this series has been a dominant force posting a solid 31-17 ATS record. In surprising fashion, the guest has played even better provided the host owns a won/loss percentage of .500 or better notching a powerful 22-8 ATS mark! Tennessee has played well on foreign soil too. In fact, as a guest coming off two or more home games, the Titans are a solid 20-11 SU and ATS including a nearly perfect 9-1 ATS in this set coming off back-to-back straight up wins.
As tempting as it might look to grab the points here, this is not the spot for Baltimore. After battling the Steelers, the Ravens have struggled something fierce matched up against an opponent that checks in off a straight up win posting a soft 7-14 SU and 6-14-1 ATS record. In this role priced as an underdog of +7 or less, Baltimore is a horrendous 0-9 SU and ATS. Additionally, the Black Birds are a stunning 0-6 SU and AS in their last six priced as a home dog and carrying a won/loss percentage of .500 or better.
The Ravens are still limited offensively with rookie QB Joe Flacco behind center and his lack of experience is a liability. Meanwhile, Titans QB Kerry Collins has started in 152 career games and he knows how to get the job done. Take Tennessee!Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #51 on: Today at 06:42:31 AM »
Tony Mathews
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Selection: Houston Texans +3.5
The line we’re looking at now is really quite shady; maybe even the most suspect of the whole weekend. The general public loves the Colts, no doubt, but you have to wonder what’s the reason. The fact is, there is no evidence that Indianapolis can pull this off.
Houston isn’t looking so hot either; they are already at 0-3. But the Texans haven’t played one single home game yet this season after having the lone home game against Baltimore postponed which is an unfortunate start for anyone. They have done OK except for turnovers, which have them at -3 for the season so far. Last week, The Texans did manage to out-gain the Jaguars and in their 3 other games they were only out-gained by a total of 86 yards.
Since this is their first game at home, emotions will be running high for the Texans who have won 8 of their last ten games at home (dating back to last season). Houston has its next 4 games at home. The colts were good last season with a record of 3rd in least yards allowed. But this season they’ve gone past 8th, mostly in their previous 3 games. Their most recent defeat allowed a total of 403 yards which included 199.3 yards per game on the ground; putting them at second to last in the entire League.
The Texans have been up against three difficult defenses lately including Pittsburgh and Tennessee, and have averaged 100 yards per game. The deteriorating Colts make a great opportunity for rookie RB Steve Slaton to make a breakout.
There are serious issues in the Colts offense and they are now ranked 17th in total offense. They are the worst on the ground in the NFL with an average of 62 yards per game. And Peyton Manning is still not 100%, evidenced by his 24th QB rating. The Texans, on the other hand, are ranked 9th in passing defense which has the potential to cause serious difficulties for the Colts.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #52 on: Today at 07:18:59 AM »
Rocketman Sports
- Kyle Busch vs #24 Jeff Gordon
Play 3* #24 Jeff Gordon +100
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #53 on: Today at 07:20:15 AM »
Brian Gabrielle
New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers
Take the New England Patriots
Winning teams generaly do well off bye week, (covering near 67% of the time), and nobody needed the bye week quite like the New England Patriots. Additionally, no team can utilize a bye week quite like Bill Belichuck. Give him an extra week and he’ll have Sam Cassell looking like Tom Brady – especially against a soft San Francisco defense. Patriots 24, 49ers 18 Take New England
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
Take the Houston Texans
Losing teams off a bye week are notoriously bad against the spread and especially so on the road, as is the case today with the Colts. Wrong chalk.
Houston 24, Indianapolis 23
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #54 on: Today at 07:21:07 AM »
Steve Zukiel
San Diego Chargers vs Miami Dolphins
EZ Free Winner In this contest, my money is on the Miami Dolphins. It’s a West Coast team going East Coast for a 1:00 EST game, which means this is like a 10:00 am game for the Chargers. I look for them to be a little flat for this one, especially in the early going. The Chargers are also in a tough spot here. They are off a 1 point loss to the Denver Broncos, a Monday Night football game, a road game versus Oakland and they are playing a Sunday Night football game next week versus New England. I like the points here. Take the Dolphins. STEVE ZUKIEL TAKES THE MIAMI DOLPHINS OVER THE SAN DIEGO CHARGERS AS AN EZ FREE WINNERLogged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #55 on: Today at 07:27:42 AM »
John Fina
Selection: Tampa Bay/Denver Over 46.5
Today we see a high-scoring game as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers do battle with the Denver Broncos. In all four of their games this season, the result has always been the “Over” for Denver Broncos games. This is no coincidence. The reason is that the Broncos are pretty much unstoppable. In their last 3 games, they have allowed an average of 34.3 points while themselves averaging a total of 34 points against their opponents. Denver’s defensive front qualifies as one of the worst in the NFL with pedestrian linebackers and an abating cornerback in Dre Bly. This is going to prove to be an excellent opportunity for the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden is excellent and offensively orientated which makes up for the lack of skill players. QB Brian Griese will dig into the defensive holes. Tampa Bay also has Earnest Graham who usually doesn’t get the credit he deserves and an experienced Warrick Dunn to further torment the defense. As a result we’ve seen Tampa go “Over” in all but 2 of their last 10 games (dating back to last season). While the Buccaneers defense is decent, it isn’t a dominating one and won’t be able to do much about Broncos QB Jay Cutler’s passes. They currently have one of the very best WRs in the AFC with Brian Marshall. At home they’ve gone “Over” in all but 3 of their last 17 games (dating back to last season). It’s also good to note that when following a loss in Denver the Over is 11-1 in the last 12 games. Take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Denver Broncos Over 46.5!Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #56 on: Today at 07:38:25 AM »
LT Profits
Chicago Bears -3.5
Now we normally shy away from seemingly obvious selections like the Chicago Bears being favored over the lowly Detroit Lions by just over a field goal, but we feel that in this case, the line is being kept down artificially because some people actually think the Lions will suddenly improve with the firing of general manager Matt Millen!
Well, we feel that Vince Lombardi would have a difficult time getting something out of this Detroit team right now if he came back from the grave, so we will cast our paranoia aside and accept this bargain line for just what it is.
The Lions have not even been competitive in their fist three games, as all those contests were over at halftime. Detroit has had a propensity of trying to establish the run early to set up the pass later, That is all well and good except for the fact that the Lions have mediocre at best running backs and their offensive line has been horrible.
So perhaps their strategy this week will be to throw the ball straight from the get-go? Well the problem there is that the Bears put great pressure on the quarterback and they allow only 5.5 yards per passing attempt. The Chicago defensive number would only get better if Detroit became a one-dimensional passing team.
Now can the Detroit defense keep them in this game? Well, the Lions are allowing a whopping 430.3 total yards per game, and they are allowing an incredulous 5.6 yards per rush and 9.0 yards per pass attempt. Not to mention that they allow the most points in the NFL at 37.7 points per game, so the answer to the question would be no.
We feel that only the Bears conservatism could keep this game remotely close, but rookie running back Matt Forte has run very well vs. much better defenses already, and that should et up some nice play-action opportunities for Kyle Orton later.
Remember too that the Bear could very easily be 4-0 after their thrilling win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week instead of 2-2, and they should roll to an easy win here.
Pick: Bears -3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.0
The Denver Broncos were shocked by the lowly Kansas City Chiefs last week while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing excellent football at 3-1 right now.
Well yes, the Broncos are 3-1 also, but that is where the similarities end. The Broncos could have easily lost both of their home games thus far, so they more closely resemble a tram that is 1-3 than 3-1.
The problem for Denver has been a defense that has been torched for 29.2 points and 411.2 total yards per game. In their two home wins so far, they survived thanks to a terrible call by the referee vs. the San Diego Chargers and by a missed field goal in the closing seconds by the New Orleans Saints, winning those contests by a combined three points! Suddenly, losing to the Chiefs does not look that surprising.
Now the Buccaneers can be 4-0 right now, as they lost 24-20 in the final minutes to the Saints on opening week before their current three-game winning streak. The key to their success has been the running of Earnest Graham, as the Bucs are averaging 133.8 rushing yards per game on a nice 5.0 yards per carry.
Look for Graham to have success on the ground again vs. a Denver run defense that is allowing 132.8 rushing yards per game on a terrible 5.0 yards per rush, keying this mild upset.
Pick: Buccaneers +3
Phillies -115
Joe Blanton has proven to be a shrewd acquisition by the Phillies, and he ended the regular season with three Quality Starts. Philadelphia wraps up the series.
The Milwaukee Brewers kept hope alive with a 4-1 victory yesterday, but we look for the Philadelphia Phillies to dash those hopes today by wrapping up this series in four games and advancing to the NLCS.
Joe Blanton proved to be a nice mid-season acquisition for the Phillies, as he went 4-0 personally in a Philadelphia uniform and the Phils went 9-4 as a team in every game that he started. More importantly, Blanton may be pitching his best ball of the year right now, as he closed the regular season with three consecutive Quality Starts.
This stretch began with a very nice starts against these Brewers on September 14, during a 4-game Phillies sweep that helped propel the team to the division title and delegate the Brew Crew to a wild card spot. Blanton allowed three runs and just five hits in seven innings of that 7-3 victory.
While Blanton appears to be in peak form now, the same can certainly not be said for Jeff Suppan of Milwaukee, who failed to record a Quality Start in any of his last five starts, and who has a brutal 10.12 ERA and 2.44 WHIP in his last three outings. As if that is not bad enough, Suppan was lit up by these Phillies the last time he faced them, surrendering six earned runs and eight hits in just 3.2 innings.
Now neither of these teams have done much hitting in this series, but we feel that Philadelphia is more likely to get to Suppan and the shaky Brewers bullpen here than Milwaukee is to get to a hot Blanton and a great Phillies pen.
Pick: Phillies -115Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #57 on: Today at 07:44:45 AM »
Gina
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Look for the Colts’ and Peyton Manning to finally have a good day with the help of the Texans’ weak secondary, but Houston will bulldoze the Colts ineffective run defense with a relentless ground assault. Indianapolis is ranked #31against the run. Go with the Colts in a close high scoring contest. Indianapolis has won 11 of the last 12 meetings versus Houston and five of the last six in Texas.
Indianapolis Colts -3 & Over – 48
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Expect a physical defensive battle between these two AFC Central rivals. Pittsburgh is impaired, banged up with numerous injuries and Jacksonville will benefit. Go with the Jacksonville Jaguars at home to grab their fifth straight win over Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings versus the Jaguars, 0-4 ATS in their last four in Jacksonville.
Jacksonville Jaguars -5Logged
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #58 on: Today at 07:46:26 AM »
Chris Jordan
San Diego at MIAMI
Welcome to Miami, where there is a team that has had two weeks to get over a hang over from the biggest franchise win in quite some time. And what will Uncle Bill and coach Tone have in store for the Bolts this afternoon? I have no freakin’ idea, but I’m sure it’ll be entertaining. Only difference with this week’s opponent, it actually has a legitimate quarterback with the skills to challenge Miami’s offensive surge, and that’s why we just leave the side alone and play the over.
San Diego’s Philip Rivers will be the lynchpin today, as he’s is far more polished than young Matt Cassel, and most certainly has a quicker release than New England’s heir apparent (for this season anyway). Through the Chargers’ first four games, Rivers has been near-perfect with 10 touchdowns and a 109.8 quarterback rating. And we’ve seen the Dolphins’ secondary become vulnerable when there’s a veteran under center … think back to the Cardinals game, in which Kurt Warner burned corners Andre Goodman and Will Allen for more than 300 yards. Rivers has plenty of talent to throw to, and when your passing game is offset by LaDanian Tomlinson, it’s a no-brainer to expect close to 30 points against an exposed defense.
On the other side of the ball, well I can’t wait to see the gimmicks this week. Will Ronnie Brown be taking direct snaps? Who knows, but I can tell you it’ll be fun to watch the play calling for this one, particularly because the Dolphins have no injuries to speak of and will be awfully motivated to use every strength they have on offense to turn things loose on a Bolts team that will have traveled from one corner of the country to the other. That’s not an easy trip, and though we all know the corners won’t have to worry about Chad Pennington’s arm strength by the second half, my key to this one is Anthony Fasano, a reliable target who has caught 10 passes and a touchdown from Pennington, and another touchdown from Brown. Look for this one to get into the 50’s.
2♦ OVER
Seattle at N.Y. GIANTS -7
Forget the whole traveling back East thing, and forget about the Seattle offense getting acclimated with one another once again, now that some receivers are due back. What I want to know is how the Seahawks plan on stopping Brandon Jacobs. Yes, I admit Seattle’s run defense has held its own by slowing down San Francisco’s Frank Gore and St. Louis’ Steven Jackson, but neither one of those teams has an offensive line like this, and neither one of those teams end New England’s undefeated run in the Super Bowl last season.
Today is easily the Seahawks’ biggest challenge of the season, a 6-foot-4, 264-pound tank who is the Giants’ leading rusher, and simply softens up defensive lines throughout the first half, ‘til eventually you’re wore down and have no choice but to hope your secondary can produce solid coverage since you’re unable to put any pressure on the quarterback.
And that’s when Eli Manning takes over and helps his Giants make the statement that all the preseason talk about Dallas being the best team in the league, and the Patriots getting back to the Super Bowl (pre-Tom Brady injury, and the Chargers would challenge them … all that crap … was just nonsense. Even the present-day conversation about Tennessee, phooey! The Giants are the defending champs, and today, off their bye week, you’re going to see why.
2♦ GIANTS
Dr. Bob
I only have one Best Bet so far this week (I may add another when the line on the Atlanta at Green Bay came comes out – and I will email you with that analysis if I do have a Best Bet or Strong Opinion on that game). I haven’t had many Best Bets so far in the NFL, but I am 3-1 on my 4 Best Bets so far and I will start to have more Best Bets (I usually average 3 or 4 per week). But, I’m not going to have Best Bets just to have Best Bets and you get only what I play.
San Francisco (+3 1/2) 3-Stars at +3 (-115 odds or better) or more and 2-Stars from +3 (-120 or worse) to +1.
3 Star Selection
SAN FRANCISCO 23 New England (-3.5) 17
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2008, 09:54:25 PM »
Dr. Bob Opinions/Leans
BALTIMORE 17 Tennessee (-2.5) 16
The Ravens and Titans have had two of the best defensive teams in the NFL so far this season with Baltimore allowing just 3.5 yppl in 3 games and Tennessee yielding only 4.2 yppl. Baltimore’s defense has taken a couple of hits with the injuries to CB Samari Rolle and S Dawan Landry and the Ravens went from allowing just 2.7 yards per pass play in their first 2 games to given up 6.2 yppp to the Steelers on Monday night. Baltimore has a history of struggling against the pass when either Rolle or fellow CB Chris McAllister are out, but the secondary still looked decent last week and the run defense is outstanding (3.2 ypr allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.0 ypr against an average team). Tennessee won’t have any success running the football in this game, but Kerry Collins should post decent numbers by picking on backup CB Fabian Washington. Baltimore’s offense depends on the running of bruising back Le’Ron McClain (215 yards at 4.1 ypr), but the Titans are 0.6 ypr better than average at defending the run (3.8 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average team) and Ravens’ rookie quarterback Joe Flacco (just 4.6 yards per pass play) isn’t going to have any success throwing against a very good Tennessee pass defense that’s yielded just 4.5 yppp to teams that would average 5.8 yppp against an average team. Baltimore does have an edge in special teams, but my ratings favor Tennessee by 3 ½ points. I’ll still lean with Baltimore, however, based on a 122-54-8 ATS statistical indicator and a 74-32-3 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests the Ravens are the type of team that should cover as a home underdog.
Atlanta 0 GREEN BAY (pick) 0
I have a possible Best Bet on this game, but there is currently no line. Check back on Friday or Saturday (after the line goes up) for that analysis.
Chicago (-3.5) 26 DETROIT 19
It’s unlikely that Detroit will continue to play as poorly as they have been playing and bye weeks are usually a good tonic for ailing teams (underdogs after a bye are 40-20 ATS if they lost 3 or more consecutive games before their bye week), but I will still lean with the Bears in this game. Detroit has been out-gained by an average of 5.0 yards per play to 7.3 yppl by a mediocre schedule of teams and even significant improvement won’t be enough to win this game unless the Bears are completely flat. Chicago is still a below average offensive team (I rate them at 0.2 yppl below average), but the Bears’ defense has been very good so far in allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team. My ratings favor Chicago by 9 ½ points in this game and the line value favoring Chicago is more significant than the favorable situation applying to Detroit.
CAROLINA (-9.5) 27 Kansas City 16
Kansas City is much better with rookie quarterback Tyler Thigpen on the bench and Damon Huard was at quarterback last week when the Chiefs upset the Broncos. Kansas City was in a very good situation last week, so don’t overreact to that one win. The Chiefs’ pass attack is still bad with Huard at quarterback, as he was 0.7 yards per pass play worse than average last season (5.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and he has averaged just 5.5 yppp on 49 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp). Kansas City’s rushing attack suddenly looks pretty good (5.0 ypr) after Larry Johnson toyed with the Broncos’ defense for 198 yards last week. Overall the Chiefs are 0.5 yards per play worse than average offensively, but they’ll be up against a Panthers’ defense that’s allowed just 4.8 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Kansas City’s scoring opportunities will be limited and Carolina could easily pull away in this game with a slightly better than average attack going up against a bad KC stop unit that’s surrendered 6.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 ypppl against an average team. My math model favors Carolina by 15 points, but Kansas City applies to a very strong 55-16-2 ATS statistical profile indicator. The Chiefs also apply to a negative 19-50-1 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset win. I’ll lean with Carolina based on the line value even though the technical analysis slightly favors Kansas City.
HOUSTON 24 Indianapolis (-3.0) 23
Peyton Manning misses all of training camp and the pre-season and he hasn’t looked right the first 3 games of this season while averaging just 6.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback). The bye week should help Manning work out the kinks and I still rate the Colts’ pass attack among the league’s best, but Indy’s rushing attack has been bad (3.6 ypr) and Houston should be pretty fired up to be playing a game at home after starting the season with 3 road losses (home dogs or picks are 7-4 ATS at home after 3 consecutive road losses). I had high expectations for the Texans this season and I used them last week for a Best Bet winner in their 27-30 overtime loss as a 7 point dog. Houston’s offense finally played up to their potential last week, averaging 6.3 yards per play against the Jags, and that unit should perform well against a Colts’ defense that has had a tendency to struggle without reigning NFL Defensive MVP Bob Sanders in the lineup (he’s out 4 to 6 weeks with an injured ankle). The Colts gave up 403 yards at 5.8 yppl to the Jaguars in their first game without Sanders, which is a worse than average performance, and I think the Texans will move the ball pretty well in this game. Houston’s defense hasn’t looked good this season, allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, so Manning could bust out with a good game if the bye week served to get his timing back. My ratings favor Houston by 1 point, so I’ll lean with the Texans plus the points.
San Diego (-6.5) 27 MIAMI 21
The Chargers were lucky to get the spread win last week as a road favorite at Oakland, as they scored their final touchdown while trying to run out the clock after being down 0-15 at the half. The Chargers were in a bad situation last week and this week they face a Dolphins team that applies to a 38-8-3 ATS momentum situation and a 23-3 ATS home underdog off a bye angle. Miami destroyed New England 38-13 prior to their bye week and the Dolphins aren’t a bad team. Miami has a pretty good offense with a better than average rushing attack (4.4 ypr against teams that would allow 4.3 ypr to an average team) and a decent quarterback in Chad Pennington, who lit up the Patriots with 17 of 20 passing for 226 yards. Miami played great defensively against the Patriots, allowing just 3.7 yards per play, but they were exploited by Kurt Warner and the Cardinals for 7.8 yppl in week 2, so it’s tough to say how that unit will play today. San Diego’s explosive offense has averaged 6.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team and the Chargers should move the ball at their normal pace in this game (although I do think Philip Rivers will have a tough time keeping up the 8.5 yards per pass play average). Miami is certainly capable of keeping this game close against a mediocre Chargers’ defense that’s allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team (they miss Shawne Merriman). My ratings favor San Diego by 7 ½ points and using this year’s games only would result in a prediction of Chargers by 12 points. San Diego does apply to an 84-41-4 ATS situation, but that angle isn’t as good as the situational analysis that favors Miami. This game is tough to call with the line value favoring San Diego and the technical analysis favoring Miami.
PHILADELPHIA (-6.0) 21 Washington 12
Washington looked confused by their new offense in their opening 7-16 loss to the Giants, but the Redskins appear to have figured out the new attack and have won 3 straight games, including their upset win in Dallas last week. That win was no fluke, as the Redskins have established themselves as one of the best teams in the league. Washington is now 0.4 yards per play better than average on offense (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl) and they’ve only turned the ball over 1 time in 4 games. That good fortune isn’t likely to last but Washington can rely on their underrated defense is they start to turn the ball over more. Washington has allowed a modest 5.4 yppl this season, but they’ve done so by holding 4 very good offensive teams (NYG, New Orleans, Arizona, and Dallas) to 1.0 yppl below the 6.4 yppl that those teams would combine to average against an average defensive team. The pass defense has been especially impressive in holding Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, and Tony Romo to just 5.9 yards per pass play. Donovan McNabb has above average passing numbers (6.6 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback), but he’ll probably struggle some too against the Redskins great pass defense. Philly’s rushing attack has been bad (3.8 ypr) and star RB Brian Westbrook will miss his second straight game this week. Westbrook’s absence actually doesn’t make the offense any worse, as he was averaging just 3.8 ypr this season while good backup Correll Buckhalter has averaged 4.1 ypr and 4.4 ypr for his career. While Philly rates at 0.3 yppl better than average offensively, their defense is what makes the Eagles a Super Bowl contender, as they’ve allowed just 4.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit. These are two of the top teams in the NFL and my math favors Philly by just 4 points, which is too bad because the Redskins apply to a negative 1-17-1 ATS subset of a 14-45-2 ATS letdown situation that is based on their win as a big dog last week. I’ll favor Philly to cover based on that situation despite the negative line value.
NY GIANTS (-7.0) 26 Seattle 16
Seattle has been a below average team so far this season, but the Seahawks get some much needed help on offense with the addition of starting wide receivers Bobby Engram and Deion Branch, who have yet to play this season and have both been upgraded to probable for this game. Seattle has had to scramble to find receivers to fill their roster with Engram and Branch out and with Nate Burleson getting injured in the first game of the season. Only Billy McMullen has been good (7 catches for 124 yards on 15 passes thrown to him in 2 games) and the wide receivers have combined to average just 5.3 yards per pass attempted, which is a horrible figure for wide receivers. Bobby Engram has consistently averaged 8.3 ypa in recent years and Branch has an average of 7.5 ypa in two seasons with Seattle. Throwing those two in with McMullen should put Matt Hasselbeck at around 8.0 ypa to his wide receivers, which would result in going from 4.9 yards per pass play that Hasselbeck is at now to 6.2 yppp, which is his career average. Seattle has a good rushing attack (4.9 ypr against teams that would allow 4.6 ypr) and the Seahawks are suddenly an average offensive team after rating at 0.6 yards per play worse than average through 3 games. Seattle won’t likely have too much success in this game against a very good Giants’ defense that has been 0.9 yppl better than average (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Seattle’s defense has been mysteriously mediocre so far this season, allowing 5.2 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.2 yppl, and that unit is up against a good Giants’ attack that has averaged 6.2 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack). The suspension of Plaxico Burress hurts the attack, as Burress has gained 259 yards on 28 passes thrown to him (9.3 ypa) while the other receivers Smith, Toomer, and Hixon have combined for an average of just 6.9 ypa. After making all the adjustments I still get New York by 11 points mathematically. Seattle applies to a very good 38-8-3 ATS underdog momentum situation, but New York applies to a 64-29-4 ATS statistical profile indicator. I’ll lean with the Giants.
DENVER (-3.0) 27 Tampa Bay 26
Denver has been fantastic offensively this season (6.7 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Broncos can’t stop their opponents from being just as effective (they’ve also allowed 6.7 yppl – to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team). The visiting Buccaneers are nothing special offensively overall (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl), but Earnest Graham (334 yards at 5.9 ypr) and Warrick Dunn (197 yards at 4.7 ypr) should be able to run wild against a Broncos defensive front that’s allowed 5.0 ypr to teams that would combine to average just 4.2 ypr against an average team. Tampa Bay represents the best defensive team that the Broncos have faced so far (the Bucs are 0.4 yppl better than average), but Denver should still be able to put up enough points to keep up with what their defense allows. My math model favors Denver by 1 ½ points and there are indicators favoring both sides in this game, so I’ll lean with Tampa Bay plus the points.
New England (-3.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
This game is part of Dr Bob’s Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob’s Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here
DALLAS (-17.0) 33 Cincinnati 13
Cincinnati is now 0-4 after losing to the previously winless Browns last week and they will once again be without quarterback Carson Palmer, who was a game time decision to sit out last week’s game. Ryan Fitzpatrick was horrible, averaging just 3.7 yards per pass play against a Cleveland secondary that had been having problems defending the pass. Fitzgerald has averaged 4.8 yppp on 182 career pass plays and he’s also thrown 11 interceptions, which is a lot of picks for so few passes (he threw 3 last week). The Cowboys may not be in a sympathetic mood for the winless Bengals after getting upset by the Redskins last week and my math model favors Dallas by 20 points in this game.
ARIZONA (-1.0) 23 Buffalo 19
The Bills may be 4-0, but they’ve played a pretty easy schedule with just one decent opponent (a 20-16 win at Jacksonville) and they rate as below average from the line of scrimmage. Buffalo has averaged a modest 5.3 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and the Bills are just barely better than average defensively (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defensive unit). Buffalo annually has the NFL’s best special teams and they rank highly in that area again this season, so they are an above average team overall. Arizona, however, is also an above average team, as the Cardinals have been 1.0 yppl better than average offensively (5.9 yppl against teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yppl to an average team) and only 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). Arizona’s offense takes a hit with the injury to star WR Anquan Boldin, who had amassed 366 yards on 35 passes thrown to him this season (10.5 ypa). Kurt Warner still has Larry Fitzgerald to throw to (10.4 ypa on 40 passes thrown to him), but the two receivers replacing Boldin combine to average 8.1 ypa so there will be a drop in production from the pass attack – although it will still be good. My math favors Arizona by 3 points after adjusting for the losses of Boldin and DL Bertrand Berry, who had 3 sacks in 3 games before getting hurt. Arizona applies to a 31-6 ATS bounce-back situation while Buffalo applies to an 84-41-4 ATS situation. The line value favors the Cardinals, and the angle favoring them is a bit stronger than the situation favoring Buffalo. I’ll lean with Arizona to hand the Bills their first loss.
JACKSONVILLE (-4.0) 20 Pittsburgh 17
Jacksonville applies to a 46-11-4 ATS subset of a 122-54-8 ATS statistical indicator in addition to applying to a solid 240-152-12 ATS statistical profile indicator. While those angles are worthy of a play on the Jaguars, my math model suggest a play on the Steelers. Pittsburgh may be thin at running back, but losing Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall isn’t such a problem considering those two were averaging a combined 3.8 ypr this season. New starting back Mewelde Moore has a 4.8 ypr career average (although mostly in the advantageous role of 3rd down back) and he is a much better pass catcher, so having Moore get more snaps may help the offense. Pittsburgh will certainly probably throw the ball more and that is a good thing in this game considering how bad the Jaguars’ pass defense has been (7.4 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average team). Overall the Jags have been 0.7 yppl worse than average defensively, which is only slightly better than Pittsburgh’s offensive rating of -0.8 yppl. Where the Steelers have the advantage is their stifling defense (3.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) against a Jaguars’ attack that has averaged just 5.0 yppl in 4 games against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. Jacksonville is actually better than that offensively, as their patchwork offensive line struggled in the first two games with 3 new starters. The line has come together in recent games and Jacksonville has been 0.2 yppl better than average offensively over their last two games, which is about what I expect from them going forward. However, my math model favors Pittsburgh by 1 point even if I only use Jacksonville’s better offensive stats from their last two games. The line is too high and I’ll lean slightly with Pittsburgh even though the technical analysis strongly favors Jacksonville.
NEW ORLEANS (-3.0) 27 Minnesota 23
Drew Brees is playing at an incredible level, as he’s averaged 8.8 yards per pass play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow just 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. It may be tough for Brees to maintain that high level of play, but he should post good numbers against a Vikings’ defense that is once again very good defending the run (3.1 ypr allowed) but every mediocre against the pass (6.2 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppp against an average defense). Minnesota’s offense has been better since Gus Frerotte was inserted at quarterback in week 3, as the Vikings have averaged 5.0 yards per play the last two games against good defensive teams Carolina and Tennessee, who would combine to allow just 4.6 yppl to an average team. I expect Adrian Peterson to have a big game running against a soft Saints’ defensive front that’s allowed 5.4 ypr this season (to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defensive team). New Orleans has been average in pass defense, but Frerotte has been better than average in his two games, throwing for 5.8 yppp against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback. My math model favors New Orleans by 6 points and the Saints apply to a very good 61-21-2 ATS Monday night situation. Minnesota, however, applies to a 55-16-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator and a 56-16-5 ATS game 5 angle. Tough call here, but I’ll lean slightly with New Orleans.Logged
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2008, 06:37:04 AM »
POINT TRAIN
6* Jacksonville -4Logged
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2008, 06:24:35 PM »
The Prez
8* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys on 10/05/2008 at 1:15PM
Condition: Over
Conditions: 70 degrees with light winds swirling inside the mostly enclosed venue It was just a matter of time before the Cowboys experienced the bad “T.O Factor” and their first bit of adversity in 2008. After sleepwalking through a 26-24 loss to the Washington Redskins Sunday afternoon, the Boyz received their quarterly wakeup call. The call that nearly all NFL teams receive. Ask the Broncos? Dallas was admiring themselves far too much heading into last week’s divisional matchup against Washington—that all changed their home loss to the hated Skins.
Bengals’ defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, who spent 10-plus years with the Cowboys as an assistant coach and coordinator and is now the Bengals’ DC. He knows the subtle weaknesses of Tony Romo and will force his hand early on in this game. Expect the Bengals to give up everything underneath on Sunday afternoon, but eventually realize that Romo has grown enough to exploit the soft holes in their zones.
We expect zero man coverage from the Bengals, little to no blitzing and a ton of exotic looks. If Cincy had an ounce of talent on the stop-side of the football we’d consider giving them a chance and jump head first on the 17-points Dallas is giving up. Romo is careless, that’s his gunslinger mentality, and he’ll give the Bengals more than one short field on Sunday.
The winless Bengals are a mess; and with or without Carson Palmer this game is all about offense, big plays by both defenses and a lot of points as a result. With Palmer under center the two teams will combine to cross the 60-point mark, without him the contest still topples 50 in total points. There’s no guarantee Palmer will play (TP sources report he will throw on Thursday, practice on Friday and start Sunday), but the Cowboys are the real story here. They will be more balanced in their play calling and shred a piss pour Cincy defense. Dallas can throw four capable receivers at the Bengals defense and Cincinnati has no matchup answer for TE Jason Witten.
However, Dallas’ pass defense is suspect, and no matter who is tossing the football to Chad Ocho Cinco and T.J. Houshmandzadeh—this is the strongest total on the Week 5 card.
Once Palmer is announced as the starter for Sunday’s game, the total in this game will creep upward. Get down on the current 44 mark now.
The OVER is 6-1 in Bengals last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
The OVER is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games in October.
Cowboys score at least 35 points Sunday making this a Big Game OVER the TOTAL play.
8 UNIT Play on the OVER
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2008, 06:26:35 PM »
Jimmy Sirody
Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2008, 06:27:11 PM »
Vernon Croy
20 Unit NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK* (76% Overall this NFL Season)
New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers on 10/05/2008 at 1:15PM
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2008, 06:29:26 PM »
Stephen Nover
Double-Dime Bet
DEN / TAM Over 48.0
Analysis: The Denver Broncos have gone ‘over’ in all four of their matchups this season. It’s not a fluke. The Broncos can’t stop anybody, allowing an average of 34.3 points in their last three games, while averaging nearly 34 points.
The Broncos have one of the worst defensive fronts in the NFL. Their linebackers are below average, too. In addition, cornerback Dre Bly has slowed up considerably. Tampa Bay can attack this. The Buccaneers don’t have great skill position players, but they have a very sharp offensive-minded coach in Jon Gruden. He’ll have veteran Brian Griese probe Denver’s many weak spots. Earnest Graham is an underrated running back and veteran Warrick Dunn can be effective, too, versus this defense. The Buccaneers have gone ‘over’ in eight of their last 10 games.
Tampa Bay’s defense is good, but small. It’s not a dominant unit. Jay Cutler certainly can pass on the Buccaneers. Brandon Marshall may be the best wide receiver in the AFC right now. Denver has gone ‘over’ in 14 of its past 17 home games. The Broncos also have gone ‘over’ 81 percent of the time during their last 27 games on grass. The Broncos also are 11-1 to the ‘over’ following a loss.Logged
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2008, 06:30:25 PM »
Jeff Bonds
Double-Dime Bet
JAC -4.0 vs PIT
This game is an absolute gift at this price – considering that Jacksonville has been pretty much the only NFL team to enjoy success against Pittsburgh over the past 10 years.
It’s even more of a gift considering that Pittsburgh is coming off TWO highly physical games in back-to-back weeks (Philadelphia/Baltimore)....so physical – that both of its top running backs are banged up (one for the year).
This means Ben Roethlisberger is going to have to throw behind an offensive line that – to put it lightly – doesn’t have a prayer this Sunday with the recent injury to guard Kendall Simmons.
When Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has to throw the ball more than 20 times a game – the Steelers are a terrible 1-7 ATS in the last eight situations.
Jacksonville picks up a BIG VICTORY to keep them from going under .500 (a huge factor in the NFL) and moves the Pittsburgh Steelers to 0-15 ATS in their last 15 road defeats. They’ve failed to cover the previous 14 by more than 11 points!Logged
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2008, 06:33:31 PM »
Tommy Rider
Double-Dime Bet
PHI -6.0 vs WAS 2 UNIT PLAY
Double-Dime Bet
MIA +7.0 vs SDC 2 UNIT PLAY
This line is at +7 at Bodog so I would advise you to get it while you can. Analysis to come.
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2008, 06:35:01 PM »
Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
5 Chargers at Dolphins
I’m not sold that the Dolphins have turned things around after one stunning blowout win at New England. This is still a young, rebuilding team with a lot of holes and inexperience. The Chargers were not impressed with the way they beat New England, with trick plays and overshifts on the offensive line. “Gimmicky,” cornerback Quentin Jammer said. The Chargers have spent time each day this week preparing to face the Miami Dolphins and their highly successful version of the single-wing offense. The Dolphins call it the “Wildcat” offense, and they scored four touchdowns in six snaps against the Patriots. The key in this game is the Chargers versatile, wide open offense against a weak Miami ‘D’. This offense is No. 8 in the NFL and scoring a ton of points through the air and the ground. The Chargers are 13-4 SU/ATS as a favorite under Norv Turner. Miami doesn’t have strong wideouts and and QB Chad Pennington has just 2 TDs, one pick in 3 games. They won at New England with the ground game, but the Chargers have a speedy secondary and can focus all their defensive effort in stopping the run and blitzing, something they did a lot of in the second half last week at Oakland. The Dolphins are 1-7 SU/ATS their last 8 in Miami. Play the Chargers.
3* Chargers/Dolphins Over
Both defenses are ranked in the bottom half of the NFL, with the Chargers at 28th. The defense gave up 26 points to Carolina and 39 at Denver. At least the offense is loaded, ranked 8th in the NFL, with a great offensive line, plus QB Philip Rivers has 10 TDs and 4 picks, alongside RBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. They toasted the Jets in a 48-29 rout. Miami has defensive deficiencies that can be exploited by an good offensive mind like Norv Turner. Miami’s offense is much better this season, with a stronger offensive line, a capable, veteran QB in Chad Pennington, plus RB Ronnie Brown. The Dolphins are 17th in total defense with a very young unit. Look for a lot of scoring, play the Chargers/Dolphins over the totalLogged
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2008, 06:35:23 PM »
The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
“Private Investors Club” NFL GAME OF THE YEARJacksonville -4
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2008, 06:36:07 PM »
The Experts Guaranteed Selections
ULTIMATE EXPERTS NFL PLAY OF THE MONTHArizona -1
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2008, 06:37:13 PM »
ASA
5* Arizona CardinalsLogged
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2008, 06:38:16 PM »
Pointwise Phone Plays
2* Philadelphia2* Minnesota
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2008, 07:48:16 PM »
Big Al
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the SF 49ers plus the points over New England. Without Tom Brady, the Patriots’ vaunted offensive attack has sputtered. As evidence, consider that, at this time last year, WR Randy Moss had 22 catches for 403 yards and 5 touchdowns. But since QB Matt Cassel took over, Moss has only nine catches for 111 yards. Perhaps we should not be surprised that New England has fallen on hard times. After all, the Patriots lost the Super Bowl to the Giants last year, and for the last eight years, the loser of the Super Bowl has struggled mightily the following season. I’m not one to believe in jinxes, but it’s worth noting that the only Super Bowl loser to return to the Playoffs over the past 8 seasons was Seattle in 2006 (notwithstanding the face that the Seahawks posted four less wins that year). Also, dating back to 1986, .400 (or better) Super Bowl runners-up are an awful 0-18 ATS as road favorites of -4 or less (or pk) against non-division foes! Finally, .400 to .799 home dogs of +2.5 to +10.5 points are a super 39-10 ATS vs. foes off an ATS loss as a favorite of more than 10 points. With New England off a 38-13 loss as a 13-point favorite vs. Miami, we’ll fade the Patriots and take San Francisco on this Sunday.
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over Buffalo. Last week, Arizona was blitzed by Brett Favre and the Jets 56-35, but off that embarassing loss, fall into a super 26-0 ATS system of mine. For this game against Buffalo, Arizona has been installed as a favorite of a point, but since 1980, .181 (or better) NFL home teams are 26-0 ATS if they are not favored by more than 3 points; they lost their previous game, and surrendered 38 or more points in the process; and they are matched up against a .290 (or better) opponent which scored 28 or more in a win of more than 11 points in its previous game. With Buffalo off a 35-14 blowout of St. Louis, this Cardinals/Bills game perfectly qualifies in our 26-0 ATS system. The Cardinals opened the season with back-to-back wins, but have dropped their last two games to fall to 2-2 on the year. But since 1990, Arizona is a sparkling 40-18 ATS at home off 2+ losses, including 26-3 ATS when priced from -5.5 to +5 points. System Game of the Month on the Cardinals.
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over Buffalo. Last week, Arizona was blitzed by Brett Favre and the Jets 56-35, but off that embarassing loss, fall into a super 26-0 ATS system of mine. For this game against Buffalo, Arizona has been installed as a favorite of a point, but since 1980, .181 (or better) NFL home teams are 26-0 ATS if they are not favored by more than 3 points; they lost their previous game, and surrendered 38 or more points in the process; and they are matched up against a .290 (or better) opponent which scored 28 or more in a win of more than 11 points in its previous game. With Buffalo off a 35-14 blowout of St. Louis, this Cardinals/Bills game perfectly qualifies in our 26-0 ATS system. The Cardinals opened the season with back-to-back wins, but have dropped their last two games to fall to 2-2 on the year. But since 1990, Arizona is a sparkling 40-18 ATS at home off 2+ losses, including 26-3 ATS when priced from -5.5 to +5 points. Take the Cardinals
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2008, 07:49:02 PM »
Ron Raymond
NFL UPSET SPECIAL BEST BET PICK
Miami Dolphins +6.5
5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #16 on: October 04, 2008, 08:02:56 PM »
SPYLOCK
5 units San Francisco +3
Al Demarco
25 Dime
Denver Broncos -3Logged
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #18 on: October 04, 2008, 09:15:09 PM »
Andre Gomes
Chicago Bears / Detroit Lions
I know that going on a team that went so awful in the first three games looks strange, after all the Lions lost all three games by a mile and their defense is dead last in the rankings with 430.2 yards/game allowed.
After those dismal performances the Lions enjoyed a much needed bye week and this factor could be very important. Bye weeks are bad for teams that are enjoying a winning streak and the momentum could easily disappear, but on the other side, if a team is playing poorly a bye week is the best that could happen because the team will have more time to fix some errors.
That is the case of the Lions on this game: their defense looked dreadful in the first three games and an extra week to prepare this game is an important fact, meanwhile the team is already competent on the offense. The Lions have talented receiving tandem of Calvin Johnson (6-5, 239 pounds) and Roy Williams (6-3, 211), who creates matchup issues for every defense.
And the matchup is extremely favorable to the Lions, I remember that both the Bears’ starting cornerbacks are possibly sidelined—Charles Tillman (shoulder) and Nathan Vasher are questionable for this game and both missed several practices this week.
I read an interesting interview with Lions head coach Colleto who said the following:
“The philosophy hasn’t changed,” Colletto said Thursday. “We’ve just got to get on top a little bit quicker, do something sooner. We can’t play the run-run-pass, run-run-pass—we’re not gonna do that. And we haven’t, really, because of the score situation.”
“But we just want to be a little more aggressive.”
“We’ve got to manufacture more points faster,” Colletto said. “We’ll probably play a few more receivers in the game a little more often than we’ve been doing.
So I’m expecting that the Lions explore the secondary unit problems of the Bears and took advantage of them.
Meanwhile the Bears’ offense is having some problems as their passing leader Brandon Lloyd is out for this game. I remember that Lloyd in 4 games had 249 yards for 15 catches (16.6 avg) and without him, the Bears will miss the most important weapon to explore the worst passing defense of the league until now.
Their only reliable offensive weapon is RB Matt Forte, who is coming from a very physical and exhausting game last week against the Eagles, where he was both the rushing leader (19 carries for 43 yards) and the passing leader (5 catches for 42 yards) for the Bears, so is normal that he somehow might disappear in this game, because of the effort last week was so big that it’s almost impossible to carry on with so much effort made it.
I think the Lions are a valuable home dog in this game, they are 4-0 ATS after a bye week and this bye week was a bless for them, note also that they are 19-7 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992 and I expect the Lions to be competitive in here so I’m taking the Lions in this game.
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2008, 09:58:36 PM »
Kevin Kavitch
4* Arizona -1.5
Buffalo is the better team but I like this setup. Arizona is off a bad loss to the Jets where they fell behind big in the 1st half and couldn’t catch up. Their division is wide open and they have enough offense to play hard and bounce back at home. Buffalo is playing well but they aren’t special. The last 2 weeks they’ve been shaky, nipping Oakland late and trailing for quite awhile vs the hapless Rams. Some teams have a hard time mentally to deal with success and the way their past 2 games have gone they seem that way. Byes next week (Buffalo) can be a big red flag and sitting at 4-0 I don’t see them matching Arizona’s intensity in a non-conference game. One last thing. Well over 60% of the wagers have come in on Buffalo but Arizona has moved from a pick to a small favorite. Seen this movie before, smart money is on Arizona, public is on the 4-0 “red-hot” Bills. Take Arizona -1.5 for a 4* Regular Play.Logged
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #20 on: Today at 01:45:30 AM »
Maddux Sports
3 units on Baltimore +3
3 units on San Francisco +3.5
3 units on Arizona -1
3 units on Atlanta & Green Bay Over 40.5
3 units on Pittsburgh +5.5
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #21 on: Today at 06:07:07 AM »
Brian Hansen
AFC GOY
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #22 on: Today at 06:07:28 AM »
Tim Trushel
20* DetroitLogged
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #23 on: Today at 06:07:55 AM »
Erin Rynning
Playmaker BaltimoreLogged
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #24 on: Today at 06:46:02 AM »
Nathan Armstrong
5* Total Of The Month Denver/Tampa Under3* Giants
3* Cardinals
3* Cinci/Dallas Over
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #25 on: Today at 06:51:07 AM »
BEN BURNS
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers
Prediction: Under
Regardless of whether or not, Aaron Rodgers plays, I expect this to be a low-scoring affair. If Rodgers plays, he may not be at 100% and the Packers are likely to be a little more conservative in their play-calling in order to protect him and also due to the fact that he threw three interceptions last week. If he doesn’t play, the Packers will be very inexperienced at the QB position and will be even more cautious. Either way, after a season-low in rushing yards last week, we should be able to expect a heavy dose of the run here, as the Packers look to get that part of their game going again. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons figure to have real trouble scoring against this Green Bay defense. The Packers remain excellent defensively and the Falcons have managed a mere 18 points (9 in each game) in their two road games, both of which finished with identical 24-9 scores. Including those results, the Falcons have now seen the UNDER go 14-4 their last 18 road games. Meanwhile, the UNDER is 3-0-1 the last four times the Packers were home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Look for this afternoon’s game to be lower-scoring than most are expecting once again.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Prediction: Houston Texans
The betting public will always love Peyton Manning and the Colts while they’re particularly down on the Texans at the moment. At 1-2, the Colts haven’t played much better than the winless (0-3) Texans though and I believe that the “public sentiment” has given us excellent value with what will be a highly motivated home underdog. While the Colts are dealing with some key injuries (including Bob Sanders) I still believe that this is Houston team is better than it has shown. Keep in mind that the Texans were forced to play their first three games on the road due to the effects of Hurricane Ike. Last week, they traveled to Jacksonville and very nearly beat a very good Jaguars team, eventually losing by three. Note that the also lost a close one vs. Jacksonville in their last game.) Now the Texans return to Reliant Stadium where they’re a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four games and a highly profitable 8-2 SU/ATS their last 10. The Texans are 4-1 ATS their last five home meetings in this series. They had a season-high in yards last week and I look for them to earn at least the cover here.
San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Miami Dolphins
I believe the situation strongly favors the home dog here. After back to back covers, the betting public is back in love with the Chargers. However, while their Monday night cover two weeks ago was reasonably impressive (that was a home game) they were very fortunate to cover in last week’s win at Oakland. That game was a lot tougher than the score indicated as the Chargers were behind the entire way. Now they will be traveling across the country to play an early game (a situation which has given past Charger teams some trouble) which will also be their second of back to back road games. Note that the Chargers are just 1-5 ATS the last six times that they were road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. While the Chargers are off a hard fought game and in a difficult travel spot, the Dolphins are coming off a bye and brimming with confidence after blowing out the Patriots prior to their break. The Dolphins are 7-2 SU/ATS their last nine in this series and I look for them to give the Chargers all they can handle here, earning at least the cover.
Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: Under
Last week’s results have helped to give us excellent value here. Buffalo rallied to beat St. Louis by a 31-14 score, sneaking over the total. Meanwhile, Arizona combined with the Jets for a whopping 91 points, suffering a 56-35 loss. Obviously, the Arizona defense will be wanting to bounce back with a significantly better effort. It should be noted that many of those points were caused by turnovers. More importantly, note that the Cardinals had only allowed an average of 15.67 points through their previous three games, showing that they are actually much stronger than the score against the Jets indicates. As for the Bills, they’re allowing just 15.8 points per game. They’re also limiting opponents to a 19.8% third down conversion rate, which is the best mark in the entire league. Even with last week’s game (barely) finishing above the number, the UNDER is still a profitable 8-3 the last 11 times the Bills played on the road. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 19-8 the last 27 times that the Bills played a road game with a total ranging from pick’em to +3. During that same stretch, the UNDER was a highly profitable 64-38 in all Buffalo games which had a line the +3 to -3 range. The Bills played back to back road games twice last season and they averaged only 12 points in the second of those back to back games, most recently a 17-16 game vs. the Redskins. Last year’s lone road game played in October saw the Bills combine with the Jets for a mere 16 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 9-2 their last 11 October road games. While the Bills will be without receiver/returner Parrish, the Cardinals may well be without star wideout Boldin. Either way, I expect a fairly heavy dose of the run from both teams, which will help to keep the clock moving. Note that the Cardinals average 27 running plays per game while the Bills average 29. Look for a big game from both defenses and for the final score to prove much lower than expected, finishing below the inflated number. Non Conference Total of the Month
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Prediction: Detroit Lions
Detroit was a dismal 31-84 record with Matt Millen calling the shots. With the Millen era finally over and having had an extra week to prepare, I fully expect the Lions to play their best game of the season. Note that the Lions were 2-0 SU/ATS after their bye week the past two seasons. Last year, they entered their bye week having been crushed by a score of 34-3. However, with the extra week to recover and prepare, they responded with a 23-16 home win over Tampa. In fact, they came out of their bye week and went 3-0 SU/ATS their next three games, outscoring those three opponents (Bucs, Bears, Broncos) by a combined score of 83-30! Those results should give them some hope and should have helped to make the extra week of practice time that much more productive. While the Lions had a much-needed week off, the Bears are coming off a hard-fought and physical Sunday night game vs. the Eagles. Prior to that, the Bears played a very hard fought overtime game vs. Tampa. Despite having a losing record overall, Detroit was actually 2-0 SU/ATS against the Bears last season. The Lions were underdogs for both those games but won by nine at Chicago and by 10 here at Detroit. Interestingly, the Bears were also coming off a hard-fought (19-16) win over the Eagles, prior to that game. Looking back further and we find that the Lions are a healthy 13-5 SU (11-6-1 ATS) their last 18 home meetings with the Bears. QB Kitna, who is expected to play, has had particular success vs. the Bears since becoming a Lion. In four games against Chicago (as a Lion) he has thrown for more than 1000 yards and has had five touchdowns without an interception. The Bears, who may be without leading receiver Brandon Lloyd, have seen three straight games come down to the wire, all of them decided by four points or less. Although they managed to upset the Colts in a game which had a total of 43, the Bears are still an ugly 4-18 SU the last 22 times that they played a road game where the total ranged between 42.5 and 45 points. The Lions know this is a huge game. A loss and the season is pretty much a complete write-off. However, with a win here, they’ll be right back within striking distance in the NFC North. I’ll take all the points I can get, but I look for the Lions to rise to the occasion and win this game outright. *NFC North
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #26 on: Today at 09:32:44 AM »
Ace-Ace
$400.00 Take ‘Under’ 44.5 Chicago at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
The ‘under’ is 5-2 in Chicago’s last seven road games. I think that Detroit is going to “get back to basics” after their bye week and I look for them to commit to the running game. I also think that they will shore up their defense in the time off and that they won’t get blown out like they have in their first three games. This game features two teams that both employ the Tampa-2 defense, which is supposed to minimize big plays. Also, this is a key game for both teams that could change the direction of both seasons. I expect it to be close and to stay in the 30’s.
$2000.00 Take Denver (-3) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) -110
The Broncos come home after an upset loss and should regroup nicely. This is a very young, inexperienced Denver squad and I think that they are going to be affected more drastically by playing at home versus on the road. Tampa Bay is coming off a pretty emotional home win over Green Bay, but they had trouble with the Packers passing attack.
$300.00 Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Indianapolis at Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
Also Houston +3 for $300.00 +104
We are going against the squares with this selection, as everyone expects two big offenses to put up all kinds of points. However, both teams move the ball well enough to keep the chains – and the clock – moving. I also don’t think either team stops the run particularly well so look for both teams to keep it on the ground. Many of the games in this series have gone ‘over’, so I am looking for the books to overcompensate and for us to collect with an easy ‘under’.
$800.00 Take Buffalo (+1.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +104
People continue to doubt the undefeated Buffalo Bills. They are undefeated on the season, and if they can win in Jacksonville I think they can win out in the desert against a Cardinals team that has only beaten bad teams like Miami and San Francisco. Arizona is also probably going to be without some key contributors, as Anquan Boldin and Adrian Wilson are both just 50-50 to play. Buffalo is 13-4-2 ATS following an ATS win and I think they keep it rolling.
$2000.00 Take Washington (+6) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
I don’t think that Brian Westbrook is going to play this weekend, and if he doesn’t then look for the Redskins to make it back-to-back divisional wins on the road. Even if Westbrook does suit up, he won’t be 100 percent and the Eagles are not the same team without him in the lineup. The Redskins have covered seven of nine games in conference play and they are 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven against the Eagles. The road team has been the play in this series, winning six of nine games outright. I think the points hold up.
$400.00 SWEETHEART TEASER: Take Washington (+16), Take Vanderbilt (+14.5), and Take Kansas City (+19.5) -480/400
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Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
« Reply #27 on: Today at 09:35:43 AM »
Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
5 Chargers at Dolphins: I’m not sold that the Dolphins have turned things around after one stunning blowout win at New England. This is still a young, rebuilding team with a lot of holes and inexperience. The Chargers were not impressed with the way they beat New England, with trick plays and overshifts on the offensive line. “Gimmicky,” cornerback Quentin Jammer said. The Chargers have spent time each day this week preparing to face the Miami Dolphins and their highly successful version of the single-wing offense. The Dolphins call it the “Wildcat” offense, and they scored four touchdowns in six snaps against the Patriots. The key in this game is the Chargers versatile, wide open offense against a weak Miami ‘D’. This offense is No. 8 in the NFL and scoring a ton of points through the air and the ground. The Chargers are 13-4 SU/ATS as a favorite under Norv Turner. Miami doesn’t have strong wideouts and and QB Chad Pennington has just 2 TDs, one pick in 3 games. They won at New England with the ground game, but the Chargers have a speedy secondary and can focus all their defensive effort in stopping the run and blitzing, something they did a lot of in the second half last week at Oakland. The Dolphins are 1-7 SU/ATS their last 8 in Miami. Play the Chargers.
3* Chargers/Dolphins over: Both defenses are ranked in the bottom half of the NFL, with the Chargers at 28th. The defense gave up 26 points to Carolina and 39 at Denver. At least the offense is loaded, ranked 8th in the NFL, with a great offensive line, plus QB Philip Rivers has 10 TDs and 4 picks, alongside RBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. They toasted the Jets in a 48-29 rout. Miami has defensive deficiencies that can be exploited by an good offensive mind like Norv Turner. Miami’s offense is much better this season, with a stronger offensive line, a capable, veteran QB in Chad Pennington, plus RB Ronnie Brown. The Dolphins are 17th in total defense with a very young unit. Look for a lot of scoring, play the Chargers/Dolphins over the total
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over 1 year ago top dollar (GOLD MEMBER) said ...
Dr. Vegas
Cincinnati vs Dallas
Here is a game of teams going in opposite directions. Cincinnati is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, while Dallas is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS.
The Cowboys thus far have fared better on the road than at home. They managed a 4-point home win against Philly on 9/15 and lost by two to rival Washington last week. Of course being at home against one of the few remaining winless teams promises to give the Cowboys a bit of relief after last week’s loss. What’s worse than being 0-4 for Cincinnati is that they lost to the 0-3 Browns last week.
Looking at the exclusive Dr. Vegas Power Ratings, we find Cincinnati with a dismal -26.1 mark. Their opponents’ rating is +16.9. Dallas comes into the game is +2.7, with an opponent rating of +11.6.
The Bengals have nothing going for them, ranking at or near the bottom of the NFL in numerous categories, such as total offense (31st in the NFL). It also remains to be seen if QB Carson Palmer will return, and will his elbow allow him to be effective if he does. The only thing they have going for them is that they have nothing to lose, and Dallas could be thinking ahead to next week’s game against Arizona.
The line on this game is 17, which of course can change. But looking at that number and going back to 1985, there have been 22 games with a line of 17. The ATS record on those games is 9-9-4. But the total has gone over 16 times, nearly 73%.
So we’ll pass on the side, but take this game over the total of 44.