Comments by top dollar
DUNKEL
Minnesota at Memphis
The Grizzlies look to build on their 3-0 ATS record at home when the total is listed between 190 and 194 1/2 points. Memphis is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3 1/2).
Game 701-702: Boston at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 124.349; Charlotte 117.971
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 6 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 10; 179
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+10); Over
Game 703-704: Houston at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 118.799; Philadelphia 118.291
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 181 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 705-706: Washington at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 112.940; Orlando 129.741
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 17; 180 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 12; 190
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-12); Under
Game 707-708: Minnesota at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 111.337; Memphis 118.550
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 7; 189 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 3 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3 1/2); Under
Game 709-710: New York at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: New York 113.255; Oklahoma City 115.070
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2; 213 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 2 1/2; 220
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+2 1/2); Under
Game 711-712: LA Clippers at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 109.801; Dallas 121.307
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 11 1/2; 189 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 14 1/2; 180
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+14 1/2); Over
Game 713-714: Sacramento at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 108.989; Chicago 115.543
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 6 1/2; 204 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 8; 209
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+8); Under
Game 715-716: New Orleans at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 123.678; LA Lakers 129.227
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7; 195
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+7); Under
NCAAB
LSU at Utah
The Tigers take their solid defense (59.1 points per game allowed) on the road, but face a Utah team that is 4-0 ATS against good defensive teams (<=64 points per game). Utah is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Utes favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Utah (-5).
Game 717-718: Connecticut at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 73.548; West Virginia 78.674
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 5
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-2 1/2)
Game 719-720: Ohio State at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 65.536; Michigan State 74.015
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+10 1/2)
Game 721-722: Georgia at Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 58.700; Georgia Tech 64.721
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 6
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+8 1/2)
Game 723-724: Miami (OH) at Dayton
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 62.048; Dayton 70.255
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 8
Vegas Line: Dayton by 6
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-6)
Game 725-726: Rhode Island at Toledo
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 64.438; Toledo 55.511
Dunkel Line: Rhode Island by 9
Vegas Line: Rhode Island by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+10 1/2)
Game 727-728: Brown at Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 48.719; Virginia 62.649
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 14
Vegas Line: Virginia by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-15 1/2)
Game 729-730: Northern Iowa at Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 58.610; Creighton 67.279
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 12
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (+12)
Game 731-732: Villanova at Seton Hall
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 69.168; Seton Hall 60.616
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Villanova by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-6 1/2)
Game 733-734: TCU at Texas Tech
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 56.087; Texas Tech 62.870
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 7
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+9 1/2)
Game 735-736: Illinois State at Bradley
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 62.232; Bradley 61.928
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+2 1/2)
Game 737-738: Alabama at Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 60.217; Clemson 75.689
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-13 1/2)
Game 739-740: Texas at Arkansas
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 70.820; Arkansas 68.957
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2
Vegas Line: Texas by 5
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+5)
Game 741-742: Purdue at Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 67.236; Penn State 67.433
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Purdue by 3
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (+3)
Game 743-744: UTEP at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 61.656; New Mexico 67.687
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 6
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 8
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+8)
Game 745-746: LSU at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 62.015; Utah 69.524
Dunkel Line: Utah by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah by 5
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-5)
Game 747-748: Siena at Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 63.675; Kansas 73.064
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+11 1/2)
NHL
Chicago at Phoenix
The Blackhawks are coming off a 5-2 victory over Calgary and look to build on their 10-5 record after a win by 2 goals or more. Chicago is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-130).
Game 1-2: New Jersey at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.932; Carolina 12.596
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-130); Under
Game 3-4: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.289; Washington 10.826
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-150); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+130); Over
Game 5-6: Minnesota at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.435; Boston 13.212
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-230); Over
Game 7-8: Ottawa at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.311; Buffalo 10.770
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+180); Under
Game 9-10: Columbus at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.540; Detroit 13.582
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-285); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-285); Over
Game 11-12: Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 10.283; Pittsburgh 9.470
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-230); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+200); Over
Game 13-14: Florida at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 10.440; Toronto 11.674
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-130); Under
Game 15-16: Colorado at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.727; Nashville 10.699
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+115); Over
Game 17-18: Chicago at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.885; Phoenix 10.819
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-130); Over
Game 19-20: Los Angeles at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 10.486; Anaheim 12.386
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-155); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-155); Under
Game 21-22: San Jose at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.992; Calgary 11.751
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-140); Under
NCAAF
Game 265-266: Ball State vs. Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 93.882; Tulsa 88.604
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 5; 84
Vegas Line: Ball State by 2 1/2; 76 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (-2 1/2); Over
Sports Gambling Hotline
Ball State vs. TULSA – at Mobile
Talk about getting a tired hand, expect the scoreboard operator at Ladd-Peebles Stadium to be reaching for the Aleeve from all of the scoring that is going to be going on in this game.
You want offense? You have it tonight!
You want turnovers? You will have them tonight as well!
Prior to their MAC Championship Game against Buffalo, Ball State had been averaging 38-points per game over their final 5 games of the regular season.
Tulsa, prior to their Conference USA Championship Game against East Carolina had been averaging 45.5-points per game over their final 6 games of the regular season.
With quarterbacks Nate Davis, and David Johnson both looking for a little redemption after shaky conference title games, expect these teams to flourish on offense tonight.
Play on the OVER in the GMAC Bowl this evening.
4♦ OVE
Brian Hansen
Los Angeles Kings at Anaheim Ducks
Prediction: Anaheim Ducks
Having recorded shutouts in each of their last two games versus the Kings, the Ducks try for a third straight victory over Los Angeles on Tuesday night in the opener of a home-and-home series between the southern California clubs. Anaheim is 12-8 its last 20 when playing against a team with a losing record; play on the DUCKS
Alex Smart
Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Bobcats Over 178.0
The Bobcats are an extremely inconsistent team, that has shown spurts of cohesiveness this season. The visiting Celtics find themselves in a slump , after an early season 19 game win streak, and have now lost 4 of their L/6 and are off a lazy lackluster effort against the Knicks last time out losing a 100-88 affair.
Boston will be in a bounce back mode and bring their A game to the court tonight against a Bobcats team that has given some problems in recent meetings, as was the case when Charlotte beat them 95-83 at the Garden last January.
The Celtics because of their current funk, will be in a nasty mood , and come out firing on all cylinders. The hyped up Bobcats will have no choice but to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown of the court. Im betting the Shamrocks show little mercy here this evening and pile up the score in merciless fashion, while the cats, fire in away with a back door advantage. This scenario will see more than enough points going on the board to burst the number.
I am not interested in backing the Celtics via a DD spread, but the Total looks very beatable.
Final notes & Key Trends: Over is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 vs. Eastern Conference. Over is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 games following a SU Win.
Play OVER
JIM FEIST
SACRAMENTO KINGS /CHICAGO BULLS
Take CHICAGO BULLS
Sacramento doesn’t have much at either end of the court. The Kings allow 105 ppg, which is third worst in the NBA. This is also a terrible situational handicapping spot, playing their 4th game in 5 nights—all on the road! Throughout the season, opposing defenses have focused on containing the Bulls’ potent backcourt of Derrick Rose and Ben Gordon. The duo accounts for nearly 40 points a game and each is converting better than 45 percent of his field-goal attempts. However, the Kings don’t have backcourt depth or defensive skills. A good spot for the rested home team that needs a big win. Play the Bulls
Matt Rivers
For Tuesday take the points with the Kings.
Sacramento is not a very good basketball team anywhere and especially not away from Arco. Plus the Kings are on the tough back-to-back after the game last night in New Jersey but right now Chicago is a total disaster and for da Bulls to be laying a dozen plus to anybody right now is just silly.
In the begining of the season I really thought that Vinny Del Negro’s team was going to be much improved after a last few disappointing seasons and were ready to rebound behind a total Rookie stud in Derrick Rose. These guys teetered around the .500 mark for the first month or so but have regressed to the dog with fleas category over the past few weeks.
Chicago just looked awful at the United Center as a similar favorite against a similar skilled opponent to Sacramento in Minnesota dropping to 14-20 overall after losing their sixth game in their last seven. I just don’t see why anything will really improve all that much here as Drew Gooden and Luol Deng are still banged up and Deng is out for sure.
The Kings may run out of gas late but I’m really not sure sure that these Bulls can capitalize on much in any scenario right now. Mush is mush and da Bulls are mush!
Scott Delaney
Today’s Selection
Play the Lakers over the Hornets tonight, as we come in off a push with Colorado in college hoops last night.
New Orleans on a West Coast trip mixed with a sizzling Lakers team that has now won six in a row after Sunday’s blowout win is the right combination for a blowout win over rival-Portland.
The Purple and Gold will dominate tonight, getting revved up for a Western Conference conteder they’ve dominated the last few meetings – including the first two of this season.
And both of those games were in the Big Easy. But, the Lakers had no trouble winning by an average of 10 points per win.
L.A. has won by double digits in three straight now, defeating Golden State, Utah and the Blazers by an average margin of 14.7 points per win.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Bobby Maxwell
UConn (pk) at WEST VIRGINIA
The Huskies are definitely the play here as they rebounded from their first loss of the season with a blowout of Rutgers on Saturday, winning 80-49 as a 21 1/2-point favorite. UConn will go to West Virginia and deliver us a winner.
UConn has scored at least 75 points in every game this season with the exception of their loss to Georgetown and a narrow 68-64 win at Buffalo. On defense, the Huskies have held eight of their 13 opponents to 58 points or less.
Dating back to 1999, the Huskies are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS against West Virginia and they are 3-1 SU and ATS in Morgantown.
West Virginia is just 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 Tuesday contests and UConn hasn’t been much on the road, including 8-18 ATS in its last 26.
Look for a balanced scoring effort from the Huskies tonight as they move the ball and get the job done in West Virginia. Play UConn.
2♦ UCONN
Mike Anthony
Ball State vs. Tulsa
Play: Tulsa -2
We are not sure of what the logic is that places this game mixed with the major BCS showdowns, but at least the folks in Mobile got themselves a matchup that brings some entertainment. The drama comes from Ball State being undefeated into December, but now having to play without head coach Brady Hoke, who has moved on to San Diego State. It might not even be a lateral move for him, but he seemed savvy enough to realize that this past season was as good as it is ever likely to be in Muncie.
With veteran Stan Parrish stepping in the Cardinals should not tactically miss a beat, but there are some psychological issues after those big dreams got turned around vs. Buffalo.
Meanwhile Tulsa also brings a bitter memory to the table, with steady QB David Johnson throwing five interceptions vs. East Carolina in the Conference USA title tilt, after he had a ratio of 42 touchdowns vs. only 13 picks all season coming in.
But the Golden Hurricanes do bring positive memories from this venue, their 63-7 thrashing of Bowling Green in this same bowl LY, and we believe the speed and precision of their offense can find some operating room against a Ball State defense that put up good numbers, but lacked quickness. Tulsa has more talent and seems to win the turnover battle in each game. PLAY TULSA!
Dr. Vegas
GMAC Bowl – Ball State vs Tulsa
Ball State went 12-0 in the regular season, losing the MAC Championship to Buffalo. Some say that Ball State didn’t put forth the effort, but in fact they did beat Buffalo in many categories, such as First Downs, Total Yards, Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, and Time of Possession. They outplayed Buffalo in many ways, but the final score didn’t reflect it. Buffalo took advantage of several key turnovers.
Tulsa is another team that led the Conference but lost the championship game, in their case to the East Carolina Pirates. And just as Ball State did, Tulsa actually won many key categories in this game, including First Downs, Total Yards, Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, and Time of Possession. It was a close game decided by a late field goal.
So here we have two teams, conference leaders, who lost the championship in games they actually could have won.
Tulsa covered 6 of their first 7 board games, then Vegas adjusted and they lost 4 of their last 5 against the number, for a 7-5 ATS mark on the year. Ball State was a little more consistent with 4 ATS losses sprinkled amid their 8 ATS wins. Ball State scored 476 points and gave up 242, while Tulsa scored a whopping 616 and gave up 378. The games in which Tulsa played averaged a total of 76.5 points, considerable higher than Ball State’s 55.2 average.
Vegas opened this game with Ball State -2.5. As of this writing, it has moved to Ball State -1.5 with approximately 8% more of the public playing Ball State. Everyone is focused on the tight line and expecting a close game. What I immediately noticed is the total, which opened at 75 and now at 76.5.
Not once this season did a Ball State game pass 76. Five times this year Tulsa’s games surpassed that mark, but even those have circumstances to consider (such as the 62-34 drubbing of Central Arkansas).
I’ll give an opinion play on Ball State, but my free pick on the game is the play it under the total.
Jimmy The Moose
Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals
Prediction: Over
The over is 14-6-1 in the Flyers last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record. In their last 13 games played with 2 days rest between action the over is 10-2-1. Philadelphia has played over the total in 6 of their last 7 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The over is 7-2-1 in Washington’s last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. Atlantic Division opponents. The over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between the clubs. Play the over
Brad Diamond
Play on: Charlotte + over Boston
The record breaking Celtics started at 27-2, but can’t consistently put together a solid run. After a 1-3 SU road swing, the Green got up on the horrid Wizards and won going away this past Friday. However, the Celtics lost last time out to the restructuring Knicks at MSG, 29-6! Descending Bobbies have lost three of four and simply don’t matchup with the Celtics, especially with the visitor in a pissed off mood. However, we note the UNDERDOG IS 11-0 ATS in the series
Dave Cokin
Alabama @ Clemson
Play: Clemson -13.5
Tough spot for Bama. The Tide aren’t exactly carrying the reputation of road warrior into Littlejohn, which is even tougher than usual these days with the Clemson program red hot. The SEC is very beatable this year, and I can’t see an untrustworthy Crimson Tide squad being able to hang in with the Tigers, who often aren’t shy about running it up. Clemson minus the points is the choice
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Utah Utes
A key non-conference clash tips off at the Huntsman Center in Salt Lake City Tuesday night when the Utes play host to the Bengals. Utah has made a living hosting non-confeence foes, especially so in games when the visitor is not off a double-digit loss, going 23-1 SU and 19-4-1 ATS in this roles. With LSU playing its first true road game of the season, look for the Utes to add another ‘W’ to their tally sheet here tonight. Lay the points with Utah
Wild Bill
Under 77 Ball St-Tulsa (5 units)
Ball St defense will be the difference in this tilt with a new coach taking the helm with a very good QB in Davis vs another good QB for Tulsa, however, Ball St has played a much better schedule and should prevail 34-24.
Only one small nhl play yesterday for me, which lost. Back in a bit with my card today
One play of my own today:
Pittsburgh +115 over NYR small
Contest – Texas by 19
GL. Back later
THE GOLD SHEET
FIESTA BOWL
OHIO STATE (10-2) vs. TEXAS (11-1)
*Texas 30 – Ohio State 16—Intriguing psychological angles color this battle between two of the nation’s most storied programs. One-loss Texas is ticked off after getting “BCSedâ€? out of a spot in the championship game by rival Oklahoma despite a straight-up win over the Sooners in October. Does an impressive Fiesta victory give the Longhorns claim to at least a share of the national title, à la USC in 2003? Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are eager for an opportunity to reassert their “manhoodâ€? after being emasculated by Florida & LSU in the last two BCS championship games.Although many observers seem to see the essence of the on-field matchup as a simple tussle between the top-10 offense of Texas (476 ypg) vs. the top- 10 defense of Ohio State (allowing only 279 ypg), the decisive factor in this game might end up being the Longhorns’ underrated stop unit. Sure, the Buckeyes have the most accomplished RB in slammin’ jr. Beanie Wells (121 ypg rushing TY). And, according to Columbus insiders, OSU has recently been working on some wrinkles that put athletic true frosh QB Terrelle Pryor & pocket-passing sr. Todd Boeckman, the former starter, on the field at the same time. But we believe the speed & quickness of the Texas defensive front 7 will prove too much to handle for the slowish Buckeye OL.While Wells & Pryor might occasionally break free, UT’s penetrating sr. DE Brian Orakpo & jr. LB Sergio Kindle (combined 19½ sacks & 28 tackles for loss!) are going to blow up lots of plays in the OSU backfield and limit the Buckeyes to “3-and-outâ€? on many possessions. The majority of sustained drives are much more likely to come from the Longhorns and their star jr. QB Colt McCoy (78%, 32 TDP, just 7 ints.). He has the accuracy & patience to eventually wear down the stingy OSU defense—which allowed more than 21 points only once so far this season—and give Texas a decent shot at covering this substantial (but not unfair) impost.
Wild Bill
Ohio St +10 1/2 (5 units)
Texas is not a good bowl favorite and this field is geared for the underdog the past few years. Remember Boise vs Oklahoma? Remember Pitt winning big in this one? Pryor & B Wells will be the difference here along with some defensive pressure Colt McCoy has not seen in a long while. OSU defense much better than the likes of Okie State, Tx Tech or Oklahoma…Ohio St pulls off the upset 34-31…
Over 53 1/2 Ohio St-Texas (5 units)
NELLYS GREENSHEET
Texas (-9½) Ohio State (53½)
Ohio State has had some ugly national losses in recent years but most of those games came against SEC teams and Texas is a team that Ohio State is familiar with as these teams played in 2005 and 2006 en route to BCS championship game berths for the respective victors. Texas can make a compelling case to be in the BCS championship game this year having defeated Oklahoma in a neutral site but that may actually hurt the Longhorns if any focus is taken away from facing the Buckeyes. This is the fifth trip to Arizona for Ohio State in the last seven years after being a Fiesta Bowl regular and the offense should be starting to come together with plenty of time to prepare with Pryor at QB. Texas has put up big numbers this season, scoring at least 28 points in every game this season but they also have not faced a top notch defense this year. The Big 12 had plenty of quality teams this season but Oklahoma’s 65th ranked total defense was the toughest faced all year. Ohio State allows just 279 yards per game, eighty yards superior to OU’s numbers and checking in at 8th nationally and allowing just 13 points per game. Texas features the best Big 12 defense however with particularly strong numbers against the run. Ohio State is not a great offensive team and most of the damage starts with RB Wells and the mobility of Pryor as the Buckeyes passed for just 148 yards per game on the year. Ohio State’s offense will have a hard time scoring a lot of points in this match-up the Buckeyes have proven they can win in ugly games but Texas has the speed to expose some weaknesses that have shown up big games against athletic teams. Big underdogs generally do fairly well in the bowl season but backing Ohio State has some risks with the many big game failures and the questionable strength of the Big Ten. If Texas had its schedule laid out a bit differently they would likely be undefeated and the Longhorns will be out to show they deserved better this season.
TEXAS 31-21
RATING 1: TEXAS (-9½)
RATING 1: ‘UNDER 53½’
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
Texas over Ohio State by 6
Anger management counselors everywhere would do well to tune in to this matchup. Both squads come in royally pissed and would love nothing better than to gain some major retribution on a national stage. In the case of the Buckeyes, they’ve got egg on their face from getting whipped in the last two BCS title games (both losses to SEC teams) – not to mention a humbling 35-3 destruction at the hands of Southern Cal earlier this year. The 11-1 Longhorns have their own ax to grind after being passed in the fi nal BCS rankings by Oklahoma (a team that Texas beat on a neutral fi eld, 45-35), thereby losing out on a chance to play for a national title thanks to the Big 12’s ridiculous decision to use those ratings as the ultimate tiebreaker in a conference logjam. If you’re one of the many who got burned by the Buckeyes in BCS defeats against Florida in ’06 and LSU in ’07, we’ve got three words for you: forget about it. When we finished crunching numbers with our trusty database, nearly all the ‘play on’ systems came out Scarlet and Gray. Ohio State is 40-5 SU and 27-15 ATS in its last 45 games (covered 8 of 9 since the September loss to USC!) and Big 10 Bowl dogs that allow less than 23 PPG are 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS versus Big 12 opponents. Jim Tressel’s team has also gone 23-7 In The Stats the last 4 years and the stingy OSU defense has held 16 foes to season low – or 2nd low – yardage over the past 2 campaigns. Need more? Tressel is 45-13 SU against .600 or better foes and this year’s squad is the fi rst Buckeye team to ever beat Michigan 5 years in a row. Mack Brown’s Longhorns look a lot like the 2004 Auburn squad that went 11-0 only to earn a No. 3 slot in the BCS polls (beat Va Tech in the Sugar Bowl, 16-13, as 6-point chalk). Texas is a mere 3-10 ATS lately as a Bowl favorite (1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS off back-to-back SU wins) and Brown himself owns a weak 10-21 spread record when laying points to an .800 or better adversary, including 1-12 ATS playing away or at a neutral site. The fi nal nail in Bevo’s ATS coffi n comes courtesy of Ohio State being a 17 Returning Bowl dog of 4 or more points: those teams are 6-1-1 ATS since1990 if they own a win percentage of .800 or greater. Texas QB Colt McCoy has gotten his fair share of ink this season but we think you’ll be surprised by the accuracy and athleticism of OSU freshman QB Terrelle Pryor. In what should be one of the more entertaining Bowls this year, look for Ohio State to improve its Fiesta Bowl record to 4-0 ATS and provide a New Year’s ‘bailout’ for Buckeye bettors.
LOGICAL APPROACH
Fiesta Bowl
Ohio State is back in another BCS Bowl but this is not the BCS Title game where the Buckeyes lost one sided games to Florida and LSU the past two seasons. Texas arguably could be in the BCS Title game this season but the BCS computers ranked them behind Oklahoma, giving OU the chance to beat Missouri in the Big 12 Title game and advance to play for the BCS Title which the Sooners did. Texas may have the mindset to prove that they belonged in that Big 12 Title game. After all, they did defeat OU during the regular season. The Longhorns might well want to roll up the score if given the chance. Ohio State is down this year from last despite expectations that they’ve be stronger. A QB switch early in the season did not have the dramatic impact expected. In Ohio State’s biggest tests of the year – at USC and home against Penn State – they scored just 3 and 6 points while allowing 35 and 13. This is an interesting contest from a statistical standpoint as Texas’ # 9 offense (476 ypg) will face Ohio State’s # 8 defense (279 ypg). The opposite matchup is of fairly average units with Ohio State’s # 79 offense (340 ypg) challenging Texas’ # 50 defense (340 ypg). Yet the Texas defense might be better than those stats suggest considering the many high powered Big 12 offenses they faced this season. Texas’ defensive weakness, versus the pass, may not be able to be exploited by what was a weak OSU pass offense. The Buckeyes averaged just 148 aerial ypg, # 104. Interestingly, Texas has the better rush defense allowing just 74 ypg (# 2) while OSU allowed 115 ypg (# 20). Texas’ rush defense also fares better when measured on a per rush basis by .9 of a yard. Both teams are well coached but OSU’s recent struggles in big games begs the question of whether the overall level of talent in the Big 10 is way down compared to other conferences. Ohio State and the Big 10 in general have struggled against more athletic, speedier teams and they’ll be facing another such team in Texas. Until such time as OSU can again win a big game against an elite foe we must conclude that there is a significant difference in the overall caliber of athlete. With Texas having a point to prove – and outside chance of being voted # 1 by the AP should Florida and Oklahoma not impress in the BCS Title game – the call is for Texas to distance itself from Ohio State, breaking open the game in the second half.
Texas wins 34-14, making TEXAS a 3 Star Selection and the UNDER a 2 Star Selection.
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP
FIESTA BOWL
The teams have met recently (‘05 & ‘06) with the road team winning both as QB Young led UT to a 25-22 (1’) win which paved the way for a National Title. In ‘06 the #1 Bucks beat the #2 Horns in rFr McCoy’s 1st start vs a BCS D (59% 154 yds 1-1 ratio). This is OSU’s 5th trip to AZ s/’02 (3-1 SU/ATS) and their 7th BCS app (4-2 SU/3-3 ATS). UT has one Fiesta Bowl app in ‘96 (lost 38-15, -1 to PSU), but is 2-0 (both wins by a combined 4 pts) in BCS gms. Tressel is 4-3 SU/ATS in bowls with lopsided losses in the L/2 BCS title gms.After starting out his career 8-2 SU vs Top 10 tms (7-3 ATS), Tressel is now on a 0-4 SU/ATS run. Brown is 11-6 in bowls (8-9 ATS) & has guided the Horns to the postssn every yr at the helm (7-3 SU/4-6 ATS). OSU went 0-2 ATS as a dog TY (vs Top 5 USC & PSU) & UT was 3-1 as an AF (3-0 as DD AF). OSU is 15-4 ATS on the road including 4-1 TY with 5H LPS winners over Mich St & NW (‘08 GOY BLOWOUT!). OSU went 5-2 SU/3-4 ATS vs bowl teams outscoring those foes by an avg of 26-16 and outgaining them 331-296 & UT was 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS (+21 ppg +105 ypg). OSU is 8-1 ATS on grass the L3Y (0-3 ATS in domes, roof maybe closed) & UT has the turf advantage playing their HG’s on it (2-1 SU/1-2 ATS under Brown in domes). The Bucks & Horns each have 9 senior starters and 15 upperclassmen in starting roles. #3 OSU entered ‘08 with Tressel’s most experienced team yet with 19 returning starters incl 6th yr QB Boeckman. OSU lost stud RB Chris Wells to a foot inj in the opener which sidelined him for 3 gms (including USC) and D’s loaded the box. The result was the implosion at USC in which OSU actually had the 1H ydg edge (177-172) but trailed 21-3 after having 2 TD’s called back and Boeckman’s late 2Q pick six left them demoralized. Both QB’s played and afterward Tressel decided to go with the frosh. Pryor threw 4 TD passes in his 1st start and won his first 5. He scored the game winning TD at Wisky but also had a costly fmbl on a QB sneak vs Penn St. Wells had seven 100 yd gms despite seldom being 100%. The rec corps’ numbers shrunk due to the QB change. Ex-OSU coach Earl Bruce called the OL ‘underachievers’ as the line ret’d 3 Sr starters yet allowed 26 sks (10.7%!). OSU went to a more athletic C, true frosh Brewster, and shuffled the line trying to find the best combo. The offense is #26 in our rankings. Defense remained OSU’s strength (#3) led by AA’s LB Laurinaitis and CB *. The DL play improved thanks to the move of ex-LB Gibson to DE and a solid year by DT Abdallah. The Bucks finished #7 in pass eff D. OSU’s numbers did fall in many categories from ‘07 (83-115 rush ypg, 43-24 sks) though they improved in forcing TO’s from 19-28. The Bucks annually have one of the NCAA’s best ST’s and this year finished #3 led by Big Ten leader PR Small. Texas had one of its most dominating tms TY & played in what Brown called “the toughest stretch in UT history� when they took on 4 tms ranked in the Top 11 eventually losing the last one on the gm’s final play. Brown is the only active 1A HC to guide his tms to 9 wins in 12 consec ssns. The Horns outscored opp’s by 25 ppg & outgained them by 137 ypg. TY, UT’s #7 off ret’d 7 starters, but had to replace its top RB & WR and QB McCoy was coming off a “soph slump�. McCoy reverted back to his Fr ssn earning 2nd Tm All-B12 honors & was named Walter Camp POY and a Heisman finalist. He is #3 in the NCAA in pass eff. The WR duo of 2nd Tm All-B12 Shipley & Cosby are solid weapons. The OL avg 6’5� 308 (1 Sr starter) paving the way for 177 ypg (4.4) allowing 22 sks (5.7%). 2nd Tm All-B12 C Hall missed the final 2 reg ssn gms, but should be back close to 100%. 1st Tm All-B12 OT Ulatoski anchors a solid unit. The #4 def ret’d just 4 starters from LY but improved allowing 7 ppg & 31 ypg less than LY. UT has 44 sks (#1 NCAA) with 27 coming from the DL (61%). That unit avg 6’3� 271 (4 Sr) allowing just 74 ypg (2.8) which is #2 in the NCAA. They are led by B12 Def POY Orakpo who won the Hendricks, Lombardi & Nagurski Awards. UT is ranked #18 in our pass eff def allowing 266 ypg (57%) with a 18-6 ratio (82 PD leds B12). Longhorns are ranked #12 on ST. 2nd Tm All-B12 K Lawrence has a strong leg & the tms 40.2 net punting ranks #4 in the NCAA. 2nd Tm All-B12 KR/PR Shipley has a TD ret on each. UT has a solid 5 kick block ratio. Texas and QB McCoy are the chic pick here as their offense topped 28 pts in every game and they topped 42+ in 8 games. Ohio St does it in the trenches with RB Wells and the mobile QB Pryor but their D has led them here as they’ve all’d 1 opp to top 21 pts and held 6 opp’s to 10 pts or less. When you match a quality D against a quality offense, we will side with the Buckeyes stop unit that could have as many as 10 potential NFL’ers on it.FORECAST: OHIO STATE (+) BY 3
RATING: 3* OHIO ST
THE SPORTS MEMO
FIESTA BOWL
Ohio State vs. Texas -9.5 O/U 53.5
Recommendation: Under
POINTWISE
FIESTA BOWL
TEXAS (11-1) vs OHIO STATE (10-2)
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Texas …....... 47.9 …44-19 … 27-18 .. 177- 74 …300-266 .. + 3 . Texas
Ohio St …..... 47.2 …28-13 … 17-17 .. 192-115 …148-164 .. +15 . by 5.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
For the first time in 3 years, the Buckeyes of Ohio State are not a part of the BCS Championship contest. Sure, atonement would have been nice for the Bucks, after a pair of one-sided losses to Florida & LSU in the ‘06 & ‘07 title matches, in which they were outscored by combined 79-38, but it wasn’t to be. OhioSt ranked a consensus #1 on the “Polls” column of our initial issue this season, with no less than 18 starters from LY’s 11-2 team, including QB Boeckman, who ranked #13 in passing efficiency in ‘07 (2,372 yds, 64%, 25/14); & RB Wells, who ranked #11 in rushing (1,609 yds, 15 TDs). And how about 9 starters from LY’s top-ranked “D”? But, whereas the Bucks not only won consistently the past 2 years (23-3), but also dominated ATS (16-9), their wins this season weren’t all that impressive. As a matter of fact, they stood at just 2-6 vs the pts, before covering their last 3. At season’s end OSU ranked just 79th in total “O”. Pryor (62.5%, 12/4) replaced Boeckman, & a healthy Wells is always trouble. But their opponents here, the Longhorns of Texas, rank #2 vs the run, allowing just 7 overland TDs. Texas, of course, has been the #1 victim of this year’s BCS debacle, as its only setback came on the “play of the year”, when TexasTech clicked on a 28-yd TD pass in the final 0:01, to take the Steers, 39-33. Led by McCoy (77.6%, 3,445 yds, 32/7) who has thrown for 9,318 yds & 83 TDs the past 3 years, the Longhorns have averaged 44.5 ppg over their last 15 games, & that includes a 52-34 pasting of ArizonaSt in LY’s Holiday Bowl. Note that the Devils were allowing only 22.5 ppg entering that one. Have to go back to the ‘02 Fiesta to find last time Bucks have been pegged this big a dog.But the Steers have the horses to do this up right. PROPHECY: TEXAS 40 – Ohio State 24 RATING: 1
Matt Rivers
For Monday take the points with Wofford.
South Carolina is a very talented and dangerous team this season. The Gamecocks will not be the doormat of the SEC like in some previous seasons because they return a ton of talent with Devan Downey, Zam Frederick, Dominique Archie and others. But Wofford is not that bad at all and the ‘Cocks are in a tough tough spot today.
South Carolina just had a great upset win in Waco over a quality Baylor group on Friday night. Sure that will instill some more confidence for Darrin Horn’s 10-2 squad but now getting up for a 4-5 team named “Wofford” is going to be difficult for the SEC team.
But don’t be fooled as the Terriers are not terrible and better than their below .500 record indicates. Yes I’m not a fool and did see they just lost to Navy and were blown out by 50 against Clemson earlier in the season but these guys also took Georgia to overtime on the road in a one point loss and beat what is a bad Air Force.group this season but still a Division one club that boasts some talent.
Junior Salters and Noah Dahlman lead a visiting team that will treat this game as the National Championship. On the opposite end the ‘Cocks just cannot be too pumped up for this one. SC obviously should get the W but in a pedestrian letdown effort they will struggle a little in an 8-10 point final.
Bobby Maxwell
Indiana at DENVER -8’
The Nuggets are still playing some great basketball and they have won three straight and five of their last six. Now they are at home against a bad Indiana team and we’re going to go ahead and lay the chalk with the Nuggets to win this one by 15 at least.
Denver was crushing a very good Hornets’ squad on Saturday 77-51 but had to survive a late rally by the Hornets and eventually won the game 105-100. Six Nuggets reached double figures in scoring, led by Carmelo Anthony’s 22 points.
They are 12-4 at home this season and this is game two of a seven-game homestand. The Nuggets have won five of the last six meetings with the Pacers and Anthony has averaged 30 points a game in his last seven against Indiana.
And this is the start of a five-game road trip for the Pacers who are just 5-12 on the road this season, and that includes winning three of the last four.
Denver has covered the number seven of the last eight meetings with Indiana and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 against the Eastern Conference. The Nuggets are also 5-1 ATS in their last six after getting a day off and 19-7-1 ATS as a favorite of 5 to 10 points. Let’s play Denver to win this one and get us the cash.
4♦ DENVER
Jeff Benton
Georgetown at NOTRE DAME -2
Scored yet another free winner Sunday, as the Lakers, courtesy of a dominating second half, blew out Portland. I’m now on a 34-16 run with freebies, and we’ll look to continue that streak Monday as we switch to College Hoops and back Notre Dame minus the points against Georgetown.
We’re getting some pretty good line value here, thanks to the Fighting Irish’s tank job at St. John’s on Saturday. Facing an inferior opponent that was coming off three straight double-digit losses to Virginia Tech, Miami (Florida) and Providence, Notre Dame got caught in the classic look-ahead situation and stumbled 71-65. It was just the third time all year that the Irish had failed to score at least 74 points and just the fourth time they had been held below 81 points.
Now, they do run up against one of the nation’s better defensive teams in Georgetown. However, the Hoyas got exposed a bit in Saturday’s 70-54 home loss to third-ranked Pitt, as they couldn’t put the ball in the basket (the missed 33 of 51 shots) or control it when they did miss (they managed just 17 rebounds to 43 for the Panthers). This is also an incredibly brutal spot for G-Town, which started Big East play with last Monday’s game at second-ranked UConn (74-64 upset win), then played the third-ranked team in the country on Saturday and now hit the road again to face the No. 7 team in the land.
In fact, the Hoyas are in the midst of a stretch of playing five teams in the Top 13 in a six-game stretch (they have current #13 Syracuse and #5 Duke, along with Providence, between now and Jan. 17). Conversely, while they Irish have faced a pair of Top 5 opponents in Texas (win) and North Carolina (loss), they haven’t played a ranked foe since the day before Thanksgiving.
Notre Dame is in a real revenge spot here (four straight losses to Georgetown), and I think it got a much-needed wake-up call with that loss at St. John’s and will show up raring to go against the Hoyas. After all, the Irish have been a strong bounce-back team of late (5-1 ATS in their last six games after a defeat and 4-0 ATS in their last four after an ATS loss). Lay the small price with the home team in what should be a very entertaining contest.
3♦ NOTRE DAME
Karl Garrett
Kent +8 at TEMPLE
Not so sure I want to back the Temple Owls right now, especially minus this big number.
Fran Dunphy’s team has hit the skids, losing their last 3 both straight up, and against the spread. 2 of the losses came by double-digits, so you would think that laying close to double-digits tonight is not the wisest move, as the G-Man can see the Owls stopping the bleeding, but not doing so in convincing fashion.
Kent brings a 7-6 mark into this one, and while it is true they just played Hampton, and Shawnee State to “pad” their mark a little, I have to believe those last 2 “practice” sessions will bode well when playing at Temple tonight.
Look for this game to stay fairly close all the way, making the Golden Flashes plus the points the play in the City of Brotherly Love tonight.
1♦ KENT
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Here is my card today:
Carolina -115 over New Jersey
Phoenix +110 over Chicago
Buffalo & Ottawa under 5.5 -105
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